Northern Territory election live

6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.

6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.

6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.

6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.

6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.

6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.

6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.

6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.

6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.

6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.

6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.

6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.

6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.

6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.

7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.

7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.

7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.

7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.

7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.

7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.

7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.

7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.

7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.

7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.

7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.

7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.

7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.

7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …

7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.

7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.

7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.

7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.

7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.

7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.

8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.

8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.

8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.

8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.

8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.

8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.

8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.

8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.

8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.

8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.

8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.

8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.

8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.

8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.

9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.

9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.

9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

347 comments on “Northern Territory election live”

Comments Page 3 of 7
1 2 3 4 … 7

  2. For the CLP to have gone from 4 to 13 in a 25-seat Assembly in the one election would have been nothing short of miraculous.

    Going from 4 to 11 is quite a good result for the CLP, and puts them in a very competitive position for the next election.

  3. So much for the northern suburbs of Darwin deciding elections.

    Sure, Sanderson was one of the seats to change hands, but the CLP’s comeback was built on three seats around Palmerston and the only three “too close to call” are the three southernmost Darwin seats (Fannie Bay, Port Darwin, Fong Lim).

  6. I’m thinking the guy who put $100,000 on the ALP would be feeling just a touch nervous at the moment. He’ll probably get it back, but it doesn’t look like quite such a smart bet.

    Also, the ALP is coming 4th in Braitling despite having the Donkey Vote. You don’t see that very often.

  7. One of those is Fannie Bay though, and they’re only 40 votes ahead. And the ABC projections are more dicey here than elsewhere – only two or three booths per seat, and a lot of guess work required by Antony to divide them up to calculate post-redistribution margins.

  9. People are underestimating the effect a federal ALP government will have on the state votes ahead. Instead of a (say) 1-1.5%% protest going to the ALP, the protest will now go the other way…in effect shifting perhaps 2-3%.

  10. The Greens ran split tickets in their six seats running. One of those was Port Darwin, where they polled 15.7% and the CLP is on 53.7% 2PP. Maybe the ALP will rue not listening to the Greens on their issues if they lose their majority.

  13. “I would say Labor is fairly safe in WA,”

    Should have a look at the 2nd video clip William put on the Morgan post, nothing is a given in WA.

  15. You might be right there, Peter K.

    One interesting issue arising out of this strong CLP performance is Terry Mills leadership. On the face of it you would have to say he is pretty safe, for now. But will he lead them to the next election?

  18. Antony was saying that in Arafura the ALP need an 11% leakage of preferences from the second CLP candidate and the independent to win. It doesn’t sound as credible, but it could well do the same as Fannie Bay.

    Or even give them a majority if the CLP wins in Arafura and Fannie Bay.

  19. I just think everyone thought that gaining 9 seats was a bridge too far.

    What happens in the betting market if the parliament is hung?

  20. Betting markets tend to pay out on the party who provides the new premier (whether by majority or with the help of independents).

  22. Can’t see Labor losing Arafura.

    It comes down to Fannie Bay, though Fong Lim is still not certain (could be a large absentee vote).

  27. Sorry, so the ABC computer is assuming the IND will preference Labor? But the actual prefs are supposed to be directed to the CLP?

  33. There’s definitely something funny going on. I can’t remember seeing a more one-sided betting race turn out close. The real odds according to the bets placed should be 200 to 1!!

    Bookmakers say Labor is the near unbackable favourite in what has been described as a one-sided contest for the Northern Territory government.

    Centrebet describes it as a tidal wave, with 99.5 per cent of the Territory election money on Labor to win.

    The betting agency has collected close to $250,000 during the campiagn.

    Centrebet’s Neil Evans says it’s telling that punters have wagered less than $1,000 on the Country Liberals.

    ‘Tidal wave of support’ for Labor
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329392.htm

  38. [Why did the ALP knife Clare Martin?]

    That was only part of the problem, as she said on the ABC coverage, it was also the NT Intervention which made her disenchanted with politics in general which influenced her decision to quit.

  40. All booth votes now in in Fannie Bay, Labor by 57, 50.9-49.1 with 66% of enrolled voters tallied. Looks like there must be a few absentees.

  43. Must say Clare Martin always presented as articulate and likeable on the telly, the current bloke comes across as a boofhead – which shouldnt be a disadvantage in the territory?

    What happened – an outbreak of metrosexualism in Darwin?

  45. 130: True. But i don’t think anybody saw this result coming. Everybody was just assuming a comfortable ALP win. Everybody has been caught by suprise.

  47. Diogenes, wasn’t the Vic 1999 election supposed to be a Lib cakewalk according to virtually everyone? Instead Labor made incredible gains on the night, and won govt a month later after the Frankston East by-election. This was a major upset – sometimes upsets do happen against all the odds. It looks like the CLP has fallen just short here.

  48. Ben Raue 95 –

    Why would it begin with the State that is last to go to the polls?

    Answer:

    I think the State and Territory governments (with the exception of Tassie and NSW) probably have one more go left in them. This cycle is what will bring the ALP back from the stratosphere to competitive margins in the States.

    NSW and Tassie are different because you will be having 3rd generation leadership at the next polls.

  49. The CLP has to be ruing the fact that they didn’t have a candidate in Macdonnell – surely it could have been a candidate for a big swing to the CLP…

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 7
1 2 3 4 … 7