ACT election live

11.15pm. A very strong performance by the Greens at the Lyneham booth in Molonglo (29.2 per cent) has been cancelled out by other late booths: the Greens (1.47) now trail the Liberals (2.49) in the hunt for the last quota.

11.07pm. I earlier said a third Labor seat in Ginninderra would go to Dave Peebles, but he now slightly trails Adina Cirson.

10.58pm. It’s also being said that Frank Pangallo can’t be written off in Molonglo, although it’s conceded that it’s unlikely.

10.56pm. Talk on the ABC is that independent Mark Parton is not out of the hunt in Ginninderra, depending on how independent preferences go. If successful the result there would be two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent. He has 6.6 per cent of the primary vote.

10.43pm. I’m back. Greens sounding slightly more hopeful of that second seat in Molonglo and Labor likewise of a third seat in Ginninderra, but both remain up in the air and if anything leaning slightly to the Liberals.

9.13pm. I’ll be taking a break shortly, so a recap. Brindabella: No doubt the result here is 2-2-1, little doubt Steve Doszpot has taken a Liberal seat from Steve Pratt, possible Joy Burch will take a Labor seat from Mick Gentleman. Ginninderra: Liberals seem to be recovering a little after the 3-1-1 scare, and looking better for 2-2-1, but a few big booths still to come. If it’s the former, Vicki Dunne will lose her seat to Labor’s Dave Peebles. Newcomer Alistair Coe has done very well to be a clear Liberal winner. Molonglo: Labor’s three incumbents looking good; two seat for the Liberals (Zed Seselja overwhelmingly dominating the vote, so unclear if the second will be second-placed Jeremy Hanson or third-placed Giulia Jones), one seat for the Greens (Shane Rattenbury), and the final seat a contest between a third Liberal and a second Greens (unclear if Caroline Le Couteur or Elena Kirschbaum). So Labor has lost its majority but might yet win eight seats out of 17, but more likely seven; Liberal between five and seven; Greens three or four.

9.10pm. What I might have missed in Molonglo is the 3 per cent vote for Richard Mulcahy which will presumably flow heavily to the Liberals (thanks to Oz in comments).

9.06pm. With the vote up from 42.3 to 57.6, the Liberals have recovered slightly in Ginninderra, up from 27.1 to 27.8 per cent. They would still seem more likely than not to win a second seat, but are by no means home and hosed. As far as I can see, the prospect of a second Greens seat in Molonglo looks higher than most are saying: they are on 1.45 quotas against 2.51 for the Liberals, and could surely close that 0.06 gap on preferences. There is a lot I could be missing though.

8.52pm. Situation in Molonglo is that Labor are sure for three, the Liberals for two and the Greens for one, with the final seat down to a third Liberal and a second Green.

8.50pm. Brindabella count up to 63.2 per cent, but the basic situation changed: Labor two (John Hargreaves returned, but Mick Gentleman not home against party newcomer Joy Burch), Liberal two (Brendan Smyth plus Steve Doszpot looking likely to defeat Steve Pratt), Greens one (Amanda Bresnan).

8.46pm. Talk on ABC of the Liberal vote continuing to fade in Ginninderra, putting their second seat at risk. That could mean a final outcome of Labor 8, Liberal 6, Greens 3. The Liberal casualty in Ginninderra would be incumbent Vicki Dunne, who is well behind newcomer Alistair Coe.

8.22pm. Vote count really ticking over now: up to 45.9 per cent in Brindabella, and Joy Burch has hit the lead over Mick Gentleman for the second Labor seat. Steve Pratt now trails Steve Doszpot 8.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent, which is just about lethal for Pratt.

8.20pm. I intimated earlier that Brendan Smyth’s preferences might help Pratt narrow the gap over Doszpot, but the very helpful Ben Raue points out that Smyth is himself some way short of a quota so won’t have preferences to give.

8.10pm. Ginninderra vote up from 16.8 to 20.9 and the Liberals have gone down further, from 1.71 quotas to 1.68.

8.08pm. The brains trust, and apparently the man himself, doesn’t think Pangallo is a chance.

8.05pm. Brindabella count up from 19.5 per cent to 24.3 per cent, and the gap between Doszpot and Pratt continues to widen.

