ABC Radio reports Alan Carpenter will go to Government House this afternoon to call a Western Australian state election for September 6. More to follow: yet-to-be-revised Buswell-era seat-by-seat election guide here. Hat tip to Zombie Mao.
UPDATE: Rather than do any actual work, I am republishing below the bulk of a post from a few weeks ago which was soon superseded by the Westpoll post. Elsewhere: “analysts” rate the snap election decision a blunder; Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times offers a non-exhaustive list of “seats to watch”; audio from ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy and Curtin University academic David Black; analysis from Tony Barrass of The Australian. The Liberals are off to a good start: John McGrath has quit the front bench, after being contentiously retained by Troy Buswell when the Corruption and Crime Commission found he had been involved in dubious dealings with Brian Burke.
When surveying the electoral landscape, one factor asserts itself with a force that makes all the sniffed chairs, snapped bras, lifted shirts and exposed Prince Alberts pale into insignifiance: the “one-vote one-value” redistribution (that at least is how it’s been marketed, but that’s a subject for another time). Going by the post-redistribution pendulum, you would never know that Labor was currently one seat away from minority government (at least when taking into account the three ex-Labor independents, which the pendulum doesn’t do). This is because the notional margins determined by Antony Green suggest Labor would have won 38 seats rather than 32 if the 2005 election had been held on the new boundaries. In the crude terms of uniform swings, the Liberals will need 51.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to be in contention for minority government (for a swing of 3.6 per cent), and as much as 2 per cent extra if they’re to go all the way.
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Metropolitan
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Country
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| ALP | LNP | IND | Total | ALP | LNP | Total | ||
| 2005 Election | 24 | 8 | 2 | 34 | 8 | 15 | 23 | |
| Redistribution | 32 | 8 | 2 | 42 | 6 | 11 | 17 | |
The creation of eight new seats in the metropolitan area was always going to be good news for Labor, which holds 70 per cent of its seats. Even so, it seems remarkable that all eight have found their way to the Labor column. The Liberals do have the marginal new seat of Scarborough, but elsewhere they lose Serpentine-Jarrahdale as part of an unhelpful carve-up of the outer suburbs. An appreciation of the situation can be gained by breaking the area into six pieces: two zones of Labor and one of Liberal heartland, and three where the election will be decided. These are outlined in the map below (indicated by the black lines: the blue ones are upper house region boundaries), with electorates colour-coded to indicate party margins (ranging in Labor’s case from lightest red for under 2.5 per cent to deep red for over 15 per cent).
Inland outskirts. The luck of the draw has turned two Labor and two Liberal seats into three Labor and one Liberal, but all could go either way. Liberal-held Serpentine-Jarrahdale has been divided among four notionally Labor seats, while Darling Range is mixed with abolished Kenwick in a manner that produces one highly marginal seat (Kalamunda) and one that is relatively safe for Labor (Forrestfield). The new seat of Darling Range owes more to Serpentine-Jarrahdale than the old Darling Range, emerging with a slight notional Labor margin.
Riverside and northern beaches. The all-blue strip along the western beaches now accounts for five Liberal seats instead of four, although Labor would win Scarborough in a good year. The riverside seats of Nedlands, Alfred Cove, South Perth and Bateman (formerly Murdoch) have all maintained their identity. Three of the nine seats in the riverside and northern beaches region are held by conservative independents.
Northern mortgage belt. Further north is the volatile mortgage belt, where the new coastal seat of Ocean Reef has muscled in among four existing electorates. All are Labor or notionally so (Kingsley has been left white on the map as it is a statistical dead heat), but most if not all are likely to shift with the next change of government – as the northern suburbs did in 1983, 1993 and 2001.
Eastern suburbs. The really good news for Labor is that there are now 15 seats in its inner suburban heartland from Girrawheen east to Midland and south to Armadale, including the new seats of Nollamara, West Swan, Cannington and Gosnells. The only cost for them is that safe-ish Yokine (margin of 8.2 per cent) has turned into marginal-ish Mount Lawley (5.8 per cent).
