The bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, produced from a combined sample of 1000 from its last two national polls, is a remarkably weak set of numbers for Labor, showing them on 30% of the primary vote – down two points on the last poll and seven on the 2023 election. The Coalition is up three on both to 38%, with the Greens 12%, up by one on the last poll and at least two on the election result. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but I would very roughly estimate 51-49 to the Coalition based on these primary votes. Chris Minns leads Mark Speakman 38-13, unchanged from last time.
I would normally be skeptical about such a result for a first-term government with no obvious reason to be listing so badly, and suspect that the Sydney Morning Herald might feel the same way, as its report leads with a finding that 56% support the government’s proposal to prevent “no grounds” evictions with 23% opposed. However, the only other state poll this year from a pollster other than Resolve Strategic, a RedBridge Group poll conducted from two waves in February and May, likewise suggested a close result on two-party preferred, though with substantially higher primary votes for the major parties (especially Labor).
Clarity could perhaps be provided by two looming by-elections should Labor choose to contest them, on which I have no information. These are for the seats of Hornsby and Epping, which are respectively being vacated by the erstwhile leader and deputy leader of the Liberal Party, Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean. The date for both has been set at October 19, the same date as the Australian Capital Territory’s election and a week before Queensland’s. A Liberal preselection for Epping on Saturday was won by Monica Tudehope, daughter of Damien Tudehope, who held the seat from 2015 to 2019 and is now the leader of the Liberals in the Legislative Council. Monica Tudehope is a former policy director to Perrottet and unsuccessful contestant for last year’s preselection to fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Marise Payne, which was won by Dave Sharma. Tricia Rivera of The Australian reports Tudehope was an easy first-round winner in the party ballot with 89 out of 115 votes.
The Liberal candidate in Hornsby will be Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer James Wallace, who won a preselection vote a fortnight ago after receiving forceful endorsement from Matt Kean and equally vehement opposition from many at the conservative end of the party. The latter included Tony Abbott, who endorsed Hornsby deputy mayor Michael Hutchence and accused Kean, newly appointed chair of the Climate Change Authority, of having “left the parliament to take a job with the Labor party”. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports Wallace won in the first round of a preselection ballot with 123 votes to 36 for Hutchence and 28 for a third candidate.
The other big electoral news out of the state is the Liberal Party’s failures to meet last week’s noon Wednesday nominations deadline for the September 14 council elections, estimated to have involved around 140 candidates across 18 council areas. Ben Raue at the Tally Room analyses the implications, finding the blunder has excluded the Liberals from at least 50 winnable seats across 16 councils. A request from the Liberal Party for an extension has been denied by acting Electoral Commissioner Matthew Phillips, who “was not satisfied that it is possible to lawfully extend the nomination period in line with the request and, even if it were, it would not be appropriate to do so given the very significant ramifications it would have for the conduct of the elections”. The party now says it will pursue action in the Supreme Court. The blunder resulted in the party’s state executive sacking Richard Shields as its state director on Friday, with Sky News reporting the party “had to scramble to get an interim acting state director in place so that the Epping by-election preselection could take place on Saturday”.