Morgan 56.5-43.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll has Labor’s two party lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5. Labor’s primary vote lead over the Coalition is 46.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent) to 37.5 per cent (up 1.5 per cent). Morgan also brings us qualitative research on voters’ “concerns” with the way the parties and leaders are going about their business. More attitudinal gear this week from Newspoll, whose thrice-yearly survey on issues and the parties best equipped to tackle them was published in The Australian on Wednesday

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

402 comments on “Morgan 56.5-43.5”

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  1. +1 to everything Judith said.

    Interesting about Japan and America, both have extremely low interest rates yet their currencies are killing us.

  2. I can see the OO headlines now: ‘Turnbull calls for Raven Master Rudd to give up on Swann and get some crows.’ This would be coupled with a learned ornithological article by Shanahan reporting that Rudd can’t tell the difference between a Raven and a Swann.

    “Four extra ravens are being drafted into the Tower of London because of the financial crisis – to prevent a 350-year-old curse coming true. King Charles II decreed there must be at least six ravens otherwise a disaster would strike the nation and the Royal Family. And up to now, bosses have kept just one spare bird in residence to act as a ‘super sub’. But with the UK facing credit crunch meltdown, they ruled an extra four must now be acquired … Raven Master Derrick Coyle, 64, said: ‘I believe in the curse. It was said that if the number ever fell below six, the Tower would fall and great harm would befall the nation. We certainly feel more secure now’.” (The Sun, October 27)

  4. Indeed Oz it is not an interest rate problem in those two countries but a confidence problem. Nothing much can be done until confidence begins to grow. It is going to have to start with the banks being confident in lending to each other, then to business and eventually the General Public. It is a very fragile situation that needs to be nurtured with a bit of goodwill.

  5. Confidence will not begin to be restored until the Liberals cease talking the economy down (while accusing others of talking the economy down).

  8. I still reckon “confidence” should be higher in our financial sector considering a grand total of 0 companies have collapsed or been bailed out.

  9. Oz not when you have an opposition saying and doing anything to try to talk Australia into a recession. Luckily it will probably as successful as everything else they have attempted this year.

  10. In a crisis of confidence, confidence is king. The more the Liberals induce loss of confidence by their negative words, the longer this meltdown will continue.

  11. And the fundamentals of Australia compared to the US are clearly much stronger as the RBA Deputy governor told us yesterday. The RBA actually did us all a favour by increasing rates earlier this year and giving themselves plenty of breathing space to both lower rates to stimulate the economy and subdue inflation in the future. I have yet to hear any Liberal agree that it was the right thing to do.

    By comparison the US and Japan have very little room to move compared to what the RBA has to work with.

  12. Hah, on this note, Alan Wood is on crack.

    [the instability continues in local financial markets that appeared, before this decision was announced, to have established a reasonable equilibrium.]

    He’s acting as though the global financial markets have stabilised and it’s only Australia that’s gone down and that happened after the guarantee.

    [The pattern of relative interest rates reflected a distribution of risk pricing between banks and various non-bank institutions such as mortgage funds and cash management trusts that seemed to meet investors’ differing appetites for risk.]

    Yeah and what happened to interest rates? The banks and non-bank institutions lowered them specifically citing the guarantee. I feel like we’re going around in circles.

    [According to Malcolm Turnbull: “The main lesson from the Rudd bank deposit guarantee fiasco is that bad economic policies – even policies that are implemented ‘decisively’ – only lead to uncertainty. They create nervousness and fear, lead to further indecision and inflict great economic damage.”]

    I like how he cites Malcolm Turnbull as some kind of independent economic analyst Doesn’t even bother to attempt to verify whether any of that makes any sense.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24578188-5013578,00.html

  13. From the ABC web site:

    [At least 15 fund management companies have frozen investments to stop people from moving their money to institutions covered by the Government’s deposit guarantee. ]

    All the management companies have to do is toe the line and apply for listing as (regulated) banks. That they will not shows that they want to have their cake and eat it too. Clearly they cannot cut it as “banks”. It’s time their investors woke up to this reality – the institutions in which they have invested are run by smart-alicks in sharp suits out for a buck sucked out of the older generation – instead of blaming the Rudd government for their woes.

    That chap who claimed to have “$5” left in his personal bank account the other day was a case in point: he had to borrow $50,000 to pay his quarterly BAS committment! His wife and his kids were in on the scam too! I say “Good Riddance” to these wankers and their get-rich-quick, tax evasion schemes. The sooner our country ceases being a captive to the manipulators and their shock-jock mates in the media, the better. A high risk investment is just that: high risk. The Battlers should not be forced into bailing them and their money manipulation schemes out.

    It’s not every mortgage holder in Campbelltown who has to cry poor because he doesn’t have $50K handy to pay his quarterly BAS bill. VERY poor money management, I’d say, if all your loot (plus your family’s), including cashflow money, is invested in high risk funds. Typical low rent, small business types who think they’re Jamie Packer because they have a few K “in the funds”. Meanwhile Turnbull got his money out in quick time, LOL… what kinds of mugs are these people to think the Ordinary Joe gives a damn about them and their slick money?

