Presidential election minus 29 days

As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).

October 1-8 Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Pennsylvania 51.3 40.6 2552 21
Michigan 51.1 41.3 531 17
Washington 53.0 43.6 700 11
New Hampshire 52.6 43.3 2160 4
Minnesota 51.1 42.2 3073 10
Wisconsin 51.2 44.3 1531 10
New Mexico 46.8 42.2 1159 5
Maine 51.0 46.6 500 4
Ohio 49.3 44.9 6622 20
Virginia 49.6 45.4 2891 13
Nevada 49.9 46.2 1768 5
Colorado 48.5 45.2 2110 9
Florida 49.3 46.0 2250 27
North Carolina 48.6 46.0 3113 15
Missouri 49.7 47.5 1000 11
Indiana 45.5 48.7 1477 11
Others 182 163
RCP/Total 49 43.9 364 174

As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.

UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Presidential election minus 29 days”

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  1. 700

    [The old rules of the Government being the problem have been thrown out the window. (Which is why I think McCain’s campaign is running a completely counter-intuitive message)].

    You hit the nail right on the head there ShowsOn

  2. Obama lost WV to Hillary 65% to 35% from memory. It was almost the greatest thrashing in history for a successful nominee. It has the highest percentage of “rednecks” in the US. ARG is going to look very smart or very stupid (I choose the latter).

  3. If by “rednecks” you mean working-class whites, that’s probably true. The use of the term “redneck” by elite commentators is a symbol of the kind of arrogant condescension that has alienated these voters from their natural home in the Democrat Party – if WV had voted for Al Gore, the Bush presidency would never have happened, so condescension has its price. If WV really has flipped to Obama, that’s a sign that economics really has driven all other issues out of the election.

  4. WV switched from being reliably blue to reliably red solely because of social issues. I would assume that the Lewinsky scandal played especially badly over there.

    However, the whole reason why WV was a blue state in the first place was because of economic issues (even Dukakis – the most liberal nominee in years – won there). If the economy looks like tanking, there may be a chance WV switches to blue again.

    Of course, I was pretty certain that Hillary would have won WV even if economic issues hadn’t come to the fore – the Clintons seem to be quite popular (still) amongst the rural poor.

  5. Palin making more gaffes on her supposed strong suit, energy

    [At a townhall event in Wisconsin on Thursday, Palin was asked by a concerned questioner whether it was true that the United States was shipping 75 percent of its Alaskan oil overseas. She responded by proclaiming it impossible, since Congress had put strict bans on the amount of oil and gas that America could export.

    Not so. As the Associated Press reported:

    “Congress has never imposed outright bans on oil exports. Congress prohibited exports of Alaska oil in 1973 when the Alaska oil pipeline was built. But that ban was lifted in 1996 when there were large volumes of Alaska oil coming down from the North Slope and U.S. demand was soft.

    The Alaska ban has never been reinstated.”]

  6. [Obama lost WV to Hillary 65% to 35% from memory. It was almost the greatest thrashing in history for a successful nominee. It has the highest percentage of “rednecks” in the US. ARG is going to look very smart or very stupid (I choose the latter).]
    Surely it would’ve been closer if he campaigned there?
    [If by “rednecks” you mean working-class whites, that’s probably true.]
    Don’t worry Adam, the rednecks are on board:
    Check out the photo. To say Obama is some elitist who doesn’t care about working class voters is a joke. The idea that ‘NASCAR Rednecks’ only vote Republican is just a myth created by Republicans.

  7. Adam, WV is stereotyped by most of the US as an inbred and dumb state. Rightly or wrongly, it’s the butt of a lot of jokes; and I’m not talking about elite commentators. I’m talking about people all across the country from all walks of life.

  8. 706

    That would be right. Palin doesn’t even know what’s going on in her own backyard. Great choice for VP of the whole country.

  9. 708

    If a state full of working class whites votes for the Republican party they’re certainly not the sharpest tools in the shed. Talk about shoot yourself in the foot.

  10. [dont know if this has been posted before
    but the sheer gall is unbelievable
    “Palin pre-empts state report, clears self in probe”]

    Sounds like the report is going to hammer her then…

  11. 719

    It would be poetic justice if Palin was severely damaged by a scandal after her scurrilous attacks on Obama. How does the saying go? Those who live by the sword die by the sword.

  12. ltep @ 692,

    If Obama is serious about putting some Republicans in his cabinet, I suspect that Colin Powell might be his first port of call ………

  13. The McCain camp is getting increasingly desperate 😉

    Former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, a McCain campaign co-chairman, edged up to an explicitly racial attack on Barack Obama on Thursday, describing the Illinois Senator as a “guy of the street” before raising his youthful drug use. ………… It’s unclear what Keating meant by “a guy of the street,” but his assertion that Obama should “admit” his brief drug use in high school makes little sense, since it was Obama himself who did disclose it in his memoir published 12 years ago.

  14. Adam

    I used the term “rednecks” in quotation marks for those reasons. I was pretty dismissive of “rednecks” until I read “Deer Hunting with Jesus” which is a great book. Now I’ve got a grudging respect for them.

  15. 722

    Julie, I presume you mean McCain won’t be around politically. Or do you know something about his state of health that we don’t?

  16. [How is “guy of the street” an “explicitly racial attack”? An explicit racial attack must contain an explicit reference to race.]

