Presidential election minus 29 days

As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).

October 1-8 Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Pennsylvania 51.3 40.6 2552 21
Michigan 51.1 41.3 531 17
Washington 53.0 43.6 700 11
New Hampshire 52.6 43.3 2160 4
Minnesota 51.1 42.2 3073 10
Wisconsin 51.2 44.3 1531 10
New Mexico 46.8 42.2 1159 5
Maine 51.0 46.6 500 4
Ohio 49.3 44.9 6622 20
Virginia 49.6 45.4 2891 13
Nevada 49.9 46.2 1768 5
Colorado 48.5 45.2 2110 9
Florida 49.3 46.0 2250 27
North Carolina 48.6 46.0 3113 15
Missouri 49.7 47.5 1000 11
Indiana 45.5 48.7 1477 11
Others – – – 182 163
RCP/Total 49 43.9 – 364 174

As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.

UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Presidential election minus 29 days”

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  3. [ShowsOn – maybe it is Shakespearian.]
    Maybe, or more likely Shakesbeerian.[what another egg head Michael Moore believing th terrorists did not execute 9/11 ]
    This sentence.
    [yea terorists just won’t even exist in Obamabotic heaven…get reel ,]
    Doesn’t relate to this sentence.
    [Rudd like Palin believes terrorists ar a threat]
    Which doesn’t relate to this sentence.

    Of course Michael Moore is a moron, but your attempt to tie his views to Obama’s is nonsensical.

  4. Poss, you are still on the danger list in my household for pooing liberally my back porch, still contemplating the Sarah Palin final solution. So watch it.

  10. The latest newsbreak from BBC. Very intriguing.

    [Obama Nation author held in Kenya – Kenyan authorities have detained the American author of a highly critical book about US presidential candidate Barack Obama, officials have said.

    The author of The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality has been accused of a smear campaign against Mr Obama.

    Mr Obama’s father was from Kenya, where the US candidate is highly popular.

    Mr Corsi had reportedly travelled to Kenya to unveil his best-selling book there.

    In a recent press release, the author said he would “expose deep secret ties between between US Democratic presidential candidate Sen Barack Obama and a section of the Kenyan government leaders.” ]

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7656546.stm

  12. [The latest newsbreak from BBC. Very intriguing.]
    Sounds nonsensical to me.

    But the idea that anyone should be arrested for writing a book is just completely absurd. The more attention directed at conspiracy theorists the more conspiracy theorists there will be.

  13. join Michael Moore you seem to agree

    FINNS

    how come you zapped those parrots from your porch over to me Discussing geo politcal matters like th terorist threat that Palin & Rudd hav discussed seems beyond there elitist liberal comprehension but maybe they ar crazy pacifists like michael moore there idol

    no postive Obama comments tonite , 15 anti everyone else ones

  15. Finns – maybe Corsi (an utter fruitloop BTW) was in Kenya looking for Palin’s witchdoctor 😉

    Kenya is, if nothing else, getting a prominent run in this election.

  18. [join Michael Moore you seem to agree]
    Who agrees with what?
    [there elitist liberal comprehension ]
    Does this have something to do with telling people what they can and can’t laugh at?

  20. ShowsOn

    Both Adam & I hav previously proved you lie by twisting posters comments and last sentence of your #103 is another lie , no poster should take your blogs seriously

  24. North Carolina is a bit like Virginia, in that its urbanizing and becoming less conservative.

    However, it should still be more conservative than Virginia. In a close election it wouldn’t be in play. But I’m not surprised that Obama’s competitive there when he’s running so far ahead nationally.

  25. The allocation of electors is based on congressional representation: 2 per state (like the Senate) plus one per House of Reps member.
    The two states Maine and Nebraska that do not use state-wide winner takes all have one elector per House district and two state-wide.

    The most electors come from California (by a long way).

  26. [Both Adam & I hav previously proved you lie by twisting posters comments]
    You didn’t prove anything. To prove something you need to provide evidence and back it up with logical reasoning, you haven’t ever come even close to doing either in response to any of my posts. But I’m glad you’ve re-designated yourself as Adam’s attack dog.
    [and last sentence of your #103 is another lie , no poster should take your blogs seriously]
    Well no one takes your posts seriously. Just because Michael Moore says something doesn’t mean Obama agrees with it. Just because you put things in the same clunky sentence doesn’t mean they actually follow on from each other. That invisible pink unicorn is still balancing on your head, even if you can’t see it.

  27. [But I’m not surprised that Obama’s competitive there when he’s running so far ahead nationally.]
    Apparently he is running twice as much advertising there as McCain. And Obama is running ATTACKS “socialised medicine”, he is trying to show that his policy is a middle way between privatisation and full Government run healthcare.

    So he is kind of attacking himself from the right there to appeal to moderate and centrist voters.

