Westpoll: Barnett Liberal landslide in WA

The West Australian, which has been gunning hard for the removal of Troy Buswell from the Liberal leadership for the past week, has published a “snap” Westpoll survey of 400 votes showing the Liberals would lead 57-43 on two-party preferred if Colin Barnett was leader. It also finds they would be in front even with Buswell at the helm, but only by 51-49. One normally likes to exercise caution in interpreting poll results, but I think it can be stated with confidence that the latter finding is definitely wrong. This means we can either dismiss the poll as rubbish and pay it no further mind, or take the view that the six-point difference says something enormously significant about the Liberal leadership even if it does come from a dud sample. Excitingly, the paper reports that the election “could be called as early as tomorrow”.

UPDATE: Click here for a timely trip down memory lane, back to a month before the 2005 election.

UPDATE 2: The following questions are not meant to indicate a conspiratorial mindset: they are merely questions that have sprung to my mind, as questions sometimes do.

• What do the dashes following “don’t know” indicate? That all but a statistically insignificant number of respondents did know, or that those who didn’t have been excluded from the calculation?

• Why would you lump “informal” together with “other”, rather than with “don’t know”?

• Given that this has been done, we can ascertain that the “others” vote is less than 4 per cent under Buswell, or less than 2 per cent under Barnett. This compares with 11.2 per cent at the 2005 election and between 8 per cent and 12 per cent in the past six Newspoll surveys. The Greens vote at least is in the ballpark of the 2005 election, down only from 7.6 per cent to 7 per cent (The West Australian rarely provides figures for the Greens, but on the four occasions it has done so in the previous year they have been between 8 per cent and 11 per cent). In the current political environment, would we really expect the combined major party vote to have shot from 81.2 per cent at the election to either 88 per cent (under Buswell) or 89 per cent (under Barnett)? The two Newspoll surveys this year have had it at 80 per cent and 76 per cent.

• Shouldn’t we expect the 7 per cent of respondents who would vote Coalition under Barnett but not Buswell to be largely parking their votes with minor parties or independents, rather than going straight for Labor?

UPDATE 3 (28/7/08): Robert Taylor in The West Australian:

Troy Buswell will not step side and Colin Barnett will not challenge for the Liberal leadership despite overwhelming evidence that the Cottesloe MP is the party’s best chance of defeating Alan Carpenter’s Labor Government at the coming election. Mr Barnett again made it clear yesteday that he was availbale to lead the Liberals despite having already announced his retirement at the next election. But Mr Buswell was adamant that no one had asked him to step down in favour of the former Opposition leader and he intended continuing in the role. And Mr Buswell received strong support from Liberal Party president Barry Court, who clutched a Bible as he said the chair-sniffing, bra-snapping Opposition Leader had shown strength to push through his problems and was beginning to have an impact on the Government in the polls.

UPDATE 4 (29/7/08): Peter Kennedy reports on ABC TV news that “Labor strategists have put a plan to the Premier” for an election on September 13 or September 20, thereby preventing the resumption of parliament in two weeks.

UPDATE 5 (4/8/08): Buswell quits.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

232 comments on “Westpoll: Barnett Liberal landslide in WA”

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  1. Hey Buster, one man’s Boondocks is another man’s backyard…

    It makes perfect sense to me. And while I can walk there, you can catch the train, infrastructure kindly supplied courtesy of you friendly local Labor Government.

    Last I heard, emergency treatment wasn’t reserved for fatcats and fatheads from the Western Suburbs with unwarranted superiority complexes.

    As for the CCC report, the Liberals and their hangers on have more to fear from it than anyone left in the Labor Party, who have shown a determination to exterminate their rats, not harbour, nuture and protect them.

  2. hmmmm

    I’m no lib supporter. Well derr.

    Still, WA Labor ain’t exactly loved. All Colin needs to do is go through the motions. Unlike Elmer and Sniff, I reckon Colin has learned from his mistakes

    This will get interesting.

  3. I haven’t been following WA politics very closely (ie, at all) this year, but a quick look at William’s pendulum suggests that the Libs need a two-party swing of about 5% across the board to win the necessary 11 seats. Given that they’ve been behaving like complete idiots ever since the last election, does anyone with better local knowledge that me really think this is possible? Carpenter may not be loved, but nor was Iemma and he was easily re-elected because the voters didn’t accept that there was a credible alternative.

  4. [haven’t been following WA politics very closely (ie, at all) this year, but a quick look at William’s pendulum suggests that the Libs need a two-party swing of about 5% across the board to win the necessary 11 seats. Given that they’ve been behaving like complete idiots ever since the last election, does anyone with better local knowledge that me really think this is possible?]

    Well for a start there is no coalition, which means the libs and nats will be running candidates against each other in rural seats.

    Secondly there is One vote, One value, which means less rural seats 🙂

    Also, Barnett hasn’t ruled out staying a full term if he loses the election.

    Finally there is still of the Canal making a comeback.

