Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition”

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  1. In fact it is all such a mess that the spoils of defeat could be decided Monday rather than today.

    Mr Turnbull was expected to unveil his new front bench today but will now delay it until at least Sunday. He may even wait until Monday, when the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, will be en route to New York, where he will spend the week and miss four parliamentary sitting days.

  2. Hola mi Amigo Mexicano @ 21

    The current US kerfuffle is exactly why Keating’s banking deregulkation was the WRONG thing to.. as was flogging off the Commonwealth Bank.

  3. GP @ 26

    Forget for a moment that the stats have been fiddled by succesive administrations, or that current orthodox free-market economic theories are basically as valid as ID, but the so-called strong economy was in place before Howard – check the stats immediately prior to his election in 96.

  4. The Queensland Liberal Party has gone cap in hand to Turnbull demanding that he scrap Nelson’s legacy.

    [INFLUENTIAL Queensland Liberal Bob Carroll is trying to enlist the help of Malcolm Turnbull to scuttle the merger with the Nationals, claiming party members were tricked into supporting the union.

    And in the first detailed criticism of the merger by a senior Liberal since it was approved by the two parties in July, the former Queensland state Liberal president said a lack of leadership from now deposed federal leader Brendan Nelson had contributed to the outcome.

    Mr Carroll said he had asked the new federal Opposition Leader to pressure the Liberals’ federal council to defer indefinitely a proposal to register the Liberal National Party.

    The Liberals’ federal executive will today consider whether to recommend the registration to the council.

    “The merging of the Liberal and National parties in Queensland was not a legitimate exercise,” Mr Carroll told The Australian yesterday.

    “It was never going to be just a merger. It is a carefully planned takeover of the Liberals by the National Party.”],25197,24368845-601,00.html

  5. 306 So it’ll soon be a “Crushed Pineapple” Party?

    evan, it’s all very well for the Queensland Liberals to be crying after agreeing to such a self inflicted foot shooting but what they have failed to explain from day one is the role they expect to play as second fiddle to a Queensland National Party who in turn are under the financial influence of one Mining magnate.

    Why they think that this pyramid structure would win them the next Queensland election is so far beyond reality as to make the whole process laughable.

    A foot shooting, followed by cork popping, followed by crying and gnashing of teeth is not a formula for success as far as I can tell.

    I’m sure that the next part of this never ending saga will be a full on battle in the courts. Especially if the Federal Liberals jump the wrong way today.

  6. So will Turnbull’s new front bench announcement coincide with Rudd’s meeting, greeting and addressing the financial monarchy in NY? Good contrast. He should get in now while there is a little more clear air.

  7. TP, I think it will take a couple of days to convince the Googler with the economics degree not to take Shadow Treasurer off Julie. Her experience in that area is beyond doubt because she is a Liberal lawyer. That title entitles one to any Liberal Shadow Ministry.

  8. No 309

    What is wrong with being a lawyer? After all, the purpose of parliaments is to pass and debate legislation, a process which is benefited by an affinity for the law.

  9. Turnbull offers political truce on economy.

    “We are offering the Government to sit down with them right now, today, or on the weekend, or Monday, and look at the measures that can be undertaken immediately to provide greater security, greater stability for Australian families and businesses in these challenging times,” he said.

    Talcum still thinks he is in Government. The obvious response is pass the budget. 🙂

  10. Turnbull’s almost suggesting we institute a government of national unity. Next thing he’ll be putting himself up as Treasurer to replace Swan (in the country’s interests, of course).

  11. No 315

    Raising taxes at a time when the economy is in a downturn is lunacy. Further, everyone knows my opinion on the stupid LCT.

  12. [Raising taxes at a time when the economy is in a downturn is lunacy]

    GP, when combined with the $31b income tax cuts, are taxes being raised as a proportion of GDP?

  13. 316 “Raising taxes at a time when the economy is in a downturn is lunacy.”

    But nowhere near as insane as cutting services which is always the Liberal way.

  14. Turnbull doesn’t realise it but he is offering up his best chance of government at the next election. Mind you I still don’t believe the Libs will win but if the Libs are confident that they are the better managers of the economy, going into a bipartisan approach takes away their economic political stick. No longer will they be able to hit the government over the head re the economy. Also, if our economy goes belly up and they’ve taken this bipartisan step they along with Labor will be held responsible. Rudd would be a fool not to take this on IMHO.

  15. The arrogance of Turnbull astounds even this hard-nosed old blogger.

    [We’re prepared to work constructively on bi-partisan measure and we’ll sit down with them immediately”]

    I suppose he thinks he can correct a few of the mistakes, Labor are making before they become too damaging: dotting the odd “i” and crossing the odd “t” I suppose. This is all contingent upon Rudd giving up “petty politics” about turnbull’s life story, of course.


