It’s September 6

ABC Radio reports Alan Carpenter will go to Government House this afternoon to call a Western Australian state election for September 6. More to follow: yet-to-be-revised Buswell-era seat-by-seat election guide here. Hat tip to Zombie Mao.

UPDATE: Rather than do any actual work, I am republishing below the bulk of a post from a few weeks ago which was soon superseded by the Westpoll post. Elsewhere: “analysts” rate the snap election decision a blunder; Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times offers a non-exhaustive list of “seats to watch”; audio from ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy and Curtin University academic David Black; analysis from Tony Barrass of The Australian. The Liberals are off to a good start: John McGrath has quit the front bench, after being contentiously retained by Troy Buswell when the Corruption and Crime Commission found he had been involved in dubious dealings with Brian Burke.

When surveying the electoral landscape, one factor asserts itself with a force that makes all the sniffed chairs, snapped bras, lifted shirts and exposed Prince Alberts pale into insignifiance: the “one-vote one-value” redistribution (that at least is how it’s been marketed, but that’s a subject for another time). Going by the post-redistribution pendulum, you would never know that Labor was currently one seat away from minority government (at least when taking into account the three ex-Labor independents, which the pendulum doesn’t do). This is because the notional margins determined by Antony Green suggest Labor would have won 38 seats rather than 32 if the 2005 election had been held on the new boundaries. In the crude terms of uniform swings, the Liberals will need 51.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to be in contention for minority government (for a swing of 3.6 per cent), and as much as 2 per cent extra if they’re to go all the way.

Metropolitan
Country
ALP LNP IND Total ALP LNP Total
2005 Election 24 8 2 34 8 15 23
Redistribution 32 8 2 42 6 11 17

The creation of eight new seats in the metropolitan area was always going to be good news for Labor, which holds 70 per cent of its seats. Even so, it seems remarkable that all eight have found their way to the Labor column. The Liberals do have the marginal new seat of Scarborough, but elsewhere they lose Serpentine-Jarrahdale as part of an unhelpful carve-up of the outer suburbs. An appreciation of the situation can be gained by breaking the area into six pieces: two zones of Labor and one of Liberal heartland, and three where the election will be decided. These are outlined in the map below (indicated by the black lines: the blue ones are upper house region boundaries), with electorates colour-coded to indicate party margins (ranging in Labor’s case from lightest red for under 2.5 per cent to deep red for over 15 per cent).

Inland outskirts. The luck of the draw has turned two Labor and two Liberal seats into three Labor and one Liberal, but all could go either way. Liberal-held Serpentine-Jarrahdale has been divided among four notionally Labor seats, while Darling Range is mixed with abolished Kenwick in a manner that produces one highly marginal seat (Kalamunda) and one that is relatively safe for Labor (Forrestfield). The new seat of Darling Range owes more to Serpentine-Jarrahdale than the old Darling Range, emerging with a slight notional Labor margin.

Riverside and northern beaches. The all-blue strip along the western beaches now accounts for five Liberal seats instead of four, although Labor would win Scarborough in a good year. The riverside seats of Nedlands, Alfred Cove, South Perth and Bateman (formerly Murdoch) have all maintained their identity. Three of the nine seats in the riverside and northern beaches region are held by conservative independents.

Northern mortgage belt. Further north is the volatile mortgage belt, where the new coastal seat of Ocean Reef has muscled in among four existing electorates. All are Labor or notionally so (Kingsley has been left white on the map as it is a statistical dead heat), but most if not all are likely to shift with the next change of government – as the northern suburbs did in 1983, 1993 and 2001.

Eastern suburbs. The really good news for Labor is that there are now 15 seats in its inner suburban heartland from Girrawheen east to Midland and south to Armadale, including the new seats of Nollamara, West Swan, Cannington and Gosnells. The only cost for them is that safe-ish Yokine (margin of 8.2 per cent) has turned into marginal-ish Mount Lawley (5.8 per cent).

Southern coastal. This safe Labor strip is now accommodated by six seats instead of five, with Kwinana created from the south of Cockburn and the north of Peel (the remainder of which is now called Warnbro).

South-eastern. Southern River and Riverton are joined by Jandakot: all are Labor marginals, the margin in Southern River having been cut from 11.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent.

