NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
(to want to)
No 198
That’s just wishful thinking from a dyed-in-the-wool Labor zealot.
Carpenter is not an honest dealer. He presided over the Brian Burke cabinet.
Ahem, Newspoll says nothin’ much has changed at the Fed. level.
No 200
Cowards typically speak anonymously. Whilst I agree that it is disgraceful for Truss to be talking aloud like that given the opposition’s current performance (i.e. the last thing we need is more disunity), this “senior” Liberal should have the courage to speak undisguised and furnish the so called “problems” “mostly” caused by the Nationals.
I agree Generic Person!
204
hear hear
204 – absolutely GP.
204 GP that is what I have always believed.
Generic Person @ 202. Lordy, you’re getting testy. For your information, I’m not a dyed in the wool Labor zealot. I’m not a zealot of any sort, and you’re very silly making such claims. Carpenter expelled those proven to have connections to Burke. Want to explore the connections between the LNP and Noel Crichton-Browne?
In particular the Treasurer Elect and Member For Vasse.
It’s official: the Republican Party has withdrawn from the US presidential election. The contest is now between the Democrats and The Maverick Party.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/mccain_ad_original_mavericks.html
Gotta love it. 🙂
No 211
LOL What a laugh. Go McCain/Palin!
NoBama
(203) Yes Harry. Newspoll 56/44. So why are so many political commentators banging on about some mythical message that is supposed to have been sent to Kevin Rudd out of the WA and NT elections.
I suppose a headline like “Rudd Government honeymoon continues unabated” is not controversial enough to sell a lot of newspapers.
The message from WA for Rudd is (a) no canals (b) no Brian Burkes (c) no chair sniffing (d) no early elections (e) no deals with the Nats. I think Rudd can cope with that.
No 213
I don’t think it can be considered a honeymoon any longer. The polls have been fairly consistent since December 2006.
[It’s official: the Republican Party has withdrawn from the US presidential election. The contest is now between the Democrats and The Maverick Party.]
Of course it is misleading; Palin supported the bridge to nowhere before opposing it. Even though by that stage federal money had already been spent building the bridge’s approach.
No more misleading than Obama’s two-faced positions on guns, abortion and several other things. Palin is Miss Consistency compared to him.
Yes Darn, the media continues to desperately concoct this narrative of an unpopular Rudd Government, which is constantly contradicted by each successive Newspoll!
Alan Carpenter I like, he comes across to me as disarmingly honest and frank!
I suspect that a Labor/National coalition government in WA would last longer than a Liberal/National arrangement, and it is indicative that the WA Nats leader is in close contact with Karleen Maywald in SA.
As it stands right now, Labor has the most seats, but it’s a tenuous position.
Adam: going completely off topic:
McCain now 3 points ahead of Obama(50-47). They should have picked Hillary.
I notice the Lib supporters in here are getting more and more irritable.
Even though I thought Barnett should win because of Labors ridiculous position on Uranium mining in WA, the reality of the situation is that Labor will be forming government with the help of either the independents or the Nats(or whoever will vote with them).
What amazes me is the cockyness of the Lib Brigade and their belief that if you get a swing against your government but you still end up on top, that the other mob have the right to rule. Sorry to break it to you lot, but thats not how our democracy works. Good luck in another 4 years
No 216
Obama has zero executive experience and his speeches, whilst endearing, are platitudinous at best.
The Nationals’ dilemma is interesting. Victorian experience may have some relevance. The Nationals suffered very badly in the 1999 election, when Kennett lost, because of the perception (or reality) of the disadvantage to the non-metro areas of the State. Specifically, the Nationals copped a lot of the blame, because of their coalition with the Liberals. Since then they have been identifiably more independent, and they have reaped some benefit, with a particular improvement in their numbers in the 2006 election (when they were widely expected to go backwards). Unlike the current situation in WA, this Nats revival passed largely unnoticed, because the gap between Labor and the Libs was too wide.
No 220
Labor Voter, your insufferable, cretinous arrogance is quite hypocritical in light of the immeasurable gloating (and denigration of Liberal supporters) by people of your ilk after the victory of Kevin Rudd.
