WA election minus two days

The big news of the last week has been Labor’s publicising of comprehensive internal polling from the marginal seats of Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. The figures show Labor trailing 34 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote, or 45-55 on two-party preferred. The trend line in the polling showed that just one week ago Labor was leading 52-48 on the back of a post-debate rally, restoring their fortunes after the much-touted 6 per cent swing picked up the previous week. I assume we’re talking about unadjusted results for the five specific seats, in which case they compare with a 2005 result of 51-49. It must be remembered that there are peculiarities to this particular collection of seats: Kingsley had a slightly anomalous result last time, local issues involving Leach Highway may be biting in Riverton, and Labor doesn’t have sitting members in its notionally held seats of Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. Against this is the fact that Labor can expect a better-than-average result in Albany, as they will be campaigning seriously in the newly added areas for the first time. On balance, the sample of seats used might be expected to add up to a slightly above average swing. If another 2 per cent can be accounted for by the margin of error and late efforts to scare waverers, Labor will still get its nose in front. Otherwise …

Labor is certainly behaving like a party with the smell of death in its nostrils, judging by the pitch of its scare campaigns on uranium mining and GM crops. However, The West Australian remains loftily dismissive of the message Labor is trying to send on polling, and indeed most other things. It should hope for vindication on this score, as last Thursday its front page proclaimed: “Forget talk of a tight race – Labor’s home, say WA’s two best political commentators”. Both of those commentators remain unmoved by the latest Labor figures. Paul Murray writes: “The pretty graphs shown fleetingly on television last night are not the detailed polling figures that are needed to examine Labor’s claims properly, as the ABC journalists who presented them know full well.” Such reliance on polling strategy is compared unfavourably with “Labor titans like John Curtin, Doc Evatt, Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke”, who “bravely plotted their own political courses, according to their consciences, in their dealings with the electors.” You are invited to contemplate a Paul Murray transported in time to the early 1970s, turning out columns in praise of the brave and principled leadership of Gough the Titan.

Robert Taylor writes that Labor “only has to improve between 2 and 3 per cent by polling day and it wins”, which makes it sound so easy. Furthermore, “the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff Gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory” – though on that occasion Labor had the free kick of Colin Barnett’s costings debacle two days out from polling day. Great weight is given to the survey’s other findings: “24 per cent of those polled said they could remember something that appealed to them about a Barnett message while 38 per cent said they could remember and liked something the Premier had said”, while only 31 per cent thought the Liberals ready for government (which interestingly compares with low-20s figures being put around at the start of the campaign). Expectations of the result are much as they’ve always been: 61 per cent of voters believed Labor would win, compared with 18 per cent for the Liberals. The bookies too remain non-plussed, offering $1.25 on Labor and $3.50 on Liberal.

UPDATE: Super-size all that: today the bottom of the front page is headlined, “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”. This is based on Labor’s refusal to release its figures for a second day running. The West is also literally running free Liberal advertising.

Also:

• More on The West Australian: A mirthful Matt Birney told 6PR’s Simon Beaumont that the Liberals had “certainly been aided and abetted by the West Australian newspaper – and more power to them I say, good on you guys, keep it up”. The West responded to this embarrassing assessment by criticising the ABC. Inside Cover’s Neale Prior went so far as to provide a direct number for ABC news chief Kim Jordan, encouraging readers to call and annoy him (anyone got Prior’s number?). Prior noted that the paper had equally been slammed for Labor bias by no less an authority than Colleen Mortimer, a reader who had sent them an email.

• The front page of the Liberal site features the television ad which Labor’s pollsters blame for their apparent slump. I personally don’t find the ad so devastating that it explains a 7 per cent reversal, and find myself wondering if the furore over the TruthAboutTroy website might have crystallised doubts about Labor’s style.

• There’s also a seventh radio ad on the Liberal site, and it’s yet another Whingeing Wendy effort (this time with a male voiceover). Radio advertising has been a point of difference between the two campaigns, with Labor’s jocular style typified by a depiction of Barnett as a quiz show contestant struggling with questions about uranium mining. In an interesting parallel with the federal campaign, Labor’s ads seem tailored for FM whereas the Liberals sound like they made theirs with talkback in mind.

• Ian Taylor, who led the Opposition for a year between the departure of Carmen Lawrence in 1994 and the brief tenure of Jim McGinty, has been expelled from the ALP for endorsing independent Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler in his campaign for Kalgoorlie. Bowler was one of the four ministers whose scalps were claimed by the Corruption and Crime Commission’s inquiries.

