Morgan 56.5-43.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll has Labor’s two party lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5. Labor’s primary vote lead over the Coalition is 46.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent) to 37.5 per cent (up 1.5 per cent). Morgan also brings us qualitative research on voters’ “concerns” with the way the parties and leaders are going about their business. More attitudinal gear this week from Newspoll, whose thrice-yearly survey on issues and the parties best equipped to tackle them was published in The Australian on Wednesday

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

402 comments on “Morgan 56.5-43.5”

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  1. Bushfire Bill, a complete misrepresentation. My point was that I personally wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not based completely upon ‘fact’ but that I believe the events surrounding it should be brought to light.

    I also wouldn’t be surprised if Rudd or Rudd’s office leaked it in an attempt to spin the government as some big player on the world stage.

    The whole point is that the public should be presented with a full picture of the incident. If the Government has nothing to hide they will authorise the disclosure of the source of the story. If the story is not stemming from a government source the Australian will be forced to print as such and then the source will be irrelevant.

  4. Rupert gives a speech calling for an end to ‘subsidies for the well off’ and for a move to a republic… leaves the Liberal Party a bit out in the cold.

  7. The beat up wasn’t on either channel 7 News or Nine News tonight in Vic. That shows you how much credence they give it.
    Is parliament on this week?

  8. Bushfire Bill @ 197. It looks very much to me like an attempt to damage Rudd’s credibility internationally and domestically. It’s always had the ring of a lie. I mean why would Rudd, an ex-diplomat, someone who is working very hard to establish Australia as a powerful middle level player internationally, do something so unutterably stupid as to leak something damaging to Bush.
    Itep, Rudd should absolutely not do anything other than what he’s done which is to say the newspaper report is w-r-o-n-g. He should not speak publicly about the details of a conversation with Bush or any other national leader. What do you think would happen if all national leaders blabbed to the press about their negotiations with each other?

  9. ta grog
    the new spin is ‘The Federal Opposition wants the Australian Federal Police to investigate how a private telephone conversation between Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and US President George W Bush became the subject of a newspaper article’

    FFO 🙁

  10. [If the Government has nothing to hide they will authorise the disclosure of the source of the story.]
    They may not be able to authorise something that didn’t take place.

  11. Lead stories on ABC TV News is the cranky pensioner who isn’t satisfied with $1400 handout from the tax payers, to whom I say, O.K. dearie, how long do you think I had to work for your $1400. Kerist, I’m on pensioners’ side and I just want to slap her. I wonder what other tax payers might think might be thinking?
    And, of course, Uhlmann, on the story that won’t die, at least if he has anything to do with it. Disgraceful.

  12. So Rudd is that vain that he would put the government’s standing with other countries at risk tosatisfy his ego? Does that really ring true with anyone other than the most rabid Rudd haters eg AB? I agree HSO 207.

  13. HSO I never said he should reveal the details of a conversation with a foreign leader. I said he should authorise the paper to reveal who their source is if it comes from someone in his office. If it doesn’t come from his office they’ve got nothing to fear.

    I assume all these people who are claiming there should be no investigation or further questioning from the media also object the government investigating Cabinet leaks to the media. If so, they should condemn the Government for getting the AFP to investigate the Fuelwatch leaks a few months ago.

    It would also be helpful if the Australian were to print a correction to the story if they are in the knowledge it is completely false. In any case they ought to do some follow up.

  14. Gary Bruce @ 211

    It wouldn’t surprise me and I don’t ‘hate’ Rudd. I just understand he is a politician like any other.

  15. Itep, O.K., but as someone else pointed out Rudd doesn’t have to authorise the paper to do anything. Moreover, again it makes absolutely no sense for anybody from Rudd’s office to be the source of such a story. It would make them look dills, and unless they are contemplating a career move in a radical direction, such as the dole queue, there’s nothing to be gained and everything to lose.

  16. Steve @ 201
    Read the story in your link. I agree with everything Murdoch said in that story, I am sure there was a lot more which was not told and probably a lot I would not agree with.
    I like this bit.
    [quote]And at home, we must reform our 19th century education system, encourage full reconciliation among Aboriginal and white Australia and be open to immigration.[/quote]
    and
    [quote]In areas of trade, agriculture and [b]climate change [/b]we must lead the world, not follow suit.[/quote]
    My emphases.

