Morgan: 55-45

Morgan has released another poll just five days after the last, from a face-to-face survey of 1067 voters conducted last weekend. The agency’s figures had previously been holding out in the pre-budget Rudd honeymoon zone, but they have now come down to earth with a drop from 60-40 to 55-45. This has partly been driven by a drop in the Greens vote to 7.5 per cent from an anomalous 11.5 per cent last time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

486 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. Diogenes Says: [Finns – Every time I see Penny Wong I’m reminded of Ruddock and Reith] – Diog, try as you may. Two Whites will never make a Wong. The Times that They are a changin’. They were wong before in the WAP days and they are still wong today.

    WAP = White Australia Policy

  2. I think that we can put these Morgan figures down to another week when the banks are madly sending out letters advising of more non-Reserve Bank interest rate hikes. We’ve just got our fourth letter for the week – it all gets a bit much after a while.

  3. Taking into account Morgan’s pro Labor bias, will Newspoll next week show the result as 51-49?
    I’m not surprised about the narrowing! Fairly or unfairly, Rudd is copping the blame for petrol and grocery price rises/increased cost of living! And most people don’t understand an ETS, making them susceptible to Nelson’s scare campaign.

  4. Wouldnt it be ironic if what we are seeing is:

    1) Continuation of Labor rule at the State level; and
    2) Aberration of Labor Government at the Federal level which will end in the gotterdamerung of a world recession and a renewed Federal Liberal government in 2 years?

  6. ESJ, It would not only be ironic, but wrong as well.

    The “one term Rudd government” is like that song from Sound Of Music

    When the dog bits, when the bee stings,
    When I’m feeling bad,
    I simply remember my favourite things,
    And then I don’t feel… so… bad.”

    The dog has bitten, the bee has stung, and the Liberals are feeling bad. So they cheer themselves up with this “one term” guff.

    The longer they put off reform of their own party arrangements, the longer they will be in Opposition. They’re toying around with the leadership and their policies as if nothing bad has happened (like they’re out of office everywhere in, the country, they’re 10 points behind in the polls, their leader is well below 20% as Preferred Prime Minister, and next week they’re about to come close to a split as the climate change troglodytes take on the slight less troglodytic menyana brigade)… and all they have to do is think of their favourite fairy story.

  7. Then again, the federal government does not seem to be successfully neutering the Liberals like what has been acheived at a state level. The federal Liberals still get media coverage and even land blows on their counterparts.

  9. Diogenoski

    your #464 today

    Now the other nite you red herringed the super solar grid with suggesting fission nuclar enegy as alternative Earlier today to detail my super solar grid it was ball bearing being droped by terrorists , and later today aliens speed of light enegy
    Now nuclar fusion cheked that out , yes minimal meltdown potential compard to nuclar fission reactors , produces no long-term radioactive waste , just mainly helium & nuclar bombs need fission nuclar (already exists) not for nuclar bombs but 20 years away per the international thermonuclar experimental reactor project from cost comapts By that tim asuper solar grid will hav been moved to space ! as a solar satellite grid for poor peoples to use in the world as well & be even more enegy efficent

    Next the ball bearings from Mars , the solar defense shield will protect the farms , eveytime we come out front door idealists of lingos will not be governed by terorists Anyway Horatio’s Hornets will guard the skies of super solar grid farms Aliens enegy ? that’s how they go here , with solar power at th speed of light

    An existing US scintific super solar plan will supply 74% of ALL US enegy needs , there cost converted to ‘oz’ prorata to populaton is thanks mayo , is 28 billion for 74% of all oz enegy needs (& at 2050 levels !) Now add 10% budgett risk makes 31 billion Sir Kevin and Penny lane may constructively look at this in the official submisions for the White Paper as an add on to ETS , so climb on board realistic solar optimism , the pessimssm of the rodent days ar gone , in disgrace

  10. Frankly, I’m amazed Rudd is still ahead, considering the bad economic situation and a largely hostile/pro Liberal Party media working against him.
    It makes you think that if the Liberals had a halfway decent leader, they’d probably be ahead in the polls, not 10 points behind.
    Sorry to say the petrol thing is hurting Labor badly, and I’m not sure that Fuelwatch will help them at all!

  12. I’d agree with those sentiments Progressive.

    The Feds have bet the bank on ETS and our federal bureaucracy has an appalling record on implementing new policy.

    A change of leader 12 months out could make the polls very competitive indeed.

  13. “A change of leader 12 months out could make the polls very competitive indeed.”

    ESJ are you proposing Tanner or Emerson?

  14. WTF is going on here. Condi on a private visit on the invite of Smithy to Perth. Half of Perth CBD was closed down for her and she met Smithy’s parents and daughter. i think this is taking the intimate relationship with the great satan a bit too far.

