Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition”

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  1. Is it just me or does Wilson Tuckey as pictured on mumble.com.au look like a Nelson/Howard/Turnbull hybrid? (with a bit of imagination of course)

    As for Turnbull’s first poll, (with a nod again to Brent) Turnbull strikes me as a conviction politician, loads of charisma, ready to reinvigorate the Liberal Party and take the electorate by force, etc, etc. Get what I’m saying?

  8. “Tomorrow the Liberals’ federal executive will determine if the party’s federal council should be advised to register the LNP as the Queensland division of the Liberal Party. ”

    So if the Qld Nats get to vote for the Lib leader I wonder how the numbers stack up? Is this why the leadership was sorted this week?

  9. I’m waiting until Cossies book comes down to 25 bucks then ill consider purchasing it.

    45 dollars you’ve got to be kidding me!

    Me thinks Tony Smith is a goner, one of the more vocal Nelson backers.
    I suspect Pyne to get a better job and Keenan to be promoted both Turnbulls numbers men.

  10. Has anyone else had a read of the Shrike’s analysis today? Would be interested to know what others thought of it. The most interesting part I found to be his observation that Turnbull has little real support in the party, given his relatively short time as a parliamentarian, and now, in the spotlight of the leadership, little time to build same. So, apart from some initial bbbounce in support on the 2ppv, it may not last. I’ve noted some commentary saying that the global economy flatlining, or even the U.S. economy flatlining, will favour any non-incumbent, given what happened politically with the onset of the Great Depression, but I’m not so sure. That people behaved in a particular way politically in relation to a catastrophic economic event, doesn’t, in my view, necessarily mean they will behave the same the next time there’s a catastrophic economic event. Surely, it would depend as much as anything on how incumbent gov’t. responded to such events, maybe also whether or not people thought the gov’t. was able to have done anything effective to stave off or mitigate the effects? My go at the next Newspoll is 54 ALP, 46 Coalition.

  11. It’s interesting HSO. He makes a good point about the republic and climate change…

    The fact that Turnbull is apparently considering promoting Sophie Mirabella suggests he has certainly in the thrall of the far right of the party.

    Desire to lead and desire to win makes for very strange bedfellows…

    The problem for MT however, is can he keep down his desire to remake the Party policy in his own image. I doubt Abbott, Mirabella, Hawke, Bishop et al will ever get to a point where they will stomach a “small ‘l’ liberal party”.

  13. Rudd tried as much as he could to avoid answering Kerry’s question with respect to Turnbull’s wealth. Rudd refused to order his subordinates to cease the attacks. Hypocrite.

    I also thought there were more double standards when he criticised Turnbull with respect to his comments on the Reserve Bank which Rudd say have consequences for the stability and confidence in the financial system. Yet, in January this year Swan was talking about inflation genies being out of the bottle.

    Rudd is despicable.

  16. Hmmm, i dunno that he has the power to deal with Nick, however if he’s leader for longer than Nelson i suspect maybe Eric Abetz could take charge in the Senate perhaps?

    I will laugh if Abbott keeps his lower grade portfolio after this reshuffle!

  17. Don’t hold back there, GP. You’ll probably be calling me a c****e for thinking that in my opinion, that Rudd did well in the interview with Kerry O’Brien and that he is growing into the job.

  21. GP

    I doubt she’d survive long – I’m sure a lot of Aboriginal people want to do something to her after her actions in February

  22. Talcum would be wise to pick someone who was not a cabinet minister in the Howard Govt. for IR.

    Else the attack is predictable “You supported Work Choices”. Must be a cleanskin. 😉

  23. Grog @ 161. Yes, if he can’t take the party with him, where he wants to go, the Shrike and you, may well be right. I hadn’t heard or read that he was considering promoting Sophie Mirabella. Well, well. If Turnbull denies his own values in the service of his ambition, he will indeed be dead in the water, because he won’t be able to stand it.

  25. TP @ 109,

    “Gillard speaks extremely well,a pleasure to hear and read. And none can hold her steely gaze, just ask Howard.”

    Ought to be real fun to see her going eye to eye with Turnbull next week 😉 …… [Rudd in NYC all week]

  26. No 168. Hello GP. Yep I know you are. I was being polite and complying with William’s wishes. You know, treating other people as people?

  27. The fact I struggle to remember what portfolios Abbott and Hockey currently have suiggests, they haven’t really cut through.

    Coudn’t believe Hockey’s questions today about Medibank – he was thisclose to suggesting the fund is about to go belly up.

  28. No 171

    Mirabella’s unborn baby was labelled a Demon by Belinda “Don’t You Know Who I Am?” Neale; so I’m sure she would weather being called a fascist racist by the Aboriginal industry.

  29. 175: I’m with you there. Also for all those who at the start of the year keep going on about Rudd’s control freak nature; the fact he feels he can leave Julia in charge during a parliamentary week suggests he’s not worried about her dropping the ball.

