Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

Brisbane’s Courier-Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland voters showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50.4-49.6 at the November 2007 election. Both parties are down on the primary vote – Labor from 42.9 per cent to 41 per cent and the Coalition from 44.5 per cent to 44 per cent – while the Greens are up from 5.6 per cent to 9 per cent. Also included are questions on preferred leader (Kevin Rudd 57 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull 34 per cent) and economic management.

The first Essential Research poll conducted entirely on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch should be through either this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: No bounce for Turnbull from Essential Research, whose two-week rolling average has moved a point in Labor’s favour to the Nelson-era level of 58-42. Also featured are leadership approval ratings and questions on preferred Treasurer (Swan 34 per cent, Bishop 19 per cent), Kevin Rudd’s overseas travel (51 per cent believe he should have gone to the US, 30 per cent say he shouldn’t) and the value of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. A swing to Labor in QLD since the last election – they’d not only hold all their seats, but also pick up Herbert, Dickson and another seat in Brisbane(its name escapes me for now). So despite the predictable MSM spin in Turnball’s favour, a good result for Rudd.

  2. Max, there might actually be something in it. The Greens vote was up 4.3 per cent to 11.9 per cent at the WA election, and they polled as much as 23.6 per cent in the seats they contested at the NT election. I suggest that Labor being in government is good for them, as they get to harvest protest votes from left-leaning voters disaffected by government actions.

  3. It appears that on primary votes there has been a swing from the Nats to the Greens. The Libs and the Greens are the only parties to record a swing in their favour. Could the LNP confusion be at work?

  4. “The poll shows the switch to Mr Turnbull has put the Coalition back in the race for the Sunshine State.”

    No Clinton it does not say any such thing. 😉

  5. The difference there is that I would have thought that given those two state governments had been in power for some time they would have, by default, given off multiple reasons for dissatisfaction in them during that time (as any long serving inevitably government does.)

    Rudd has been in power for eight months, I would have thought it’d be a bit far-fetched to suggest that around 3.5% of his support has leaked further to the left in that time given his approval. But I see your point, and voters around that side of the spectrum don’t exactly have to rally around Labor at this stage of the electoral cycle, especially given the lack of ‘anyone but Howard’ sentiment now. Either way, the next federal election will certainly be a big test in terms of the Green vote. I highly suspect they will do very well in the Senate. Not that I am particularly pleased about it 🙂

  6. [I highly suspect they will do very well in the Senate. Not that I am particularly pleased about it ]

    It will most likely mean less parties to deal with in the upper house for whoever wins government in 2010, which can be both good an bad

  7. This is interesting. I looks as though Labor may be confident enough in their polling figures to have a go at Farmer’s seat if he pulls the pin.

    [SIDELINED Liberal Pat Farmer has refused to douse speculation he might resign and trigger a by-election in his marginal seat in what would loom as the first electoral test for new Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.]

    [Labor sources said last night they would relish a by-election in Macarthur because it would be the first genuine test of the Government’s popularity.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24416570-5013404,00.html

  8. So for all Turnbull’s huffing and puffing, he has won back no ground at all in Qld. This is the kind of poll we like to see. I’m not surprised the Greens are polling well – people who didn’t believe Rudd when he said he was a conservative on many issues are now finding that he meant what he said, and some of them are moving to the Greens as the only left alternative. The ALP under Rudd is a centre party, which is how it wins elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens won a Senate seat in every state in 2010. If the result in every state in 2010 was Coalition 3, Labor 2, Green 1, the overall Senate from 2011 would be ALP 30, Coalition 36, Green 9, Ind 1. A very nice situation.

  9. The poll is misleading unlike other states where the Liberal and National parties are seperate enities in Queensland they are united as the LNP federally within Queensland. Claiming that the Nationals have a primary vote of 9 percent is wrong the LNP has a vote of 45 percent.

  10. Adam:
    There’s been some talk in Greens circles of trying to restore “workers rights” and union power to what it was before the Winter of Discontent (which as you once said, proved unions should be limited)

  11. Will Coalition federal candidates in 2010 contest their seats as “LNP” or as Libs and Nats? They still sit in the House and Senate as Libs and Nats.

    Mary, you’ll have to quote what I actually said before I can comment on that.

  12. Whoever it will be, LNP. LIN,NAT or NSDAP, the ABC web site is reporting that “business” (actually the the Australian Chamber Of Commerce And Industry – ACCI) will not be supporting the maternity leave proposals. Apparently, “administering the scheme will place higher administrative costs on businesses.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/29/2377183.htm

    I’d like to see the Whatevertheirnameis LIBs squirm out of this one.

  13. [“business” (actually the the Australian Chamber Of Commerce And Industry – ACCI) will not be supporting the maternity leave proposals]

    Shock horror. Never mind that us and the USA are the only two developed countries not to have it…

  14. The BCA supports it, but it is not surprising that ACCI – the bosses union, does not. ACCI is the peak body for all those chambers of commerce that thrive in every town and city.

    It will be interesting to see if Talcum can resist this grassroots Liberal Party lobby group.

  15. Today’s Essential Report (which Billbowe Baggins will have up any time soon) suggests that Truffles bounce might be one of the shortest in history. From my reckoning he lost every bit of his bounce in a week.

    Next Newspoll will be interesting.

