6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.
6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.
6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.
6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.
6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.
6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.
6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.
6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.
6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.
6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.
6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.
6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.
6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.
6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.
7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.
7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.
7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.
7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.
7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.
7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.
7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.
7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.
7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.
7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.
7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.
7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.
7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.
7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …
7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.
7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.
7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.
7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.
7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.
7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.
8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.
8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.
8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.
8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.
8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.
8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.
8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.
8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.
8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.
8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.
8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.
8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.
8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.
8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.
9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.
9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.
9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.
Never knew the reason they knifed Martin except someone else wanting to be king and queen. I guess they assumed the huge backlash firstly against a corrupt and arrogant CLP under Stone then Burke would continue to carry through. But people have obviously forgotten those days and voting for what they think of the ALP.
Arafura showing 11% swing to CLP with 4 of 5 booths having an actual 2PP count. Labor leads easily 63-37.
Tollner’s lead has narrowed from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
If it was a horse race the stewerds would be investigating. However, it is a little hard to take a dive in an election.
There is a quite low turnout in Fong Lim, and there may be a large number of absentee votes, so Tollner is not safe yet.
Clearly if Clare Martin had led the ALP to the polls she would’ve won.Even if the swings were similar she would’ve held onto Fannie Bay easily, and she seems to still have some life left in her.
Smart people in the Labor Party.
Also, anyone remember the supposed reason Paul Henderson gave for calling an early election? What does a hung parliament do for stability?
I gather because of the new boundaries there is an unusually high absent vote, which is not being counted tonight. With such dinky little seats this late counting could make significant differences to tonight’s apparent results.
Surely Terry Mills has shored up his position?
Yes I dare say Clare Martin would be chuckling into the chardy tonight. A touch of schadenfreude eh?
Will the NT ALP be doing any soul searching? or will it be dismissed as rednecks voting for rednecks after 2 temporary abberations?
Final result will be Labor 13, CLP 11, Independent 1. Labor to hold Fannie Bay by a slightly smaller margin than Clare Martin first won it.
State elections tend to have a little higher rate of people not voting (because there is no way of voting interstate). And the population of NT moves around a lot more than the rest of Australia. Their trips interstate tend to last longer than Australians too (due to distance).
A couple of observations on the Fong Lim figures.
All booths counted and a total of 2,684 votes counted out of a total enrollment of 4,883. Has NT adopted non-compulsory voting or there a huge proportion of absentee and pre-poll voting in NT?
2 candidates and 145 informal votes – just over 5% !?
ESJ, I’d expect if Labor scrape in with this one cabinet will be meeting regularly in Alice Springs.
Well Clare Martin is stuck on ABC1 unable to get away from the cameras and doesn’t look that happy.
Lord D @ 144
My recollection is that the final opinion polls for the Vic election in 1999 predicted a close result – but few believed it and the Libs were generally expected to win easily.
In a way it’s good to see that the bookies seem to be way off in this NT election. Perhaps this might puncture the myth that the bookies odds are the best guide to election results.
To be fair though – 5000 votes per seat means the personal factor is everything. It might not be a swing against the government as much as one or two unpersonable MP’s. Thats the beauty of NT politics I guess.
I have to say it is the NT. Like Kerry, no seat can be considered Safe in the NT. Very small population per seat.
Apologies to newcomers whose comments have been locked up in moderation.
William:
Those who undermined her have no business being in politics.
A bit strong, I’d venture although at least she kept talking in the third person to a minimum unlike the apparently re-elected incumbent:
The former fitter who took over the leadership in November said he slept well last night and was “absolutely committed” to staying in the top job.
“There are few years in Hendo yet,” he (Hendo) said.
What a tosser.
Paranoia moment. Given that Anderson has endorsed the intervention, reportedly hates and the CLP hasn’t run against her is there a chance they think they can woo her across if it would change the government?
Well it is not such a bad thing for the NT. The the loss and the thrashing the CLP received in the past seems to has cleared them out of their old nasties, made them humble and got them to restock.
They are not the same racist corrupt group they were. Even Terry Mills worrying about environmental issues for the LNGP plant. The previous CLP would have built it in the middle of the CBD if that is what it took. Probably what needs to happen on a Federal level too – the LNP get a thrashing next time around etc.
The independent Gerry Wood is already salivating and playing hard to get.
The outcome of the Territory election is in the balance with Labor losing four seats and the outcome hinging largely on the result in the Darwin seat of Fannie Bay.
Mr Wood would not say which party he would support if he holds the balance of power.
“I would give it the due consideration that Territorians would expect of me,” he said.
NT Independent ponders balance of power
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/09/2330040.htm
He’d be a mug if he did otherwise.
If it is 13-11 all it will take is one Labor rat or one Labor MP’s unhealthy eating habits to catch up with them – and “Hendo” will be off to the knackers.
