Presidential election minus 29 days

As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).

October 1-8 Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Pennsylvania 51.3 40.6 2552 21
Michigan 51.1 41.3 531 17
Washington 53.0 43.6 700 11
New Hampshire 52.6 43.3 2160 4
Minnesota 51.1 42.2 3073 10
Wisconsin 51.2 44.3 1531 10
New Mexico 46.8 42.2 1159 5
Maine 51.0 46.6 500 4
Ohio 49.3 44.9 6622 20
Virginia 49.6 45.4 2891 13
Nevada 49.9 46.2 1768 5
Colorado 48.5 45.2 2110 9
Florida 49.3 46.0 2250 27
North Carolina 48.6 46.0 3113 15
Missouri 49.7 47.5 1000 11
Indiana 45.5 48.7 1477 11
Others 182 163
RCP/Total 49 43.9 364 174

As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.

UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Presidential election minus 29 days”

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  1. This one from the Australian is pretty good too ….,25197,24475191-2703,00.html

    * personally, I don’t care a whole lot about Canadian politics but the article here notes that the financial crisis is hitting the incumbent party in the polls there as it is in the US.

    Canada’s ruling Conservatives, who came to power in 2006 after 13 years of Liberal rule, have called a snap election for October 14 in an attempt to win the 28 extra seats they need for an outright majority in the 308-seat Parliament. Until recently a united political Right had a 10-point lead in the polls over the fragmented opposition, comprising the Liberals, the left-leaning New Democratic Party, the Greens and the separatist Bloc Quebecois. But the financial crisis has scrambled the race; now the Conservatives lead by just five points.

  2. [
    It would seem that Obama has been studying the 1932 Great Depression campaign of Franklin D. Roosevelt. In recent days, Obama has painted himself as calm, pragmatic, open and hopeful. He seemed to be channeling FDR when he told a crowd in Indianapolis on Wednesday: “This isn’t a time for fear or for panic. This is a time for resolve and steady leadership.”

    As for McCain, his campaign is trying to sow fear and panic about Obama. That’s exactly what Herbert Hoover tried to do with Roosevelt. Days before the 1932 election, Hoover attacked Roosevelt’s “inchoate new deal.” He predicted it would “crack the timbers of the Constitution” and warned voters to beware of the “glitter of promise.”

  3. Kit and Juliem, those polls mean squat just you wait till the new ones come out after Stephane Dion’s interview in which he couldnt understand a question in English and had to restart the interview 3 times lol!
    Tories show video to play up Dion’s language difficulties
    Tories try to make hay with fumbled Dion interview

    heheheh here comes a Tory majority thankyou frenchie!

  4. Not sure any government in power will increase their lead in government in the current economic climate, Glen. While I don’t know enough about Canadian nor New Zealand politics to offer a prediction on who will win their respective elections, I feel fairly certain in saying that if the incumbents are returned, that it will not be with increased majorities ….. Betcha the Conservatives in Canada are actually wishing now that they had not called a snap election, it was horrible timing for them since their main motivation was trying to get power to govern in their own right …..

  5. [Hussey just got his hundred … second test hundred against India and 9th overall]

    and Australia has won every game he has got a hundred in… a good omen

  6. They had to call one eventually juliem, better going when they want to rather than have the Bloc, NDP and Liberals gang up when they think they can win!

    By your logic then Rudd must not be looking forward to 2010?
    Canada is better placed than any country to ride it out werent their banks put No1 now i know they’re close to the USA but I’d say the Tories will pick up seats I mean could you vote for a party whose leader cannot even converse well in your own language…nope!

  7. Not sure what will happen in 2010 but hope it is good for the Labor party.

    One thing I do think will be really interesting is how Parliament QT will be this week 😉 … things ought to be hopping over on the “generic thread” LOL …..

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