  14. “I still reckon “confidence” should be higher in our financial sector considering a grand total of 0 companies have collapsed or been bailed out.”

    I think the issue is confidence in the prospects for economic growth. I don’t think anyone’s expecting a bank or insurance company to fall over – in fact, far from it.

  15. “The more the Liberals induce loss of confidence by their negative words, the longer this meltdown will continue.”

    Bushfire, you obviously attribute a lot of influence to the Liberals.

    Interesting …

  16. “But we have had three straight days with the Liberals not talking down the sharemarket and had three consecutive rises. If only the Liberals can maintain this newfound discipline there is hope for the future.”

    Steve, a genuine question for you: do you really believe the Liberals’ utterances drive daily movements in the share market, or are you just taking the mickey?

  19. No 66

    Rubbish steve. Only perterbed lefties are under the delusion that the Libs are talking down the economy or acting irresponsibly.

  20. [Rubbish steve. Only perterbed lefties are under the delusion that the Libs are talking down the economy or acting irresponsibly.]
    I don’t think it matters what the Libs do. They sit on the wrong side in parliament.

    They may as well pretend to write chapters in books for all I care.

  21. J-D, thanks for the links, i’ve had quite a lot to do with murder families and most feel the way i do, when i’d give my talk every semester to the police victimology class, peter, the head of major crime and the course convenor, would prompt me to give my views on capital punishment just to get it across to the young guys that we have a legal system not a justice system, its not perfect but for now thats all we have and as it should be, the victims idea of justice isnt neccasarily an eye for an eye, i’ll be interested in looking into these links further, i do get a bit concerned of being caught up with the religious right movements when it comes to American groups, a few crackpot groups here have tried to rope me in wanting to use my media profile but i’m too wary for that, i cant afford to show extremism or gild the lily while i’ve been relied on at times by the police to get the message across.

  22. GP, so there would be no difference between the real world and the Liberal Party website would there?

    [But the fundamentals do matter. And when you run through the fundamentals relevant to the Australian economy they suggest we are better placed than most to deal with the global negatives… The economy will grow somewhere in the low 2’s over the next year or so. Unemployment will rise as a result. But inflation will slow. It may be a weakish result by our standards. But it is not a recession. And it will look pretty good relative to many other economies.”]

    http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/10/no-economist-can-explain-whats.html

  24. GP, you didn’t happen to find anything economically responsible or positive on the Liberal Party website by any chance? Me either.

  25. ShowsOn, Peter van Onsalon’s publisher isnt a happy chappy with all the plaigerism etc, she’s very vocal here, P.v.O would be better off sticking to Abbott, his ideas might be way out but at least they’re his own, P.v.O. could collect all of Abbotts weekly rantings from his columns, bind them and sell them as an original book, dunno who’d want to read them but at least no one else would admit to being their author.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/publish-and-be-damned-20081030-5emf.html

  26. [ShowsOn, Peter van Onsalon’s publisher isnt a happy chappy with all the plaigerism etc, she’s very vocal here, P.v.O would be better off sticking to Abbott, his ideas might be way out but at least they’re his own,]
    LOL! The Conservative’s Manifesto is the title of Abbott’s upcoming book! Will it have to be sold wrapped in brown paper?

  27. Judith I think that was a case of let the publisher beware – getting Liberal Party MPs to write about their political philosophy? What was she thinking?! Who was the readership?

    P.V.O’s students? anyone else?

  29. [Judith I think that was a case of let the publisher beware – getting Liberal Party MPs to write about their political philosophy?]

    Grog, the Liberals can’t find much to write about economics that makes sense these days either. It’s all carp, whinge, whiteant, denegrate and moan.

  31. lol, now we’ve dissected the liberals writing prowess — or lack thereof, we’re being visited by an old scandal, how could we forget it? to be honest i thought this had gone through court and was dusted off and finished, with a liberal election campaign from hell this certainly was the cherry on top, come down memory lane with me.

    http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/10/31/2407259.htm

  33. Steve,for a long time my heart has gone out to Daniel’s family, the week that Alan was missing was the longest in my life, i was at least one of the lucky ones, i know whats happened to Alan and we got his body back to be put to rest with all of our love, we know who killed him, if we’d been left wondering i dont think i’d be sane today.

  34. Judith, there certainly is a lot to be said for the strength displayed by those who have been put through the emotional wringer to that degree.

  35. No 79

    An absolute disaster for the Liberal Party – unbelievable and unforgivable really, hence the reason for Karen Chijoff (a very nice lady) has broken off her marriage. As someone who handed out HTVs in Lindsay on November 24 last year, I can feel her pain.

  36. Now this will be good viewing…
    [THREE of the biggest decisions of the Howard years – the GST, the intervention in East Timor and the Pacific solution – were decided with virtually no consultation with cabinet, it can be revealed for the first time.

    A new television documentary, which is based on more than 20 hours of interviews with John Howard and 180 hours of interviews with key players in Australia and overseas, confirms how dominant the former prime minister was in running the affairs of the nation for almost 12 years.

