It’s September 6

ABC Radio reports Alan Carpenter will go to Government House this afternoon to call a Western Australian state election for September 6. More to follow: yet-to-be-revised Buswell-era seat-by-seat election guide here. Hat tip to Zombie Mao.

UPDATE: Rather than do any actual work, I am republishing below the bulk of a post from a few weeks ago which was soon superseded by the Westpoll post. Elsewhere: “analysts” rate the snap election decision a blunder; Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times offers a non-exhaustive list of “seats to watch”; audio from ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy and Curtin University academic David Black; analysis from Tony Barrass of The Australian. The Liberals are off to a good start: John McGrath has quit the front bench, after being contentiously retained by Troy Buswell when the Corruption and Crime Commission found he had been involved in dubious dealings with Brian Burke.

When surveying the electoral landscape, one factor asserts itself with a force that makes all the sniffed chairs, snapped bras, lifted shirts and exposed Prince Alberts pale into insignifiance: the “one-vote one-value” redistribution (that at least is how it’s been marketed, but that’s a subject for another time). Going by the post-redistribution pendulum, you would never know that Labor was currently one seat away from minority government (at least when taking into account the three ex-Labor independents, which the pendulum doesn’t do). This is because the notional margins determined by Antony Green suggest Labor would have won 38 seats rather than 32 if the 2005 election had been held on the new boundaries. In the crude terms of uniform swings, the Liberals will need 51.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to be in contention for minority government (for a swing of 3.6 per cent), and as much as 2 per cent extra if they’re to go all the way.

Metropolitan
Country
ALP LNP IND Total ALP LNP Total
2005 Election 24 8 2 34 8 15 23
Redistribution 32 8 2 42 6 11 17

The creation of eight new seats in the metropolitan area was always going to be good news for Labor, which holds 70 per cent of its seats. Even so, it seems remarkable that all eight have found their way to the Labor column. The Liberals do have the marginal new seat of Scarborough, but elsewhere they lose Serpentine-Jarrahdale as part of an unhelpful carve-up of the outer suburbs. An appreciation of the situation can be gained by breaking the area into six pieces: two zones of Labor and one of Liberal heartland, and three where the election will be decided. These are outlined in the map below (indicated by the black lines: the blue ones are upper house region boundaries), with electorates colour-coded to indicate party margins (ranging in Labor’s case from lightest red for under 2.5 per cent to deep red for over 15 per cent).

Inland outskirts. The luck of the draw has turned two Labor and two Liberal seats into three Labor and one Liberal, but all could go either way. Liberal-held Serpentine-Jarrahdale has been divided among four notionally Labor seats, while Darling Range is mixed with abolished Kenwick in a manner that produces one highly marginal seat (Kalamunda) and one that is relatively safe for Labor (Forrestfield). The new seat of Darling Range owes more to Serpentine-Jarrahdale than the old Darling Range, emerging with a slight notional Labor margin.

Riverside and northern beaches. The all-blue strip along the western beaches now accounts for five Liberal seats instead of four, although Labor would win Scarborough in a good year. The riverside seats of Nedlands, Alfred Cove, South Perth and Bateman (formerly Murdoch) have all maintained their identity. Three of the nine seats in the riverside and northern beaches region are held by conservative independents.

Northern mortgage belt. Further north is the volatile mortgage belt, where the new coastal seat of Ocean Reef has muscled in among four existing electorates. All are Labor or notionally so (Kingsley has been left white on the map as it is a statistical dead heat), but most if not all are likely to shift with the next change of government – as the northern suburbs did in 1983, 1993 and 2001.

Eastern suburbs. The really good news for Labor is that there are now 15 seats in its inner suburban heartland from Girrawheen east to Midland and south to Armadale, including the new seats of Nollamara, West Swan, Cannington and Gosnells. The only cost for them is that safe-ish Yokine (margin of 8.2 per cent) has turned into marginal-ish Mount Lawley (5.8 per cent).

