WA election minus two days

The big news of the last week has been Labor’s publicising of comprehensive internal polling from the marginal seats of Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. The figures show Labor trailing 34 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote, or 45-55 on two-party preferred. The trend line in the polling showed that just one week ago Labor was leading 52-48 on the back of a post-debate rally, restoring their fortunes after the much-touted 6 per cent swing picked up the previous week. I assume we’re talking about unadjusted results for the five specific seats, in which case they compare with a 2005 result of 51-49. It must be remembered that there are peculiarities to this particular collection of seats: Kingsley had a slightly anomalous result last time, local issues involving Leach Highway may be biting in Riverton, and Labor doesn’t have sitting members in its notionally held seats of Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. Against this is the fact that Labor can expect a better-than-average result in Albany, as they will be campaigning seriously in the newly added areas for the first time. On balance, the sample of seats used might be expected to add up to a slightly above average swing. If another 2 per cent can be accounted for by the margin of error and late efforts to scare waverers, Labor will still get its nose in front. Otherwise …

Labor is certainly behaving like a party with the smell of death in its nostrils, judging by the pitch of its scare campaigns on uranium mining and GM crops. However, The West Australian remains loftily dismissive of the message Labor is trying to send on polling, and indeed most other things. It should hope for vindication on this score, as last Thursday its front page proclaimed: “Forget talk of a tight race – Labor’s home, say WA’s two best political commentators”. Both of those commentators remain unmoved by the latest Labor figures. Paul Murray writes: “The pretty graphs shown fleetingly on television last night are not the detailed polling figures that are needed to examine Labor’s claims properly, as the ABC journalists who presented them know full well.” Such reliance on polling strategy is compared unfavourably with “Labor titans like John Curtin, Doc Evatt, Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke”, who “bravely plotted their own political courses, according to their consciences, in their dealings with the electors.” You are invited to contemplate a Paul Murray transported in time to the early 1970s, turning out columns in praise of the brave and principled leadership of Gough the Titan.

Robert Taylor writes that Labor “only has to improve between 2 and 3 per cent by polling day and it wins”, which makes it sound so easy. Furthermore, “the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff Gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory” – though on that occasion Labor had the free kick of Colin Barnett’s costings debacle two days out from polling day. Great weight is given to the survey’s other findings: “24 per cent of those polled said they could remember something that appealed to them about a Barnett message while 38 per cent said they could remember and liked something the Premier had said”, while only 31 per cent thought the Liberals ready for government (which interestingly compares with low-20s figures being put around at the start of the campaign). Expectations of the result are much as they’ve always been: 61 per cent of voters believed Labor would win, compared with 18 per cent for the Liberals. The bookies too remain non-plussed, offering $1.25 on Labor and $3.50 on Liberal.

UPDATE: Super-size all that: today the bottom of the front page is headlined, “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”. This is based on Labor’s refusal to release its figures for a second day running. The West is also literally running free Liberal advertising.

Also:

• More on The West Australian: A mirthful Matt Birney told 6PR’s Simon Beaumont that the Liberals had “certainly been aided and abetted by the West Australian newspaper – and more power to them I say, good on you guys, keep it up”. The West responded to this embarrassing assessment by criticising the ABC. Inside Cover’s Neale Prior went so far as to provide a direct number for ABC news chief Kim Jordan, encouraging readers to call and annoy him (anyone got Prior’s number?). Prior noted that the paper had equally been slammed for Labor bias by no less an authority than Colleen Mortimer, a reader who had sent them an email.

• The front page of the Liberal site features the television ad which Labor’s pollsters blame for their apparent slump. I personally don’t find the ad so devastating that it explains a 7 per cent reversal, and find myself wondering if the furore over the TruthAboutTroy website might have crystallised doubts about Labor’s style.

• There’s also a seventh radio ad on the Liberal site, and it’s yet another Whingeing Wendy effort (this time with a male voiceover). Radio advertising has been a point of difference between the two campaigns, with Labor’s jocular style typified by a depiction of Barnett as a quiz show contestant struggling with questions about uranium mining. In an interesting parallel with the federal campaign, Labor’s ads seem tailored for FM whereas the Liberals sound like they made theirs with talkback in mind.

• Ian Taylor, who led the Opposition for a year between the departure of Carmen Lawrence in 1994 and the brief tenure of Jim McGinty, has been expelled from the ALP for endorsing independent Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler in his campaign for Kalgoorlie. Bowler was one of the four ministers whose scalps were claimed by the Corruption and Crime Commission’s inquiries.

• The Western Australian Electoral Commission predictably dismissed a Liberal complaint against Labor ads attacking Barnett over “nuclear waste”, as its power lies only over material involving “the casting of the elector’s vote”. The complaint nonetheless succeeded in communicating the party’s grievance through news coverage.

