Newspoll: 55-45

Perhaps to mark the first anniversary of the Rudd government, The Australian has come good a day early with the latest Newspoll. It finds Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45, from primary votes of 42 per cent for Labor (down two) and 38 per cent for the Coalition (steady). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings are his best since early May: his approval is up two points to 67 per cent, while his disapproval is down one point to 20 per cent. Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister is up two points to 42 per cent. However, 56 per cent of respondents said they would be “concerned” if the budget went into deficit.

UPDATE: Graphic here.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week. Also included are leadership approval and preferred prime minister ratings and, interestingly, retrospective evaluation of John Howard, whose prime ministership is rated above average by 47 per cent of respondents and below average by 24 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. “i can actually find things that ALP Prime Ministers have done that is good for Australia”

    That’s because Labor does undoubtedly good things for Australia. As opposed to the coalition.

    🙂

  2. Glen – it’s all this extremism that you’re creeping toward, and yet it’s based on the relativism of comparison with your ideological heroes.
    It’s terribly schoolboyish and illogical.
    There are fools on all sides. My debating you probably puts me in that category too.

    Oh, and following your points to Soctates – your desire for a media performer in the Treasurers job highlights your preference for style over substance.
    Pulling the levers – give me a break… on his own? (…in a dark dungeon, by the light of a candle, wearing nothing but a hessian sack…)

    Out of interest – what would it take for you to change you opinion of Costello?
    What is Greenspan’s cheer squad up to now?

  5. I’ve become tired of all the glorification(!) of Costello as Treasurer.

    Over the years there have been heaps of reports that he didn’t have a clue and Treasury bods had to virtually teach him by rote to answer media questions.

    His biggest asset was supposedly his QT appearances. I viewed them as the act of a bully – sometimes comically clever, but mostly full of spite and bile.

    I notice he ran a deficit in 2001 – and from then on it was just laziness and a matter of watching the money splashed around on nothing substantial.

    He doesn’t come even close to our greatest Treasurer.

    Swannie is growing in the job and I, for one, do not want to go back to a Treasurer full of smirks and clever remarks. I want a bloke who is taking the job seriously and who is listening to advice.

    Would love Turnbull & Co to be a little less desperate in their attempts to convince us that we hate Rudd. Heard Paul Bongiorno on RN the other morning saying that Turnbull can’t stand the thought that anyone but himself is PM. And therein lies all of Turnbull’s problems.

    I have enjoyed Kev’s first 12 months. Lots of little things are being done that never get into the media – probably because they don’t want us to hear of them.

    I heard a bloke on the radio this a.m. answering a shockjock doom merchant who said Rudd has done nothing. Bloke said his son has his laptop on his desk, his business is doing better because Labor has protected his apprentices with Workcover, his interest rates are down, and a few other things. Stupid RW shockjock said “I didn’t know any of that” – derrrr!! Poor sod probably is too lazy to do any research before his program which may point out why Labor is the favourite.

  6. Glen – what Onimod said.

    Treasurers have to be more than figureheads to be competent when times are tough. Treasuries can still get ignored by bad governments or treasurers. Consider all the times the previous government ignored treasury advice, or didn’t even seek it, in their desperate run for reelection.

    BTW Glen, the fact I included Kerin in the list of past bad treasurers shows that my remark was not entirely partisan. Rudd was no genius running the Qld public service either, but he is doing better this time around.

  8. BH probably a Labor hack…each party puts members on the job to call up radio stations…

    Being able to conduct yourself well with the media and in Parliament is necessary as Treasurer but dont think that is the only precondition i have, Swan is not up to the job…

  9. [BH probably a Labor hack…each party puts members on the job to call up radio stations…]

    So interest rates aren’t down, computers aren’t being put in schools? Come on Glen, you can do a lot better than that.

  10. We should not over interpret the poll on the possibility of a deficit. The question was about how concerned you would be with a deficit and you would expect the answer to be near 100%. Of course we would all be concerned with a deficit, but would you feel more concerned with no deficit but a mortally wounded economy?