8.02pm. With an extra 1.8 per cent counted (20.1 per cent), the Greens vote up slightly in Molonglo, where there support is unevenly spread. It might be that Frank Pangallo is in the hunt here: his group is on 0.38 quotas against 1.39 for the Greens.

7.58pm. An extra 2.5 per cent counted in Brindabella bears out what Adam said earlier: Labor up from 34.2 per cent to 34.9 per cent, Liberal down from 36.8 per cent to 36.1 per cent, Greens down from 13.6 per cent. The 2-2-1 outcome here is not in doubt, but it’s interesting to note that Steve Pratt has fallen further behind newcomer Liberal Steve Doszpot: from 7.7-7.1 to 7.7-6.8. However, as a sitting member and ally of Brendan Smyth, Pratt can presumably expect to do better on the latter’s preferences.

7.55pm. Ben Raue on the ground notes: “Of course it takes ages. First of all you’ve gotta unfold them, then sort them into columns, then sort them into individuals within columns when all different ballots have the candidates in a different order, then tally them. It takes a lot longer than a federal primary count.”

7.54pm. Count remains slow, but Liberal spokesman on ABC Radio doesn’t sound concerned about a second seat in Ginninderra despite only being on 1.7 quotas at present.

7.25pm. Count now proceeding slowly after initial excitement. Adam Carr notes in comments that the polls are doing better for Labor than the pre-polls. Greens hopes for a second seat in Molonglo seem to be fading.

7.11pm. ABC Radio commentators pretty much writing off Richard Mulcahy.

7.05pm. Big picture: 11 per cent swing against Labor, slight drop in the Liberals, big pick-up for the Greens – definitely good for three seats, maybe yet four. ABC computer still saying seven each for Labor and Liberal, three for the Greens. Kate Lundy still thinks Labor might win three seats in Ginninderra, but they’ll have to do better than their current 2.3 quotas.

6.52pm. More on Molonglo: Sometime NSW Greens candidate Ben Raue vaguely hopeful in comments of a second Greens seat, but early days with booth votes only just starting to come in. Katy Gallagher easily leading the Labor field; Andrew Barr not doing well for a presumed future leader, but still very likely to win a seat. Simon Corbell the poorest performing of the three Labor incumbents. Zed Seselja home and hosed, but Jacqui Burke in trouble, trailing two Liberal newcomers in Jeremy Hanson and Guilia Jones.

6.40pm. Molonglo: Labor looking good for three seats, the Liberals not certain of more than two, Shane Rattenbury home and hosed for the Greens.

6.38pm. Ginninderra: The Liberals are short of two quotas at the moment, but probably not by enough to stop them winning two seats. Vicki Dunne is trailing newcomer Alistair Coe; both should win seats unless they are indeed in danger of only winning one. Jon Stanhope and Mary Porter both set to be returned. Meredith Hunter to win a seat for the Greens.

6.35pm. Brindabella: on counting of pre-polls, Labor and Liberal are both just above two quotas and the Greens just below one, leaving no doubt as to the result if the trend continues. Intriguingly, Steve Doszpot narrowly leads Steve Pratt in the race for the second Liberal seat; Brendan Smyth is clearly not in trouble. John Hargreaves certain to win the first Labor seat, but Joy Burch perhaps an outside change to beat Mick Gentleman, although she is behind. Strong performances by the micro-parties, but not strong enough.

6.32pm. ABC computer predicting seven seats each to Labor and Liberal and three to the Greens.

6.26pm. That quick counting has indeed been down to electronic voting – all those results are pre-polls. I expect things will quieten down a little for a while now.

6.21pm. Presumably to rub salt into the wounds of the technical problems I have been having, the ACT Electoral Commission are conducting the count at breakneck speed – perhaps this has something to do with electronic voting. 12.9 per cent counted and those opinion polls are looking good – Labor down 10.7 per cent, Liberals down 2.9 per cent, Greens up 7.2 per cent.