• The Western Australian Electoral Commission predictably dismissed a Liberal complaint against Labor ads attacking Barnett over “nuclear waste”, as its power lies only over material involving “the casting of the elector’s vote”. The complaint nonetheless succeeded in communicating the party’s grievance through news coverage.

• Labor’s big ticket campaign launch item of a rail line to Ellenbrook no doubt has a lot to recommend it on policy grounds, but it inevitably invites speculation as to the government’s electoral objectives. The line will serve the electorates of Midland, Morley, Bassendean, West Swan and Swan Hills. Notwithstanding the complicated state of play in Morley, the only one of the aforementioned which is on the electoral front line is the latter. The Liberals matched the promise in such short order that there was speculation Labor had locked in the policy to pre-empt them.

• Another interestingly targeted policy is Labor’s promise to change the public transport fare structure to make fares cheaper in the outer suburbs. This benefits a wide arc of marginal seats from Ocean Reef on the northern coast through Joondalup, Wanneroo and Swan Hills to Darling Range.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

485 comments on “WA election minus two days”

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  1. Midland to Ellenbrook’? I thought the Ellenbrook line was supposed to branch off at Bayswater?

    I’m assuming they’re meaning the Midland Line which would of course mean that it would most likely be branched off at Bayswater most probably at the rail crossing near Collier Rd.

  2. Truth is that Inpex don’t really care about who is in power and just want to get on with the project. In all honesty though, does WA really need it right now? We’ve got the Gorgon and Pluto projects getting underway soon which will put a massive strain on our already streched labour market.

  3. hmm ALP Internal Polling hasn’t improved.

    The Premier Alan Carpenter says he has been told Labor’s internal polling has not improved since the party strategically leaked figures two days ago.

    When Labor Party officials leaked their polling on Tuesday, it showed Labor trailing the Liberals by 45 per cent to 55 per cent on a two party preferred vote.

    Despite Labor’s polling, the bookmakers are strongly backing the party to win on Saturday.

    Mr Carpenter has denied suggestions Labor is overstating its poor showing in the polls.

    “The truth is the polls have got us in a situation where if the election was held two days ago we would have been soundly defeated,” he said.

    “That’s the stark reality. It’s happened around Australia previously.

    “It’s a reality that stares us in the face here.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355769.htm

  4. Can anyone tell me if the promised Ellenbrook line will also run down a freeway reservation like the Mandurah line or will it have its own reservation?

  5. Can anyone tell me if the promised Ellenbrook line will also run down a freeway reservation like the Mandurah line or will it have its own reservation?

    No Freeway down that way, so I’m assuming it will be down Lord St with possibly some Tunnelling involved.

  6. It will go up the middle of Tonkin Highway off Bayswater off the Midland line (basically a freeway)

    It can either then go along Reid Highway (also like a fwy) then up Lord St OR It can continue up the Tonkin Highway Reservation to Gnangara Road, then along Gnangara Road to Ellenbrook.

    So yes it is likely to be mainly in the median of major roads like the northern and southern suburbs railways.

    RE That polling, Labor must be quite concerned about protect votes? Or are they simply trying to make sure they get a healthy majority?

  7. I cannot believe in my heart of hearts that the Western Australian public will consciously elect a Liberal Government at this election. There’s no enthusiasm for Labor, sure, but every change of government here since 1974 (Tonkin’s one-seat victory in 1971 being something of an accident) has been towards a party with some semblance of a plan for the state.

    I’m reminded very much of NSW 2007 or the 1990 federal polls – voters would dearly love to vote for any other option besides the two majors. And as in 1990, I think Green preferences in the Perth metropolitan area will see Carps squeak home with a majority of 2 (ALP 31 / Lib 22 / Nat 3 / Ind 3).

  9. Darn: it’s yet to be planned, but it would most likely run in the Tonkin Hwy reserve from Bayswater north to Reid Hwy. That road currently has traffic lights every km or so, but has plenty of space to turn them into interchanges in the future (kinda like the Kwinana Fwy was in the 90’s), so they’d do that at the same time. Just looking at it on Google Maps, I’d say they’d put stations at those interchanges like on the Mandurah / Joondalup lines… Embleton at Broun Ave, and Noranda at Benara Rd.