Folks, you have your own thread for the US election. This one’s a lot closer to home for some of us. 😉
Mr Pot, meet Mrs Kettle 🙂
Generic Person: have a Bex and a good lie down! Relax mate, it ain’t that bad, still wall to wall Labor governments across the country!
Anybody see the 7.30 Report? Barnett looked like a made man, Carpenter looked like he hadn’t slept in a week. Just by body language, I’d say even if an ALP/Nat coalition happens, Carpenter won’t be premier in 6 months time. Any more of this craziness, and he’ll catch what Gallop had…
I think Alan and Annemarie need one of these 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2DUYcNHqXU
can people please stop talking about US politics in this wa thread, it’s bloody annoying
I doubt they’re desperate enough to have to listen to country music just yet.
re my 228, by coincidence, that song entered the Perth Charts 40 years ago on Saturday 🙂
It’s the lyrics Adam 🙂 And there isn’t a youtube of the WA Band The World Famous Oralettes performing “Dirty Weekend”, though that was about infedelity from both the Husband AND the Wife 🙂
Labor voter (#220): Go easy on those poor libs. A lib government in WA is the best thing that could happen for federal Labor, at least as far as the next federal election goes. You saw how WA voted in November last year … do you really want that to happen again?
Bird Of Paradox: a rather insensitive remark about depression, not something to be joked about! It’s to Geoff Gallop’s credit that he overcame his demons and is now ensconced in his new job at Sydney Uni.
Progressive: I wasn’t really joking there. In the interview, he looked like he was a couple more sleepless nights or nasty surprises away from something snapping and going horribly wrong upstairs. Understandable, given the last few days he must’ve had. As soon as the new govt gets sorted out one way or another, the guy needs a holiday on a beach somewhere. 😉
Any ALP supporters here with 2 brain cells to rub together will be hoping they don’t form government with the Nats
It is electoral SUICIDE…why sell out your base (the city) to the tune of 2.6 BILLION in the next 4 years for a pack of inbred banjo-twanging economic illiterates who got 4% of the vote, hate you anyway and will only let you govern when they feel like it?
How do you think the elctorate will react when they are told that Carpenter and Grylls want to take away their school upgrades, stadiums and rail lines for a fookin’ road to Port Hedland or some such ridiculous boondoggle?
Tell the Nats to get stuffed, let the Libs wear the oppobrium from the sell-out of the city and then watch Barnett try to govern with a one seat majority, a coalition of agrarian socialists, certifiable independents and the Dalkeith Mafia, and Buswell and the Courts stalking him for a chance to slip the knife. All the while one by-election from oblivion.
Meanwhile, clean out the Caucus, re-generate, move on from Carps and his merry band of incompetent fools and take bake government in four years.
Whoever does the deal with the Nats will lose in 2012 – guaranteed.
No 236
The question is why a government is involved in the building of stadiums. That is ridiculous “boondoggle” more than a road to Port Hedland would ever be.
Because the WA Football Commission, aided and Abetted by the sports mad media demanded it.
I should add as this is an AFL state, can you imagine the Backlash if the Government DIDN’T build a new stadium ?
Do the deal, do the deal. It’s getting old a boring, and I’ld love to see something you and innovative. Make history Nats, and please please please instantly record the look on every WA liberals face when it is announced.
that’s new and innovative
No 239
Can you imagine the praise if it redirected the $1 billion into schools and hospitals? 😛
Along with The West & the Sunday Times 🙂 Expect those editors to immediately start a campaign to de-stabilise the alliance and demand the Govenor to act and dissolve Parliament and demand a new election.
No 240
It is not new and innovative for a Nat to side with Labor. It has already been done in South Australia.
Problem is the Kath & Kims want both 🙂 And that poor bloke on Saturday who voted on the basis on the V8 Supercars being held in the City, he’ll be having Kittens 🙂
It is for the whole party to side with the ALP Mr GP
What little I have seen of Carpenter here in Vic I like. You can’t honestly have fatty boomba as your premier can you?
I’ll support the move as long as they call themselves the National-Socialists (NSPWA), as has been suggested here. 😉
Barnett will just use your funds to set up as many all you can eat places, all during the time of a national obesity epidemic
The Media here painted Carpenter as “Arrogant”, just because he said it straight, it seems the media have forgotten how Arrogant Howard was.