  5. [Unlike Elmer and Sniff, I reckon Colin has learned from his mistakes]

    Maybe, but he still has the baggage from The Canal, plus the fact he more or less lied to his electorate about retiring, plus the fact he hasn’t given a commitment to serving a full term representing the electors of Cottesloe if he doesn’t win.

    And with Buswell on the Front Bench, the ALP can campaign on this fact and mention that a Vote for Colin Barnett is really a vote for Troy Buswell.

    And regarding the CCC, the govt can claim they dealt with troublemakers by forcing them out of office and the Party, while the Libs protected and rewarded them, vis a vis John McGrath, and to a lesser extent Buswell.

  6. I’m not sure the lack of a coalition makes as much difference as Frank thinks. All the affected seats are very safe for the conservatives, so the only plus for Labor is the diversion of Liberal resources. With regard to Adam’s NSW analogy, WA is a very different place. Labor has topped 40 per cent on the primary vote only once at a state or federal election since 1987, barely managing it in 2005. It’s NSW in reverse: other things being equal the Liberals will win, and they’re up against an eight-year-old government. Carpenter’s unpopularity is not their problem – the last Newspoll had his approval rating at 53 per cent, which was unusually low for him, against 32 per cent for Morris Iemma. Eleven seats and 5 per cent is certainly a big hurdle, but I don’t think it’s undoable. Labor should rue the missed opportunity of calling the election last week.

  7. Adam, the Liberals have the advantage of an enthusiastic claque within the WA press, be it the West Australian (stand alone Neocons), the Sunday Times (Murdoch – say no more), ABC (still stacked with Liberal sycophants), or the various beholden tv networks.

    Add to this a naturally conservative electorate (hear the banjos?), a Government too straight laced and honest to use the benefits of incumbency to it’s advantage, and the fact that it has served (let’s be honest) two competent but uninspiring terms, and you have the unlikely possibility, but the possibility nevertheless,that a bland latter day failure like Barnett, leading a disperate band of incompetent political thugs, might gather enough impetus to fall over the line.

    I’ve lived in this state too long, and suffered the stupidity of it’s electorate too often, to doubt it.

  8. [Adam, the Liberals have the advantage of an enthusiastic claque within the WA press, be it the West Australian (stand alone Neocons), the Sunday Times (Murdoch – say no more), ABC (still stacked with Liberal sycophants), or the various beholden tv networks.]

    You forgot to add 6PR, with it’s populist announcers like Howard Sattler and Simon Beaumont, plus the Excercable Millsy & Tony Mac, who potray themselves as the Refined Gentleman and the Yobbo.

    But basically Fulvio, you’ve summed up the General Situation perfectly 🙂

  9. William says that “other things being equal the Liberals will win” WA elections, but in fact Labor has won five of the last seven, which suggests that all other things are not equal very often. My view of state elections is that Labor is now the default party: if the economy is reasonably healthy, there is no major scandal, and Labor has a more popular leader than the Libs do, Labor will win. The press is anti-Labor everywhere but it doesn’t seem to make much difference to election results.

  10. Yeah, bugger off, William. you bring us bad luck!

    Seriously Adam, I hope you are right in your assessment, and your statistics would seem to indicate that.

    My view was the opposite. I thought that Labor here was the party of last resort, to be turned to when things couldn’t possibly get any worse, and to be discarded like a holey sock when Labor turned things around.

    We’ll see, as that’s the point we’re now at. Labor has sorted out the Liberal’s mess. we’ll now see how grateful the electorate is prepared to be.

  11. [We’ll see, as that’s the point we’re now at. Labor has sorted out the Liberal’s mess. we’ll now see how grateful the electorate is prepared to be.]

    Not very if you read the comments on Perthnow and the listeners of 6PR.

  12. [Adam, the Liberals have the advantage of an enthusiastic claque within the WA press, be it the West Australian (stand alone Neocons)]

    Fulvio, I note that The West have suffered a drop in circulation, so maybe it will be a bit harder for them to campaign for the Libs 🙂

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/06/2326193.htm

    BTW, what’s the bet that Pattersons are working the phones tonight in readiness for a Westpoll on saturday 🙂

  13. When has the West NOT campaigned for the Libs? Has it prevented Labor from winning five out of seven elections? No. As I frequently said during last year’s federal election, when everyone here was in hysterics about The Australian, the chattering classes (that’s us) VASTLY over-rate the importance of the media, and particularly newspapers, in deciding who wins elections.

  14. Your point about five out of seven elections is true enough, Adam, but one of those wins (1989) was achieved with 47.8 per cent of the 2PP vote and another (2001) with 37.2 per cent of the primary vote and a possibly decisive avalanche of preferences from apathetic One Nation voters. And why stop at seven? Seven of the eight previous elections were won by the Coalition. That makes only four fair-and-square wins for Labor out of 15.

  15. Robert Taylor on Liberal polling in The West:

    Inside State believes that the polling had the Liberals winning in four marginal seats polled. In the litmus seat of Bunbury, held for the Liberals by former mayor John Castrilli, the Liberals are believed to have recorded a whopping 60-40 two-party preferred result.