    Tonkin Hwy will be extended north sometime, too… it’ll go around Ballajura and link up with Hepburn Ave, and the Tonkin Hwy / Reid Hwy junction will become a BIG interchange – something like the M7/M4 one in Sydney. The Ellenbrook line would probably run in the Reid Hwy reserve for a few km (with another station at, say, Altone Rd in Beechboro?), then run in its own reserve – possibly alongside Lord St, which may become a major highway itself one day. Not sure what they plan on doing at the Ellenbrook end – probably a tunnel.

  10. There is a reserve right through the middle of Ellenbrook for the rail line, the town centre is already being built around it, no need at all for tunnelling.

    So we will get a Newspoll and Westpoll 2mw, excellent. I think the west will pussy out and refuse to endorse either

  11. The Ellenbrook line has long been considered. There are two options, unless they develop more, on is a long loop around from Midland, the other is the more direct route up from Bayswater. No tunnelling is needed at the Ellenbrook end it was designed with a transit corridor.

  12. Hmm.

    RECYCLED West Australian Liberal leader Colin Barnett has turned his party’s fortunes around in the four weeks since he grabbed the reins.

    So complete has been the transformation of his previously beleaguered party, that some commentators believe Labor’s decision to call a snap election actually handed the opposition an advantage.

    The reasoning is that Mr Barnett could not have been afforded the luxury of a leadership “honeymoon” at a better time.

    Mr Barnett has had a charmed run since taking over as Liberal leader last month and quickly, albeit reluctantly, dumping his plans to build a canal from the Kimberley and Perth to solve the city’s water woes.

    It was a plan that cost him dearly the last time he tried to win government in 2005.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24293786-2761,00.html

  13. Checked the Kal Miner, the West Australian’s regional, to see what’s happening there. Couldn’t find a mention of Ian Taylor or much else but ‘Liberals target Kalgoorlie’. It rivals the West’s ‘WA Government fails children: Lib senator’ for campaign non-News with attitude. Wish I were back in Broome just to stoush with the media much less the Libs.

  17. And note how they Gave Barnett a bigger headline font and a photo, while Carpeter is just a link below it.

    The Sunday Times hasn’t gotten over that raid.

  19. Yep, I got “newspolled” last night (maybe night before). They were looking for a male in the 18-24 range.

    As did the Lazy Aussie from The Worst Of Perth last night.

  21. Ocean Reef prepares for WA election battle
    Source: The World Today
    Published: Thursday, September 4, 2008 12:20 AEST
    Expires: Wednesday, December 3, 2008 12:20 AEST

    Western Australia goes to the polls this weekend, and the new electorate of Ocean Reef in Perth’s northern suburbs is shaping up as one of the hot contests. The marginal seat is being contested by two well educated and enthusiastic young candidates.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2355302.htm

  23. Matt Birney on 6PR saying that due to the redistribution that Labor has an extra 17 seats, and mentioned that internal polling is only shown to the Leader, Party President and the State Director. It is not shown to the candidate.

    He will be taking calls till 5pm.

  31. I note that disgusting story on Fran Logan which was in the Dead Tree version of The West isn’t online.

    Oh and there has been nothing on the other media sites either.

  32. Frank #119 re newspoll. A bit guilty. I misheard him on the age range when he first asked, and after we went through all the other stuff, I didn’t want to disappoint him by telling him I was outside that range. I FEEL like a 34 year old though.
    I had to ask him whether there were alternatives to satisfied or dissatisfied for his questions. He didn’t tell me there was a neither until I asked.
    One of the questions was whether i was for or against Carps’ proposed anti uranium legislation. Since my shares in uranium explorers are already tanking, i had to register my strong disapproval with that one. Are South Australians any more mutated than they would have been without Olympic Dam?

  33. In the dying days of the election campaign in Western Australia, the Premier says he knows that voters want him to do better. Alan Carpenter has promised a better government if Labor is re-elected on Saturday. But Mr Carpenter was again downbeat today, suggesting that Labor’s polling figures had not improved. The former federal leader Kim Beazley says WA Labor is almost gone.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2355821.htm

  34. Sean – but do you mean the campy Adam West type Batman, the young and hip Christian Bale Batman, the Michael Keaton Batman or some other type? 😉

  35. Labor still fighting in Kingsley. I thought they were giving it away as a lost cause a couple of weeks ago.

    [LABOR hasn’t given up hope of retaining a key suburban seat in the West Australian state election this Saturday.

