Presidential election minus 29 days

As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).

October 1-8 Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Pennsylvania 51.3 40.6 2552 21
Michigan 51.1 41.3 531 17
Washington 53.0 43.6 700 11
New Hampshire 52.6 43.3 2160 4
Minnesota 51.1 42.2 3073 10
Wisconsin 51.2 44.3 1531 10
New Mexico 46.8 42.2 1159 5
Maine 51.0 46.6 500 4
Ohio 49.3 44.9 6622 20
Virginia 49.6 45.4 2891 13
Nevada 49.9 46.2 1768 5
Colorado 48.5 45.2 2110 9
Florida 49.3 46.0 2250 27
North Carolina 48.6 46.0 3113 15
Missouri 49.7 47.5 1000 11
Indiana 45.5 48.7 1477 11
Others – – – 182 163
RCP/Total 49 43.9 – 364 174

As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.

UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Presidential election minus 29 days”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. No 49

    If you’re implying that I’m aged, you’d be wrong. You’d also be ageist and discriminatory. Gotta love hypocrisy and double standards from NoBama supporters.

    [but Obama is romping home.]

    As I said, Bush is the most unpopular president on record, yet Obama’s lead is a few points.

    If you think that constitutes a romp, you’ve been drinking too much Kool-aid.

  2. [Obama’s lead is quite tenuous, given how unpopular the current president is ]

    Ah the old, we’re so bad you should be beating us by more gambit.

    I’ll take an 8 point lead in Gallup as sizeable enough.

  3. FINNS
    #3
    “Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is.”
    Correct , So whilst Obama is a ‘left’ policy vacuum , has a sleezy past & is a serial liar on events , to elitist liberals that does not matter , not at all ……just th elitist liberal mirage matters , …….for Obamabots it all stalled on th ‘yes we can’ button , and it has always been

    And th Obamabot golden rule including marsupials has been to personaly attack th messenger including amigos you , and all there 000’s of posts hav beeen reely disinformation on anything adverse Obama then anti MCain , anti Hillary anti Palin and anti anyone & everything but not pro why Obama (except being a non Bush)…an intelelctual vacuum

  5. Palins May Owe Tens of Thousands of Dollars in Back Taxes

    When Sarah Palin accepted John McCain’s offer to be his running mate, she probably didn’t fully realize what being in the national spotlight meant. For example, your tax returns get to be analyzed in public (for free) by miscellaneous tax experts. Gov. Palin actually lives in Wasilla, a suburb of Anchorage, but the state capital is in Juneau, 500 miles away as the crow flies (assuming they have crows in Alaska). On the many nights she stayed at home, she claimed to have been away from the capital on business and was reimbursed $17,000 by the state for this “travel.” Being paid a per diem for staying in your own home is ethically dicey but probably legal since “away on business” is probably defined as “not near your office.” However, Palin was also paid $25,000 to reimburse her husband and children for being away from “home” (Juneau) which she did not list as income. A D.C. tax lawyer and two law school professors specializing in tax law have concluded that if the State of Alaska wants to pay the governor to take her family on “business trips” that is its good right, but the money received is taxable income under the internal revenue code and the Palins should have declared it and paid tax on it, which they did not.

  6. At the moment on intrade Obama is up 353 to 185; RCP no toss ups has him winning 364-174. What do you need GP to have the polls suggesting a romp? Obama hitting 400?

  7. [I have said it too many times already, one more time wont hurt. the best candidate is not even on the ticket.]

    True. Swarzenegger wasn’t born in the US. What a bummer.

  8. 57 Dario – I happen to agree that the US could do a lot worse than Arnold. (not sure if you were joking).

    Arnold v Hillary. Now there would have been a debate worth watching!

  10. [57 Dario – I happen to agree that the US could do a lot worse than Arnold. (not sure if you were joking).]

    Yes, I was joking

    [Arnold v Hillary. Now there would have been a debate worth watching!]

    I think I’d rather shoot myself

  11. A landslide like Nixon won for his second term is unlikely as the pattern of State based votes has changed……. eg no Republican is likely to win California nor most of
    the East,,,,,,,,,,, nor will a democratic win Texas or most of the south
    The polls now are suggesting Mr Obama will win most of the swing states

  14. Enemy Marsupial , thought ‘Kool-aid’ was what held your data together as it lead way from adverse Obama info , or does it just support th branchs

  15. [I think I’d rather shoot myself]

    Well then I guess it was all for the best then!

    I still think Ahnold has done ok with Ca. His environmental polices are good (have to admit I have not examined his other aspect with a fine tooth comb)

  16. Good point, Mick@61. As much as people here may not like to admit/discuss, marketing/media strategy has come a long way since the 1970’s. It is no co-incidence that elections have all become very close in OECD countries where sophisticated marketing strategies are the norm. Given that, the Dem lead in the current polls is quite remarkable.

  20. No 65

    Arnie has had a lot of trouble passing the budget recently and there are now concerns he’ll need to seek an emergency loan from the Feds. Part of the problem is that the budget cycle is too erratic, relying heavily on consumption taxes derived from the holiday season and spring.