    Adam, the longer quote was “edged up to an explicitly racial attack”. As in it wasn’t explicit but was getting close.

  17. 731 & 732 Adam

    [I only look right-wing in the present company.]

    [I could also have said “I only look like an intellectual in the present company]


  18. Aus 299-5 just after drinks in the first session …. lunch break 5pm local time in Canberra …..

    hussey 75 from 146 and haddin 10 from 34, haddin on strike at the moment

  19. Adam says:

    “I am a mainstream Labor hack”

    Yes it worries me, I think if your honest you would put right in there some where, the current strength of the labor party in my view is it can tolerate a range of views including no doubt yours and Mr Rudd’s.

    I am impressed with the current Victorian Labor party, nice balance of economic rationalism and social Liberalism ( go Brumby I say). I suspect the current abortion and fertility legislation would be causing you some concern, and if not, why do you believe we should enjoy such liberal outcomes while the Americans have to put up with religious zealots?

  20. Dario,

    SAT (or ACT, there are two main competing tests out there) is a standardized test that is required for entry to all US colleges and universities. Since there are 50 states and hundreds, if not thousands, of schools in each one; this is how the universities and colleges put all potential students on a level playing field. Here it is done with the HSC (or your states equivelent, measured in universal units to put entrants on a level playing field).

    Hawaii Pacific University doesn’t list their SAT or ACT requirements on their website. Can’t remember where else Palin attended.

    I can guarantee you that SAT scores like those wouldn’t have gained her even a “sniff” of admission to a university with any major reputation. I had about 1300 total between math and verbal scores on my SAT and that wasn’t enough for my university (University of Michigan). I had to take the other test as well (ACT) despite having left school ranked #10 out of 242 students.

  21. [I can guarantee you that SAT scores like those wouldn’t have gained her even a “sniff” of admission to a university with any major reputation]

    Well she did go to 5 different unis…

  22. Is the US the first banana republic with nuclear weapons? Balanced as always, from Christopher Hitchens. I have to agree with this bit.

    [Now ask yourself another question. Has anybody resigned, from either the public or the private sectors (overlapping so lavishly as they now do)? Has anybody even offered to resign? Have you heard anybody in authority apologize, as in: “So very sorry about your savings and pensions and homes and college funds, and I feel personally rotten about it”? Have you even heard the question being posed? O.K., then, has anybody been fired? Any regulator, any supervisor, any runaway would-be golden-parachute artist? Anyone responsible for smugly putting the word “derivative” like a virus into the system? To ask the question is to answer it.]

  23. Diogeneoski #645

    Ronster 623 “I’m not disagreeing with any of those facts, just the interpretation”

    That’s a vague disingenuous comment Which of th 4 interpetations do you disagree with

    One , that William Ayres was one of worst terrorists in US history Do you Dispiute that ?

    (if so, I can detail miles more supporting data than that given in a short 60 second add).

    Two , that at age 34 years Obama a LAWYER , FIRST started his politcl career by going to th home of William Ayres in 95 , Ayres being his first politcl sponsor to meet William Ayres political operatives for an intro & OK

    (..when Obama made his initial run for Illinois Senate…or there close long subsequent associations eg as a Director on Ayres Foundation anand OTHER close associations with him) Do you Dispute that ?

    Three , my assertion this Ayres relationship demonstrates Obama shows , not that Obama is a terrorist , but Obama displayed poor judgement asociating not with elite or normative people but such crude people & may as well hav been a multipley convicted pedilfile given Ayres terorist record

    (and further Obama’s Ayres ‘friendship’ displayed lack of decency standards associating with th vileness of an Ayres & a lack of governance convictions instead to befriend (& longterm) any seeedy person for his personal ambitions) Th test is of Obama’s character , as a stand alone , and not comparative to McCain or anyone else Do you Dispute that ?

    Four , because th perception is this econamy crisis was caused by th Republicans and therfore is driving Obama’s lead & probable electon , is your interpretation is use this econamic crisis (& polling resulting) to avoid either acknowledging or disagreeing with specificalty one , two or thre IF so it is what I’ve said aboiut Obamabots , live in an internet intelectecual virtual reality fantasyland as if any adverse Obama acknowledgement means they cann’t support there messiah any more

  24. Ron, I dispute point number 1. I don’t think anyone from the Weatherman would classify as one of the worst US terrorists, when you consider that that group contains people like the Unabomber, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols.

  25. Ronster

    1. Ayers was not even close to being one of the worst terrorists in the US. He’s never even done jail time from what I can read. He’s never killed anyone and I don’t think he’s ever injured anyone. Look up Metesky, McVeigh and Kaczynski is you want a decent terrorist. Ayers isn’t in their league.

    2. Probably true (but couldn’t give a shit if it was or wasn’t)

    3. Ayers had renounced his terrorism by that stage. It was perhaps a bit naive of Obama to work with him but it depends on how much he believed in the project doing good. I know a few seedy people and have to work with them. It’s a part of “doing business”. I don’t like it but I do it. I had to operate on one of Australia’s only terrorists this year and I’ve operated on plenty of murderers and worse. Sometimes you just separate your beliefs from your job.

    4. It honestly doesn’t bother me (and Wright did to some extent). I’m an existentialist. People are defined by their actions and decisions. Personally, Obama’s support for capital punishment disgusts me and is more important than Wright, Ayers and Rezko.

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