6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.
6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.
6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.
6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.
6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.
6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.
6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.
6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.
6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.
6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.
6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.
6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.
6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.
6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.
7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.
7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.
7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.
7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.
7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.
7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.
7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.
7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.
7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.
7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.
7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.
7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.
7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.
7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …
7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.
7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.
7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.
7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.
7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.
7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.
8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.
8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.
8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.
8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.
8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.
8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.
8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.
8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.
8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.
8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.
8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.
8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.
8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.
8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.
9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.
9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.
9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.
CLP wins Sanderson.
It’s going to be a bit of a blow for the government if both Sanderson and Fong Lim (plus Drysdale) have fallen: three ministers losing their seats is not a good look.
Anyone disagree with any of this:
Drysdale and Goyder are both notional CLP seats, so the CLP wins there don’t signify. The real or possible CLP gains seems to be Fong Lim, Port Darwin and Sanderson. The last I heard Labor was holding Brennan and Fannie Bay. I wouldn’t call three gains much of a result for the CLP.
Help me out here Ben – are you a chance of winning anything?
Admittedly something pretty freaky would have to happen in the outstanding Fannie Bay booth. Brennan still too early to say.
Can’t find the Sanderson results on the ABC site.
Just Me, I heard that on the radio. Nobody seems to be in doubt about it. However, Labor have held Casuarina, so my best case CLP scenario is now 12 seats (and that’s VERY best case).
You talking to me William?
No, we’re not. All three Alice seats are safe enough for the CLP. If we beat the ALP it won’t help. The CLP has a significant primary vote majority in all three.
Our best result is Nightcliff on 23.6%, but we’re still 10% behind the CLP there.
Thanks Ben.
Anyone know anything about Daly?
William! (@55) Given the discussions of dramatic repercussions for Greens, I’d call it doing okay. The issue as always is finding the required 25 candidates to run, especailly when an election is called as quickly as this was. So, while not winning a seat, the vote is good and strong, bodes well for the future in terms of local Councils, and the potential for a Green win in the next 2 electoral cycles.
But then, I’d also be worried about the poor turnout (or absentee votes?).
Why are the updates for the most crucial seats always the slowest? Sanderson and Brennan, has that been mentioned on the radio?
I wouldn’t have thought it possible either, but my ears prick up when I hear talk of them coming second. They’re seats I hadn’t been looking at.
Currently Labor to win by 5 seats according to latest ABC news.
Wish you’d run a Green in Sanderson… I had to choose between a guy who got pissed at the cricket and sexually harassed a woman, and the liberal candidate. So, of course, I was forced to vote Labor again…
Once NT politics was dominated by race and incumbency advantage. It now seems to have normalised to be much more like the rest of Australia, although look at the poor performance by the indigenous CLP candidate in Nhulunbuy as an indication of what some CLP voters still think?
Thanks William.
Jodeen Carney (Araluen) is doing extremely well. Increased her margin for the second election running, this time with a 20% swing (so far).
ABC Radio panel saying
CLP 9
ALP 12
Ind 1
Too close to call 3
If the Greens had a candidate as good as Jane Clark in a seat as good as Nightcliff I reckon we might have had a show. Pity there’s about 2000km between them.
although look at the poor performance by the indigenous CLP candidate in Nhulunbuy as an indication of what some CLP voters still think?
Possibly. But Nhulunbuy has always been a strong Labor seat.
[Possibly. But Nhulunbuy has always been a strong Labor seat.]
And no doubt the NT Intervention would’ve had an effect with the locals distrusting of Liberal/CLP Politicians whatever their racial background.
brennan in trouble, daly and johnston looking good for ALP, according to the TV
What’s going on in Brennan?
There’s been no updates on the ALP website since it showed a 5.9% swing to the Labor Party, but now Antony Green is saying it’s been lost.
Okay, it’s been updated now to a CLP gain with a 3.8% swing.
ABC online now calling ALP13, CLP 11, Ind 1. But seats haven’t updated so no indication where CLP has supposedly ‘won’ an extra 2 seats…
Brennan would make four CLP gains. What are the other seats in doubt?
Brennan looks to go to CLP with 3.8% swing with 58%counted. It was a 0.6% margin.
OK now giving CLP Brennan and Sanderson (apparently)
75: ABC computer has Fong Lim, Port Darwin, Sanderson, and Brennan as CLP gains.
I would call four CLP gains only a predictable correction after the whopping defeat they had last time. Where are the other two doubtful seats?
James J, how come Drysdale isn’t on the list?
WA markets will be interesting after this.
As a summary,
the CLP seem to have gained Brennan, Sanderson, Port Darwin and Fong Lim, as well as Braitling, Goyder and Drysdale, which were notionally CLP.
The only other close seats seem to be Fannie Bay and Stuart, but Labor is still leading in both.
So, overall.
ALP: Nightcliff, Johnston, Karama, Casuarina, Wanguri, Arafura, Daly, Arnhem, Nhulunbuy, Barkly, MacDonnell, and maybe Fannie Bay and Stuart.
CLP: Sanderson, Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Braitling, Araluen, Greatorex, Goyder, Drysdale, Blain, Katherine and maybe Brennan.
IND: Nelson
I reckon CLP gains: Braitling (Ind), Brennan, Drysdale, Sanderson, Goyder.
Undecided: Fannie Bat, Port darwin, Fong Lim.
So 12-9-1 so far
Drysdale and Goyder became notionally CLP following the redistribution so are not classified as CLP gains by the ABC website.
Who does the independent support in the case of a hung parliament?
Wonder how much the CLPs threat to public services jobs cost them?
I’m open to disagreement here, but the CLP has held all six of its seats, recovered Braitling, won Brennan, Port Darwin and Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay. Twelve seats and a hung parliament not out of the question.
Antony Green says that the 17.5% swing in Stuart is unreliable and should be lower and thus not so close for the ALP.
3 observations:
1. A conservative electorate reverting to the mean
2. Australia wide appears to be a pattern of some of the paint being stripped off Labor margins at State and Territory level with the 2nd generation leadership
3. Suggests we will be seeing a string of Liberal governments at the State level from about March 2011 onwards.
Yeah, if they pull ahead in Fannie Bay and stay ahead in Fong Lim and Brennan it’s a dead heat.
Who knows what Gerry Wood will do if the parliament is hung?
Being only one or two seats from government and defeating up to six sitting members (incl the two notional CLP seats with ALP members) in good economic times must be a pretty good result for the CLP, considering the predictions were a 2-3 seat gain at most. Probably there’s a very strong Clare Martin factor where most territorians were voting for her personally rather than the ALP.
90 Edward – I agree with your prediction but one election doesn’t make a trend.
ESJ,
If there’s going to be such a “string of Liberal governments”, why would it begin with the state which will be last to go to the polls?
Remember, before NSW there will be elections in WA, SA, Tas, Victoria, Queensland, and the ACT. In other words, everywhere.
Twelve seats and a hung parliament not out of the question.
Indeed.
I have very little doubt that Gerry Wood would back the CLP if it came down to it.
I agree with Edward’s first two points. On point three, I can see only NSW as even a possible Coalition win in the next cycle, and the NSW Libs have a long history of sabotaging their own chances. I would say Labor is fairly safe in WA, and I don’t think there is any chance of Qld, Vic, SA going to the Coalition next time up. I don’t know enough about the new guy in Tas to have an opinion.
93 MDMConnell – that’s probably the only real conclusion you can come to.