Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

Brisbane’s Courier-Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland voters showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50.4-49.6 at the November 2007 election. Both parties are down on the primary vote – Labor from 42.9 per cent to 41 per cent and the Coalition from 44.5 per cent to 44 per cent – while the Greens are up from 5.6 per cent to 9 per cent. Also included are questions on preferred leader (Kevin Rudd 57 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull 34 per cent) and economic management.

The first Essential Research poll conducted entirely on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch should be through either this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: No bounce for Turnbull from Essential Research, whose two-week rolling average has moved a point in Labor’s favour to the Nelson-era level of 58-42. Also featured are leadership approval ratings and questions on preferred Treasurer (Swan 34 per cent, Bishop 19 per cent), Kevin Rudd’s overseas travel (51 per cent believe he should have gone to the US, 30 per cent say he shouldn’t) and the value of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. I couldnt remember the name (Hinkler either).
    Neville does have a good profile and its his personal vote that has kept the seat National but for gods sakes the Nats need to get ride of just about everyone of them over 60. They need new young blood in there or they’ll be sorry.

  5. Dickson will be the first LNP federal seat to fall. The very small margin for Dutton and the loss of incumbence added to demographic trends will sink Dutton next time.

  6. Glen

    Between 1500-1000 people a week are moving to SE Qld. They are divided into two groups, retirees and workers.

    Unfortunately for the Libs the are more of the latter group, this has been occuring since Joh days. Despite the doom and gloom about house prices, they are still booming in retirementville. So the workers need to find a cheaper place to live.

    This pushes them up the Bruce Hwy – hence Mal Brough losing his seat. This will not stop in the foreseeable future.

  7. I disagree. Dutton will increase his majority Dickson had an unprecidented swing against it and if it wasnt going to fall in the 07 landslide then Rudd wont win it in 2010. Especially considering Peter’s high profile i shouldnt think he’d have any troubles.

  8. Rubbish, Mal Brough would probably win Longman if he ran again in 2010, especially against that nobody! Longman’s the margin is only 3.5% and he’d only need half of those who backed him in 2004 that didnt in 2007 to get him over the line.

  10. There’s a redistribution in the pipe so speculating about individual seats isn’t very useful right now.

    I agree with Glen that the Nats (if they still exist in 2010) will struggle. With De-Anne Kelly gone their Qld Reps are Truss, Neville and Scott – all dinosaurs. In the Senate they have Boswell, another dinosaur. Joyce is their only mammalian member. If their Reps members retire only Maranoa is safe, the Libs would pinch Wide Bay on its current boundaries and maybe Hinkler too. Maybe Joyce should switch to the Reps.

  11. MayoFeral @49

    George Orwell got it so right: Freedom is slavery. But to imply any kind of philosophical connection (ironic or no) between Orwell and Howard is to elevate the shniffling little twirp well beyond his place in history.

    Janette (gently in her husband’s his ear, at the time of the Baxter incarcerations): They’re not real children luv; not like ours.

  12. I agree Adam, if they dont want a Fed merger just get Barns into the Lower House.
    Agreed they did get a young one in Gippsland but the average age of their MPs must be 60!

    Joyce to Maranoa, and if they are smart they’ll try and get Larry Anthony back too someone young and experienced.

  13. Glen

    Saying it doesn’t make it so. Dutton is now a nobody in opposition. Will he be waving the flag as an LNP candidate at the next election? Even formerly loyal Liberal voters may baulk at that prospect in a federal election.

  14. Well Anthony had his chance to come back in 2007 when he could have run for Page but declined. Apparently he’s happier making money in the private sector.

    Mallee will be at risk if Forrest retires, although Turnbull’s just put him on the front bench I think. He’ll be 60 next year.

    In NSW Cobb, Coulton, Hartsuyker and Hull are relatively young, although Cobb is hardly foreman material.

  17. Adam,

    Isn’t Larry Anthony a Director of ABC. Their demise might make a career in Parliament a more secure sinecure. Just like Costello has worked out!

  19. [However, the two party leaders were tied on total disapproval ratings of 30 per cent each.

    “That’s got to be a plus for Mr Turnbull,” Essential’s manager of federal political relations Chris Johnson told AAP.]