Southern coastal. This safe Labor strip is now accommodated by six seats instead of five, with Kwinana created from the south of Cockburn and the north of Peel (the remainder of which is now called Warnbro).
South-eastern. Southern River and Riverton are joined by Jandakot: all are Labor marginals, the margin in Southern River having been cut from 11.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent.
Then there are the cutbacks in the country, which owing to the “large district allowance” have impacted on conservative areas in the south-west (like I said, a subject for another time). The exception is the effective abolition of the vast Mining and Pastoral region seat of Murchison-Eyre (held by Labor-turned-independent John Bowler) and its replacement with Eyre, which more closely resembles the abolished Liberal-held seat of Roe as it includes Esperance and Ravensthorpe. This has involved the transfer of Esperance and Ravensthorpe from the Agricultural upper house region to Mining and Pastoral, cutting Agricultural’s enrolment from 93,886 to 82,479. Thus truncated, the Agricultural region now has four lower house seats in place of seven. As well as the disappearance of Roe, Liberal-held Moore has essentially absorbed Nationals-held Greenough, while the two Nationals seats of Merredin and Avon have merged into Central Wheatbelt.
The South West region has gone from 11 seats to eight, which can roughly be explained as Leschenault being absorbed by Murray (now Murray-Wellington), Capel being absorbed by Vasse and Collie-Wellington (now Collie-Preston), and Liberal-held Warren-Blackwood merging with Nationals-held Stirling to form Blackwood-Stirling. The remaining development to be noted is the expansion of Bunbury, Albany and Geraldton, each of which has shifted from one party column to the other. Bunbury is the largest of the three cities, such that the Liberal-held seat has been able to expand into Labor-voting southern suburbs which were previously accommodated by Capel. Albany and Geraldton on the other hand are Labor-held seats which have had to expand into surrounding conservative rural territory. However, this does not mean they are going to fall into the Liberals’ lap: Labor’s past lack of campaigning effort in the rural areas means they are stronger here than the margins suggest.
I once tried to edit the Wikipedia page on Oscar Wilde. I tried to add a short story attributed to him that I entitled “Sticky the stick insect gets stuck on a sticky bun.” It was live on the web for about 20 seconds until a wiki-fascist sent me a terse message stating I would be banned. According to this 3 star general, Wikipedia is serious research tool. I used to tell my students the opposite.
Dinsdale, you’re too kind.
LOL @ Gary #99
I’ve got an ALP membership card that would seem to belie any ‘love’ for Barnett, although I do lay out some concerns I have re the current Labor Govt at #75.
Disagree if you like, but I’m hardly engaging in partisan assertion without reasoning.
Frank Calabrese
“moose” … a large furry quadraped, most noted for standing in the cold water, chewing its cud, sporting a whopping great set of antlers.
it appears you have been targetted … be warned …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4s4wejeyS0
One would still expect a swing to the Libs in this election, but it may not translate into seats won, givent he redistribution.
There are signs the mining boom is slowing down, but the problems of labour shortages and expensive housing are still there. I think it’s smart of Carpenter to go to the polls now, and it may lessen the swing he was likely to get against him (unless Buswell had remained leader).
Adam in Canberra – I do like Useless Loop as a place name. My favourite, here in victoria, is Pakenham Upper. Mount Buggery is worth amention too.
In Victoria we also have Tittybong, Upotipotpon and Dondangadale.
Do you know how Useless Loop got its name? It got its name at exactly the same moment that Shark Bay was discovered not to be an inland saltwater lake that a person could walk around.
103 L – fair enough but my question still stands. What’s wrong with the WA government in your opinion?
True story
L,
The fact that Barnett did better in 2005 against Carpenter than other Liberal opposition leaders did against Labor premiers in their first term ignores the clear fact that before the canal debacle, the Coalition were considered firm favourites to win in WA.