    People will always be concerned with this but it says nothing about their support for government using a deficit to keep the economy functioning, fighting unemployment etc. This is why I mentioned before that I thought Swan and Rudd were playing a bit of politicis and mind games with this issue, continuining the surplus no deficit line (if possible) which has genereated concerns and calls from economists and the RBA. In the end people will see the Govt do it as a last resort and after publically made calls for them to do it.

    The Opposition will be on a hiding if they in the oppose a deficit if and when one occurs because they would have to explain their choice of the alternative (if the media were to be honest about it that is).

    Rudd’s personnel support is strengthening all over the place but we don’t yet see it in the TPP. I still think Labor will be strengthening in the polls.

    We all have a good idea what tactics Turnbull and Co should be using I think, but hey, I’m not stop them whilst they are making mistakes.

    I would also like to note that Swan beat Turnbull when he was Shadow Treasurer and the polls showed that putting Swan ahead of Turnbull.

  12. Glen – even if it was a party hack the shockjock should be on top of his game and know what has or has not been done. I am tired of the media dealing in 1/2 truths about any party be they Labor, Lib or anyone else.
    Wouldn’t it be lovely just to have the facts presented without the constant need for drama.

    I still disagree with you about Swan – doesn’t he have a pretty heavy Economics degree? Didn’t he very successfully organise and distribute funding for Queensland Labor a few years ago.
    Just because we have been used to firstly Keating and his grand flourishes (which I BTW loved) and Costello and his bignoting smirkiness doesn’t mean that we always have to have Treasurers who carry on like Grand Dames.

    Swan and Tanner as FM are making a very good fist of it regardless of what Malcolm Turnbull & Co think. I wouldn’t trust Malcolm as far as I could throw him – he appears to be grimy underneath where Costello was gutless.

    Even I wish that Costello had had the smarts to try for the top job – for all his smirkiness I do not think he is as grimy as Turnbull.

  13. Wasnt Swan afraid of confronting Costello on his 2004 budget?? Latham said he was quaking in his boots and had to get Bowen to do it for him lol!

    Swan is a low flyer…until Labor gets Tanner in their the ALP will still be way behind the Libs on economic credibility…

  14. TP @ 60 – excellent post

    Though I disagree with the thinking that what we have seen from MT so far gives us some idea what tactics he will use in the future. This rubbish from him is just for now, I have no doubt tactics will change and MT will indeed put Rudd to the test

    I’m confident Rudd is up to that test

  15. [Latham said he was quaking in his boots and had to get Bowen to do it for him lol]

    Latham said a lot of things…

    [until Labor gets Tanner in their the ALP will still be way behind the Libs on economic credibility…]

    With Bishop as shadow? hahahahahaha

  16. Glen – if that happened then it was 4 years ago. We all learn and grow, or should do.
    Come to think of it – wasn’t Swan away on that day?

    I reckon that Tanner is in the right place. He has the toughness to make the right cuts and to not be swayed by crying Ministers.

    My kids in PS in Canberra say that some of the waste has been pretty awful over the past few years in their workplaces. Tanner has called a halt to a lot of that so the taxpayer will in front there.

    Hurry up broadband – I’m still on slow dialup as wireless is a no go where I live (too many obstructions). So I’m off to the telly to see Julia do her piece in QT.

    Didn’t watch Turnbull at the Press Club spot he booked for today (didn’t wait for an invite!!). Couldn’t bring myself to listen to how wonderfully well he would be handling the GFC in place of Kevin. If anyone watched can they give us a quick summation.

    Will check in later.

  17. Awww, I only caught the end of Turnbull blathering on and carping at the government. Hasn’t he learnt that rather than simply criticise the government, he needs to advance his own policy?

    Some people never learn…

  18. [
    Swan is a low flyer…until Labor gets Tanner in their the ALP will still be way behind the Libs on economic credibility…
    ]

    Only amongst those with no economic literacy.

  19. Thanks for the tip (tip, get it? bahahaha ) Glen but honestly, we on the winning side (that huge, unprecedented in NP history winning side) are pretty happy with “our Kev’s” picks. 😀

  20. 63 – you’ve fallen off the rocker now mate.
    Still, that you think Swan isn’t up to the job, and that I think you’re not up to the job, are both pretty meaningless.
    Maybe you should define economic credibility and we could go from there?
    I guess you could always try the (McCain) experience argument?

