New South Wales council elections thread

By popular demand, here’s a thread for discussion of the New South Wales council elections. Can’t tell you much about them myself, except that they’re on tomorrow. Antony Green has an index of candidates and the ABC will be publishing results, no doubt in more digestible form than the New South Wales Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

366 comments on “New South Wales council elections thread”

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  1. No, as Evan’s pointed out the Libs are probably only going to pick up one – Ryde.

    I don’t think the Nats are a shoe in though in Port Macquarie though, for the same reasons I said before.

  5. FWIW Nathan Rees will never go down as the shortest serving NSW premier. Apparently this record will always belong to Sir George Fuller who held office (wait for it) for all of 7 hours on 20th December 1921.

  6. Thre will be by-elections in Ryde, Lakemba and Cabramatta.

    Everyone expects that Ryde will be lost. Lakemba and Cabramatta are not without precedence. Remember Bass Hill and Wran.

  7. Oakeshott’s press secretary is running as an Independent as is a former councillor who was one of the few to emerge from the recent sacking with any dignity as she opposed to whole fiasco that led to it. She has the support of resident and community groups. But we don’t know if the Libs are running, which could lead to a fracturing of the conservative vote.

    Mind you, there’s still a decent possibility the Nats will assert themselves again in Port Macquarie but there a few unknown quantities that we shouldn’t write off.

  9. [FWIW Nathan Rees will never go down as the shortest serving NSW premier. Apparently this record will always belong to Sir George Fuller who held office (wait for it) for all of 7 hours on 20th December 1921.]

    Ah well, he tried.

  12. But we don’t know if the Libs are running,

    If we could figure out what would be the worst possible outcome for the NSW Coalition we’d know.

  14. hey all,

    I’ve spent the night following the results but haven’t been able to contribute much. I’ll be compiling results for the Greens so will have some more insights. However I should point out that in Ryde the Greens ran in one ward, that’s why we fell in terms of overall vote.

    In my own Council of Campbelltown the council is very stable. The five independents look like being re-elected, along with the sole Green (with a much greater vote). Labor has lost its seventh seat to the Liberals. That’s it.

  17. At present the following anti-Labor swings have been recorded in “traditional” ALP councils:
    Ashfield -1.8%
    Auburn -2.3%
    Bankstown +1.6%
    Blacktown -3.6%
    Canada Bay +4.5%
    Fairfield -3.3%
    Leichardt +0.6%
    Penrith -3.2%
    Rockdale +0.5%

    Marrickville -10.4%
    Randwick -12.9%

    Outside of the Green heartland, the ALP has done remarkably well. And this surprises me. The news so far is about a Labor hammering. But on this cursory and preliminary glance, the ALP has done well.

    I am not sure why no-one other than the ALP contested in Botany.

  18. We talked about the Botany thing before, something about votes flowing through that guarantee something blah blah. Something stupid.

    I don’t agree with your assertion that “Outside of the Green heartland, the ALP has done remarkably well.” First of all, the fact that there is now a “Green heartland” and one that extends beyond inner-city Sydney is a new phenomenon. Secondly, swings against them in a majority of councils isn’t going to be considered doing well by many commentators or anyone in the ALP.

    It might seem ok if you went in thinking The Greens and Libs were going to carve up NSW between them, but that was a tad optimistic. But I will say that the failure of the Libs to capitalise in many areas or in fact cede ground in some is a stark indictment on them when they should have, and indeed were, in prime position.

  20. I’m delighted with the Greens performance. I would’ve liked to see a second Green on Campbelltown but we’re now within striking distance for 2012.

  22. Oz, on the figures I put there, there are swings TO the ALP in 4 out of the 9 councils. The largest anti-ALP swing is 3.6%. I think that swings of this magnitude against the ALP considering the week they had and considering the expectation that they were going to get smashed does evidence a good showing by the ALP.

    The commentators may say the ALP has done badly, but this does not mean that it is true. The ALP will have done VERY VERY badly in Randwick, Sydney and Marrickville. Yes, but outside of the inner-city, in the areas above the ALP seems to have done well in terms of votes and minimising the swings.

    In Leichardt, where the Greens have done well, this has not been at the expense of the ALP. The ALP has increased its vote.

  23. I am not sure why no-one other than the ALP contested in Botany.

    Botany is the nearest thing we have to Newark NJ. It’s very bad for your health to run for Council in Botany unless you are an endorsed ALP candidate.

    Plus the fix is – two cllrs per ward makes it impossible to get anyone other than a major party up

  24. albertross – but why did no-one outside of the ALP even bother to nominate for any ward or for the mayoralty.

    I don’t think the ALP gets enough votes there to guarantee 2 councillors in all wards.

  29. Laz

    Preferences are at the option of the voter. There is no automatic distribution of preferences unless the voter actually indicates a preference either above the line or below the line

    This is unlike the systems for the Senate and NSW LC.

  30. Hmm, I still think that if you’re going by number of Labor councillors yesterday and number of Labor councillors today(Not sure how else you would go), it’s a resounding kick in the face for Labor and the overall swing IS against them, so there’s really no other way to spin it.

  33. If people are thinking Labor has done well in Parramatta, well I can see them winning 6 plus 1 former-ALP independent. That is down from 9+1 at the last election (out of 15).

    There is even the possibility (which is hard to gauge on the primary votes) of the Liberals winning an extra spot to 6, and having a working majority with two independents.

