As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | – | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
William, where did you find a poll giving Obama 50.9 in Georgia?
Also, both RCP and electoralvote have McCain ahead in Indiana.
The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World.
/Edward scissor hands style on
[Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS]
How do you know this?
[Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is.]
What do you mean by this? Do you mean because he is black?
William,
[
As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up.
]
Which states are you considering swing states? Would they be the RCP toss up states or are you using another measure?
I beg your pardon, I had Georgia the wrong way around. Indiana is explained in the post: at present I’m only using polling from the past few days. I will eventually expand the range of polling I use to maybe a fortnight.
Julie, I pretty much followed Electoral-Vote’s lead.
[The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World.]
And McCain & Palin would unite them… riiiiiiight
[And McCain & Palin would unite them… riiiiiiight]
Remember George W Bush’s 2000 campaign mantra? “I’m a uniter, not a divider”, look how that turned out!
#4 The Show Must Go On
[My friend, I’ll say it clear
I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain
Regrets, I’ve had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do and saw it through without exemption
Yes, there were times, I’m sure you knew
When I bit off more than I could chew
But through it all, when there was doubt
I ate it up and spit it out
I faced it all and I stood tall and did it my way
I’ve had my fill, my share of losing
And now, as tears subside, I find it all so amusing
To think I did all that
And may I say, not in a shy way,
“Oh, no, oh, no, not me, I did it my way”
To say the things he truly feels and not the words of one who kneels
The record shows I took the blows and did it my way!]
[#4 The Show Must Go On]
WTF?
LOL! 😀
William
ecuse ignorance
but is there a chance of
1.obama winning mccains home state
2.is there an point(as such) that obama wins a record number of states
tanks
For the Hilary fan club. In-trade has Hilary at 1.5 in the race – currently coming third!
[1.obama winning mccains home state]
No. McCain is up there by around 10%
[2.is there an point(as such) that obama wins a record number of states
tanks]
No. He would have to win all 50 in order to beat Reagan in 1984:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984
[For the Hilary fan club. In-trade has Hilary at 1.5 in the race – currently coming third!]
She would be higher if Obama and McCain died.
Electoral-Vote has McCain leading 52-38 in Arizona, so I wouldn’t have thought so. Reagan won every state except Minnesota (and DC) in 1984 – I wouldn’t get too excited about Obama’s prospects of doing as well as that.
[No. He would have to win all 50 in order to beat Reagan in 1984:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984 ]
Nixon in ’72 won 49 states as well.
Sorry ShowsOn,William
re point 2-I was referring to Obama as regards a democrat benchmark 🙂
supplementary:is arizona the safest state for mccain
[Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. ]
Excuse me? Who in politics isn’t divisive to any extent?
[and then radiate out to the World]
Well then Obama is the man; in terms of the rest of the world looking at America, Obama is the uniter. McCain is just Bush-old.
[re point 2-I was referring to Obama as regards a democrat benchmark 🙂 ]
My guess would be FDR winning 46 states in 1932. The next closest is I think LBJ winning 44+DC in 1964.
[supplementary:is arizona the safest state for mccain]
No. It is probably Utah, he is currently up there by about 30%
FINNS
“we even have a new Czarina who is sounding more and more like the old one”
yes & catlike too , also a chris c 20 posts an hour and foot soldiers but commonality does extends to both disinformation & th ‘ Gotti’ teflon don effect , but bailout changed it all & would hav done in reverse human nature
Ron, golden rule: talk about politics, not other commenters.
RCP now has Missouri in the Obama camp under its no tossup states map 🙂 …….. He is winning all of the tossup states (in their opinion) excepting Indiana at present …..
I bet Indiana falls to him under the no tossup map before the election, I’m changing my EV guess 😉 ………
[I bet Indiana falls to him under the no tossup map before the election, I’m changing my EV guess 😉 ………]
I read something somewhere today that no Republican has become President without winning Indiana.
[
Rearranging the Deck Chairs
by John Cole
You can almost hear a stirring rendition of Nearer, My God, To Thee as you read this post at Red State:
This is, in fact, the last week for John McCain to, on his own accord, shift the polling trends back in his favor. To do so, he must aggressively begin punching Barack Obama on issues that work to McCain’s advantage.
