Northern Territory election live

6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.

6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.

6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.

6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.

6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.

6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.

6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.

6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.

6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.

6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.

6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.

6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.

6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.

6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.

7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.

7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.

7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.

7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.

7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.

7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.

7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.

7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.

7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.

7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.

7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.

7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.

7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.

7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …

7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.

7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.

7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.

7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.

7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.

7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.

8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.

8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.

8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.

8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.

8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.

8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.

8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.

8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.

8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.

8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.

8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.

8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.

8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.

8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.

9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.

9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.

9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe