Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition”

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  2. Swing Lowe

    The Hack podcasts are here for last week, but I think William was on the week before. The Monday program has a good interview with someone living in a predominantly aboriginal town who was VERY excited about the Regional Royalties program. That interview is followed by one with Grylls, who sounds like a nice bloke (so he won’t last long). Grylls talks about how the Royalties program will benefit indigenous communities, which I hadn’t thought of before. He also talks about how his model of a separate Nat party might be the model for the future.

    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hack/

  9. Yes, Hack is going to start a TV show. Steve Kinnane will front it. He is a brilliant mind and interviewer. Radio National stole him from triplej about a year ago. I expect that one of the networks will steal him soon.

    Lots of Lib pollies won’t go on Hack as they get a fairly torrid time. There were a few very brave ones who’d regularly front up, like Barnaby Joyce, Joe Hockey and Amanda Vanstone. Turnbull will never go on again after a pre-election debate last year; he was used as a human pinata.

  10. Glen,

    What exactly does the Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs do? (More to the point – what does the Minister for Administrative Affairs – if such a post exists – do???)

  13. Is Turnbull going to take a leaf out of the Pineapple Party’s book and like Springborg have Shadow Ministers who don’t actually shadow anyone or anything in the real world?

    In Queensland they waste half of QT asking questions to the wrong Minister, it a stupid
    unworkable concept and if he does that the Government will eat Turnbull before he begins.

  14. And Yes Prime Minister, all first term PMs look like Jim Hacker in some respects Howard did and so to has Rudd.

    Rudd, needs to focus on initiatives that are….quick, simple, popular, cheap.
    Quite frankly his ETS scheme looks to me like a courageous decision, especially in light of financial difficulties.

    I only hope Stephen Smith has a tele in his office so he can keep up to date on foreign affairs rather than rely on the foreign office (DFAT) cables.

  18. Nah, Glen. If you saw Rudd on the 7.30 Report tonight, you (well, I) saw someone who was growing into the position. He’s beginning to look formidable. And there are some other people around in the gov’t/ who are formidable. Seems to me they’ve got greater depth and breadth than the Opposition, and this could be a good thing, as we’re in a very, very bad economic situation.

  21. No 265

    The audience was evenly balanced tonight. Some weeks it is overtly Liberal, others very Greens/Labor. I’ve been in the audience a few times – it is so easy to get on.

  27. No 272

    The joust with Abbott, she did pretty well. So did Abbott. She is intelligent (and rather attractive for someone in her 50s) and she’ll improve, but frankly she appears airheaded when she hasn’t done her research.

  30. No 279

    But for someone of her seemingly high intellectual calibre, you would think she’d be more knowledgeable. I don’t know, maybe I wrong.

  31. Maxine has only been Parliament 12 months and his well ahead of a standard politcan of 12 months experience , Tony Abbott’s long experience means he cann’t get any better Liberals ar unwise using him he is far less persuasive & less attractive to middle voters compared to a joe hockey or mesmeralda Julie Bishop

  32. No 281

    Abbott is very persuasive. Hockey is more well-known but when under pressure in a debate on Q&A a few weeks ago, he did not perform as well.

  34. [Bob Ellis has read $weetie’s book.]

    That’s who Costello should have got to co-author his book.
    It would have been a cracking read and sell like hot cakes.

  35. Steve 269! I don’t like Bob Ellis but that is an Interesting book review and in many ways that sums up the Howard years, Peter Costello seemed to have some ideas but when it came time to look at those ideas they turned out to be shallow statements.

    I would have imaged considering Costello having been around the Legal and Politcal world for thirdy years that he would have seen and heard many Intereasting stories and have came up with ideas regarding all the debates here and internationally but this appears lacking.

  37. I’d rather Mez take over shadow treasurer after all she’d get your attention with those eyes, Robb would just bore you to tears…can’t he be the shadow minister for industry or something.

    Let’s face it on Costellos book, how many people have such an interest in politics and Costello to want to throw away 45 bucks on a coffee table book???? No wonder it’s not selling, I wonder if we can compare the sales of Lathams book and Cossies?

    Will any Laborite on here by Unca Howies Memoirs??

    Did Paul J Keating write his???

  38. I’d rather Mez take over shadow treasurer after all she’d get your attention with those eyes, Robb would just bore you to tears…can’t he be the shadow minister for industry or something.

    Let’s face it on Costellos book, how many people have such an interest in politics and Costello to want to throw away 45 bucks on a coffee table book???? No wonder it’s not selling, I wonder if we can compare the sales of Lathams book and Cossies?

    Will any Laborite on here buy Unca Howies Memoirs??

    Did Paul J Keating write his???

  43. I’ve always considered Bob Ellis to be one of the better authors in the country. Always fascinating and not afraid to call it as he sees it. I’ve read a few of his books over the years and consider him far among the best. The Brisbane writers festival is on this weekend and if I strike authors 3/4 as good as him it will be a treat.

  44. GP

    I note in an earlier post on this thread you have reiterated your strange contention that taxation is legal theft. On an earlier thread I pointed out that your argument is a contradiction in terms, which you denied. I then posted the following, which you may have missed because it was the last post on that thread.

    Yes the expression “legal theft IS a contradiction in terms.

    If the definition of theft is”the ILLEGAL taking of someone else’s property, then “legal theft” translates into “the legal, illegal, taking of someone else’s property.

    Sort of like Sir Humprhey Applebee’s reference to “an unstable kind of stability”.in discussing the security of St George’s Island with the Minister.

    For a mostly clear thinking and fair minded person like yourself I am surprised that you would resort to such word games.

  45. No 294

    Darn, this argument has already been had.

    Suffice to say, taxation is legalised theft in the same way that capital punishment is legalised murder.

  46. GP 295

    You’re using another contradiction in terms – in effect you’re saying – “capital punishment is a legal illegal act”.

    I share your apparent disapproval of the death penalty and I’m not trying to be pedantic here, I just don’t think you can make a sound case. But I’m willing to agree to disagree..

  47. No 296

    I’m making the argument from a legal perspective, whereas your using simple semantics which is why you’re hitting a road block.

    Capital punishment fulfils the actus reus and mens rea requirements of murder, yet it is legal in some jurisdictions. Thus, you must logically conclude that it is legalised murder. Same principle for tax.

  49. GP (297)

    Presumably you are using latin expressions – with which I am not familiar.

    So as I said, for now I’ll agree to disagee and move on – while reserving the right to re-visit the topic if or when I have anything further to add.

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