I think we’ve seen the beginnings of this with Sarah Palin going after Obama’s terrorist ties, which are extremely extensive and barely covered by the media.
***
It is time for McCain-Palin ‘08 to change the narrative by aggressively going after Barack Obama on Fannie and Freddie. Force the issue before the public and an unwilling media. Force the tough questions. Certainly, Obama will push back, but McCain should easily be able to handle those questions — much easier than Obama can handle his questions.
I honestly have no idea why they think they have any credible way of tying Obama to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and even beyond that, I have no idea why they think that those two are responsible for the meltdown. Quite clearly, asserting that those two institutions are behind the current economic disaster is silly beyond even Red State standards, but they will attempt to push it anyway. Besides, didn’t they just spend the last six months deriding how long Obama has been in the Senate and how little experience he has? Now their message is that he alone is responsible for the entire economic meltdown by proxy, through his tenuous connections to partial players? The premise is laughable and, once again, reeks of flop sweat.
But if you want to talk about actual factual matters, we should look at some numbers and charts. When the Republicans took over the White House in 2000, the DOW was at around 10,600. Currently, the DOW is 9824. In 2000, when Bush and the Republicans took office, we had a budget surplus of about 230 billion. This year, we are expected to run approximately a half-trillion dollar deficit, and that was before the trillion we have tossed on to the national debt in the last few weeks.
But here is the most startling statistic- all previous forty-two presidents, in the history of this nation, had a combined national debt of approximately 5.5 trillion. George W. Bush and the Republican administration have almost doubled the debt of his 42 predecessors, as our national debt is over ten trillion (and that does not count all the chicanery with social security obligations and the like).
George Bush and Republican rule have been a DISASTER. There is no other term for it. John McCain may think he is being unfairly tarnished with this, but it is important to remember that he has been with Bush all the way on things, and intends to continue the Bush policies that helped to get us where we are. We are on the edge of a cliff, and John McCain wants to keep walking forward (no doubt his running mate things jumping would be a good leap of faith).
So whinge about Bill Ayers. Whine about Rezko. Babble to your heart’s content about Fannie Mae. Scream Freddie Mac and Barney “Fag” all you want. These are silly, last minute desperate distractions, and the American people know who is responsible for this mess. Good conservatives should be welcoming the electoral tsunami that is about to wipe Republicans off the map- after all, they are the ones always preaching about personal responsibility, right?
The only thing I do not understand is how there are still some reasonably intelligent people out the who would vote for Johnny Drama and Bible Spice. It makes absolutely no sense to me, other than raw tribalism.
]
night, folks 🙂 🙂 🙂
I stopped reading after this line of utter BS
[Obama’s terrorist ties, which are extremely extensive and barely covered by the media.]
Actually, it was the last line! Good thing I stopped 😉
Has John McCain been reading John Howards campaign notes for Howard tried this attack on the man tactic and it didn’t work so why would an intelligent man like McCain need such a tactic.
This in looking like a real Republican bloodbath, Middle America appears to be swinging really hard.
[Obama’s terrorist ties, which are extremely extensive and barely covered by the media.]
Oh not The Media again! It is always brainwashing everyone. 😀
Mr Greenwald has a bit to say about McCains new tactics and he’s not very impressed. It’s sad that a basically decent guy like McCain has sunk so low.
[John McCain — speaking in New Mexico — delivered one of the ugliest, nastiest, most invective-filled personality attacks a major candidate has ever delivered, blatantly designed to stoke raw racial resentments and depict Obama as a Manchurian candidate funded by secret Arab Terrorist sources — a truly unstable and hate-mongering rant filled with lines like these, delivered with an angry scowl to screaming, howling, booing throngs, while Cindy McCain stood behind him shaking her head in disgust at each fact she heard about the Black Terrorist daring to challenge her husband.]
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
[Has John McCain been reading John Howards campaign notes ]
I think he is trying to do to Obama what George W Bush did to you during the 2000 Republican primary.
Julie, can you please link to things rather than cutting and pasting large volumes of text.