    Kingsley, in Perth’s northern suburbs, is held by Government MP Judy Hughes by just 0.1 per cent following a redistribution of boundaries after the 2005 election.

    It was the only seat Labor gained from the Liberals three years ago and will be the first to change hands on Saturday if there is a swing against the Government.

    Ms Hughes rejects reports the ALP has given up any hope of holding its most marginal seat in parliament.

    “No, they haven’t given up on this seat,” she told ABC radio.

    “It’s a tough one, and I think that the reality is if we don’t get across the line, it would be bad news I think for Western Australia.

    “We have been working pretty much around the clock, trying to get to as many people as we possibly can, to let them know what we have been doing for the last three and a half years.”

    The Liberal Party needs a swing of 6.1 per cent to win Government in its own right or 4.5 per cent for a coalition with The Nationals.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24291707-5006789,00.html

  36. Our Anthony says Labor can win 🙂

    DAVID WEBER: The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green won’t make a prediction but he says Labor can win.

    ANTONY GREEN: How you think it’s going to go at the start is normally how the campaign finishes. Is that during a campaign all you ever do is reinforce the political attitude that was already there at the start of the campaign.

    If Labor wins this election with a reasonable vote of course they’ll turn around and say oh it was our brilliant late campaigning and we turned around our opinion polls. They won’t admit they might have lied about the opinion polls, you don’t know. I mean, you never know. You can never really trust party polling.

    But as someone said to me this week, is they think that Labor must be really serious because the party secretary was actually being nice to the media when they came along for these opinion polls and normally he’s very gruff and very dismissive of the media.

    MARK COLVIN: The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green ending David Weber’s report.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2355821.htm

  39. “at approximately 11pm WST”

    Frank, I don’t have to wait that long at my local dentist, but I’m sure Newspoll’s arrival will coincide with a huge betting splurge whichever way it goes.

  40. Re. Kingsley: I reckon that’d be just Judy Hughes, doing it with less resources (and probably having a quiet grump at the higher-ups). The party may have decided not to bother with the seat, but she won’t want to lose it herself – she’d have to find another job. 😉

  42. Today’s letterbox drop in Mundaring…
    Judy Moylan glossy
    WAEC – Swan Hills polling places leaflet (addressed to all WA electors)
    Giffard leaflet (includes $20 million to upgrade Bullsbrook district high school – no doubt complete with car park for the Rolls/Mercs and Beamers!!!
    Rachael Siewert pamphlet… no mention of WA election
    Giffard letter and postcard on anti-uranium mining (addressed to both me and my wife – they must cross check the electoral rolls)

    Nothing from other candidates… perhaps tomorrow I’ll call in the bobcat man to empty the mailbox

  43. Re: Antony Green’s comments about Bill Johnston being nice to the media – surely he can’t be too abrasive to the journos – he does want his party to win and is a candidate in his own right after all – albeit in a very safe seat.

  44. Its a bit sad – there would need to be a political earthquake for Johnston not to get in, yet his attitude and negavity has really defined the campaign.

  45. further, its a bit of a shame Bill wasn’t in a seat with like a 5% margin, he would have been shitting himself. The journos have obviously been waiting for awhile to sink the boots in on him, judging by the way they pounced on him.

  46. I feel exactly the same way Joe and, what’s worse, he’ll be my local member. His negative campaign has really depressed me about my poor little seat.
    I am yet to see a single statement about what he will do for my electorate. (Of course, the Libs haven’t made me any promises either but why would they – a drover’s dog would get elected in Cannington for the ALP).

  48. Yup. The problem with Bill is that he’ll definately be a poor local member, but doesn’t seem to be much a “big picture” guy either.

    I’m in Vic Park, with Ben Wyatt, and while a drovers dog could get elected there too, all credit to Ben, he has worked his arse off around the area, i even got door knocked!

  49. Aristotle #128 – There’s something strange going on if Labor are claiming to be in dire straits while the betting odds are showing otherwise. Perhaps the people betting also think Labor will win easily, but will vote Liberal. Weren’t the odds for the Northern Territory election also heavily in favour of Labor? We know how close that was. Most people seem to want to vote Liberal but believe Labor will win. I’m not sure how useful the betting odds are if that’s the case.

  50. the betting odds are really weird, and quite tempting… in a two horse race that guys like William here are calling as quite close? Good odds – though i’m wondering if the 3.25 is for an outright Liberal win? in which case i’d want like 20 to 1.

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