Morgan 56.5-43.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll has Labor’s two party lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5. Labor’s primary vote lead over the Coalition is 46.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent) to 37.5 per cent (up 1.5 per cent). Morgan also brings us qualitative research on voters’ “concerns” with the way the parties and leaders are going about their business. More attitudinal gear this week from Newspoll, whose thrice-yearly survey on issues and the parties best equipped to tackle them was published in The Australian on Wednesday

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

402 comments on “Morgan 56.5-43.5”

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  3. The Narrowing – reminds me of the squillions of times conservative journalists (David Spears comes to mind) have declared Rudd’s polling honeymoon to be over – as early as a few months after he became opposition leader.

    Two years later, no sign of it yet!

  7. Once again Roy Morgan’s comments are bizarre. Referring to a qualitative poll done on 15/16 October, in his quantitative poll taken on 18/19 and 25/26 October, he makes the comment: “The greatest concern for the Government though must be the fall in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating to a 17-year low of 87.3 (see http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/809/). Australians are increasingly worried about the year ahead and reluctant to maintain spending.” But in that same quantitative poll he fails to mention that the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 128 points, rising from a low of 107 in July.

    He then offers his usual gratuitous advice: “To improve Australians’ confidence the Rudd Government must take further policy action to offer hope to Australia’s more than 1.3 million unemployed and ‘underemployed’* by cutting corporate taxes so Australia’s business’ can start hiring again.” He should stick to analysis of his poll results.

  8. Just had a look at the first parliamentary day of Rudd becoming Labor leader @ http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/reps/dailys/dr041206.pdf

    Anyone remember Howard being reduced to his “No. *JH sits down*” answers, because he was unable to elaborate on the issue for fear of being wedged in to a corner?

    Mr RUDD (2.20 pm)—My question is again to the Prime Minister. Does the Prime Minister agree with comments by former Governor of the Reserve Bank, Ian Macfarlane, made in the Boyer lectures, that a lasting legacy of the economic management in the early 1990s was that ‘Australia had an inflation rate that was in line with world’s best practice; we had returned to being a low-inflation country’? Prime Minister, hasn’t the government’s failure to address skills shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks resulted in core inflation now rising above world’s best practice, with real implications for the cost of living for Australia’s working families?

    Mr HOWARD—No.

  10. ltep @ 9

    Can you elaborate on that bizarre comment?

    Rudd doesn’t do it, and Howard never did it prior to Rudd’s ascendence.

    He was unable to elaborate on issues for fear of being wedged in to a corner.

  11. I’ll provide you with an example direct from Hansard:

    “Dr Nelson —Mr Speaker, I raise a point of order. The question to the minister is: are Australian workers going to be worse off as a result of his government’s policies—yes or no? “

  12. Why is it that people like Dovif and right leaning bloggers, particularly those on Bolts and Ackerman’s blogs think that decisions like the bank guarantee decision are made by Rudd and Swann without any advice whatsoever from the Treasury or indeed for that matter the Reserve Bank? What intelligence do these people possess?

  14. [Peter Williams, managing director of Equity Trustees, said the guarantee scheme would completely restructure the local financial market, as it had not been thought through prudently.

    “(The guarantee) has the ability to completely reshape the competitive balance between investment funds and banks in the Australian financial services market,” he said.]

    Dovif if the funds are so weak that their investors want to get their funds out then they are absolutely in dire need of a reshape of the competitive balance.

  15. ltep @ 11

    The opposition asking for a straight yes or no? Old as time itself. The government (PM in this case) giving a “No” without the opposition demanding it? Howard with Rudd as opp leader. Check Hansard.

    And Howard did not do it before Rudd. He did it during Rudd’s time when his patience wore thin with Rudd’s piercing questions.

  16. Enjaybee, especially when it was explained to the Liberals in an eight hour estimates committee last week. They basically asked the same question all day, got the same answer and came out of estimates mouthing the same nonsense that they did before asking the questions.

  17. [And Howard did not do it before Rudd. He did it during Rudd’s time when his patience wore thin with Rudd’s piercing questions.]
    I can’t remember him doing it to Beazley, Latham and Crean.

    But I agree with you that he seemed to do it more often last year when things were going poorly for the Government. I guess it was the ultimate way to answer the Dorothy Dixers, instead of letting Rudd get some more free publicity.

  18. [I can’t remember him doing it to Beazley, Latham and Crean.]
    Sorry! I meant to say I CAN remember him doing it to those other Opposition Leaders.