[changing my EV guess]
Oi!! Not fair! 🙂 I’m stuck with Colorado as my “over the line” state, when Florida is looking good to do the trick – 60% on intrade
I would drop Maine and Washington.
Kerry won both comfortably enough.
Pretty damning indictment on the Democrats. Shame!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=exxVZTKq1vA
gee that NRCC plays it pretty stright. I do like an unbiased view of things.
Next GP can you give us a link from the Liberal Party web site saying Turnbull is a financial genius as proof that Rudd and Swan don’t know what they’re doing…
hey, we’re not alone!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24461769-5012572,00.html
[In Australia, 76 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Senator Obama, to Senator McCain’s 10 per cent.
When asked if they were paying attention to the campaign, 85 per cent of Australians said they were, with 24 per cent of claiming a high level of interest. ]
ShowsON
I think mccain is close to drawing a line under arizona onwards.
methinks a handful of states is all mccain will end up garnering
i want to change my prediction from 326 to 348 juliem (pls)
[Pretty damning indictment on the Democrats. Shame!]
GP, that video says that the Repubs saw that something was wrong in 03 right? Weren’t they in power in Congress then as well? If they wanted something done, couldn’t they have done it?
3
[The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World}
Actually Finns, most of the world is saying they would prefer Obama.
Ok, things are officially getting stupid:
[McCain linked to private group in Iran-Contra case
The U.S. Council for World Freedom was part of an international organization linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America. The group was dedicated to stamping out communism around the globe.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20081007/mccain-iran-contra/
The mud is now being flung thick and fast on both sides. (good for Obama for showing he ain’t going to be pushed around like some weak a*se John Kerry; but bad that he is – in a perfect world sense)
But going for McCain for links to Iran-Contra? Hell the entire US Government was linked to them, Reagan, Bush et al etc were in bed all the freakin way.
What next? Ollie North and McCain having dinner at Perugino’s?
Now they are looking for McCain to pwn Obama in tomorrow (Tuesday night US ).
I highly doubt it.
The problem for McCain is the electorate is well used to republican slander and mud slinging now. Just doesn’t have the same effect. Oh, and he is looking old. Real old.
Also notice the Tories in Canada are slipping. Majority Government looks a forlorn hope. However the Libs are tanking so its back to minority tory government.
No 41
Communism is a bad thing, Reagan was overwhelmingly popular thanks to his virulent anti-communist tendencies and I doubt Obama’s amateur attempt at mud-slinging will stick.
you have a strange definition of communism son.
It dosent need to stick. He is winning. Thats the point. McCains mud needs to stick and so far it aint.
[Also notice the Tories in Canada are slipping. ]
Harper is getting into all sorts of trouble for idiotic plagiarism, including stealing a whole speech from our greatest PM, John Winston Howard:
[A few days earlier, it was revealed that large parts of a speech Mr. Harper gave as Opposition leader in 2003 — urging Canada to send troops to Iraq — were copied from an address by then-Australian prime minister John Howard.]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081004.wharperplagiarism1004/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
10
Finns, are you channelling Frank Sinatra or something.
[you have a strange definition of communism son.]
I don’t believe I provided a definition for you to critique!
[He is winning. Thats the point.]
Obama’s lead is quite tenuous given how unpopular the current president is. McCain is certainly not out of the race.
Charity begins at home. if Obama cannot heal and unite his own country. He cannot hope to likewise for the World. He will be too busy fighting the bush fires in his own backyard.
I am continuously amazed at the density of the Obama supporters here. just because I criticise Obama, they automatically assume that I support McCain or want McCain to win. They are both duds.
I have said it too many times already, one more time wont hurt. the best candidate is not even on the ticket.
GP @ 47
Your chronological correlation with McCain may be blinding you, but Obama is romping home.
“It’s the economy, stupid”.
Yep death squads good; communism in any form bad.
That type of BS is what got America into the foreign policy mess it is now.
It’s why Vietnam was such a f*ck up of a war. It’s why they propped up Saddam (that was Reagan too wasn’t it?)
Just because I think the mud on McCain won’t really stick on this one doesn’t mean I think the policy was anything other than unadulterated shite.
Pretty much every government the USA propped up to serve as a “baulk against communism” was corrupt, sadistic and economically cruel.