    Former foreign minister Alexander Downer reveals how one of the most controversial policies of the Howard years – the so-called Pacific solution under which asylum-seekers from Australia were moved to neighbouring island nations – was devised.

    Mr Howard had told him: “Go and find someone who will take them.”

    Mr Downer said: “So I went back up to my office and got my staff together there and said: ‘Well, now we are literally going to have to think up a country to send these people, that’ll take them.’ ]

    Oh it’s going to be gooooood.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24584237-601,00.html

  37. Article in the SMH is still trying to spin the line that mortgage fund freezes are all the fault of the bank guarantee, but does admit that:

    Of the 69 individual funds that have been frozen in some way, 36 closed up shop after the guarantee was introduced on October 12, affecting $15 billion of investor funds.
    (my emphasis)

    So about half were frozen before the government acted. Indeed that began as early as December last year. But this is nothing new. As also stated in the article:

    They point to the fact that many funds were forced to freeze accounts during the last recession in the early 1990s.

  38. “They point to the fact that many funds were forced to freeze accounts during the last recession in the early 1990s.”

    And others after the huge sharemarket falls following the New York twin towers attacks but no guarantee was even suggested or implemented by the Liberals in Government.

  39. steve,

    Perhaps unwisely, I spent hours of my last weekend pointing out to you and others that just because a guarantee wasn’t the right thing to do, that didn’t mean the Govt couldn’t do anything.

    Right on cue, the Govt did three things this week:
    – made the suggestion that the funds become (in effect) banks (though I’m not sure how serious this idea was)
    – made the suggestion that the banks use their balance sheets to assist the funds in some way (I’m sure Rudd meant this seriously, but the banks have predictably brushed it off)
    – now apparently ASIC are moving to make it so that some investors can get some of their money back even when their fund is frozen.

    All worthwhile stuff no doubt (even if a bit around the edges), and proof positive that the view of most Labor PBers (in effect, we can’t offer a guarantee, therefore we can’t do anything at all) was misguided.

    PS Thank goodness for Ron, at least he gets it.

  40. [Now this will be good viewing…]

    I’ll give it a miss, just confirms what most decent Australians already know, an immoral, unprincipled disorganised government with no policies or plans for Australia and the future.

    I think I’d rather take my chances with a Coogee Bay gelato, than risk the nausea that would follow watching that program.

  42. [All worthwhile stuff no doubt (even if a bit around the edges), and proof positive that the view of most Labor PBers (in effect, we can’t offer a guarantee, therefore we can’t do anything at all) was misguided.]

    A very mishcievious and disingenuous view if ever I saw one’ Dyno. Nobody has argued that at all.

    Show me where these Labor hoards have suggested do nothing. What has been argued is that:

    1 shoring upthe banks, credit unions and building societies is paramount

    2 non bank mortgage lenders should have access to the guarantee as banks have

    3 that Liberals should stop talking down the Financial processes and economic leaders during a Global Financial crisis

    4 That as confidence returns, mortgage funds will increase in value and the frozen funds will begin to thaw under the guidance of the regulators esp ATSIC

    5 That funds are not frozen forever which was the wild claim of Dyno repeated often last weekend.

  43. steve,

    I certainly never said the funds were frozen forever. If you think I did, provide the reference please.

    The regular in question is ASIC.

    You obviously give the Liberals credit for having a lot of influence over the markets.

    There were many comments last week along the lines of, people took the risk of investing in these funds, why should the Govt do anything to help them.

    Anyway, now that Mr Rudd has proved me right, that there is plenty that the Govt can and should do about this, I propose to leave the topic alone. Argue all you like, but the PM has proved my point! Good on him for doing that, a lot of investors will be pleased to see something is happening.

  46. OO wouldn’t like their boss praising Kev. I wonder if he smacked a few wrists lol.

    “Mr Murdoch said Kevin Rudd had been “very sure-footed” in his handling of the financial crisis and defended the Prime Minister against criticism that he acted too quickly in his blanket guarantee of the deposits of the Australian banking system.

    “You’ve got to recognise when he (Rudd) did it, he did it the day after the biggest ever fall in the stock market and the US Congress’s first refusal of the $700million bailout,” Mr Murdoch said. “I think, relatively, over this whole financial period, he has acted very sure-footedly.”

    He said politicians should be careful that their comments did not further exacerbate the delicate financial situation.
    Asked if the comments were meant to refer to Malcolm Turnbull, he said: “I don’t think Mr Turnbull has done that.”
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24584219-36418,00.html

  48. Steve at 95. That is a brilliant piece of writing. Encapsulates my thoughts precisely. I only wish I had the jounalistic skill of Ad Astra. Pity it won’t be shown in every newspaper around the country.

  50. steve,

    Not a bad article, and I certainly agree with a number of the key points:

    – the Opposition’s performance has been poor
    – the media have been predictably shallow (except for Kohler)
    – the language Kohler used was over the top
    – but at least Kohler made a suggestion, that could be the start of something more workable.

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