NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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LATEST
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
NSPWA= non steroidal pain witholding application
No 249
What are you – a child? For the record, Corpse is a bit flabby himself.
Maybe that will help Barnetts blood presure rising. I’m waiting for him to turn into a tomato on national television as his head gets redder and eventually explodes
Conservatives= no sense of humour. Isn’t it the constitution and handbook for every tory?
Come to think of it I think the former Victorians opposition leaders head exploded at some point
No 254
It’s humorous for a child, not for an adult.
Anyway, I just watched Corpse on 7.30 and the interview smacked of absolute desperation!
It’s not over till the fat lady sings gp or this case the fat opposition leader. Will he step down do you think and give the beagle another go? Has the beagle thought of working for customs, or are his olofactory skills just a show?
Is it just me, or does Brendan Grylls bear a striking resemblance to Dave Hughes, who ironically spent his early comedy years here in WA and who also has a pronounced lisp 🙂
only a little bit Frankl
Speaking of Dave Hughes, I can well imagine Brendan Grylls trying to extract the best deal 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy2bqUg_O_w&feature=related
Seat that disappoints me is Morley , D’orazrio prefs at highest for Labor would be 45% based on consevative greens preferencing , but could be just under 40%
Voters who voted fro him could hav voted Liberal or Greens or CDP or Independent with there Primary & didn’t , deliberatley voted for him and then preferenced accordingly …if just another 9% more had preferenced Labor via D’orazio then would hav made it neck & neck
And Reece Whitby is paying out big time on D’Orazio for preferencing the Libs.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/audio/200809/20080908-whitby.mp3
I heard from a scrutineer that over 40% of Nat preferences defied their card and went to Labor in the north of the state. A lot of country Labor people would be rapt to see the regions get the 25%.
Grylls might lose a few of the lunatic right from the Nats if he goes with Labor but would more than compensate by picking up other middle of the road voters. If he goes with Labor he deals the Nats back into politics. If he goes with the Libs on anything less than a champagne deal I think they are finished. He might be quite happy to get rid of his party’s lunatic fringe for the sake of longevity.
The Nats will want to allow uranium mining and GM crops. Will Carps compromise on those as well as royalties for regions?
I cannot see the Nat support the Labor in WA
In SA, the Nat supported the Lab because the SA Lib was on the nose and close to being kick out. They were clinging to parliament
Even if Carpenter stays at premier, his power is so diluted within his own party and with the Nats who are philosophically different that it is hard to see Carpenter staying in power for more then 2 years
And at the next election Labor would have failed the city so much that they get kicked out
The Nat must also be angry at Labor for 1v1v, WA Labor tried to wipe them out and take their seats away
Tha Nat will only support legislation they likes
I think it is more likely for Labor to go into coalition with the 2 Lib independants than the Nats
Ed the seph
National in 2 seats relied on staying in front of Labor (by 2-3%) and using their preference to get up
they cannot afford to lose any more of their constituency, even if they are right wing nuts
Reece Whitby seems to be completely oblivious to the fact the Labor party have parachuted him into a seat he didn’t deserve, and he has been punished for it. Not even a member for 12 months and he is suprised he didn’t get the same level of vote from the labor party faithful? Sour grapes.
Frank, there’s no resemblance at all.
Brendan Grylls is funny.
Strugglestreet, what a totally simplistic view of the situation in Morley. D’Orazio took 16% of the primary vote through sheer spite, knowing he had no way of winning the seat. Do you think those 3,000 votes were going to go Liberal? And on another note, when have D’Orazio supporters ever been the Labor faithful? The man is one of the most self-interested pathetic excuses for a person. Great way to repay the Labor faithful, by stabbing them in the back and taking a safe Labor seat and turning it Liberal.
Its also a great way to repay the labor voters by parachuting in a journalist to a seat he doesn’t live anywhere near, after less than 12 months in the party. People didn’t preference Liberal just because they were told to.
vitap,
So – the voters did not have anything to do with it? They were purely sheep, lead around by a creul and vicious ex-ALP man, bent on destroying the good and faithful ones he is now “…stabbing in the back”?
OK – I agree. We should play the man, not the ball.
No 264
Corpse’s opposition to uranium mining is ridiculous anyway. He is certainly incongruent with Labor policy in other states.
Do you think it is a genuine opposition, or merely a pre-poll attempt to scare Greens voters into allocating their preferences to the ALP above the Liberals?
obviously a pre-poll attempt to get Green’s preferences after their internal polling showed a big greens vote.
Haven’t you lot worked out who won yet? What the hell’s going on?
… and just the sort of cynical exercise that is likely to turn voters off. Changing policies during an election campaign is never a good look.
Thufferin’ Thuckotash!
What happened to all the commenters? Has no one got anything to say? Rumour? Speculation? Half-overhead scrutineer reports? Approximate notional 2CP counts based on WAEC figures?
All I can say is: the WAEC is obscenely lethargic in their vote counting.
Western Australian country towns are falling to bits despite them being the ones producing almost all of WA’s Billions of dollars in revenue.
