Morgan: 55-45

Morgan has released another poll just five days after the last, from a face-to-face survey of 1067 voters conducted last weekend. The agency’s figures had previously been holding out in the pre-budget Rudd honeymoon zone, but they have now come down to earth with a drop from 60-40 to 55-45. This has partly been driven by a drop in the Greens vote to 7.5 per cent from an anomalous 11.5 per cent last time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

486 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  2. BB@251 – Just read your bit – cracked up laughing because yesterday same thing happened here. Husband turns into lunatic when he has either chain saw or pruning things in his hands. Maybe you heard me yelling from here.
    Yeah – the shade has gone from the hydrangeas and he was in big trouble. Today he is lovable, i.e until he brings out the b…. things again!! No sympathy from me BB, sorry.
    Did anyone hear comment from Cassidy this a.m. – words to the effect ‘but it all hangs on what the msm will do with the ETS thing’ – so that means the Murdoch press will hang it if they want the Libs back in 2010.
    Also KerryAnne Walsh doesn’t think that this country can handle the big picture ideas – so they shouldn’t ever be brought up apparently. She obviously has never sat in on a business meeting where one is told to bring up a big idea and then, if accepted, darn well go out and make it happen. The MSM mob make my blood curdle. Thank goodness for sites like this.

  3. What the Insiders panel seems to forget to mention is that polls after polls the punters want something to be done now and regardless of the others do. The punters are well infront of the MSM and the Libs on CC.

    Anyway, if you want to punish China, make sure you are prepared to pay $300 for a DVD player, rather than the ridiculous $50 as now.

  4. Still waiting for the anti-gg chief populist correspondent to acknowledge that he got it wrong on the state of cohesion within the opposition cf CC response. Turns out that Nelson dropped the 180 degree do nothing switcheroo on Turnbull yesterday morning. Turnbull had sort of tested the numbers but hasn’t got them for sure. Too close. Fortunately there is no cohesion problem for the Gunt who on Insiders today said that he has excellent verbal intercourse with Blindeye practically every day. But,hang on, therefore he surely must have known that the switcheroo was on the table? So, if Nelson is not having excellent verbal intercourse with Turnbull, why didn’t the Gunt let Turnbull know the switcheroo was on in order to stop him looking like a goose when his most recent policy pronouncement on the topic turns into a dead duck? Looking forward to the next anti-gg front pager on the topic: ‘Opposition in massive backflip rejects Howard’s radical CC policy.’
    Meanwhile, back in Williwillinot land the smirkometer is really ticking over.

  9. “Go the Borg”??????

    Yep, tidlewave of support on the back of that phrase for sure.

    An advertising blitz.. perhaps along the lines of “Once upon a time there were two parties that were useless…”

  13. Oh… or did you mean the comment JK made equating gay men to paedophiles… ??(i’ll opt for that explanation for now).
    What a fckwit that man is- beyondblue needs to get rid of him NOW.

  14. Lawrence Springborg bears an uncanny resemblance to Kevin Andrews in the photo linked in 308.
    Perhaps they are cloning themselves so there are enough of them left to fill the vacancies.

  15. Jen,

    The scary man on Gilligans Isalnd has reposted his standard “we’ll all be rooned” rant. Check this out for the equivalent of “a Bex, a cuppa tea and a good lie down”.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/business/27every.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

    KR has his health issues which may explain his mournfulness, but my favourite Monty Python moment is “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1loyjm4SOa0

  16. Grinch – I have made it my policy not to discuss that Other Election on this thread as it just causes so much grief and angst (for me!).
    However it gladdens my heart to see that you are in fact an optimist.
    My favourite MP sketch is from Meaning of life – ‘Every Sperm is Sacred’, being a catholic girl and all…;)

  19. FINNS

    whats ESJ doing then , being a witch doctor , sending smoke signals not that i’d accuse ESJ of being a stirrer gentleman and all

  20. Ron,Finns

    Still LMAO , the showy ouburst has all the hallmarks of a Raelian convention with the chief loon, Charlie himself delivering the sermon. I guess after the rant the metaphorical executions will start on the island.