• Labor’s big ticket campaign launch item of a rail line to Ellenbrook no doubt has a lot to recommend it on policy grounds, but it inevitably invites speculation as to the government’s electoral objectives. The line will serve the electorates of Midland, Morley, Bassendean, West Swan and Swan Hills. Notwithstanding the complicated state of play in Morley, the only one of the aforementioned which is on the electoral front line is the latter. The Liberals matched the promise in such short order that there was speculation Labor had locked in the policy to pre-empt them.

• Another interestingly targeted policy is Labor’s promise to change the public transport fare structure to make fares cheaper in the outer suburbs. This benefits a wide arc of marginal seats from Ocean Reef on the northern coast through Joondalup, Wanneroo and Swan Hills to Darling Range.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

485 comments on “WA election minus two days”

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  3. Duke, the difference here is that the betting hasn’t started yet. In the NT big money consistently went to Labor. That’s why I say Newspoll will be crucial. In roughly a 24 hour period from 6.00pm last night to 6.00pm tonight the volume on Betfair was $7 bet on the Liberals and $30 on Labor. Chickenfeed compared to what we are likely to see in the next 24 hours.

  6. Oh and Tomorrow the real poll that matter comes out – the Miss Maud Coffee Bean Poll. As decided by the old biddies and others who go there for lunch.

  7. If that poll is anything to go by Frank then I guess Labor will be completely wiped out. Maybe the Miss Maud Coffee Bean Poll should replace the state election as the means by which we choose whom to govern. Certainly would make a bit of money for MM, and who doesn’t like to sip a coffee while they vote?

  9. It would be funny if Labor lost the election given they introduced One Vote One Value to benefit themselves, that being said 9 seats is a lot.

    I fear the consequences if the Nats hold the balance of power.

  10. I think it would be better for all city-dwellers, whether Labor or Liberal, that the Nats did not hold the balance of power. I for one would much prefer a majority Labor or Liberal government.

  11. It may be not only the Nationals who hold the balance of power. I’m predicting a different sort of coalition, with several independents, Nats, Greens and others forming govt with Liberals. The Independent candidates look like they’re people who didn’t get chosen by Liberals, but who still support the Liberals, or disaffected ex-ALP people like John Bowler and John D’Orazio who might well support the Liberals out of spite, if nothing else.

    Re a post of mine last night about hospitals – I’m glad that Swan Districts has emergency services. I was thinking about maternity cases that got shifted all the way to KEMH. By the way, although there is a hospital at Osborne Park, there are no ED services – in an area with difficult access to Charlies, yet the local population has risen 3-fold due to the infill development so beloved by Alannah.

  12. The question remains as to whether the Libs can retain Nedlands and pick up maybe Alfred Cove to defeat these ‘Independent Liberals’. If they can hold Nedlands and win back Alfred Cove they’ll be looking good to win Government.

    Helen, i agree it should be a majority government either way.

  14. Helen – in all honesty I doubt there will be a large number of independents or greens after the election. 3-4 Nats is likely, and maybe 2 independents? There certainly shouldn’t be more than 4 independents, although we’ll see. I may be completely wrong about all this you know. There might end up being 6 independents and 6 nationals, who knows???? I wish that newspoll would come out earlier! All this waiting is causing me to become quite apprehensive and unable to concentrate on anything else.

  15. For any of you who can stomach it, Noel Chriton Brown has an interesting piece in Crikey called “Carpenter, Ripper, bras, booze and honesty”.
    Where’s Frank and his committee? Wonder what they’re getting up to.

  16. My faith in the parliamentary democracy will be tarnished if the Carpenter Government is returned, because i believe that any Government which is corrupt, of any Party, let alone one with 5 Ministers resigning, does not deserve to be re-elected.

    That being said if the Liberals fail to win, they’ll have only themselves to blame.

  17. Average Joe # 148

    Also in Ben Wyatt’s electorate. I think he’s campaigned hard but is also a very, very active member – election or not. Always out and about doing something or other. He was handing out flyers at Vic Park train station at 7.00am last week. And I got a flyer from him in my letter box this week with endorsements from locals. One of the endorsements was form the LIBERAL ex mayor of Vic Park. Go figure.

  18. For any of you who can stomach it, Noel Chriton Brown has an interesting piece in Crikey called “Carpenter, Ripper, bras, booze and honesty”.
    Where’s Frank and his committee? Wonder what they’re getting up to.

    NCB – Pot & Kettle – he should talk.