  21. [Charity begins at home. if Obama cannot heal and unite his own country. ]
    That’s why Biden said the U.S. would have to cut its foreign aid budget during the debate.
    [He will be too busy fighting the bush fires in his own backyard.]
    You should write explicitly what you are referring to instead of just reverting to innuendo.
    [I am continuously amazed at the density of the Obama supporters here.]
    LOL! Great argument.
    [I have said it too many times already, one more time wont hurt. the best candidate is not even on the ticket.]
    We know this, you’ve said it too many times already.
    [If you’re implying that I’m aged, you’d be wrong. You’d also be ageist and discriminatory. Gotta love hypocrisy and double standards from NoBama supporters.]
    Shall I post you a Kleenex?
    [As I said, Bush is the most unpopular president on record, yet Obama’s lead is a few points.]
    I think Truman still has him on that score, but it is getting very close.
    [Correct , So whilst Obama is a ‘left’ policy vacuum , has a sleezy past & is a serial liar on events , to elitist liberals that does not matter , not at all ……just th elitist liberal mirage matters , …….for Obamabots it all stalled on th ‘yes we can’ button , and it has always been]
    Ron, do you realise in the American context “liberal” means “left wing”? You say he is a left policy vacumn, but then you say he is a liberal elitist. Your claim he is elitist needs to have a discussion with the claim he is a left policy vacumn.
    [And th Obamabot golden rule including marsupials has been to personaly attack th messenger including amigos you ]
    Well, I attack your arguments. You ignore my arguments, then attack “Obamabots”. Again, you need to get the end of your sentences to talk things over with the start of your sentences.
    [At the moment on intrade Obama is up 353 to 185; RCP no toss ups has him winning 364-174. What do you need GP to have the polls suggesting a romp? Obama hitting 400?]
    Whatever Hilary Clinton would’ve got plus 75 more.

  24. [Yeah, the game change is for the worse. Over $10 trillion in debt? Are these imbeciles for real?]
    That’s what happens when a President is ideologically committed to tax cuts that the budget and economy can’t afford.

    That’s what happens when politicians are driven by ideology instead of reality.

  25. [Enemy Marsupial , thought ‘Kool-aid’ was what held your data together…]

    Holy plastic dashboard Jesuses Batman! I’ll tell you what Kool-aid is Ron… my Jonestown shout.

    The acid test quip was just me being a smart arse. It’s a Tom Wolfe Novel
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Electric_Kool-Aid_Acid_Test

    Kool aid is cordial, made infamous for a while because it’s what the 900+ people in Jonestown used to mix with cyanide to kill themselves with.

  31. Enemy Marsupia
    “I’ll tell you what Kool-aid is Ron… my Jonestown shout.
    The acid test quip was just me being a smart arse’

    well we agree on something , Jonestown was not and is not a laughing matter

  32. [well we agree on something , Jonestown was not and is not a laughing matter]
    Why not? Who sets the rules on what can and can not be laughed at?

    The idea that laughing should be policed is a liberal elitist notion.

  35. FWIW and it’s probably not a lot I was lunching with a bunch of principals from small independent real estate agencies. Not a radical lot usually. The talk got round to the US election and the overwhelming consensus was that Obama had to win or we would be all roo-ted. None were impressed by Palin. Frankly I was amazed. Of course they don’t vote in US elections…

    Also slightly off thread they were either happy or neutral about Rudd’s performance to date.

  36. It is obvious that laughter has caused the current crisis. The humor ‘spread’ between short term ‘cheap’ jokes and longer wave ‘sublime’ humour has lead the world into its current crisis. I think we need Reserve Bank intervention to buy up cheap jokes.

  37. [It’s deadly serious :-D]

    STOP IT! 😀

    [It is obvious that laughter has caused the current crisis. The humor ’spread’ between short term ‘cheap’ jokes and longer wave ’sublime’ humour has lead the world into its current crisis. I think we need Reserve Bank intervention to buy up cheap jokes.]
    Contact Possum, he has one above going really, really cheap.

  41. The Australia for Obama groups are holding trivia nights soon. This thread is a source of lots of questions, even if the answers are a bit dodgy sometimes. Which 2 states don’t have a winner-takes-all electoral college votes system? Is the allocation of EV’s per State based on population? Which is the second largest State EV wise? Where is Dick Cheney hiding? (Perhaps they should take him moose shooting with the Governor.)

  43. Enemy Marsupial , realise possums do alot of strange things up trees especialy with data , but cloning a shows amateur to defend you has not been one of your success’s , this ‘fan’ sort of makes your ayres perilousness worse

  45. [And once they’ve bought Steve Fielding – what the hell do they do with him?]

    Chuck him in a Koala suit and drop him off at a railway station with a bucket

  48. [but cloning a shows amateur to defend you has not been one of your success’s , this ‘fan’ sort of makes your ayres perilousness worse]
    WTF?

  50. what another egg head Michael Moore believing th terrorists did not execute 9/11 , yea terorists just won’t even exist in Obamabotic heaven…get reel , Rudd like Palin believes terrorists ar a threat

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