After all, the 2005 election took place soon after the Latham implosion and after the post-tsunami bounce for Howard. The Carpenter regime was just as “ineffectual” in its first term as it was in its second.
If Barnett couldn’t seal the deal in 2005 when he had a much stronger base to work from, it’s far from likely that he’s going to win in 2008, particularly given the current situation of the WA Coalition/Liberal party AND the unfavourable redistribution for the Coalition…
Carpenter wasn’t Premier in 2005, it was Gallop
Adam I think you’ll find “Dondangadale” is actually “Dandongadale” unless there is another place with a similar name. I ‘ve been to Dandongadale, not that any of this matters.
#106
I’ll pass that on to the folks at Nar Nar Goon and Koo-Wee-Rup.
“Mount Buggery is worth a mention too.” So you can go to Buggery?
Gary,
Without rehashing my post at #75, I think the Govt has several problems, some political and some policy-related. The last four years have been overall a net negative for Labor in my opinion….
The so-called “truth-in-sentencing” laws have been a political disaster, and the Libs are sure to exploit that. Carpenter admitted as much by promising to re-write them last week. Health has been badly managed, and most major stakeholders are offside with the Minister on the subject of health reform (although I doubt this will be a major issue, in all honesty). Outcomes-based education managed to damage the government in the education area, and while McGowan has now shelved it it certainly tainted Labor in an area of traditional strength.
There is, of course, the rich seam of political gold that is the CCC and its findings – do not underestimate the WA public’s instinctive loathing of the Burke name anywhere near government. For any half-competent political operative the negative campaign is an easy one to run.
But most importantly perhaps – can you name one significant acheivement that Carpenter’s government can claim as their own in the last two years? When the negative fur starts to fly, you need some positve results to fall back on, and I’m not sure that they are there.
Gary, you are right. But have you been to Burrumbuttock?
Swing Lowe,
WA is not a Labor state – at state and federal level they have consistently struggled to get a primary vote above 40%. One vote one value simply makes it slightly easier – it does not gerrymander WA in favour of the ALP. Lose on the 2PP and you will still lose.
And I don;t follow your reasoning….if Barnett would have won in ’05 without the canal, why won’t he win this time, sans that particular policy?
For those who like it straight my Kimberley Community Cabinet video series from April this year may be informative. I reckon it captures Carpenter pretty much as he is.
Gary/Swing Lowe,
I forgot to mention – and how could I – various ministers propositioning staff, drunkenly acting up and accusations of Carpenter himself perving on young female MPs.
It all just chips away.
[But most importantly perhaps – can you name one significant acheivement that Carpenter’s government can claim as their own in the last two years?]
The Perth to Mandurah Railway 🙂
[I forgot to mention – and how could I – various ministers propositioning staff, drunkenly acting up and accusations of Carpenter himself perving on young female MPs.]
Libs won’t dare mention that, considering they’ve got Troy Buswell 🙂
L, obviously you are a Western Australian, I’ve been more fortunate and have been born in and live in Victoria (LOL). So whereas I could tell you what the Brumby government has done I can’t give you anything on Carpenter, hence my questions to you.
Now that I know where you are coming from I’m very interested in your obviously more informed and less biased (than most) view of things.
Don’t you think the Libs will struggle given the less than perfect start though? Wasn’t Barnett favoured to win the 2005 election but lost? People will only vote in an opposition if they feel they can handle government. Surely that is not the feeling over there at the moment.
Am I correct in thinking the Libs need about a 6% swing to win Govt? Is this likely?
This is a state where people have been happy to vote for Burke, Grill, Crichton-Browne, Tuckey, Campbell and Lightfoot. Obviously WA has a high grub-threshold. Carpenter looks like Mother Theresa by contrast.
No Adam but Burrumbuttock sounds like the a…..end of the world.