  30. Bronwyn Bishop should get booted out of the shadow cabinet – how the hell did she end up there in the first place???

    As for Hockey – stick him back in health (I’d think he’d be better suited for that) and put Abbott as shadow I-R or immigration – they’re two portfolios where his partisanship may actually be good for the Coalition.

    Minchin should go back to Finance, Bishop (Julie) to Treasury and Dutton (perhaps) to I-R…

  31. ruawake @ 169. Introducing Malcolm by Clarke and Daw, another miniature masterpiece. And, GP, before you start frothing at the mouth about them being c*****s, who lambast only the LNP or Coalition, a couple of weeks ago, they did a brilliant number on Rudd. Cracked me up, it did.

  32. Good to see Ms Mirabella took a break from her maternity leave to vote for Talcum. I wish her a long and fruitful life expanding the Mirabella family.

  33. No 181

    HSO, I like the ABC. Indeed I rarely watch other FTA channels any more. Radio National 630 Sydney is permanently tuned in on my car radio. (Interesting aside, it is 666 in Canberra. LOL)

    I have a problem with the balance of some of its journalists; namely Liz Jackson and Tony Jones.

  35. No 180

    Bronny is not a member of the Shadow Cabinet. She’s in the outer shadow ministry as spokesperson for Veteran’s Affairs. Which suits her well.

  36. I find GP’s assertion of “taxation is legalised theft” as a fact a bit disingenious, even if we accept GP’s own definition of what theft is. The ‘Collins Australian Pocket Dictionary of the English Language’ (which I’m sure everyone agrees to be THE definition of English Language Usage) defines thefts as the act of stealing and stealing to be “taking from someone without permission or unlawfully”. A “legalised illegal act” would like saying a pregnant virgin.

    And if we use GP’s own defintion (or make great play on the OR in the Collins definition) “taxation is legalised theft” is still not a fact, at best it is a truism that uses emotive language to stir sentiments in the audience, a real ramble-rousing statement, something the Daily Telegraph would bandy about. “War is murder” is another great one.

  38. GP @ 185,

    Surely there’s someone better qualified (and with a bigger political future) than Bronwyn Bishop in the Coalition ranks…

    Maybe Margaret May or another prominent Turnbull backer will get Veteran’s Affairs in the reshuffle, while Brownyn can go back to the backbench, where she can kill time before she gets turfed out in the next preselection for Mackellar (or she chooses to retires…)

  40. There you go, GP, if you’ve got a heart beat and a sense of humour, you’re probably a human being, with all of our foibles, capacity for mistakes, exposure to adverse events, and all of the joy, contentment, creativity and love of which we are capable.
    Lighten up, kiddo, your political opponents are not necessarily your enemies.

  41. No 186

    Would you not agree that capital punishment is legalised murder? It certainly fulfils the mens rea and actus reus required for murder.

    The act of taxation also fulfils, in my view, the mens rea and actus reus for theft. The only difference is that taxation is legal.

  43. No 188

    Bronny is popular in the Veteran community and she is perfectly able to administer its fairly blithe responsibilities anyway.

  44. Generic Person

    I see you’ve fought a lone battle arguing your case taxation is ‘legalised theft’ I agree with you it is

    paye wage earnes pay there correct tax , and non paye earners hav a discretion under th Act to minimise there tax liability , and given th thousands of pages in Taxation Act coices ar a plenty for even an average accountant , then there’s more creative share type schemes , trusts , overseas tax havens , coillins/pitt street farmers …thats th legal side…of course in trading business receiving cash always accounts for all cash received as revenue …then there ar those end year stocktakes coincidently done after a result is achieved…and auditors yes numerous corporate failures show there prudential worth

    So all in all Generic person , agree taxation is legalised theft , for whom paye tax payers ar paying for those ‘theeving’ non paye tax payers

  46. 173 HSO I got it from here:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,24366321-601,00.html

    The Australian Online also understands the new Liberal leader will reward several ambitious backbenchers who backed him in this week’s leadership ballot with posts in the outer ministry, including Liberal MP Scott Morrison and key NSW Right backer senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells.
    Mr Turnbull is also tipped by insiders to reward feisty Victorian Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella, another conservative who broke her maternity leave to vote in the leadership ballot.

    “feisty” must be one of those irrgular verbs – I am feisty; you are aggressive; he is a belligerent, illogical extremist….

  47. Mea culpa William. I left this screen on the tail end of the discussion and wandered off to watch a few episodes of Blackadder, came back and posted, and it seems the conversation had moved on. As usual I end up striking when the iron is cold.

  49. No 196

    I’ve had the utmost pleasure of meeting Mirabella and Senator Fierravanti-Wells, as well as well as listening to them speak. To the displeasure of lefties, I’d argue they are both inspirational women! 😀

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