  21. I was kind of hoping I’d seen the last of the quarreling between particular individuals from the old US threads. Those individuals are free to come on here and argue with each other about Australian politics, but anything else is off-topic.

  22. Unusually for me, I’ve got a genuine psephological question.

    In SA, there is a big decision to be made about a new hospital vs a new entertainment/sports stadium. In short, Labor wants a new hospital (the Marjorie Jackson-Nelson Hospital FFS). The Libs have said they will renovate the Royal Adelaide Hospital and build a multi-purpose stadium where the new hospital would have been.

    The Libs are making it a the centrepiece of why we should vote for them next election and trying to make the next election into a “referendum” on the issue. Public opinion seems to be in favour of the Libs plan ATM.

    There is a Labor document which includes a plan for a “popular vote” before the next election on the issue. That way, Rann can change his policy assuming the vote goes that way, saying we are going with what the people want and thereby taking the wind out of the Libs sails. It sounds like a very smart piece of politics.

    My question is how do you perform the popular vote? It’s not a referendum, more a plebiscite (?). Could they perform it online, by phone-in or by mail ballot to avoid a very costly polling booth vote? Is there a precedent for it?

  25. Diogenoski
    #300
    “No-one is doubting Sir Kevin’s commitment to addressing CC. The friendly suggestions relate to his methods”

    There hav been 3 specific methods put here , with posters specifically naming a Politicans (Keating by a few posters and Obama specifically by 2 posters) I responded to those posters Keating committed to ratifying Kyoto , Obama does not support ratifying Kyoto , Rudd ratified Kyoto Then Keating had proven CC policy substanse (signed IPCC convention) and was a macro policy man with ‘left’ economics to CC , Obama has no proven CC substanse at all & has a howard type economic philosohy to CC , Rudd has CC substanse like Keating but unlike Keating is a ‘left’ micro not ‘left’ macro economic man Keating would hav attacked the anti CC clan ferously with a broad macro substanse plan , Obama talks sweet nothings of nothing because there is no substanse , Rudd blandly explains a micro substanse plan and puts in the detailed ETS ‘process’ to achieve it

    Of th three , Keating was magnificent for his times But for CC a Keating would not work The ETS is a tax to on all business’s effectiveley and all voters with NO full $ offset , so if Keating came out swinging now with ETS in any detail , BEFORE the ETS detail is worked out , Keating would get trapped by the Libs on whose th “winners & whose losers” , like Hewson did over his “GST cake” Politicaly Labor & CC would then get reely undermined with scares to the potential “losers’voters For CC an Obama is a disaster because he’s not committed to CC , so his pretty words are bullsh.t We aussies don’t need to be sold by a snake oil salesman on CC , we Aussies are already converts , we want solutions , not words Now we come to Sir Kevin , his beaucrat micro approach suits bedding down ETS as the tax will hit EVERY part of the economy and hit us all

    It is frustrating because in the interim of this submissions process , the anti CC clan are getting free hits at CC & Sir Kevin , that’s politicl life Sure I’d like the ron super solar farms , but that Garnaut didn’t cost or schedule one Hope its in the White Paper

    As for ETS the point is the World leaders all decided on ETS , a cap & trade as an economic solution to CC to prevent the World economy going busters in phasing out dirty enegy The reality is Australia is part of a global economy , we cann’t pull out of it unless we want a depresion So Sir Kevin is forsed to have ETS as well , and there’s no economic choice Perhaps the solar farms can be an add on Sir Kevin dull ? , could not care less , I just want CC results because the kids of tomorrow can not fight CO2 with prety words

  26. Ronster

    While a cap and trade ETS is inevitable, Oz is the second (?) worst polluter in the world per capita. To reduce our emissions to acceptable targets, our ETS would have to be more drastic than other countries. If there was more of a focus and investment in alternative sources of energy (renewable, nuclear etc), there would be less concern about the effect the ETS would have on the economy.