  16. This is a good poll for the Coalition.

    After less than a year in office, the ALP’s vote in a vital state is essentially flat. It’ll likely drift further south by election day given the Bligh’s rotten performance and a deteriorating economy.

  17. [Today’s Essential Report (which Billbowe Baggins will have up any time soon) suggests that Truffles bounce might be one of the shortest in history. From my reckoning he lost every bit of his bounce in a week.]

    I don’t think the MSM will be reporting any polls that show his bounce waning with much fervour

  18. [This is a good poll for the Coalition.

    After less than a year in office, the ALP’s vote in a vital state is essentially flat. It’ll likely drift further south by election day given the Bligh’s rotten performance and a deteriorating economy.]

    Onya AC 😉

  19. # 26

    With good reason too. The only reason why Rudd wants a republic is to split the opposition.

    Personally, I think the entire idea of fundamentally altering our constitution and political institutions solely on the basis of political point scoring is repugnant. Trust no one other than our completely berefit of ideas PM to raise it.

  20. Labor are only ahead because of the Greens, and i suspect their vote of 9% is inflated well above what it will be in 2010, after all QLD is one of the worst if not the worst State for them.

    I’m surprised we’re as competative as we are, but well behind what we used to get in the golden years under Howie where we’d be at least 55-45 ahead.

    Although I myself am a constitutional monarchist I think Malcolm was right to say that if Rudd was a true Republican he’d wait and not call for it now. Malcolm was also right to point out Rudd was nowhere to be seen on the barracades in 1999.

    I am also quietly confident about ACT.

  21. In the past decade or so Qld has been a graveyard for Labor Federally. That is why Labor picked up 9 seats when they only achieved 50.4% of the TPP vote.

    Ignoring MoE and Galaxy – if this poll was the result at the next election Labor would gain seats in Qld.

  22. I was confident about WA and look what happened?

    Ruawake Labor won seats it should never have won in QLD, for example Forde and Flynn now if the Coalition can get its act together there we’ll easily win those seats back after all we lost both of them because the Nats and Libs ran candidates and we split our vote. Now we have the LNP in QLD and that wont happen again.

    There would be at least 2-3 seats in QLD that the LNP could pick up regardless of the Federal Result.

  23. Glen

    Do you really think that the Fed Libs will want the 9 Nats from Qld to decide who leads the party?

    Labor won seats because people voted for them, get over it. The LNP will only be allowed to be a State Party, that is why its constitution says members of the LNP can be members of another party.

    The shitfight will begin with pre-selection for the QLd election. But at least the Fibs will have a scapegoat for losing. 🙂

  24. [I was confident about WA and look what happened?]

    The Fibs, Nats and two “independents” formed Govt. Hardly a resounding success. 🙂

  25. Ruawake im sure they’ll have learnt the lesson on 3 cornered contests and how well that did us in 2007. Ruawake must you call the Liberals Fiberals? I dont use petty insults of the ALP it demeans you sir!

  26. Ah but we came from 18 seats down to win 🙂 and our last leader was a chair sniffer and we still won 🙂 see that makes it even more of a success.

  27. Muskiemp

    The Labor slow and steady creep up the Bruce will take a while to get to the Wide Bay- Burnett, it was One Nation heartland but The Greens are probably gaining some votes from Traveston Dam.

    Look to Fisher and Fairfax as the next dominos to fall.

  28. [Ruawake must you call the Liberals Fiberals?]

    Fair point Glen, I will try to retrain myself – although I cannot guarantee it. Before the last election I did post that Rat Man should be called John Howard, out of respect for the office. 🙂

  29. William, I implore you to ban all infantile references to major political parties and politicians.

    That includes rubbish like Dudd, Talcum, Krudd, Fibs, Gnats, Turnball, Tip and other such nonsense.

  30. Glen, don’t fall into the trap of thinking that Forde and Flynn are rural seats first and foremost that only fell because of a fluke.

    If the population and demographics of those two seats were frozen at 2004 levels, Labor wouldn’t have won either of them in 2007.

    Those seats are going to continue to experience not only quite rapid population growth, but even larger population substitution (where people move out of the area, being replaced by those moving in from elsewhere).

    Forde has a large urban corridor, and by large I dont mean some pissy little subdivision filled with a couple fo hundred legoland houses, I mean thousands and thousands of planned homes running into it from the east like an urban army. Forde will soon enough become a seat resembling Oxley with a small rural rump attached to it.

    Flynn is a bit different, but population change is equally dramatic and demographic change is profound. I think Flynn will become a bit of a test bed for the next 30 years or so, for which ever party can manage that type of seat well will, I reckon, also tend in the future to bag the non-metro coastal seats elsewhere in QLD and NSW.

  31. An interstinghing sidelight…

    ‘Er Indoors came home from work just now and told me her boss (a bigwig with one of the major vehicle manufacturing companies) asked her whether I thought Rudd was doing OK. She said, “Yes, he thinks they’re doing pretty good actually. Why?”

    His replay, “Oh nothing really. We just heard from some people right at tthe op of Defence that Labor weren’t doing anything at all, just marking time, and that the ADF thinks they’re pretty hopeless. The brass are worried that we won’t be able to defend ouselves if we get attacked.”

    Sack them all, Kevin.

  32. Neville had a small swing of -2.12% in Hinkler. If you look at swing moving up the Bruce Hwy from Brisbane it is not yet in the winnable area. Maybe in 2013.

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