  20. My recollection is that in the first sitting after the Coalition was elected in 1996, all (or nearly all) Opposition questions were met with a yes or no. Then they spent the next few weeks asserting that they had made the parliament more accountable, as many more questions were being answered.

  21. [Rudd’s insolent questions did not require a proper response.]
    Yeah, I mean it’s only Parliament, you know, the place where the populace is represented by elected officials.

  22. i bet Rudd is shaking in his shoes with that 1% drop in the polls, Shanahan will be gleefully rubbing his hands together shouting “Turnbulls coming to get Rudd, he’s right behind him, Rudd’s on the way out”, so i take it this looks like the honeymoon is finally over.

  24. Questions Without Notice, 15 February 2007. Joe Hockey, cagey about data showing what was happening to pay and conditions under SerfChoices …

    [Julia Gillard: My question is to the Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. Isn’t it a fact that the only reason the minister will not use his power to direct the OEA to provide statistical information—not personal details, but statistical information—on what is happening to wages and conditions under the government’s AWAs is that the government does not want Australians to know the truth? Minister, how can you justify this cover-up?

    Joe Hockey: No.]

    http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2007-02-15.41.1

  25. GP, so insolent, he was on record polling, and won the election ending his 11.5 year reign.

    Careful GP, your rust spots are showing.

  26. Judith Barnes @ 21, what planet are you on? Read above. The honeymoon is yet to end.

    Current Newspoll:

    Rudd 59% Preferred PM, 44% primary, 54% two-party.

    Turnbull 25% Preferred PM, 36% primary, 46% two party.

    Not to mention Roy Morgan recording 56.5-43.5 and Essential recording 61-39.

    Dream on Judith Barnes, dream on.

  28. “Sharemarket confidence in Australia won’t be repaired for a while yet”

    Dovif from an earlier thread.

    But we have had three straight days with the Liberals not talking down the sharemarket and had three consecutive rises. If only the Liberals can maintain this newfound discipline there is hope for the future.

  30. I believe it was Swan not the Liberals who said the Inflation Geni was out of the bottle steve. Rudd also called it a rolling national security issue…so lets not point the finger entirely at the Libs.

  31. I’m not talking ancient history Glen, modern history since early September, the Liberals haven’t had a good wood to say about anything on economics and are far more helpful when they don’t. The last Parliamentary session was spent bashing, Ken Henry, Stevens, Swan and Rudd. Any pretense of Liberal economic responsibility has been discarded.

  33. PMSL, Bob, i was being sarcastic, i’m a dyed in the wool complete lefty laborite as most here can tell you, still it’s quite funny that i fooled someone, hmmm maybe i could go in the Bolt/Albretchson blogs and take the micky out of them, cheers to you Bob, Judy.

  34. Glen @ 29 I find it sad you think that Labor and not the Libs can only be blamed.

    The Liberals talk down the economy, Labor makes a big issue out of it. Both much of a muchness.

  36. If you are so convinced that they have spoken well of the Australian economy since September let me know because I haven’t been able to detect any positives from them. The Liberals have been ranging from negative to neutral at best.

  38. I never said that i simply said if you are going to blame the Libs the ALP made just as many comments about the state of economy that the Libs can hardly share all the blame!

  39. Glen, you are just going to have to adjust to the new reality. The polls will be there to remind you how they are being received by the voting public.

  48. GP, what did William tell you about using the word ‘obscene’?

    You’re a sucker for punishment. No wonder you support the Liberal Party.

    *zing!*

  50. oh dear, the death penalty has raised it’s ugly head again, it’s been dominating the late night talkback radio the last few nights, obviously the Bali bombers plight has ressurected it, i do think that Rudd could be far more forceful in his protestations, i know we have no power over the laws of another country but Rudd could be firmer in his statements, at least it has no chance of it being bought back here, i find it interesting that Bush, who with Howards help, took us into a war with Iraq that slaughtered thousands of innocent civilians, should have in his home state Texas the highest toll of executions, if it would bring one victim back i would be the first one there to press the button, it wont so thats a moot point.
    very few of the murder families i’ve mixed with are pro the death penalty and that includes Bali victims, i’ve noticed that those who are the most vocal pro’s are quite happy to let someone else do their dirty work for them so they can keep their hands and conciences clean
    rant over, sorry for going off topic but it’s been eating into me for a few days.

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