Then there are the cutbacks in the country, which owing to the “large district allowance” have impacted on conservative areas in the south-west (like I said, a subject for another time). The exception is the effective abolition of the vast Mining and Pastoral region seat of Murchison-Eyre (held by Labor-turned-independent John Bowler) and its replacement with Eyre, which more closely resembles the abolished Liberal-held seat of Roe as it includes Esperance and Ravensthorpe. This has involved the transfer of Esperance and Ravensthorpe from the Agricultural upper house region to Mining and Pastoral, cutting Agricultural’s enrolment from 93,886 to 82,479. Thus truncated, the Agricultural region now has four lower house seats in place of seven. As well as the disappearance of Roe, Liberal-held Moore has essentially absorbed Nationals-held Greenough, while the two Nationals seats of Merredin and Avon have merged into Central Wheatbelt.

The South West region has gone from 11 seats to eight, which can roughly be explained as Leschenault being absorbed by Murray (now Murray-Wellington), Capel being absorbed by Vasse and Collie-Wellington (now Collie-Preston), and Liberal-held Warren-Blackwood merging with Nationals-held Stirling to form Blackwood-Stirling. The remaining development to be noted is the expansion of Bunbury, Albany and Geraldton, each of which has shifted from one party column to the other. Bunbury is the largest of the three cities, such that the Liberal-held seat has been able to expand into Labor-voting southern suburbs which were previously accommodated by Capel. Albany and Geraldton on the other hand are Labor-held seats which have had to expand into surrounding conservative rural territory. However, this does not mean they are going to fall into the Liberals’ lap: Labor’s past lack of campaigning effort in the rural areas means they are stronger here than the margins suggest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

278 comments on “It’s September 6”

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 … 3 4 5 6

  1. L,

    From my count, the LNP have 19 seats, the ALP have 38 and Ind 2.

    So the LNP need 9 seats to be able to govern with the Independents, 11 if they want to govern by themselves.

    Your list only contains 9 “vulnerable” Labor seats – I doubt that the LNP will sweep the field and take them all…

  2. Frank C @ 150,

    Even if the reports aren’t handed down officially, it’s likely that there will be judicious leaking to “friendly” media organisations if there is anything juicy in the reports…

  4. Swing,

    You’re forgetting the Nats, who will line up with the Coalition when it matters.

    William,

    Given what McRae survived last time, I doubt that he can be moved this time. I think Jandakot, Swan Hills and Forresfield are far more rickety.

  6. The report on the ABC’s PM began: “It was Napoleon who said ‘never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake”. This was apparently meant to refer to the leadership change. Strange call.

  8. Hmm, Colin Hints that the Canal will be the Centrepiece of the Campaign.

    [The State Opposition leader, Colin Barnett, has again suggested he will seek to revive his Kimberley canal plan saying he intends to ‘think big’ on the issue of water policy.

    Mr Barnett says while he wants to attack Labor’s management of the mining boom and the number of government ministers who have been forced to resign, water will be at the centre of his campaign.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/07/2327070.htm

  9. Re Frank at 150, basically a report can be provided to Parliament through a Clerk if Parliament is not sitting – but this isn’t “not sitting” it is dissolved.

    Complex constitutional question but ultimately I think probably is wrong and contrary to spirit, if not letter, of the Caretaker Conventions

  10. [I think Jandakot, Swan Hills and Forresfield are far more rickety.]

    Well Residents of Ellenbrook weren’t impressed by Frank Alban’s suggestion that “They should pay for their own Parks & Gardens, Rather than the City Of Swan”

  13. Liberal partisans might recall that the 1947 Labor defeat in WA, largely unexpected, was the first notable setback for the Chifley govt.Difficult to judge from here but wouldn’t voters regard Barnett as solid?

  17. Wiliam @ 156. I found the quote strange as well, however, without wanting to lurch into another ‘exercise in futility’ discussion of reporting by the ABC, I find much of what and how political matters are reported, at our ABC puzzling at times. A further example being the fate of the lower Murray Darling. I’d be inclined to think that the complexity and novelty of the issues being discussed contribute to how things are reported, but then there’s the Napoleon quote, which just makes you thing WT….?