Southern coastal. This safe Labor strip is now accommodated by six seats instead of five, with Kwinana created from the south of Cockburn and the north of Peel (the remainder of which is now called Warnbro).

South-eastern. Southern River and Riverton are joined by Jandakot: all are Labor marginals, the margin in Southern River having been cut from 11.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent.

Then there are the cutbacks in the country, which owing to the “large district allowance” have impacted on conservative areas in the south-west (like I said, a subject for another time). The exception is the effective abolition of the vast Mining and Pastoral region seat of Murchison-Eyre (held by Labor-turned-independent John Bowler) and its replacement with Eyre, which more closely resembles the abolished Liberal-held seat of Roe as it includes Esperance and Ravensthorpe. This has involved the transfer of Esperance and Ravensthorpe from the Agricultural upper house region to Mining and Pastoral, cutting Agricultural’s enrolment from 93,886 to 82,479. Thus truncated, the Agricultural region now has four lower house seats in place of seven. As well as the disappearance of Roe, Liberal-held Moore has essentially absorbed Nationals-held Greenough, while the two Nationals seats of Merredin and Avon have merged into Central Wheatbelt.

The South West region has gone from 11 seats to eight, which can roughly be explained as Leschenault being absorbed by Murray (now Murray-Wellington), Capel being absorbed by Vasse and Collie-Wellington (now Collie-Preston), and Liberal-held Warren-Blackwood merging with Nationals-held Stirling to form Blackwood-Stirling. The remaining development to be noted is the expansion of Bunbury, Albany and Geraldton, each of which has shifted from one party column to the other. Bunbury is the largest of the three cities, such that the Liberal-held seat has been able to expand into Labor-voting southern suburbs which were previously accommodated by Capel. Albany and Geraldton on the other hand are Labor-held seats which have had to expand into surrounding conservative rural territory. However, this does not mean they are going to fall into the Liberals’ lap: Labor’s past lack of campaigning effort in the rural areas means they are stronger here than the margins suggest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

278 comments on “It’s September 6”

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  1. That is the good thinkg about Carps calling the election now. The Liberals have the O/Games Coverage to sort themselves out. Elections are always decided in the last week. Silly move Al.

  2. Labor very short at 1.2 with Lasserters.(betting to 107%)

    This site usually lists a range of betting shops. Only one today for the WA election, the others are probably re-setting their markets.

    http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election

    These are the markets for Lib Leader at next election, Costello favourite at 1.8 Turnbull 2.2 Nelson 3.5.

    They are betting to 147%, which is very fat.

    http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20967/20968/44979/Liberal+Party+Leader+at+the+Next+Federal+Election

  3. The odd thing is that those analysts say that Carpenter has called the election before Barnett can settle in but yet it is a bad move. I would have thought it is a smart move. Why let your opponent settle in?

  4. Ok William Bowe. I know you are just waiting to ban me for offensive behavior as conservatives are not welcome at Pollbludger.

  5. [The odd thing is that those analysts say that Carpenter has called the election before Barnett can settle in but yet it is a bad move. I would have thought it is a smart move. Why let your opponent settle in?]

    Precisely, plus the fact that the ALP has TV ads already booked in means that will run from tonight, while the Libs will have to shoot new ads with Colin Barnett, which won’t be ready for at least 48 hours.

  6. [plus the fact that the ALP has TV ads already booked in means that will run from tonight, ]

    That should read “that they will be run from tonight”.

  7. Unfortunately Adam, “nyah nyah” is in the eye of the beholder. John McGrath’s resignation is good news for the Liberals: his presence loomed as a big obstacle to their campaign on the Brian Burke issue.

  8. 59 Moose – I don’t recall saying that. I’ll say it again it’s your ATTITUDE not your POLITICS that gets you into trouble. There are conservative supporters who blog here and they’re not banned by William.

  9. [John McGrath’s resignation is good news for the Liberals: his presence loomed as a big obstacle to their campaign on the Brian Burke issue.]

    Yes, but there is still the issue of Troy Buswell meeting with Noel Chrichton-Browne in the Parliamentry Carpark to deal with. 🙂

  10. [Now there is an analyst/journalist that knows what he is talking about.]