    Presumably this was if Barnett was leader, as otherwise Buswell wouldn’t have gone. I also presume these four seats were the only ones polled, and that there weren’t others where they were behind, but the wording leaves room for doubt on this point (he didn’t say the four seats polled).

    The West also reports Constable has “agreed to join forces with the Liberals at the next election”, but has ruled out joining the party. However, there doesn’t seem to be any meat on these bones beyond the fact that she will be “involved with the campaign”. That she would support a minority Liberal government was never in doubt. The report quotes Constable speculating on the possibility of her joining cabinet and citing the Karlene Maywald precedent, but there’s not much to the story unless she gets a concrete offer.

    As for Deidre Willmott, Carine is “shaping up as one of the most likely options”. Perhaps the existing candidate Tony Krsticevic could be given the North Metro upper house seat instead.

  16. [Inside State believes that the polling had the Liberals winning in four marginal seats polled. In the litmus seat of Bunbury, held for the Liberals by former mayor John Castrilli, the Liberals are believed to have recorded a whopping 60-40 two-party preferred result.]

    Hmm, I wonder if Swan Hills was one of the other 4 marginals polled, which would add weight to the parachuting of Barnett into the seat if Deidre refused to budge ?

    [The West also reports Constable has “agreed to join forces with the Liberals at the next election”, but has ruled out joining the party. However, there doesn’t seem to be any meat on these bones beyond the fact that she will be “involved with the campaign”. That she would support a minority Liberal government was never in doubt. The report quotes Constable speculating on the possibility of her joining cabinet and citing the Karlene Maywald precedent, but there’s not much to the story unless she gets a concrete offer.]

    Liz has always said she’d support a Minority Liberal Govt, it was even speculated she would at the last election as well.

    So basically there is nothing new to report from Robert Taylor then ? 🙂

  17. This is going to backfire when Noel Chrichton-Browne. John McGrath & Anthony Fels are mentioned in response 🙂

    [LABOR’S dark past with Brian Burke and its economic management will be the centrepiece of new Liberal leader Colin Barnett’s bid to oust the Carpenter Government at the West Australian election, tipped for October.

    Mr Barnett was unanimously elected yesterday to lead the Liberals out of the turmoil generated by Troy Buswell, who resigned on Monday.

    Laying out his battle plan, the new leader said the election would be about good government. “In the past four years, five Labor ministers have been either sacked or stood down,” he said.

    Three of those ministers lost their jobs over links to Mr Burke and his business partner Julian Grill.

    “How could we really in Western Australia consider re-electing for another four years a government where one-third of the members of cabinet had to stand down? They were ministers. They had executive power, they had control over the finances of the state.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24140133-5006789,00.html

  18. “Mr Barnett said the canal plans had “probably been too much, too quickly, for people to absorb.”
    But he indicated they were still firmly on his agenda.
    “In WA we happen to have one of the world’s greatest water resources, and we should use that for the state,” he said.”

    Barnett needs to start thinking on a national scale, not just WA.

    A canal from the Kimberleys through Alice Springs down to the Murray. Could then float barges laden with goods from the Alice down to Adelaide and Melbourne, save on transport costs, solve the Murray water crisis, bring water to the Gippsland basin,across to NSW. Cubby can also keep their water.

    He needs to get the lib leaders in SA, Vic, NSW, QLD and federally on board.

  19. @214 and 220

    Why not take the largest possible sample? The first Western Australian election which was clearly a two-sided contest between Liberal and Labor was in 1905. If we start the count with that one, we have a total of thirty-two elections, and each side has won sixteen.

  20. Dr Adam

    I always felt, growing up in WA, that it was a very Liberal state, but J-D is right in that it has had periods of conservative and ALP governments, whether we consider the last Court govt as an interregnum or as a return to previous pattern might help. When Richard Court was in things seemed to turn back to the bad old days of old style Liberal govt of “if it moves, shoot it; if it doesn’t, mine it”, but Gallop was a genuine change. I disliked Burke because he was, frankly, dishonest and corrupt, but still, much good also came from his government. Gallop steadied the ship, was a good premier, and allowed significant developments to go ahead but not at the expense of communities. Carpenter appears to be in the same mould, if a tad more conservative.

    WA would then appear to be an inherently conservative state (which is not necessarily Liberal). The odd policy mix of One Nation seemed to do well, linked as it was to protectionism and conservatism, and the ALP in WA has also seemed to be centre-right govt. The issue for the Liberals is that they really haven’t had a lot of places to go, policy-wise, to differentiate themselves. Barnett’s canal was an attempt to provide a radical policy solution to break this nexus, but was a VERY dumb idea. But this shouldn’t mean that Barnett, portrayed as a safe pair of hands, middle-of-the-road kinda guy wont get up this time either. The redistribution works against him this time, but in future could well deliver a Liberal govt not reliant on the Nats.

  21. Heard from a friend that someone was trying to poll swan hills last night. Friend to lazy to listen to questions – told them to sod off. Will be interesting if it ever comes out.

  22. Considering both major parties till do not have a full list of candidates yet…

    IT’S OOOOOOOOOON

    Carps definitely scared of Cuddly Colin

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