    Even Nathan (Who?) Rees being a local hasn’t saved them.

    Seems to be a similar story in Holroyd too (and in Baulkham Hills).

    The ALP have lost many council seats today.

  34. [Hmm, I still think that if you’re going by number of Labor councillors yesterday and number of Labor councillors today(Not sure how else you would go), it’s a resounding kick in the face for Labor and the overall swing IS against them, so there’s really no other way to spin it.]

    I think the true barometer would be whether the Libs would be happy with the results. My guess is not.

  35. Hey Albertross,

    I’m currently calculating the number of seats we’ve definitely won and how many we may have won, but it’s taking a hell of a long time. We’re doing very well though.

  36. So I’m still refining my estimates, but it looks like we’ve won a solid 65-70 seats and could crack 100 if every close contest goes our way, but more likely it’ll be somewhere in between. In comparison we won 58 in 2004 and about 25 in 1999. The Victorian Greens have 14 councillors and Tasmania has 13, I think, so it’s pretty stunning to be considering close to 100.

  37. A new day dawns, and yes there are less Labor councillors than there were yesterday. before people start to catastrophise over the Labor losses, we need to take into consideration that the 2004 local election was a bonanza for Labor all over the state. Before any of the tragic events transpired there was little hope that the same results would be achieved.
    To establish a fact. Magpiepete, Labor won the 2004 election with 8+ 1 (Labor independent) loosing one along the way. Labor will still be the largest single party on council.

  38. Yes, Labor has copped a whacking but the beneficiaries, it seems, has not been the Libs. The Greens have improved their position greatly.
    I’d like to know how many additional seats the Libs have won overall.

  39. Also of interest, mainly to locals I’ll admit given the insistence on being ‘Independent’ on the ballot paper, are results in the Lower North Shore of Syd.

    First Green Cllrs elected to North Sydney (polling nearly a quota in Wollstonecraft Ward), Lane Cove (2 lead candidates from two elected) and Willoughby. From 0 to 4 Cllrs is not a bad achievement at all!

    LC Central Ward: Lib 58%, Green 42%. I think this is a record for the area.
    LC West: Green on just under a quota, outpolled the incumbent (and reasonably popular) mayor by 4 votes. Around 24%. Beaten by about 2% by an endorsed Lib.
    Willoughby West: 1st in a field of 5 with 32ish%.

    North Syd in general has become more progressive, with 6 supporters of the current mayor & LGA Pres Genia McCaffery elected to 5 conservatives and 1 Green – the Green tipped the balance from 6-6 at the last election.

    LC still conservative, with 4 Liberals (first time in a while that they’ve endorsed candidates!), 1 cons IND (incumbent mayor), 2 Greens and 2 broadly progressive INDs. A bizarre result in West Ward where Fran Tierney (IND but aligned with ALP) saw her vote collapse to less than 10% off a strong showing last time. Running as endorsed Libs has helped them consolidate, at the expense of cons INDs.

    Willoughby – who can know what the heck is going on there. But off state 2007 figures the Greens have roughly doubled their vote – must remember presence of a local IND in that seat last time around, might have dampened the Green vote (probably not by much).

    If these results/swings replicated – Green to be 2PP challenger in Lane Cove at state 2011, swing to Green on 2PP in North Shore where we’re already in the count. Willoughby up for bizarre flows if IND and/or Unity run again.

    Has anyone found booth-by-booth results on the NSWEC site? Would be useful right now.

  42. It’s a make or break position for them now. If they can do some good things and get the community on side, they can cement their position as a really dominant force in local politics.

    But if the electorate views this period as a waste then we might see a swing back to the majors. However I think that’s more unlikely, trends in every election for the last few cycles have been votes away from majors and to minor parties and independents.

  43. Yes but the Libs run most of their people for local government as independents, so they can’t claim victory as a party when they get elected. Here in Queanbeyan, for example, Tim Overall was elected Mayor over Labor’s Tom Mavec. Overall is well-known to be a Lib, but since he ran as an independent the Libs can’t claim him.

  44. The Greens shouldn’t get too excited. Most people who voted for them did so because they were “other” – not the ALP, not the Libs. If they’d run as the Free Teddy Bears Party they’d have done just as well. On top of that, many voters dislike party politics in local elections and tend to vote for “other” anyway. This trend won’t necessarily follow through into state or federal elections. Certainly, unless Labor sorts itself out, the Greens will have their best shot at seats like Balmain and Marrickville in 2011. But Labor has shown before that it can effectively defend inner-city seats by mounting hard-hitting campaigns that remind voters of the Greens’ sillier and more extreme policies – on drugs for example. Labor’s campaign in the Albert Park by-election last year was a classic example.

  45. “Labor avoids complete annihilation by spreading misinformation and attack ads” – Nice.

    I wouldn’t claim that most of the votes are just from people looking for an alternative, even in seats with other minor parties and independents there were strong swings to them.

    Clearly you need to be more than just not Labor or Liberal to get figures like 15, 20 even up to 50%.

  47. If they’d run as the Free Teddy Bears Party they’d have done just as well.

    Or to put it another way…

    Whenever I feel afraid
    I hold my head erect
    And whistle a happy tune
    So no one will suspect
    I’m afraid.

    The result of this deception
    Is very strange to tell
    For when I fool the people
    I fear I fool myself as well!

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