  19. Story on the Four Marginals which Robert Taylor DIDN’T Mention.

    [LIBERAL polling last week showed that even with Troy Buswell as leader the party would have won the marginal seats of Bunbury and Kalamunda.
    And they would have come within a whisker of winning the Labor-held seats of Albany and the northern suburbs seat of Kingsley.

    Informed sources have told Perthnow that the Liberals polled the four marginals last week and the results showed them a predicted white wash for the conservatives was not on the cards.

    Troy Buswell had decided to stand down on Thursday because his personal approval ratings were well behind those of Colin Barnett who was elected leader of the Opposition yesterday, sources said.

    It’s understood that Bunbury, held by Liberal MP John Castrilli and marginally Labor after a boundary redistribution, would have been won easily by the incumbent who is up against Peter MacFarlane, who stood in the federal seat of Forrest and lost to Nola Marino.

    Normally a good indicator of who will win the election, Bunbury went against the state trend in 2005 and voted Liberal.

    Perthnow understands the Liberals are hoping to at least hang on to their country seats and fight for the marginals in the city.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142595-5017005,00.html

  20. #162

    Upper Swan?

    In Victoria, we’d rather Mount Buffalo.

    (sorry about lowering the tone…it was thinking of troy Buswell that made me do it)

  21. Another interesting factor with an early September election is that it may well coincide with huge speculation of the RBA cutting interest rates by up to half a percent which is more likely to advantage the Government than opposition parties.

  22. In reply to post 145, I think the seat of Riverton is not a safe bet for the ALP. Sitting member Tony McRae’s reputation was severely tarnished after he was dropped from cabinet after his secret links with Mr Burke were revealed.

    In 2005, the how-to-vote card controversy in Riverton probably helped Tony McRae get over the line (although there was still a swing against him) and back in 2001 he was merely in the right place at the right time to gain the seat for the first time for the ALP when Liberal Graeme Kierath was voted out in a landslide after his controversial stint as Industrial Relations minister (and a strong union campaign against him in the seat).

    I think Riverton is naturally a fairly safe Liberal seat and with swing to the opposition and a decent Liberal local candidate in Riverton it should return to the Liberal column.

  24. Henderson & Carpenter, the would be Mugabes of Australian politics. With elections now only every 4 years, surely they could allow people a decent choice. Henderson went a year early for absolutely no reason and allowed 17 days with two electorates having their choice abolished altogether. Now Carpenter goes one better and effectively allows just two, using the olympics to avoid scrutiny. If they were in Africa, who knows what they’d try…

  28. [173 Peter K – I want what you’re on.]

    I’m waiting for Rob Johnston to be reappointed Shadow Police & Justice Spokesperson – be prepared for some weird solutions to Law & Order :_)

  31. Ahh, dammit. Now I have to go and get my details changed at the AEC… then again, maybe I won’t bother. They think I’m still living in Armadale, so I’ll give McTiernan some love for the railway instead of re-electing Eric Ripper with my Greens preferences.

    My view on the election: this is the state which gave the Liberals two shiny new federal seats while they got a good old-fashioned thumping over east, and they’ve got rid of Buswell, so it won’t be a whitewash. Barnett seems like a bit of a plodder, but out of all ex-ministers in the Court govt he’s one of the more likeable ones. Compare to Kierath or Shave, for example. I wouldn’t bet on them winning, though… according to the pendulum, Labor have to lose 9 seats they (at least notionally) hold, mostly in the Perth metro area, and then the Libs / Nats / independents all have to work together. I can’t see that happening.

    If the Nats get 4 or 5 seats and end up with balance of power, I wouldn’t immediately say they’d go for the Libs, or that country voters would destroy them if they did anything else… Karlene Maywald in SA is a Nat minister in an ALP govt, and the voters in her seat don’t seem to mind. As long as Grylls / Waldron / Redman / whoever else gets elected act as a strong, independent voice for rural interests (ain’t that their job anyway?), it shouldn’t hurt them. They’ve stuck close to the Libs in NSW and Qld, and all it’s got them is a lot of rural independents (off topic just briefly, carn Rob Oakeshott), taking their place. Who knows, a minority ALP govt might make Grylls a minister.

    135 L: What’s so bad about Janet Woollard?

  33. Help me! Help me!

    I am entrapped in a household which has links to the world only via the Advertiser and whatever rubbish can be heard on local ragio.