Winston, yes that’s the difference. In Vic we had opinion polls, not in NT. Even in the final polls, Newspoll and Morgan both got it about right, but AC Nielson was garbage, predicting a 54-46 Coalition victory – similar to its problem in the last Fed election, when its final poll said 57-43 Labor.
Thomas Paine: “The the loss and the thrashing the CLP received in the past seems to has cleared them out of their old nasties, made them humble and got them to restock.”
Pity Dave Tollner has re-emerged from the undergrowth.
In the end the NT-wide 2PP vote is useless. The overall swing was about 8%, yet the first five seats on the pendulum look like falling, which the pendulum would’ve predicted would’ve required a 16% swing.
Also I reckon if the CLP just edges out the ALP you have to assume that MacDonnell and Arnhem would’ve given Labor a majority (maybe a moral majority!)
Could someone explain to me why there are two CLP candidates in Arafura? I don’t think I’ve seen such a situation in Australian elections before (of course, that’s not saying much, I haven’t been watching for long).
Does this tell us anything about how the Territorians, and more importantly the indigenous community, view the Intervention?
Diogenes perhaps they don’t like Laura Norda campaigns.
Agree with William, Diogenes.
To describe Woods as “already salivating and playing hard to get”, is a bit over the top.
Woods is taking the only sensible path available to him.
Does this tell us anything about how the Territorians, and more importantly the indigenous community, view the Intervention?
No.
is the 65.7% turnout in Fannie Bay correct? Is this normal for NT?
[Does this tell us anything about how the Territorians, and more importantly the indigenous community, view the Intervention?]
Maybe, but another factor is the Garma Festival which is on this weekend and the large number of absentee votes as the majority of the Indigenous voters would’ve voted at the booth there, and which will not be counted until Monday.
I hardly hear anyone mention the intervention up here. You wouldn’t know there was one from talking to a lot of the people. In fact it is hard to pick up on any issue that seems to have gotten people going. The low voter turn out indicates that people were not much interested in anything.
Maybe housing prices and high rentals? A fair bit of negative press along the way and of course Terry Mills comes over as nice genuine sort of a guy, calm and stable so people wouldn’t have been put off by him. But other than that you have to wonder if people are balancing the ledger of having a Federal Labor.
How come the counting for tonight is almost complete and they have not addressed the results in Arnhem (or whatever they have named that electorate since the redistribution)? How can I find out whether Malarndirri McCarthy has retained her seat? Rather bad coverage on the part of aunty!
At some stage the Wall-to-Wall Labor governments was going to end. If the ALP was to choose a State or Territory to lose, the NT would probably be the choice (the smallest population, the most difficult issues)
Fair enough. My apologies to Mr Wood. Although if I was him, I’d be salivating and playing hard to get. It’s an independent’s dream. 🙂
I’m just horrified the what we’re going to have to put up with from Shanahan etc if Labor loses. I can see it now. After 25 (?) successive state wins, Rudd’s election sets the scene for an unexpected Labor loss. A ringing endorsement of Howard’s intervention. Labor becoming arrogant and out of touch blah blah
I have to agree with the interviewer question to Henderson, the ALP ran a negative campaign that was off putting.
Henderson is conceding only Sanderson. His four seats in doubt are presumably Brennan, Port Darwin, Fong Lim and Fannie Bay. Given the large proportion of uncounted absent votes, this seems a fair call. Labor only needs one of the four to win 13 seats.
“But other than that you have to wonder if people are balancing the ledger of having a Federal Labor.”
If you accept that proposition (which is certainly a reasonable argument) then some voters would have been voting Labor locally to “balance the ledger” when Howard was in power.
185 – You’re not Dennis yourself?
185: Hah, Labor’s probally performed poorly enough for Shanahan to do that regardless of who wins.
If Labor retain government in the NT Dennis will be saying those things anyway.
The obvious solution is not to read the Liberal Party Press Organ aka The Australian.
James J – snap.
I was wondering when the voice of Pravda would show up.
Its a bad result for Labor – end of story. If you were Malcolm Turnbull you’d certainly be very encouraged at how politics is going to play out in 2010.
-Weakening economy
– Fed Govt takes the blame/ poor performance to date
– electorate does not appear to be enamoured of Labor
Strong/positive Liberal leadership – who knows what could happen eh?
ESJ, a nice attempt at spin, but you obviously don’t have much experience with Territory politics, it holds no lessons for the federal scene.
Does anyone know when absentee and postal votes are to be counted? Will counting resume tomorrow or on Monday?
I am actually unaware of any particular difference between the two parties that matters.
From my observation of the CLP they certainly don’t reflect the Federal Liberal party. I don’t see any weirdo right wingers etc. I suspect you could swap parties and not notice the difference.