  21. The McCain experience argument sounded much like the Howard experience argument.

    We all know what happened to that poor chap…

  22. Agree wholeheartedly with GP @ 13.

    “Turnbull should immediately dismiss Bishop as Treasury spokesperson. Secondly, a policy document would not go astray.”

    My recollection is that the ALP was consistently behind in the polls until they actually formulated viable alternative policy positions and then, under Beazley, made up a lot of ground on the back of that. Rudd came in, did it more and better (there was also the fact he didn’t have Beazleys record of gracious concession speeches), and the Coalition were unelectable offal.

    Bishop is way out of her depth, at best another Tip who hasn’t got a clue, and Turnbull just doesn’t seems to get that he’s not the PM. Saw Kroger on Lateline a couple of days ago arguing that Turnbull’s commercial experience makes him suited for these times. What rot! Its Turnbull’s ilk amongst the money men and dodgey bankers that actually created much of the financial crisis in the world today.

    On the subject of Turnbull and his credibility, does anyone know if and when he gets to front the courts on his alleged involvement (through Goldman Sachs) in the HIH collapse?? Will be interesting to see what his numbers in the PPM stakes look like during and after that.

  23. Hasn’t he learnt that rather than simply criticise the government, he needs to advance his own policy?

    Na, cant agree with that. His job right now, is to criticize, niggle away at the edges and generally get on the news where he can. No leader, at this stage of the game would be putting policy out

  24. Oh FFS, these Melbourne pensioners are STILL not Happy.

    [About 200 pensioners have gathered at the Melbourne Town Hall to demand an increase in their payments.

    The Government is giving pensioners a one-off payment of $1,400 next month, but they say it will not be enough to cover the rising cost of living.

    Seniors groups want the Federal Government to increase the pension rate from 25 per cent of average weekly earnings, to 35 per cent.

    The Council on Ageing spokeswoman Patricia Reeve says pensioners are struggling to survive.

    “Some people are talking about a $30 a week increase and that’s just not enough that won’t make the difference that’s required,” she said.

    “The other thing is Government has many calls on it. We’re asking a whole community to say to the Government it’s time to do something about pensions.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/24/2427801.htm?section=justin

  25. Ricky Stewart left out his secret weapon in Saturday night’s League World Cup final.

    Malcolm Turnbull has the best sidestep I have ever seen bar none. He would have untouchable with the ball.

    At the Press Club address, I didn’t see him answer “one” question and that after slamming Rudd for failing to answer questions in QT in Parliament. WOW, what a class act.

    The whole address was an attack on Rudd and occasionally Swan. Malcolm, people want to know what “you” stand for. After that effort we are no more informed than we were yesterday or the days and weeks before.

    Whoever is advising Turnbull & his mob of non-performing colleagues should be replaced immediately. This was like a campaign address a week before an election and trailing in the polls.

    This has to be classified as another golden missed opportunity to outline policy and strategy which differentiates the “so-called” alternative government from the incumbents. A definite “F” for fail on this one I am afraid.

  27. i sat through Turnbull’s Press Club speech and believe it or not i didnt get the slightest bit irate, if today is the best he can do then he’ll never pull the libs out of the abyss they’re currently inhabiting, the whole speech was a self aggrandasment tirade about how omnipotent he was, watching this mobile ego at work was hilarious, how could anyone take him seriously after today? only the most rusted on lib would be impressed, he brushed off any searching questions afterwards, Paul Bongornio was correct then he said Turnbull just couldnt tolerate anyone but himself being PM.

  28. [On the subject of Turnbull and his credibility, does anyone know if and when he gets to front the courts on his alleged involvement (through Goldman Sachs) in the HIH collapse??]

    I thought that was conveniently settled out of court soon after Turnbull became leader.

    [The Council on Ageing]

    How many different fronts does the Liberal Party have? That’s like the 7th organisation apparently representing pensioners I’ve heard about.

    I wonder if I get 200 old people to get their clothes off in front of town hall the government will spend $6 billion on renewable energy.

  30. Googled Turnbull and HIH after i posted that, and last article i could find indicated that it was back in court 18 December this year as there are prospects that it could be settled out of court.

  32. [KEVIN Rudd has been a failure since his election 12 months ago, according to a majority of respondents to a Daily Telegraph online poll.]