  29. William

    I’ve always respected this is your site

    A respected public figure previously has made two posts on PB (correctly) calling ShowsOn a liar for quoting words a poster did not even say (his posts I copied)

    Subsequently I hav (corectly) called ShowsOn a liar also for th same reason His conduct is unacceptable and calling him truthfully a liar is only a reasonable & accurate response and there is no intent to disrespect you

  32. In which case, I erred in not telling the respected public figure to tone it down also. There are plenty of other ways you could have forcefully stated your case.

    In other news, I’ve updated my state polling table to include the Time figures. Indiana is back in the McCain column.

  33. [A respected public figure previously has made two posts on PB (correctly) calling ShowsOn a liar for quoting words a poster did not even say (his posts I copied)]
    LOL! OH NOES Ronster has a DOSSIER (but not a dictionary).
    [Subsequently I hav (corectly) called ShowsOn a liar also for th same reason His conduct is unacceptable and calling him truthfully a liar is only a reasonable & accurate response and there is no intent to disrespect you]
    Re-read post 128.

  34. [In which case, I erred in not telling the respected public figure to tone it down also.]
    No way! Antony Green called me a liar! When did this occur?

    I’m calling my lawyers.

  38. [So I’ve had this gut feeling for a while, but I’m going to make it public – I think McCain’s going to win.]
    LIAR!
    Sorry. I mean, maybe, or maybe not.

    If McCain does win from here it would probably make a great book and / or documentary.

  39. [If McCain does win from here it would probably make a great book and / or documentary.]

    Speaking of Doco’s, do you folks know that Ed Norton (the actor) has had cameras behind the scenes with Obama since 2006 making a doco on him, before Obama had decided to run for President?

    But the best bit is, those cameras stayed with him when and after he decided to run.

    What’s the bet this doco breaks all records when it’s released?

    It’s set to be released next year.

  40. [What’s the bet this doco breaks all records when it’s released?

    It’s set to be released next year.]
    Woah! Sounds great.

    I’ll have to re-watch The War Room soon.

  41. It goes with him from the decision to run, through to setting up the ground apparatus, through the primaries and (I’d imagine) on through the general election (I haven’t heard any updates about it for a few months).

    It will be a cracker!

  42. No 140

    I’d rather watch The Dismissal to peacefully rejoice at the excellent decision to rid Australia of a most harmful government in 1975. 🙂

  43. [I’d rather watch The Dismissal to peacefully rejoice at the excellent decision to rid Australia of a most harmful government in 1975. 🙂 ]
    Whatever floats your constitutional crisis.

  44. William , I’ve respected your decisions as moderator in past and again accept fully your #132 decision , (notwithstanding wrong posts made in #133 & #134 made after your #132 decision , and then surprisingly a further post in #138 after your second decision in #135 ……which i’m unable to reply to without disrespecting breaching your #132 decsion which I wouldn’t)

  46. [(notwithstanding wrong posts made in #133 & #134 made after your #132 decision ]
    I didn’t call Antony Green a liar. I thought you asserted that he called me a liar. He is the only “respected public figure” I know who visits this board.

    William is a public figure only when W.A. elections are on.

  48. Well its been good to see comedy displayed tonite , some people ar naturals

    As for Wall Street there’s been no comedt there , pity Republican & Democrat HoR were so irresponsible in not passing a first Bailout Bill , seeing by time 2nd was passed alot of its ‘value’ was diminshed causing current falls Why they just did not initially guarantee deposits is a disappointment or take them over less poison debts , but not take partial equity

  50. Another thing about comedy is if one CLOSELY follows those that run a circular arguement , they end up where they originally started from…but with a different answer …then shock horror sets in as th embarrasment of th anser they’re left with

    Another issue is US election regarding UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE where I’ve asserted John Edwards & Hillary supported this key ‘left ‘policy’ of universal healthcare and Obama does NOT

    Anyone looking at John Edwards & Hillarys sites can see there policys ar universal healthcare Furthermore I’ve quoted Elizabeth Edwards in this regard

    Anyone looking at Obama’s site past th disengenuous first page can also see Obama’s policy is NOT universal healthcare (why ignore first page ? because Obama disengenuously says his policy “covers” all Americans , th word “covers” is misleading , Obama’s policy “addresses all Americans IF they chose to be covered and IF they can afford to be covered

    John McCain can also say his policy “covers” all Americans also , but like Obama’s it simply “addresses” all americans IF they chose to be covered and IF they can afford to be covered

    Once one actualy looks at detail of Obama’s and McCain’s health policys its very obvious neither ar universal healthcare for all adult & kids in America

    Glad NOW to see an Obama csupporter has finally acknowledged Obama does NOT hav a universal healthcare policy (unlike Edwards & Hillary had)

    #127
    “Apparently he is running twice as much advertising there as McCain. And Obama is running ATTACKS “socialised medicine”, he is trying to show that his policy is a middle way between privatisation and full Government run healthcare.

    So he is kind of attacking himself from the right there to appeal to moderate and centrist voters”

    Obama’s ads tell th truth about his policy Now I realise this info will not alter th non rusted on Obama supporters (Obamaphiles) at all from still supporting Obama & don’t expect to , however prefer posters know th policy truth rahter than th Obamabotic
    policy disinformation & unreality

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