    Sometimes I don’t quite get the logic.

    Rudd has been right out in front of the public center of focus for a long while now. It is inevitable that any policy you make will upset a section of the community and along with the negative memes and spin that has been regularly coming from the media – a disapproval rating of 30% doesn’t sound like an issue to me.

    However Turnbull coming from a lower profile than Rudd, talked about in quasi Messianic terms by the media prior to his ascension and touted as the leader the Liberals can have success with – comes ready made with a disapproval rating of 30%

    I would have thought the early rating of 30% for Turnbull in comparison to Rudd would be the issue of concern.

  22. [I would have thought the early rating of 30% for Turnbull in comparison to Rudd would be the issue of concern.]

    I agree. Pollsters should just shut up and deliver the raw numbers as they repeatedly show they know nothing about analysis of them.

  24. No bounce for Turnbull from Essential Research, whose two-week rolling average has moved a point in Labor’s favour to the Nelson-era level of 58-42. Also featured are leadership approval ratings and questions on preferred Treasurer (Swan 34 per cent, Bishop 19 per cent), Kevin Rudd’s overseas travel (51 per cent believe he should have gone to the US, 30 per cent say he shouldn’t), and the value of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

  27. [“TONY ABBOTT has attacked any taxpayer-funded paid maternity scheme that delivers more help to working mothers than stay-at-home mums.”]

    So Abbott is saying that ‘stay at home mums’ (mums that don’t have/want a job) should get 18? weeks pay after they have a baby, the same as the working mum might? Another baby super duper bonus in effect – by the tax payer. Wonder if he will produce a policy with funding for that idea?

  28. William, I implore you to ban all infantile references to major political parties and politicians.

    Too hard to enforce, though I agree people shouldn’t do it.

    Glen @ 76: Never heard from them again.

  30. I don’t like it.

    It’s not like education. Nobody has a patent on education therefore we all have a right to it. It’s not like health as anybody can fall sick or get injured. Or transport that we can all use.

    Surely tax payers should not be funding paid maternity leave. What about tax the payers who don’t have a kid? At the very most, they should not be getting any more than the dole!

    I’m right wing on this one.

  33. I wonder if the moderately cerebrally challenged former religiously inclined person has cleared his point of view with the messiah. ?

  35. Dario,

    After 72, one can only surmise you are more full of yourself than Malcolm Turnbull.

    Now that is a big statement!

  36. Now we’re standin’ on the corner of a world gone home
    Nobody’s changed, nobody’s been saved
    And I’m feelin’ cold and alone
    I guess I’m lucky, I smile a lot
    But sometimes I wish for more than I’ve got…
    “What About me, it isn’t fair

    Get used to it Centre. 🙂

  37. Boswell has ‘done a Howard’ and promised to leave part way through his Senate turn. Whether he will or not is anyone’s guess. Really the man is a joke and I find it amazing he was Senate leader for 17 years, overseeing a plummet in the Natoinals Senate vote in Queensland.

  40. [Dario,

    After 72, one can only surmise you are more full of yourself than Malcolm Turnbull.

    Now that is a big statement!]

    Based on what GG? Pollsters like Gary Morgan and this guy try to make political conclusions from their numbers to make their polls more ‘juicy’, and most of the time its complete rubbish. Why shouldn’t we point it out?

  42. It would appear so, Ozpolitics. Their methodology is similar to that of the ACNielsen online panel polling during the federal election, which consistently had the Labor vote in the high 50s (not that their phone polling was much different).

  44. ruawake, you know that I am all for a level playing field and for the less fortunate be given every chance to make a success of it, but paid maternity leave should not be funded by an amount any more than the dole at the very most by the taxpayer.

  48. Centre, we all pay for stuff we don’t use as a society, or stuff that’s passed us by. One of the points of doing parental leave economic support is that securely attached infants do much better developmentally (also in terms of health outcomes), and eventually as productive citizens. Our society is already challenged by fractures a mile deep in relation to our connectedness to one another.

  50. I can see some employers, especially very small businesses, employing older post family women. Not that is bad a thing if it makes use of an under utilised older workforce.

    It is all in the implementation of course when and if they make a policy on it.

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