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

  33. [Anyone know what happened in the Venezuelan elections?]

    No result yet as far as I am aware, but there was a massive turnout so it’s looking like Chavez may lose some power

  34. [No result yet as far as I am aware, but there was a massive turnout so it’s looking like Chavez may lose some power]

    Bit of a depressing result either way, I think. Shame the choice is between a party with authoritarian tendencies and corrupt gangsters.

  35. [Paul Bongornio was correct then he said Turnbull just couldnt tolerate anyone but himself being PM.]

    The same, I think, goes for the Liberals as a party. They just cannot tolerate anyone but themselves being in government. This is evident in their churlish anger, which they’ve displayed since Rudd burst into the game as Opposition Leader when they saw their grip on power threatened. The constant spite and smear indicates a born-to-rule mentality. The mantra which they use to console themselves, “Rudd is a one-term wonder” likewise.

    Like their greedy RW constituency they cannot come to grips with the fact that they cannot and will not have it all to themselves.

  37. Excellent responce by Jonathon Green to the whole Obama puppy thing:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/jonathan/2008/11/24/the-trig-perplex/

    [We deserve our lumps here. There was no redeeming – or even comic – feature to what is just a dumb slur on an innocent child. The galling part of course, is giving ammunition to the billious rabble of the blogging far right. But what can you say when you’re so obviously in the wrong. Other than “I was wrong.” Which I was.]

    Fair enough. Boycott over. 🙂 (Geez am I a hard marker lol – but then I figure why punish myself for someone else’s stupidity. And besides, I can hardly claim to have never said the wrong thing. And in this case I believe it was a dumb oversight/error, rather than one of malicious intent.)

    Isn’t it amazing how a simple, sincere apology works wonders…

  40. 60% of those surveyed in that Telegraph poll admitted to being Fib voters lol!

    [ The survey didn’t cover a representative cross-section of the electorate and about 60 per cent of respondents did not vote Labor on November 24, 2007.]

    Sky nooze poll says 54 % say Rudd has done badly in first year. Just a guess here but i’d say the same 60% Fib voters have been busy again.

  43. Thanks Judith re the Press Club today – I watched Graham Morris and Tim Gartrell on Sky Agenda and it got a bit of a mention. Spears, of course, trying to build Turnbull up but the others not agreeing too much. Morris gives Rudd Govt 8/10 for first 12 months which was a bit of a surprise.

    Can anyone put me right on the Bank guarantee. I was really pleased to have it unlimited but why is it supposedly putting a bigger strain on the mortgage market.
    Of course David Spears says that Turnbull’s brilliant financial brain should be utilised by Rudd but I thought Turnbull was criticising to protect his own interests.

  44. The poll on reactions to a deficit is a classic example of a Sir Humhrey appleby type question. For example:

    Q1 Are you worried if the budget goes into deficit?

    Q2 Would you prefer for the government to raise taxes, cut spending or go into deficit?

    Easy to get a negative answer when there is nothing to compare it to and only a negative connotation implied. Conversely the following question woudl be equally biased the other way:

    Q3 Are you in favor of the government acting swiftly to provide an economic stimulus package in the face of the global credit crunch?

    So you see, Sir Humphrey is alive and well and working for NewsCorp.

  45. Just watched “Agenda”. Apparently at the National Press Club Malcolm criticised Rudd for not answering questions in parliament then avoided answering questions himself. Good one Mal.

  46. [Just watched “Agenda”. Apparently at the National Press Club Malcolm criticised Rudd for not answering questions in parliament then avoided answering questions himself. Good one Mal.]

    I’m shocked I tells ya

  48. It sounds like many in the media may be starting to lose their besottedness with Turnbull. Perhaps it’s the consistently bad polling, or are they just getting tired of him?

  49. GB – was Graham Morris’ 8/10 for Rudd a surprise to you? He seemed to think more of Nelson’s stint in opposition than Turnbull’s.

    Anyone – why is the unlimited guarantee bad for the mortgage market?

  50. I’m kinda wondering why mo post @ 75 is still in moderation.

    I thought it was a pretty good wrap-up of the press club address & can’t see any “forbidden” words in it except the r word!

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