    Yep, Peter Kennedy is one of the most astute observers of West Australian Politics. In regards to Peter Van Onsrlen, it’s pretty much well known that he was a former staffer for a WA Liberal Senator, so he’s a bit clouded in his judgement 🙂 David Black & Dr Harry Phillips are pretty much straight down the line, though I’m surprised by their comments.

    http://www.mwf.com.au/2007/content/standard.asp?name=OnselenP

  11. Lot of talk today about how clever this move is. Yes, the Olympics will gobble up media oxygen, but I’m not so sure it is actually all that clever. Most swinging voters make up their mind in the last 10 days of a campaign anyway, so the Libs will still have their advertising plus a campaign launch and debate performance ready by then.

    As for not leting Barnett settle in, thats only a problem for unfamiliar leaders. Barnett has been Opposition Leader for four years, and was a miniser four 8 befor that, so I think the public is comfortable with him, and feels that he is at least a known quantity.

    Finally, Barnett has been bagged as hopeless by some on this site, but his perfomance against a first-term Labor Government in ’05 was by far the best of any Liberal Opposition in the same situation since ’95. Compare Carr, Rann, Martin, Beattie and Brack’s re-election returns to Gallop’s.

    The ad campaign writes itself for the Libs, with footage of Burkie and Labor ministers emerging from the CCC, interspersed with newspaper clippings, WA Inc references and foreboding voiceovers. I predict a tagline like “Labor – Don’t Let it Happen Again” or “Vote LIberal – WA Deserves Better”.

    Carpenter is not particularly popular, and Labor hasn’t acheive sod-all in their 2 terms so far. Add to that a tanking housing market whihc the Libs could easily (politically) tie to Ripper’s stamp duty policies, and I think this one will be very, very close.

  12. William Bowe, can we please have a definition of “trolling”? Or is it politically incorrect to have to define a term of abuse that you are hurling at someone who disagrres with you?

  13. They haven’t acheived anything at all…what would make you think I’m fence-sitting on that one?

    Let me be clear – this has been a government of very little policy direction.

  14. [William Bowe, can we please have a definition of “trolling”? Or is it politically incorrect to have to define a term of abuse that you are hurling at someone who disagrres with you?]

    Please refer to the link I posted in post 67 🙂

  15. I’m reading Peter VO’s new book now.

    Dull and obvious? It’s nauseating. I picked it off the shelf in a book shop and had to restrain myself from committing criminal damage. Why are all books about liberal PMs such deluded hagiography. I’d read a decent book about Howard–he was a significant figure in our history, for better or worse.

  16. L, you wrote “Labor hasn’t achieved sod-all”. Sod-all means nothing, so you wrote “Labor hasn’t achieved nothing,” which is to say that have achieved something. What you meant to write was “Labor has achieved sod-all.”

  17. Incidentally, PVO is no Liberal hack…if you don’t like his writing that’s one thing, but considering the mauling he gave Barnett last State electio I doubt he’s some sot of right-wing plant.

  18. [I did not ask you Frankie Pepperoni]

    Ahh, resorting to abuse, when specifically requested by William to cease doing so.

    As I said, the mark of a coward.

  19. Gary,

    To quote myself, “…I think this one will be very, very close.” So, no, I won’t be putting the house on anything, except Jim Furyl to win the US PGA.

    But Barnett has a very, very good chance.

  20. I miss Glen…this Moose person is not up to the job. Longing for those irascible outbursts in German.

    Wo ist Wenck?

  21. I think citing a online opinion poll with no merit should be a banable offence on this site… seriously its a site about polling.. THINK.

  22. Trolling is when a freedom-loving patriot comes to a far left-wing blogging site in order to start arguments, or vice-versa. For future reference, the one hard-and-fast rule around here is that quarreling about moderation is not permitted. I don’t guarantee more than one warning on this.

  23. “I think this one will be very, very close” – L. What’s this based on other than a love for Barnett and his crew?

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