L,
The point of my last post wasn’t to show how great Labor is doing in WA (it isn’t) – it’s just that Barnett is a loser/idiot. He was granted an opportunity to be the first Liberal to defeat an incumbent Labor government since Borbidge did it in 1996 – and he (single-handedly) managed to stuff it up.
Now he’s supposed to take the Liberals from an even worse position – the redistribution having weakened the Coalition in several seats that it could otherwise have won – and gain 10+ seats out of a 59 seat parliament to win government 2 days after becoming the Opposition leader.
Call me a true believer, but I seriously doubt that a man of Barnett’s abilities (and I mean that in a negative sense given the 2005 fiasco) could accomplish such a feat in less than 30 days…
Adam, at first I thought you meant Ian Campbell.
121 Frank – good point. If the Libs want to get down and dirty it will come back in spades. From what I’ve read Carpenter handled the Burke issue well didn’t he?
[Now he’s supposed to take the Liberals from an even worse position – the redistribution having weakened the Coalition in several seats that it could otherwise have won – and gain 10+ seats out of a 59 seat parliament to win government 2 days after becoming the Opposition leader.]
Plus the fact that the Liberals don’t have the Nationals to give them a leg up with being in a coalition.
[121 Frank – good point. If the Libs want to get down and dirty it will come back in spades. From what I’ve read Carpenter handled the Burke issue well didn’t he?]
Yep, sacked ministers, and forced them like Norm Marlborough to resign from both Parliament and the Party, and of course Labor won the Peel By-election at the the height of the CCC inquiry with an increased majority.
He also forced both Burke and Julian Grill to quit the Party as well. And it’s a bit rich for the Libs to attack the ALP about Burke when Noel Chrichton-Browne actually works for Brian Burke, and is still a Powerbroker for the Libs.
Frank,
Maybe, but it blew out in cost, hasn’t helped congestion on the freeway and recalls to mind the worst of the CFMEU. Not exactly an unqualified success.
Swing Lowe,
Fair point, but I don;t think Barnett was all that bad in ’05. I think he passes the credibility test as Premier, and given that election Oz are usually about who the voters hate least, Carpenter and his Government might have passed Barnett in the loathing stakes.
Incidentally, the Libs may have been favoured in ’05, but I must confess to never buying that. It was simply a Federal hangover from Latham and Co, plus a bit of media noise. Gallop was a good thing from the get-go, I contend.
Gary,
I’m really no expert (and I was born in Mebourne myself 🙂 ) but yes, the Libs will by no means have a rails run here. The start, the turmoil over their last 12 months – and 4 years for that matter – and the economic good times al give them a sizable task.
People generally vote against governments, not for oppositions, and they do that when they feel the Oppostion can handle the job. Now, Barnett, clearly can handle the job (much as I would detest his policy directions). And the Government has given the electorate a good many reasons to vote against it. The question is, in what proportions are those feelings held?
[Maybe, but it blew out in cost, hasn’t helped congestion on the freeway and recalls to mind the worst of the CFMEU. Not exactly an unqualified success.]
That’s because people are so hung up on their cars.
And people vote, Frank.
More to the point, based on the notional seats, Labor needs to lose 9 seats just to lose their majority.
Plus one of those seats could be lost to John D’Orazio, whose supporters would expect him to support a minority ALP government. So that’s ten seats that need to be lost even before Carps starts horse-trading with Janet Woollard and maybe even Brendon Grylls, leader of the Nationals. The Nationals are actually decent chaps in WA.
Nats voters would never wear a coalition with the ALP. Their MPs might be alright, but their voters would revolt and just vote Liberal the next time round, putting the Country Party out of business sharpish.
And you wouldn’t horse trade with Woolard….damn near certifiable. And a pathological Labor hater.
L–this is all well and good, but where are the seats that are going to fall? It isn’t just a matter of votes–there are 59 elections that are going to occur. Assuming the Libs can do a deal with Constable and (holding their noses0 the Nats, they will need to hold 27 seats in the next parliament. Which ones?
ok. make it 26 with woollard in the libs’ column. which ones
L -“People generally vote against governments, not for oppositions” – I agree with this statement but only if they think the opposition are worthy. Iemma is a case in point last election.