  28. Diogenes @ 322 –

    My question is how do you perform the popular vote? It’s not a referendum, more a plebiscite (?). Could they perform it online, by phone-in or by mail ballot to avoid a very costly polling booth vote? Is there a precedent for it?</i.

    Don’t know about a precedent at either state or federal level. I doubt it.

    On-line would probably disfranchise far too many people, especially the elderly who are the group most affected by the hospital question, and phone-ins would require a lot of workers. But local government elections have been mostly by mail for yonks and apparently it’s relatively cheap.

    As to the question, I was a patient in the RAH during the hottest week of 2006 and the air conditioning pretty much gave up the ghost early on the first day of the heatwave. The staff did their best but most of my fellow patients were old blokes who’d just had bypasses and/or valve replacements and some were really struggling with the heat. Fortunately?, lung lobectomies being about the most painful thing anyone can endure, I was on so much fentanyl that I was beyond caring.

    IMHO, the sooner they bulldoze the joint the better. It’s old, tired and way beyond its use-by-date! Not sure the proposed site is the right one, but there are probably not many alternatives with the same transport options.

  30. Diogenoski & Jen

    I reckon there are at least 5 diferent levels one can addrsss CC on , which i’ve tried to talk about , so being a bit of an idelistic barbarian hav to be careful which 5 spears to throw

    The World ? on total emissions , India , China ,Russia & the US each emit more in 1 year than we do in 10 The World had a chance with Kyoto , everyone but the US & some little russian republic has ratified it It expires 2012 when India China & Russia current siganories (but presently zero targets) would hav been FORSED to negotiate future targets for the same reaon every other country has been forsed to ie. the politcl pressure of having to accept the Kyoto’s IPCC 400 top scientists climate scenarios India China & Russia selfishly would like to get out of Kyoto targets but can not presently The US selfishly for itself via there 2 Pres candidates both not suppotrting ratifing of Kyoto , have given India China & Russia the way out of Kyoto as well , ie by joining a US alternitive to Kyoto proposal group of emitting countries This competitar of Kyoto group of selfish India China Rusia & the US will work under NO Kyoto IPPCC top 400 scientists pressure at all They will make selfish econamic decisions for there own countrys at the expense of CC Now you can blame all 4 collectively & I do , but the selfish US 2 Pres candidates hav opened the door for there own selfish politcl motives , and st.ff CC

    Europe is the 3rd biggest econ block in the world , they are committed to Tyoto
    hav enormous CC programs operating & so far are on track for there 8% Kyoto emmissions 2012 target Canda & Japan likewise ar working hard , but i fear CC progress world wide has now big problems , you can start blaming the US greed & its plastic pollies so please do not give me ‘inspirational words ‘ , no policy committment action of suport ratification before Kyoto becomjes another UN sham

    So to ‘oz’ , Sir Kevin knows we ar going to get ripped off econamicaly if we go too quick , and specificaly by your yes we can mans CC policy for th US AND by China via our commmodity exports Neither of these 2 vcountries are our econamic friends So Sir Kevin knows all this but has been forsed to take on ETS like all other countries hav BUT Sir Kevin will hav emmission targets post 2012 despite what the other selfish countries do

    Boring Kev ? compared to the selfish rogues of politcians of US China India Russia I call him the Sir action man , he is doing like the EU whilst the big 4 posture selfishley We hav an CC action plan now The RET scheme on R E details should be out Feb , legislation is planned approx June 2089 & ETS commmencement is planned July 2010

    The ron solar farms /equivalent Hope they are in the White Paper , we need the replacement enegy Infrastructure to phase out dirty coal ,as carbon capture techno may not get developed After i see the White Paper and the RET details then lets see , but maybe pu in some subs Its frustrating because the anti CC people ar critising and its a big ‘process’ job to set up ETS the devil of ETS will be in the detail

  31. MayoFeral

    I think the new site is great (it’s directly opposite my private rooms). The name sucks but the idea is OK. My info is that the Marj is dead in the water.

    ruawake

    There are plans to bulldoze the residential block and part of one wing and build on there. There’s enough spare room in the other wing to shift the patients while the new wing is built. It’s a bit half-baked and almost as expensive as a completely new hospital.