  21. Frank
    this is a dog whistle from howard central
    google has 531 articles on it

    the msm are in full frenzy and like lindsaygate hopefully it will get exposed

    but this time they are a bit smarter instead of a week or so its less tahn 2 f..ng days.

    too little time to rebutt- anyway the msm wouldnt give it legs ..sigh

    hope it backfires big time

  22. Mount Lawley:
    1 x addressed postcard from the Libs
    1 x direct letter from the libs
    1 x direct letter from labor

    My prediction is that mount lawley is going to be a smokey due to the amount of stuff we have received. It makes sense I suppose – Menora/Coolbinia/Mount Lawley are all fairly safe Liberal areas and Michael Keenan looks after the rest of the seat. The only strong Labor bits are around Maylands. Kucera’s personal vote will also go.

  23. Fact 1
    the flight in question was last thursday
    “Ms Bishop says she witnessed the incident on a Qantas flight last Thursday night from Canberra to Sydney”

    fact 2
    there was no bullying!
    ‘She was menacing in her tone [and] she was walking very close to Dr Nelson so I moved out into the aisle to stand in between them as I got my bag out of the overhead locker.”

    However, Ms Bishop stopped short of calling Ms Neal’s behaviour bullying.’

    Fact 3
    note the timing
    “Yesterday police announced Ms Neal and her husband, New South Wales MP John Della Bosca, would not face any charges over an alleged incident at the Iguanas nightclub on the NSW central coast”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355779.htm?section=justin

  25. Just checked with Sportsbet and disappointed to find they are not betting on the WA Poll.

    For those interested in the odds for the US election, it’s $1.43 Obama, $2.85 McCain.

  27. Thanks Frank. Interesting to see the Libs are out to $3.75 with Centrebet. It seems they’re having a lot of trouble getting anyone to back them.

  28. 174 Darn: It’s unlikely. If they lose half a dozen seats to the Liberals, and D’Orazio or Bowler win in Morley or Kalgoorlie, it may happen, but most of the non-Labor/Liberal people likely to get elected are conservative (ex-Liberal independents or Nationals), so if here’s a minority govt it would probably be Liberal.

  29. gusface #173: In all honesty, I would have to believe Mrs Bishop in that dispute, despite the rather dubious timing. Mainly because she speaks properly, dresses well and behaves properly, unlike Mrs Neal – who, if you haven’t worked out, I don’t like. By the way, why the conspicuous use of ‘Ms’? I thought that was limited to arts lecturers at university.

  33. I don’t believe Julie Bishop is a Mrs – I thought she was a Ms (isn’t she ‘involved’ with the former Lord Mayor?). Who does like Belinda Neal – even her former staffers aren’t fans!

  34. On Centrebet Labor odds shortened to 1.22 from 1.25 and libs out to 3.75 from 3.50

    now that is interesting considering Carps comments at PMH, as well as Anthony’s on PM.

    I note that this time there hasn’t been any smoking gun cockups, bar thetruthabottroy.com

  35. Duke

    “By the way, why the conspicuous use of ‘Ms’? I thought that was limited to arts lecturers at university.”

    dunno,those are ABC quotes not mine.

  38. Courtesy of The Voice of Reason, the front page of tomorrow’s West. Unfortunately, no Westpoll and a non-election lead story. However, the article on the bottom row exposes the Liberals to high-profile scrutiny, which the paper seems to have felt unnecessary through the course of the campaign due to the certainty of Labor victory.

  40. there’s a 12 page wrap around in The West tomorrow (something to look forward to ; ) )
    surprisingly it’s the most balanced of the campaign. Paul Murray declares that Labor deserves to lose but the Liberals don’t deserve to win.

    the catholics amongst us will be praying to St Jude

  43. Paul Murray declares that Labor deserves to lose but the Liberals don’t deserve to win.

    Ahh sitting on the fence after his bold prediction in 2005 🙂

    Any editorial ?

  44. The Seats in play according to The West

    The new battleground according to the west:
    Dawesville: Kim Hames vs Marion Blair
    Darling Range: Lisa Griffiths vs Tony Simpson
    Kalamunda: John Day vs Juliana Plummer
    Kingsley: Andrea Mitchell vs Judy Hughes
    Nedlands: Sue Walker vs Bill Marmion
    Ocean Reef: Louise Durack vs Albert Jacobs
    Riverton: Tony McRae vs Mike Nahan
    Scarborough: Liza Harvey vs Scott Blackwell
    Swan Hills: Graham Giffard vs Frank Alban
    Albany: Peter Watson vs Andrew Partington
    Bunbury: John Castrilli vs Peter McFarlane
    Collie_Preston: Mick Murray vs Steve Thomas
    Geraldton: Shane Hill vs Ian Blayney
    Kalgoorlie: John Bowler vs Nat James vs Matthew Cuomo
    North West: Vince Catania vs Rod Sweetman

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