  17. The story is pure fantasy written in the hope the hand wringers get excited which they did. Of course the general wont accept the story as it is totally opposite to their expereince with Rudd. It is the LNPand OO in desparation mode.

  18. 213 ltep – Can’t you see how stupid it would be politically for Rudd to go down that path? Rudd is many things but stupid he isn’t.

  19. TP @ 216. Log a complaint with the ABC. They are supposed to be impartial. This reporting all day from Insiders in the am, all day on RN radio news and this evening’s TV news, is really very worrying. If people can’t rely on the ABC, we’re in dangerous territory.

  20. [I assume all these people who are claiming there should be no investigation or further questioning from the media also object the government investigating Cabinet leaks to the media. If so, they should condemn the Government for getting the AFP to investigate the Fuelwatch leaks a few months ago.]

    That was where there actually was a leak. Both the Government and US says there wasn’t one in this case, so for what possible reason on the face of the planet should there be an AFP investigation in to it???

    [It would also be helpful if the Australian were to print a correction to the story if they are in the knowledge it is completely false. In any case they ought to do some follow up.]

    Good luck with that

  21. Itep, at great risk of being SNIPPED, you are such a drongo.

    You betray your real attitude in the second paragraph of your post:

    [I also wouldn’t be surprised if Rudd or Rudd’s office leaked it in an attempt to spin the government as some big player on the world stage.]

    You are so transparent, mate.

  22. This is a man who meticulously engineered an election win last election. He has worked in the PS and spent time around the diplomatic corp? If he doesn’t know what needs to happen no-one does.
    Nothing about this story rings true.

  23. So to be a big player on the world stage you embarrass the POTUS? Oh yeah, that makes sense doesn’t it? I think even Rudd could see the weakness in that argument.

  24. Every one, log a complaint with the ABC. I can deal with the O.O. being a liar for the Libs., we must not allow the ABC to be the same.

  28. [I assume all these people who are claiming there should be no investigation or further questioning from the media also object the government investigating Cabinet leaks to the media. If so, they should condemn the Government for getting the AFP to investigate the Fuelwatch leaks a few months ago.]

    But this is not a Cabinet leak, and the story has being denied. No one investigates stories that are factually wrong. What confidential secret was revealled? What information that is subject to Cabinter-in-confidence?

    I do condemn the Govt for the investigaiton into the leaks that have happened this year – cf the one dealing with The Canberra Times – the AFP raiding his house was way OTT. The best way to investigate leaks is how they dealt with the one done by Laurie Oakes earlier in the year. The AFP rang him, said who is your source, he told them to get stuffed. End of story.

  29. No 226

    They are not acting like one. They are reporting the accusations of the Liberal Party as part of their balanced coverage of both sides.

  30. I assume that the Courier-Mail story quoting Murdoch (Steve #201) is an advance of his Boyer Lecture. Bludgers may want to tear themselves away from the keyboard to watch the Dirty Digger on ABC1 at 10.15 p.m.
    Btw, the pensioner performing the Lady Godiva stunt was a disability pensioner. not an aged p.. I agree with the general tenor of reactions (earlier in the thread) to her dissatisfaction with the handout.

  32. Generic Person @ 224. I am unlikely to calm down. We face perilous times economically and in terms of the impact of climate change. If the ABC cannot fulfill the requirements of impartial reporting, it will cause huge doubt in the minds of those who rely on it, when for instance, we here in Victoria have a tinder dry place ready to go up in flames.
    If the ABC loses its reputation for impartiality, it loses everything, and we lose as well. It’s that important.

  33. No 231

    It is nowhere near impartial. Goodness me you have an uncontrollable outburst everytime there is a negative story about the Government. Please understand that we live in a democracy and criticism of the government is entirely legitimate. Spare us the feigned indignation.

  34. I agree Grog. I wouldn’t support a formal investigation into the story at all. That’s not to say the Government couldn’t press the newspaper involved to reveal their source.

