Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition”

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  1. William,
    It seems as though I can vote on the sidebar poll every time I refresh the page.

    Wouldn’t not that allow people to corrupt the poll?

    Personally, I don’t foresee any change outside the MoE.

  2. Yes, the poll is flawed because you can submit more than one answer.

    Suffice to say, I’ve selected “51% or less” twice, for good measure. 😀

  3. In senate question time, Senator Evans just said — in all seriousness — “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”. You’d hope he’d be following news from the USA and avoiding the kind of dunderheaded phrases the entire US press has criticised in the last 72 hours! 🙂

  4. GP – ever thought that might be part of what is being measured?

    The simple answer to a poll where you *can* vote multiple times is showing self restraint and *not* voting multiple times.

  5. No 8

    The fallout from the crisis is shocking.

    Bank of Scotland (owner of Aussie BankWest) nearly collapsed, and markets on Wall Street have had $85 billion wiped off their value.

  6. Electing a merchant banker to act the alternative Lookerer Afterer of our economy is like appointing Brer Fox to be security guard at the chicken coop, complete with a kit consisting of a set of steak knives, paper serviettes and a bottle of Rosella tomato sauce.


  7. On Lateline last night global economist David Hale forcast more than 300 more banks in the US to go belly up.

    My rollover lost more than 12% in the 12 Months so 30th June, 2008 and I bet it has lost that much again since then. By the end of this financial year, it may be worth nothing.

    I expect ALL super funds to be hit hard. The ordinary person in the street pays for the follies of the High Street elite again.

  8. [On Lateline last night global economist David Hale forcast more than 300 more banks in the US to go belly up.]

    The US does have a lot of very small banks though doesn’t it? Not sure what that kind of a stat really means…

  9. It has a lot of rather BIG ones too and if the 3rd biggest Merchant Bank in the US can go bust, then surely other big ones can too.

    They are the ones who got big by taking the biggest risks!

  10. The US have several layers of banking, right down to regional banks, I would expect most of those banks to fold or merge, the situation in America is extremely bad, but good news if there is any is most people could see it coming, and thankfully our Governments have put in palce sound regulation.

  11. Turnbull may be off the hook.

    [The Supreme Court has cleared the way for a multi-million dollar settlement of a legal action involving failed insurer HIH, giving new Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull the chance to avoid a potentially legal embarrassment.

    NSW Supreme Court Justice Patricia Bergin today granted an application by HIH to put preparations for the case on hold for 90 days while the parties negotiate a settlement over the $500 million claim.

    A settlement would mean Mr Turnbull, the former chairman of investment bank Goldman Sachs Australia, would avoid the unwanted attention of a protracted court case involving himself and eight other defendants and 118 cross-claims.]

  12. No 21

    I agree. The idea behind “sub-prime” lending is ludicrous – a bank lending money to people who have no hope of repaying is totally is always a recipe for disaster.

  13. No 22

    Yes, the fundamentals are strong. And you’re acceptance of that statement would also suggest the ridiculous disparagement of the Howard/Costello economic record is baseless.

  14. At the end of all this crisis one thing is certain China may well be the most important economy in the world, has anyone ever taken over without invading anyone.

  15. GP post 25! You are right, that is why I compare this crisis with the Melbourne 1890s bust for the underlining cause of that was very similar to the U.S Sub-Primal crisis lets just hope the U.S can recover more quickly than Melbourne did.

  16. Although,

    {In granting the application, Justice Bergin warned that if negotiations broke down the listed trial date of February 10, 2009 would be postponed.}

    It may be just a legal ploy to hold off proceedings till after the next election.

    It would be interesting if Turnbull won and became the first PM to be jailed.

  17. Jeff Waugh 8 said:

    “In senate question time, Senator Evans just said — in all seriousness — “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”.
    You’d hope he’d be following news from the USA and avoiding the kind of dunderheaded phrases the entire US press
    has criticised in the last 72 hours!”

    What do you expect him to say, Jeff? If he said something like “We’ll all be rooned”, would that make you feel better?

    Besides, isn’t it true that our (i.e. Oz) economic funumentals are indeed strong?

  18. No 28

    Rudd is safely the richest person in parliament.

    Turnbull’s wealth has been estimated at $120 million, yet Therese Rein has a business worth $200 million.

  19. Turnbull and Hockey are busy in QT now trying to bad-mouth the economy via questions on the solvency of Medibank Private. Tanner’s reply – when he eventually got it out after repeated points of order on “relevance” – was that M.P. was in very good financial condition.

    The interruptions came about because the Opposition wanted bad news an were wetting their pants so much they couldn’t wait for it.

    From thinking Turnbull was a reasonable choice for Opposition Leader (given the competition), I’ve changed my mind. This guy is busting to talk the economy down and has been doing so for several months now while (paradoxically) accusing the government of doing just that. Costello was in on this ploy too with his irresponsible comments in America on the Australian economy.

    What possible connection can the Rudd government have with Medibank Private’s investments, given that they would mostly have been locked in a long time ago before this banking meltdown in the US happened? It was a muck-raking question designed to spread doom and gloom and thereby, somehow, by association I suppose, to blacken the government’s (and the economy’s) credibility by scaring the bejesus out of the punters of Voterland.

    Smart-arse bankers like Turnbull are how the World got into this mess. Bankers are not the answer. They are the problem. Expect the mums and dads interviewed by Newspoll over the weekend to note this and mark him down for it.

  20. I don’t recall disparaging the Howard/Costello record of economic management. The Libs inherited a thriving economy from Labor and had eleven years of exports-driven boom to preside over – not a very challenging task. Spending got out of hand in the last few years as the Libs tried to buy their way out of trouble, but on the whole the economy remained sound, as it is now. Labor will have the much more challenging task of managing the economy in a global financial crisis, and while faced with an obstructionist Senate.

  21. I reckon the Truffle will get a bounce, ALP to come in 53 2PP, but the reason you keep truffles in tightly sealed containers is that after the initial rush of heady aroma they lose their flavour very quickly once exposed to the outside.

  22. 39, given that source is nearly a year old, do we know what she’s done with the moola? Blind trust? Regardless of who’s pot is bigger, Truffle will always have more trouble with the rich tag than the Rudd/Rein team, the silver tail perception has already very strongly adhered to him and won’t be brought unstuck by tales of rented apartments in his childhood.

  23. GP, not many business have a PE of 0.5 so I don’t think that’s an accurate estimate. A business with $200 mill revenue (not profit!!) is not worth $100 mill. Any first year business student can tell you that.
    All the newspaper articles this morning referenced “Liberal sources” for the $200 mill estimate.
    Can we get one independent, credible, realistic source that confirms that figure?

  24. and no 39. If she is currently worth $60 million; the sale of her business would gain her an additional $100 million easily eclipsing Turnbull.

    Either way, it is a bit rich for the ALP to accuse Turnbull of being a toff when Rudd & Rein are happily swimming in money.

  25. I suspect the following will happen with Newspoll:

    Turnbull’s approval will have a significant undecided group ~ 40%, and a low disapproval ~15%, with an approval ~ 45%.

    Rudd’s ratings will be largely unchanged.

    Preferred PM ratings will change from ~ 60/15 to ~ 50/30

    The Coalition’s vote will increase to 40/41 the ALP’s vote will stay at 44/45 translating to a TPP of ~ 54/46.

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