Unlike in Queensland where power is less centralised to the capital city, WA has almost all it’s electorates based on Perth meaning the big parties couldn’t give 2 hoots on what happens outside Perth.
I think the Nats are on to something here.
Bear in mind that the upper house still has a pronounced gerrymander
I’m very frustrated with the WAEC. Why not update the notional 2CP counts beyond election night? Why update the website so sporadically?
Dovif:
I guess you’re talking about Moore… which other seat? Terry Redman did that last time, but now has an big fat margin (16.4% vs Lib).
If the National voter base moves to the left, they’re gonna lose a few voters to, who, One Nation? The CEC? In the meantime, they’ll pick up voters from Labor, making their chances look a lot better in seats like Moore and also North West / Pilbara / Kimberley. The Nats did very well in the three northern seats (23.5%, 22.9% and 21.2% from nothing last time, actually overtaking the Libs in Pilbara). Those are Labor seats where they can boot the Libs to third and win from there. If the Nats stay true and get this right for their people, they will very likely win at least one northern seat next time.
Bludgers, my midday mail from the Wild West is:
Labor 27
Libs 23
Nats 4
pro-Lib independents 2
ex-Labor independents 2
Doubtful 1
The last seat really undecided is Riverton, which will finish up in court whoever wins.
Thus:
Labor+Inds=29
Lib+Nat+Inds=29
Deadlock
possible outcomes are:
Lib+Nat+all four Inds = 31
Lab+Nat=31.
I’m told that Bowler and Adams will not support a Lib-Nat government. Thus the ONLY realistic short-term outcome is a minority Labor government supported by the Nats.
Exciting Adam,
Is this form internal party sources or from your reading of the state of play?
“The last seat really undecided is Riverton, which will finish up in court whoever wins.
Thus:
Labor+Inds=29
Lib+Nat+Inds=29
Deadlock”
Won’t the person declared elected by the WAEC sit in Parliament until and unless the Court of Disputed Returns decides otherwise?
Who have you got winning Wanneroo? I thought that was tighter than Riverton.
My sources cannot be revealed, but are well-informed 🙂
Martin, yes that is so. But a government depending on the vote of the Hon Member for Riverton would be in constant danger, and its actions might be legally challenged if that member’s election were to be annulled.
I think these figures assume that the Libs will win Wanneroo.
at 5pm last night, Guise was 77 votes behind & McRae 71…
They are the same
Wanneroo Lib 79 ahead trend to Liberal
Riverton Lib 71 ahead trend to Liberal
From the WA
Albany had came down from about 300 ALP ahead to 120 ALP ahead atm
Bowler had said he will support the party who gives his electorate most money
Adams had said she is sick of the ALP forgetting her seat, and unless they stop taking her for granted and spend more money in her electorate, she will go with the libs
My sources say that despite Bowler and Adams sounding off in public, they will support Labor if it comes to a choice.
So Labor takes Forrestfield and Albany?
Interesting days ahead … assuming Carpenter lives on to remain Premier. Is it all possible that Labor retains Govt but installs someone else instead?? (and if so, can it be McGinty ??)
Adams has not definitely won.
The latest AEC figures are from 9pm last night and there is still a lot to be counted – absentee and postals which favour Labor. She needs to stop swanning around at Parlt house and shooting her mouth off in the media like a less interesting Pauline Hanson, and get to the tally room to watch her votes.
Talk about taking the electorate for granted….
the WAEC are really taking their time aren’t they. i reckon i could have counted one seat myself by now.
man o man
this election has more twists and turns than a twisty turny thing in a twistatorium on a Tuesday.
As a distant observer, I can’t see anything guaranteeing stable government in WA unless the Nats support the ALP, particularly in light of the need to find a Speaker. I think Labor will bend over backwards to grovel to the Nats, and I wonder if it will even involve surrendering on uranium mining and GM crops. That would piss the Greens off, but the Greens effectively have no power in this situation, despite getting many more votes than the Nats.
Even if he gets the nats on board, it’s hard to see Barnett cobbling together a stable government.
And I repeat what I wrote yesterday – Grylls seems to have adopted Karlene Maywald as her mentor, and this can only be promising for Labor.
“And I repeat what I wrote yesterday – Grylls seems to have adopted Karlene Maywald as her mentor, and this can only be promising for Labor.”
I know he has a lisp, but he’s all man I believe….
the seats are far from decided… i built a simple prediction spreadsheet based on the trend and it is still entirely possible that Libs will win Albany and Forrestfield (arguably likely in at least one case) Riverton too close to call. Libs likely to win Morley and Wanneroo
Just a quick one… why do people think a Lib minority govt would be unstable.
If Libs get 24, plus 2 Lib Inds, plus 4 nats, this should be relatively stable.
The 2 Lib Inds are basically Libs – they have said as much… they wont cause any problems…. and in terms of the Nats, once they decide to form a govt with barnett, there is no reason why they would be unstable… they will vote as a block
Well obviously if the Libs win Albany and/or Forrestfield then Libs+Nats+Inds=a majority. But they ain’t there yet.