“The question is, in what proportions are those feelings held?” Fair enough and we can only wait for polling to come out to assess this.
On a good day I can see the Libs winning from the ALP: Kalamunda, Kingsley, Swan Hills.
Albany and Geraldton are notionally Liberal already, so they’re gone, in my mind. Sorry Shane.
Desperate move by a government in trouble, in my humble opinion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor lost this one.
Why on earth didn’t they sit tight for a little while longer? The Libs are fractured and the longer time they had to disentegrate, the better.
Instead, calling this will give the Libs and ALP equal airtime for the next month and force the government to defend their very unimpressive record.
Bizzare stuff.
L,
To show you how incompetent Barnett was in 2005, in the Newspoll immediately before the election was called, the Coalition was up 49-34 on primaries.
Somehow, by election day, the primaries had changed so much that Labor was up on primaries 42-39. It takes great “skill” to turn a 15 point lead on primaries into a 3 point less in a matter of weeks – a “skill” that only Barnett and few other political leaders have managed to do (the most recent I can remember is Sen. George Allen (R – Virginia) who managed to turn a 20 point lead into a 2 point deficit in 2 weeks in 2006)…
“Why on earth didn’t they sit tight for a little while longer? The Libs are fractured and the longer time they had to disentegrate, the better.”
I’m not so sure about that A-C. They may have been better off than they are now in a few months time, knowing the election was coming and all.
Beg pardon, I meant Darling Range, Kalamunda is notionally Liberal.
On the other hand, the ALP could potentially win Kalamunda, Dawesville and Scarborough and make things interesting in Vasse if they chose not to run a candidate. Wouldn’t mind if we gave Rob “what’s all this then” Johnson a scare in Hillarys, but I don’t think so–not now Buswell is gone.
Hmm, Minor Parties will Benefit from the Election.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/minor-parties-could-be-the-big-winners-20080807-3rk5.html
Ok…as a Labor partisan, I hold concerns for:
– Forrestfield (new seat)
– Ocean Reef
– Wanneroo
– Joondalup
– Kingsley (notionally dead even)
– Collie-Wellington (lot of suppressed anti-Labor feeling up there)
– Albany (ALP just fell over with Green preferences last time)
– Swan Hills (will the retiring ALP member dump a bucket on the Party like she did to Carps re his alleged sexual harassment?)
– Jandakot (local candidate issues)
and I don’t know enough about Darling Range or Bunbury to call them either way.
Tony McRae should be fine in Riverton…so, the Libs/Nats have 21 seats now (notionally) and need 6 of those seast I listed. IO reckon 4 are in grave danger. That doesn;t leave a lot of fat for the ALP.
According to Seven News, The Premier has been to the Governor, and will be holding a Press Conference in an Hour’s Time.
William. I nominate you for sainthood. When I thoght you had “noosed the Moose” 2 days ago you let him have a say again only for him to shoot himself in the head again!!!
As Mr T says “Ahhi piddy tha ffoool”
Not sure why you’re so sanguine about Riverton, L.
Sportingbet’s WA Election markets are up:
Labor: $1.18
Coalition: $4.40
Hm, can the reports be handed doiwn while the Govt is in Caretaker Mode ?
[DAMNING Corruption and Crime Commission reports – on Andrew Mallard and lobbyist Brian Burke – could surface during the WA election campaign.
A spokeswoman for the CCC said today the commission believed it could hand down its reports during the campaign despite both houses of parliament being dissolved during this period.
Reports to be released by the commission included reports on Andrew Mallard as well as an investigation into the lobbyist activities of Brian Burke.
Mr Barnett has accused Mr Carpenter of running scared for calling an early election, saying one of the reasons to go early was to avoid the release of CCC reports. ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142067-948,00.html