    But the public seem to want a new stadium instead.

  33. Ronster

    While you have the Big Selfish Four as you put it (India, China, Russia & the US) who are clearly never going to do the right thing, it’s a very easy argument for the anti-CC brigade, led by the MSM and the Libs, to say;

    “The vast majority of CO2 emissions come from these four countries. Why should Australia take an economic hit and reduce its standard of living when what we do won’t make a difference without India, China, Russia & the US. They will continue to live it up and pollute away and we’ll be the suckers.”

    I don’t agree with this argument but the MSM and Libs are going to bleat it ad nauseum. It appeals to voters sense of lack of fairness and selfishness. It’s going to be a wonderful battle to watch, assuming the Libs go down that track this week.

    Pass the popcorn!

  35. 333 “It’s going to be a wonderful battle to watch, assuming the Libs go down that track this week.”

    That will be the track as every other option has been discarded. It is the same track Beasley went down with the GST and will be just as effective politically.

    Taking the easy option will stop them from being proactive and developing policy for the simple reason that there is no need for them to do so until after the rest of the world does. Springborg has been using this tactic for years and has no policy to show for decades of sitting around waiting.

    It is the track that leads to decades of opposition but always seems so easy at the time.

  36. The great innovation of the Howard/Cossie government was to broaden a tax to include all goods (with the exception of purchases on shares) with one flat rate and include all services.

    You run one great big propaganda campaign, such as saying; you tax goods so why not services, Australia is all grown up now and like the rest of the world can have a GST, and that lol prices will fall.

    If there is one thing you can bet on, an ETS will not be as inflationary as the GST and will be far more beneficial to the economy in the long term. Unfortunately for the coalition the voters know it.

  37. What about the consequences of our relationship with the US if Labor won the election they yelled?

    So here is Condi coming over to hang roung with Smith? Ooh I could see something in the eyes?

    Bad luck Dolly, Stephen is better lookin’ than ya LOL.

  38. There were more people (approx 85%) against the GST before it was passed and applied in 2000, then there are in favour of doing something re CC even ETS.

  40. ron @ 330 –

    India China & Russia selfishly

    Sorry, Ron, but I take issue with calling India and China selfish on this issue, and I’m not even sure about Russia.

    More than 50% of Indian homes that have no electricity and the only transport is shanks pony, push bikes or public busses/trains. The only fossil fuel they might use is a little kerosene for lighting and cooking. It’s little better in China where most homes still only have one or two lights and, maybe, a small CRT TV that uses little power. Russians are better off, but only marginally so. As a rule of thumb, Russians use a quarter of the energy Americans do (which itself is slightly less than Aussies), China a quarter of the Russian figure and the average Indian about half what a Chinese does.

    Nor are they the ones who’ve created the problem, though they are now adding to it. How much of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere was put there by us rich westerners? 90%? 95%?

    So just who is being selfish here?

    They are as entitled to have what we have. When we reduce our consumption per head to their level then we can start pointing fingers, not before!

    An interesting statistic. Japan heeded the lesson of the 1970s oil shock and set out to reduce energy use as much as possible. As a result they only half as much energy per unit of production as Americans/us yet their standard of living hasn’t suffered, indeed it has increased substantially.

    And while my bloods up, the next time Rudd starts banging on about poor countries reducing fuel subsidies I hope someone plants a size 12 boot up his arse. In many of these countries the poorest of the poor use kero for lighting and cooking because it’s all they can afford/get. Up fuel prices and they will be the ones that bear the impact, not those rich enough to have a moped, much less a car. As a diplomat who’s worked in some of them he really should know better!!!!