    It is far too much for me, comfort from the bludgers would be welcome, pleeease.

  35. Forgive me if this is a tad pedestrian but how is it possible that nigh on the first word to pass Barnett’s lips after getting the nod is “canal”? Is it supposed to be a get out in front of it early/elephant in the room tactic? Surely that won’t work…

  36. Peter K

    #173
    “Henderson & Carpenter, the would be Mugabes of Australian politics. With elections now only every 4 years, surely they could allow people a decent choice. Henderson went a year early for absolutely no reason and allowed 17 days with two electorates having their choice abolished altogether. Now Carpenter goes one better and effectively allows just two, using the olympics to avoid scrutiny”

    Clearly you think Labor will win by going at this convenient to Labor time So what ? fixed term elections ? or just unappy consevative ?

    “the would be Mugabes of Australian politics”
    Would not wish that if i was you , those Mugabe types do not like consevatives at all

  38. [Has Barnett got a preselection yet?]

    Not officially by the party, despite Deidre Willmont “Withdrawing for the good of the Party”

  39. Robert Taylor in The West reports the latest Labor polling is “thought to give Labor a nice buffer over the Liberals”, while the Liberal polling that convinced Buswell to go showed Barnett was less recognised than Matt Birney. Elsewhere in the paper, Amanda Banks reports Deidre Willmot “will likely have to put her political career on the backburner”, although she might yet run in a seat where they don’t have a candidate – i.e. one they are unlikely to win (Tom, to answer your question, she has stepped aside from Cottesloe so yes, Barnett has preselection).

  40. [while the Liberal polling that convinced Buswell to go showed Barnett was less recognised than Matt Birney.]

    Hmm, so much for Van Onselen’s statement about Barnett having a recognition factor amongst voters.

    And I wonder how the First time Voters will vote, considering they were in Year 9 when the last Election was held ?

  44. William, from your Morley Page:

    [ D’Orazio was not granted the waiver required for preselection contestants who had not been members of the party for the previous 12 months, instead throwing his considerable local weight behind Bayswater mayor Lou Magro. The Premier had other ideas, announcing his backing of Channel Seven state political reporter Reece Whitby in April. This raised the ire of the now marginalised New Right, whose ministers (Michelle Roberts, John Kobelke and Margaret Quirk) voted against the state executive decision to give Whitby the preselection waiver which D’Orazio had been denied. Whitby went on to defeat Magro for preselection, and D’Orazio announced he would contest the seat as an independent.]

    Magro wasn’t defeated, he withdrew his nomination at the 11th hour, though it was probably too late to cancel the ballot.

  47. That Facebook page is one of the most idiotic things I’ve ver seen in campaign material!

    Protect WA’s booming economy from…?

    Free advertising to the other guys you think?

    Have the Liberal strategists bet everything they own on a Labor landslide so they’re deliberately throwing the game?

  48. [Have the Liberal strategists bet everything they own on a Labor landslide so they’re deliberately throwing the game?]

    It seems the creator of that Facebook page was a former candidate for Balcatta for the 2005 election.

    [KAREN PERCY: With just one day to go until West Australians decide who will govern them comes news of a newcomer to the race – a woman who gained national notoriety during the last federal election campaign.

    Melinda Poor was accused of being a Liberal Party plant when she infamously called Perth talk-back radio in September to challenge the ALP’s Family Tax Policy. Back then she said the policy would make her family $1800 dollars a year worse off.

    Ms Poor disputes she was put up to it by the Liberals, saying her membership of the party had lapsed at that stage. Now she’s a fully financial member, and tomorrow she’ll contest the seat of Balcatta in northern Perth as the Liberal candidate.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1311014.htm

  49. 197: That facebook group wouldn’t be an offical one created by the party. Like most facebook groups, it would be just one created by a supporter.

  50. Labor has to lose a state election sooner or later! They are vulnerable in WA, I’m only basing this on their poor performance(in that state) in last year’s Federal Election.
    But, the Liberals have stuffed up their own chances, and I doubt resurrecting Barnett will get them over the line!
    So, because of the recent redistribution(that favours Labor) and a booming economy, I’ll tip a narrow Labor victory!

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 … 3 4 5 6