Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition”

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  2. No 201

    No it isn’t a racist term and I resent your implication that I’m a racist.

    The Aboriginal Industry is that which squandered the billions of dollars of transfers to Aborigines and yet they are still are the most disadvantaged people in our society.

  5. Well, in trepidation of the Moderator’s boot, I will make further comment: the fact you are asking for my agreeance dispels it as a “fact”. A fact wouldn’t be agreed upon, its a fact. If I bothered to pay attention to the statements “capital punishment is legalised murder” and “taxation is legalised theft” I probably would agree as I probably would with “War is murder” (that doesn’t make them “facts” though) its just I steer clear of such statements due to their emotive content – they are not worth saying unless you are desiring to carry your audience with you into the streets bearing flaming torches and pitchforks. Their intellectual content is worthless.

  8. GP

    no white racist – including Sophie Mirabella – gets to decide what’s racist or not – she’s been called out for being racist by the Aboriginals over her behaviour with regard to the Stolen Generations and i agree with the Aboriginals on that

  9. No 205

    I disagree that their intellectual content is vacuous. It is a worthy debate to have. My argument is purely one from a legal perspective, whereas opponents justify taxation with a theory of a social contract.

    For the record, governments would not function without taxation and as such I don’t advocate for the abolition of taxation.

  16. As one of PollBludger’s few (perhaps only) triplej listeners, I actually heard something that made Christopher Pyne look good today. Pyne has been on about fair trade chocolate recently and has written to Rudd about it. Of course, as soon as I heard Pyne was doing anything, my BS detector switched my brain off to conserve energy.

    But it turns out that Pyne is on to something. 70% of the world’s cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast and Ghana. There have been suggestions that it’s pretty crappy over there. Triplej had a reporter on who had gone there. Almost all the cocoa is harvested by children who are captive slaves, often sold from surrounding countries like Mali. There are 200,000 of them. Amazingly the kids didn’t even know that the cocoa pods they were harvesting were used to make chocolate.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23509866-2682,00.html

  21. I had just formulated a iron clad argument that would carry Australia into the green technocracy of the future when Rupert Murdoch reached across cyberspace and sunffed out my comment

  23. [I take it no one heard me on Hack last week then.]

    I hope it’s available on-line. Sorry to miss it.

    The show is getting rave reviews too.

  27. No 220

    Oh, and I’m sure our inglorious Treasurer is an authority on economy of speech. The bumbling economic-illiterate can barely enunciate a sentence without resorting to lame cliches.

  29. No 216

    As the Economist concludes:

    [Fairtrade food is designed to raise poor farmers’ incomes. It is sold at a higher price than ordinary food, with a subsidy passed back to the farmer. But prices of agricultural commodities are low because of overproduction. By propping up the price, the Fairtrade system encourages farmers to produce more of these commodities rather than diversifying into other crops and so depresses prices—thus achieving, for most farmers, exactly the opposite of what the initiative is intended to do. And since only a small fraction of the mark-up on Fairtrade foods actually goes to the farmer—most goes to the retailer—the system gives rich consumers an inflated impression of their largesse and makes alleviating poverty seem too easy.]

    http://artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/articles/economist-goodfood.htm

    Fair Trade is nonsense.

  32. Initial polls on Turnbull’s satisfaction rating rather than PPM more important to see whether middle voters buy Turnbull as a silvertail or an acceptable but toffy politcan and his republic involvement will aid him If Turnbull gets over that , he will not be a pushover like Nelson & limit Labors 2010 election likely win below a landslide

    Base Liberal vote should rise 2% to 3% but some of that will get lost in 2 PP figure with downward % movement in ‘others’ and Greens

  35. The reason African countries are poor is that their products are shut of their natural market, western Europe, by EU protectionism, which exists mostly to protect French farmers and the politicians they vote for. The person most responsible for the perpetuation of poverty in Africa over the past decade has been Jacques Chirac. Africa needs free trade, not Fairtrade or any other gimmick.

  37. Grog back @ 196, I think it was. If that’s true, he’s sold his soul, and both he & the LNP are buggered. Both twin bases will desert them, particularly as they don’t have control of the pork anymore.

  38. William,

    Do you have a link to the radio show that you were on?

    And as for Fairtrade – what a load of utter rubbish! And the fact that a Liberal party frontbencher is endorsing the concept shows just how far from the concept of liberalism the party has drifted…

  42. GP @ 233. Sigh! It won’t be out till next week, hence the competition to try and guess the result. Really, GP, the sooner you learn that politics is about more than just stating your own prejudice/s about any given topic, and start listening to people who may have a much wider range of experience than yourself, the sooner you may have something interesting to say.
    William, at the risk of being banned, GP really is boring as he won’t concede when people have demonstrably demolished his assertions, and just keeps repeating them, over and over, and over.

  43. Maxine looking very glamorous on Q&A tonight and is very sharp.

    Tony Abbott is following the same pattern as his fellow Libs on this program.

    Trying to defend the indefensible and getting a bit cranky when it isn’t working.

    If only they wouldn’t keep trying to take us and the audience as fools and admit their mistakes, they would be t5aken more seriously.

    I can’t see it happening though. They are too well trained in this by Howard.

  44. That Tony “people skill” Abbott is really a pain in you know where on QandA. He is so smug and self righteous, it makes me want to be euthanized.

  49. So has Turnbull reserved his seat for his Trucking Adventure?
    Will he sit in a truck for 12 hours like his predessor did to understand the hardships of truck drivers?

    If he doesn’t go on his Trucking Listening tour does that mean he won’t understand the hardships of a truck driver, or is he admitting that nelson’s Trucking Adventure was just a cheap media stunt?

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