    [FOREIGN Minister Stephen Smith has taken Condoleezza Rice to his daughter’s school and for coffee with his parents in Perth today]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24075987-601,00.html

  17. Well, the Queensland Liberals will be left with Stevens from Robina and Flegg from Moggill after the dust has settled on the weekend six Liberals have defected to the Pineapple Party.

  20. 10 Progressive – I disagree with the notion petrol is hurting Labor. I believe that is the one item where people understand that it is not within the governments realm to do anything of any significance. When you constantly hear of world oil prices increasing and the effects it is having on other countries, you don’t need to be a Rhode scholar to come to this realisation.

    I ask the question I asked on a previous thread though, did we really believe the last Morgan Poll? This is just in line with the others. I think it is too early to be spooked. Hell, judging by these polls so far if there were an election today, even with all the troubles we’re having, Labor would be returned. Did you really think the polls would remain in the stratosphere?

  21. 15 Ruawake, I am stumped as to what will happen to the likes of McFarlane and Dutton if they join the unofficial Pineapple Party.

    Will they be welcome in the Party room of the Liberals in Canberra? Or do they just stir up trouble as Pineapple Party members in Brisbane and revert to Liberals in Canberra?

    Surely the Draft Constitution of the Pineapple Party isn’t worth the paper it is written on without Federal Liberal Party endorsement.

  23. For all of the “Mr Unelectable” pounding Nelson has copped in the media this year, i think it’s actually to his credit that the Liberals federally are still sort-of competitive (although remeber it’s still 55-45 here). I agree he’s hardly a vote-magnet, and could well be levered aside 12 months out from the election, but he must be doing alot of internal stuff to keep the party from completely splintering apart. When you look at the laughable rabble the Liberals are in Qld and WA, you begin to think Nelson is doing something right.

  24. If the Pineapple stuff pans out like it seems to be it will have Federal implications.

    There will be no more coaltion in Qld. No more joint Senate ticket. 3 cornered contests. The Libs financial base will be gone.

    If you were to write a script on how to damage your brand you could not have imagined a worse scenario than we are seeing in Qld at the moment. 🙂

    On Morgan does anyone seriously believe that 4% of voters switched from The Greens to the Fibs in a week?

  25. The ALP are getting done on ETS, why would anyone support a scheme that is untested, and a roundabout way of reducing Carbon Emmisions. It would be much better to go straight to the heart of the problem and start spending money on alternative energy and research. The punter would love it and Carbon industry would hate it. Ramp up subsidies on gas conversions etc, again a real saving and more local jobs. Piss off fuel watch, people hate watching things that are painful.

    Now to the LIBS, our local lot are a micro-example of the national scene. The local bunch of multi-generational inbreds have not won any election for over 10 years, they get flogged, they can’t even get a grip on the local council, they own a little local rag and all they can do is with incredible bias trot out thier favourites and tell everyone how they will solve the problem. They then get flogged at the next election and they stand around their ‘Mens only club” and either blame each other or the ABC. Pathetic, but the best part is the level of thier own delusion. They are so Boltish, they think they win the debate, even thought they have no grasp on even basic logic, they then convince themselves that they have won. They get flogged again and they simply cannot see that they are completely out of touch. Its quite remarkable.

    Re this poll, it is bad for Rudd he needs to step back from the ETS, its a disaster.

  29. A masterstroke substituting Brandis for McFarlane, we haven’t seen anything like this since Bold Personality was substituted for Fine Cotton.

  30. #27

    Concerned about the mighty talents of Peter Slipper or Andrew Laming challenging for the leadership, perhaps? (or…maybe not)

    I doubt anyone could make the Queensland Liberals more of an unelectable joke than they are now

  31. #28

    Looks like all the serious political junkies jumped ship to Insiders and all the frothy morning-show brigade bailed to Sunday Sunrise…….

  32. “Re this poll, it is bad for Rudd he needs to step back from the ETS, its a disaster.”
    So now you want to give credit to a Morgan Poll. This poll, if you want to give it any credit, suggests Labor still holds a clear advantage. That’s bad for Labor? Hardly.

  33. “I doubt anyone could make the Queensland Liberals more of an unelectable joke than they are now”

    30 MDMC, Just watch Springborg in action tomorrow.

  34. “Seems there is a vacuum of belief at the heart of Federal Labor.” Sounds impressive ESJ but what does it mean?

  35. Is there anything they actually believe in GB?

    Presumably if they believed in CC & the ETS they’d be selling a cure greater than the limp pain free solution there selling in neo Churchillian tones.