6.20pm. Apologies for the delay in getting started. Oz in comments writes: “5% counted. 9.8% swing to The Greens in Brindabella. 12.1% counted, 7.4% swing to The Greens in Ginninderra. 11% counted in Molonglo, 7% swing to The Greens. Labor and Lib losing out, Independants also getting swings.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

293 comments on “ACT election live”

  1. Rebecca, could you please send me the link to that website? I tried to find out what booths had been counted but I couldn’t find it. Maybe I’m blind.

  2. There is still an outside chance that the Greens will pinch a second seat in Molonglo, and a somewhat better chance that Labor will pinch a third seat in Ginninderra. So the Libs are only guaranteed 5 seats. An 8-5-4 result is possible, 7-6-4 is also possible, 8-6-3 is also possible. But 7-7-3 is still the most likely.

  3. Rebecca, that’s interesting, but you keep talking about the caucus being 3, 3, 1. Since they’ve got 9 members, where do the other two line up?

  4. Feral: No, that’s not what I said. The caucus, as it stands now, would be 3-3-1, with the factions exactly balanced and Stanhope in the middle. The caucus prior to the election was 4-4-1 – they just lost one seat on each side (assuming that they have in fact lost the third seat in Ginninderra).

  5. What do we do know, Grog? …Drink water to sober up?

    Stanhope just called The Greens “The great community party”.

    He also sounds like he’s going to leave his wife for Katy Gallagher.

  6. Oz: Yes.

    …and if I’m not mistaken, I think that Green surge might have come from Red Hill, which is a bit of a shock. I’d have expected a bit of a Green vote there, but in a race against the Libs I’d have expected it to turn out firmly for the Libs.

  7. Apparently the Liberal Party is “back in the ACT”. Interesting spin on a -3.4% swing and a possible loss of two seats.

    Stanhope says it’s a “fantastic result”, Zed says it’s a “great result”. These guys must be on crack.

  8. I have no idea what results may be expected from them, but the booths still to report in Molonglo are… Baker Gardens, Barton, Campbell, Dickson, Hughes, Lyneham, Mawson, Ngunnawal, O’Connor, Oalmerston, Weston.

  9. On that point Oz in Cabramatta the booth I was on the Libs picked up an apparent case of personation and an attempt to multiple vote.

    Never seen that before in my life – well 42 years of working on booths.

    In Australia at least. When I lived in Ireland I worked with a Fianna Fail hothead who collected and used no less than 50 voter ID cards on polling day.

  10. I can’t compare the results directly because the Elections ACT has them in an Excel document, and I’ve somehow managed to bugger Excel up on this computer.

    But of those, Baker Gardens, O’Connor and Lyneham would have to be three of the best booths in Canberra for the Greens. Campbell and Dickson I’d expect to be pretty good too, considering the high amount of students and such in both.

    The Libs I’d expected to be good in Palmerston, Ngunnawal and Barton, but the last of those I doubt would be a very big booth.

    I have no idea about Hughes, Mawson and Weston without being able to see the ’04 results.

  11. Adam

    Reflecting on the Rocking around the World thread I had said there was a shift to the centre, away from the right, but not necessarily a swing to the left. However this result suggests that there may be a swing to the left after all. 2PP figures hide where the shift away from the right was going, but these results say it is going to the Greens (further left of Labor). Labor better keep working on those climate change policies…

  12. William, where are you getting the prediction that Dave Peebles would emerge victorious if Labor won Ginninderra, as opposed to Adina Cirson? According to the Elections ACT website, Cirson’s 100 votes ahead of him.

  13. Mmm, I don’t think Pangallo has a chance anymore. Motorist Party preferences aren’t going anywhere and he’d need around 3/4 the Mulcahy preferences which I don’t he’ll get.

    Lyneham’s come in now, reflected in a boost for The Greens.

  14. I have a notion that a lot of feminists would have voted Katy Gallagher one and then crossed to the Greens. At the last Tasmanian election, the Greens had a surprise last-minute win in Bass under precisely these circumstances, thanks to Labor votes leaking from Michelle O’Byrne. Are there any scrutineers out there who can provide any intelligence here?

  15. Quite right, but I don’t think what they’re on is good enough for them. Half the AMP vote is exhausted but the rest flow to the Libs, as will Mulcahy.

    They’re going to have to take a significant amount of Pangallo preferences.

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