  16. Just watching Sky news midday news show and Rudd’s response to Turnbull asking for bipartisanship on the economic crisis was very good and I’m glad Rudd didn’t miss the obvious retort – “try starting with the budget in the Senate if you want bipartisanship” 😉

  17. 327 – Mal walked straight into that one but I still think his approach is not a bad one for both parties actually (as discussed earlier).

  18. Curtin realised how hamstrung he would have been by agreeing to a national unity ticket with the UAP in the 1940s. They needed to be told they were not the natural government of Australia in no uncertain terms. With Menzies and the rest of them urging we remain in North africa, thus sacrificing Australia to the Japanese, Curtin’s point was proved.

    Rudd would be a fool for accepting this ever-so-generous offer. It’s pure chutzpa and may well be de rigeur in Bent St. or the board room of Goldman-Sachs spruiking some dodgy derivative package, but not in the real world.

  19. BB oddly reminiscent of the likelihood of the WA Nats doing a deal to rule with Labor. All Turnbull needs to do is pass the budget for now, anything else is just grandstanding.

  20. I must say BB you make a good point and I’m not wedded to the idea but I think it would pull the “economic teeth” of the opposition. If it was bipartisanship in one area only not a national unity government as such. Probably unachievable and unrealistic but it would be good if it could be done.

  21. ruawake 311

    Spot on.

    Rudd should make hay with a ‘withering’ attack on Turnbull for his confected concern for the economoy where he is determined to block every budget measure in the Senate trying to ripp a dangerous hole in Australia’s budget surpluses.

    If Mr Turnbull were truly serious about his concern for Austrlia’s economy he would in the Senate allow the elected government to get on with the business of governing instead of at every turn endeavouring to delay, obfuscate, derail and block the very measures designed to help sure up the economy. Though we see here Mr Turnbull talk about being concerned about the economy, he is fresh from only yesterday, with incautious language, undermining the Govenor of the Reserve Bank. If the leader of the Opposition was truly concerned with health of the Australian economy he would ensure that he and his party stood aside whilst the government implements its budget strategies instead of playing the spoiler for cheap political points. I remind Mr Turnbull that in these global economic times it is not appropriate to play these cheap political point scoring games. I call on Mr Turnbull to instruct the his members in the Senate to pass those very bills that help ensure the health of our economy. blah balh..

  22. Rudd is now dealing with a player of equilavent nous

    young talcum is aimimng to set himself as “Rudd Lite”

    the next week or so will set the tone of the fibs approach-it truly is game on now

  23. Barnaby turns down front bench job.

    “At times there will be issues that there will, possibly, be a difference on, so on this occasion I humbly decline,” Senator Joyce said.

    Now why would Talcum be offering Barnaby a front bench gig?

    He is getting really, really bizarre. 😉

  24. Ru
    Talcum is circling the wagons

    If you remember the rudder made sure early on who was with him and who was agin him

    as a wise man said “better to know thine enemy than thine friend”

    esp in regards to politics!!!!

  25. [Suring up the economy does not involve raising taxes and it is simply ignorant to argue as such.]

    Raising $1b in taxes while lowering $31b in other taxes does not amount to ‘raising taxes’ and it is simply ignorant to argue as such

  26. Gary B., no, no, no…

    Turnbull’s whole strategy is to make Labor look like they don’t have the confidence to look after the economy as well as a professional merchant banker and his cronies – all naturally gifted in matters economic – could.

    Not that they ever would, but if Labor fell for this it would only entrench the idea in the Coalition’s mind that they had a hope of winning the next election. IT might work on the public’s mind too, in that they would think, “Maybe Labor really doesn’t have the cojones to manage the economy on their own?”

    Forget the voters, I might start thinking the same too, as might many others on the Left, even here.

    It is a total, cheeky and completely avoidable trap for Rudd.

    A good omen for Labor, though. I have always said Turnbull’s arrogance and over-confidence would be his downfall, and this is a good sign he “full of himself” at an early stage. An uppity Opposition Leader needs to be put firmly in his place. Cheeky sod.

  27. Rudd should come down very strong and hard on these type of things – highlight hypocrasies, incompetencies and make it be seen Labor is in total control – as well as fixing up the Liberal party’s ‘mess’. Wonder Rudd didn’t mention that if Turnbull was really interested in doing something on a bi-partisan basis then the Republic is where it is needed. Rudd needs to play it tough and arrogant – he is the government.

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