  41. MF

    As a burns surgeon, I should point out that huge numbers of people with kerosene stoves get horribly burnt.

    And with all the investment in biofuels, there isn’t any food left for them to cook anymore so population control seems to be the West’s policy towards the problem of CC in the third world.

    Although, they seems to be doing a pretty good job of it themselves. India has just had SEVENTEEN blasts in one hour.
    Deadly blasts strike Indian city
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7527004.stm

  42. There is no shortage of actual food. Just a shortage of money to buy the food. Plus not all biofuels are madfe from food.

  43. BSF 342

    Isn’t the problem that the land used to produce human food is now used for biofuel production of the sugar-rich (beet, cane) or oil-rich (palm, soy) plants, which may or may not also be a kind of food?

    So overall, the amount of human produced for the human market is less, driving up prices, ie the food vs fuel debate which is so controversial at the moment.

    Also biofuel production is very water intensive, leading to a lack of fresh water in some areas.

  44. Whoops!

    That should be “food produced for the human market” rather than “human produced for the human market”. It’s that bloody book I just read on cannibalism…

  46. Diogenes- you are absolutely correct. Biofuels sound great in theory but the rate of deforestation and using land for fuel crops rather than food is a dreadful outcome. We neeed to get a lot smarter about how we do this.

  48. Centre

    Centre
    “The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government was to broaden a tax to include all goods (with the exception of purchases on shares) with one flat rate and include all services.”

    NO , it was income redistribution to the upper rich end The bottom end taxpayer got $15 tax cut per week & the top end $110 per week Tell me how is that fair

    NO , it was asset redistribution to the rich end A $30,000 Holden had 30% sales tax $10,000 vs only 10% GST $3000 for GST A $200,000 Massarti had 30% sales tax sales tax $67,000 vs only 10% GST $20,000

    The GST added 10% to every product & service , average people spend money on and was a net negative to all of them There was the no offseting benifit in infrastrucure , schools , hospitals etc In fact , Howard later brought in 3 more tax cuts & all skewed to the upper end , incl last 2007 3 billion worth that Ruddy dustbined

    I’ll tell you what “The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government ” was , it was how to waste the net $ difference of 10 years worth of the terms of trade between Hawke/Keating last deade vs Howard /Cossie first decade ie $400 BILLION for zero benefit
    The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government

  49. Thanks Grog- phew!
    Thought I had scored another combatant…and I get so tired 😀
    Having lived with Kennett in my face for such a long time and had one of the happiest political moments of my life, (watching him get tipped out- restored my faith in democracy), ), I can never feel anything but nausea when i hear his voice and see that hair. I keep waiting for him to put his hand up for the Feds again…although he possibly an improvement on the current lot, which says a lot.

  50. MayoFeral

    The big 4 ar selfish India China & th US will not stay in Kyoto for there selfish econamic reasons and by 2015 they will be the Worlds THREE biggest poluters

    The argument they ar poor , so give them a free pass is not on , that guarantees CC rises above the 2% to 3% current levels That is unacceptable because the IPPCC say 2% to 3% is the irreversable tippoing point In fact the IPPCC say there’s a 50% chance without reductions temperatures will exceed 4%

    What WAS negotiable under Kyoto , was some dispensation for less developed countries who had contributed less to th existing CO2 up there India & China ar not happy with that now whether they are bluffing we may never know because they will not offer any “deal”

    On other hand the most selfish country on earth the US wants India & China to be treated equally from day one WITH th US on targets , for delfish US econamic competitive reasons The US damn well knows that is an unacceptble position for India & China to accept

    So between the 3 , they are st.ffing up Kyoto & targets , and Russia ar offering zero also

    I reckon all 4 ar selfish , but the degree of selfishness can be varied….but it does not help CC solutions , it makes it almost impossible unless within Kyoto , and none of the 4 want to be within Kyoto and unde rthe IPCC scientists pressure of scenariios to address

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