    Bushfire Bill, I’m not sure what that comments meant to ‘portray’ apart from me not being blinkered into thinking Rudd’s the best thing since sliced bread. Most politicians at a high level are egotistical and keen to portray a strong image for themself in the media.

    HSO, the Government don’t need to authorise the paper to reveal a source but papers generally don’t like to reveal sources for stories unless it is with their permission, hence why governments need to get the AFP to push the media to get that information. However, the Government could say that it was not from Rudd’s office and that if the paper is alleging that it is they should reveal the source.

    As to the people saying Rudd’s office would not be stupid enough to leak such a story… the Government are still amateurs when it comes to handling the media and general tactics. I still think they bungled the promotion of their first budget and haven’t gotten themselves organised yet. The Opposition of course, are a complete shambles.

  35. Generic Person @ 232. You can accuse me of having “an uncontrollable outburst every time there is a negative story about the Government.”, however, I am just as likely to be critical of them when I think it justified. My indignation is not feigned; your constant ranting about “obscene” whatever it is, is just rubbish, in my view.

  36. 233 ltep – the problem with that, is then they would be forced to demand the same of any story involving any “leak”. I can;t see it happening.

    The AFP can’t do anything “infomally” so there’s no way they can “push the media” to get that information.

    And again – what crime has been committed? Why would the AFP be called in?

    You don’t get the AFP in because a story has been inaccurately reported. The RBA leak was more confidential, and I would be against the AFP being involved with that (internal RBA and Treasury ok) and ths would certainly be against the Govt having to ask the AFP to be invovled in this just to make a show of not being the leak.

  38. Grog I’m not suggesting the AFP do anything for this story. My comments were in relation to other occasions where the AFP have investigated media leaks. I already agreed the AFP shouldn’t be involved and questioned the Opposition’s attempts to paint this as a story crucial to ‘national security’. I also wonder why it’s Julie Bishop who’s saying these things and not Helen Coonan, who surely should be the shadow minister most concerned.

  39. I don’t buy newspapers, but I did today for the Cup formguide.

    They are saying in the Telegraph that Rudd has damaged our alliance with the US about what he is reported to have said about Dubya. If Rudd did not say it, The Australian newspaper is a disgrace.

    I’ll tell you who has damaged our future alliance with the US, Howard saying what he did about Obama.

    JOHN HOWARD MUST APOLOGISE TO BARACK OBAMA ON THE FRONT PAGE OF EVERY MAJOR NEWSPAPER IN THE COUNTRY IF HE WINS THE PRESIDENCY!

  42. Its more probable th alleged conversation nevber occurred so there is no leak to find

    Now if in th unlikely event such converaston did actualy occur it would not hav been leaked any more from George Bushs office as it would from Kevin Rudds because Leaders of all countries (and there trusted officials) hav treat conversations as 100% off limits for publication on security grounds

    So more likely this is a created ‘story’….history is littered with them intended to damage both th ‘left’ and/or th ‘right’ Rudd should (and probably will) just let it pass into historys dust bin as tomorrow there will new news & story will dies

  44. 237 – no worried ltep. My confusion.

    I don’t know why Julie B said it either… or why she would bother saying anything for a long while – I think her career is pretty much dead now.

    Every answer in question time to her should begin: ‘I thank the honourable member for her question, I wonder who wrote it for her…”

  45. Well, Itep, our alliance with the US is very relevant. Because Howard is no longer PM, does not excuse the offense caused to the future president of the US.

    And if the so called man of steel is man enough to apologise, he should say sorry to the Democrat Party as well. Howard is only too well aware of the importance of the US alliance therefore MUST say SORRY!

    How ironic. What a beauty!

  47. How is the opinion of a former Prime Minister of any relevance? It’s quite clear the current PM didn’t support the former PM at the time on those comments nor does he now.

    I note that Kevin Rudd hasn’t been so arrogant as to try and interfere in the US Presidential election openly. I can only imagine the reaction if he did so.

  48. Howard has nothing to apologise for re th US Alliance It is not damaged at all by howeards comments Hell it survived Gough’s ministers tearing into th US publicly

    anyway Howard did not even appologise to th Aborigines

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