  36. Good call ESJ at 4. The anti-gg has set out the blueprint to make it all come true.
    Matthew Franklin who passes for what the anti-gg calls its chief political correspondent has some stern words of advice for the Opposition in today’s edition. To sum up:
    1. labour is spinning when it says that there is a split in the opposition on climate change. (If so, today must be a good day for the opposition. I would have thought there is a split inside Nelson, let alone between the the various careerist cliques within the libs. And then again we have the nats, some of whom have gone back to saying what they have been thinking all along, ie that CC is only a silly theory anyway, that the drought is normal but that farmers should be subsidised to survive it, and that those city folk wouldn’t know if their pants were on fire. Well, Matthew, good, insightful Correspondent work. Fancy everyone except the anti-GG being dudded by labour spin on the cohesive state of CC response/ETS policy within the Opposition!)
    2. Franklin’s advice is that the opposition should wait and see what the government does and then do something different that is a bit more palatable and get re-elected. Unlike with ESJ, Franklin’s article is irony free. Battle speeches and irony do not mix.
    3. Franklin says the Opposition should do a policy fudge because Rudd is ‘terrified’ that that is what the opposition will do.
    I would rate Franklin 0/10 for stating the opposition is unified on CC. It ain’t and it is obvious that it ain’t. It is highly likely that the leadership struggle will play out in terms of climate change positions. There are always going to be CC believers and non-believers in the opposition and there will always be sectoral, industry and rural/city tensions within the opposition about appropriate responses. When positions on these tensions become identified with leaders and aspirants, watch out. Those batons will come out a’clickin’ and a’clacking out of the knapsacks.
    I would give Franklin 10 out of 10 for populist politics – well done.
    I would give him about 0 out of 10 for policy credibility. Good policy process has gone out the window in order to get the 10 out of 10 above – dunce’s cap on that one Franklin, I’m afraid.
    I guess the anti-gg really does think we will all be hanrahaned unless we do nothing about climate change.

  37. “Seems there is a vacuum of belief at the heart of Federal Labor.”

    GB I think it means that his predicted imminent implosion of NSW Labor has failed to materialise and the Queensland situation is too painful to watch so a strawman has been built as a diversion.

  38. 14
    The Finnigans Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
    WTF is going on here. Condi on a private visit on the invite of Smithy to Perth. Half of Perth CBD was closed down for her and she met Smithy’s parents and daughter. i think this is taking the intimate relationship with the great satan a bit too far.

    [FOREIGN Minister Stephen Smith has taken Condoleezza Rice to his daughter’s school and for coffee with his parents in Perth today]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24075987-601,00.html

    Glad I’m not the only one who thinks like this Finns. It’s more like a date than a diplomatic visit.

    Creepy!

  39. LOl steve,

    No feel quite pain free thank you.

    On NSW, I stand to be corrected – the piping shrike thesis may prove right. But the ultimate logic of that is that the States will stay Labor and the Feds will flip.

    Unsworth coming out this week and calling for a new Labor Unity faction suggests however the Labor split in NSW still has a way to goes.

  41. The lawyers are in the Queensland Supreme Court arguing that the meeting last night was unconstitutional and trying to overturn the decision of the Liberal Party State Council.

  42. Bob Santamaria 25 Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
    “The ALP are getting done on ETS, why would anyone support a scheme that is untested, and a roundabout way of reducing Carbon Emmisions. It would be much better to go straight to the heart of the problem and start spending money on alternative energy and research”

    Bob , sir Kevin has comitted to go with ETS , which is a worldwide based economic model solution to carbon reductons Whilst i’m skeptical of ETS , I’m hopeful from the submissions pre the White Paper , that an alternitive enegy infrastructure plan is added on ETS is a difficult elephant to explain & sell to punters

  44. Can anyone explain why Morgan polls are believed to favour Labor? This is often asserted in posts. Is it true, or is it just another self-perpetuating myth? What sort of a pollster deliberately favours one side or the other? Or is it an inadvertent favouring? If so, shouldn’t the methodology be checked? Wouldn’t a pollster of Morgan’s experience check and recheck his methodology, especially when a 60/40 TPP turns up as it did last time? Does anyone (except Morgan) really believe such extreme figures are accurately representative of public opinion when other polls are so different?

    A TPP of 55/45 is in line with other recent polls. Possums Pollytics PollyTrack has the Morgan/Neilsen/Newspoll average at 55/45.

    The change in Morgan from last week may be significant, but attributing it to anything identifiable (such as the climate change debate) is problematic and probably fanciful. Let’s see what turns up next week.

  45. Apparently six Federal Liberal members claim to have legal advice that if they turn up at the conference tomorrow with 250 delegates they can overturn the decision from last night.

  46. ESJ – you seem to have made up your mind even before the white paper appears. The Green Paper isn’t set in concrete but I’m guessing you knew that anyway.

  49. ESJ – let me see if I can get my head around your reasoning. In your mind Labor have produced a dog in fuelwatch (first brought in by a state Liberal government I believe). So that means whatever other idea they come out with it mustn’t be good. I suppose the Libs have struggled since Workchoices to come up with anything good then. That was a dog. What simplistic thinking.

  50. Ad astra , i find Morgan usualy with a labor bias & newspoll the othr way , try to pretend Gary’s analytical comments are invisible

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