Morgan: 55-45

Morgan has released another poll just five days after the last, from a face-to-face survey of 1067 voters conducted last weekend. The agency’s figures had previously been holding out in the pre-budget Rudd honeymoon zone, but they have now come down to earth with a drop from 60-40 to 55-45. This has partly been driven by a drop in the Greens vote to 7.5 per cent from an anomalous 11.5 per cent last time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

486 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. Amigo FINNS
    “FOREIGN Minister Stephen Smith has taken Condoleezza Rice to his daughter’s school and for coffee with his parents in Perth today”

    For mine i’m harsh on Smithy , its a disgrace taking the Major of the Repugs around to see yor kid & there school & then have tea with ma & pa , you save that stuff for a like ‘left’ leader like Tony Blair All Condi deserved was tea in th VIP’s cafeteria like any othr non ‘left’ Foreign minister

  2. GB,

    No, fuelwatch is indicative of the frame of mind of the government – smoke and mirrors cause no offence etc etc. For those of us from NSW its indicative of Carr style government – all spin and no substance. And yes the approach in one policy area can be predictive in other areas such as the government ETS approach.

    Just because a former liberal government did it doesnt mean anything either way a dog is still a dog irrespective if the pooch is black or white.

  7. Ad Astra

    Remembering back to last year’s polls, Morgan seems to consistantly poll Labor as around 2% higher than Newspoll or Neilsen, so the bias is real. I doubt it’s deliberate – based on his public comments, I’d surmise that Gary Morgan is a Coalition supporter. It seems to be an artifact of methodology.

    One theory that gets thrown around a bit is that Morgan face-to-face polls under-sample rural and regional voters (who are more likely to vote coalition). I can’t recall whether the Morgan phone polls also show the consistent bias.

  8. I study at UWA, live near the airport and have to commute through the CBD to get between the two. So with all the security around for her getting in the way, I’m bit grumpier than usual today. Green light corridor? Feh, she should have to put up with the traffic on Great Eastern Hwy like everyone else has to.

    Also, nice to see Stephen Smith has so much faith in the education revolution he sends his kid to a snooty private school. At least he’s better than Downer was…

  9. ESJ

    It may allow consumers to make informed decisions as to where they buy petrol and keep the price stable for 24hrs.

    Surely this is a good thing?

    The only data we have on petrol prices is from Informed Sources and it is in their interest to see Fuelwatch abandoned.

    Why did it take a court order from the ACCC to make IS data available? Why are the major oil comapnies against it?

  11. Channel 9 axing Sunday: what will Laurie Oakes do for a gig now?
    I can’t believe I’m typing this, but maybe it’d be better if Rudd shelves the ETS for now, spends money instead on solar energy/wind power/renewable energy/electric powered cars?
    I just fear Nelson is getting too many free hits right now!

  12. ESJ or anyone else, please inform us why Fuelwatch is a dog. You say it won’t reduce prices. Evidence please. How does giving the public information about fuel prices, that is currently available only to oil companies, make it a dog? If it’s a dog why did the WA Liberals and Labor keep it?

    Let’s have some evidence-based debate, slogans won’t do.

  13. Ad Astra, GB,

    Am I missing something, since when was the former WA Lib government the standard for competent decision making, ie it must be good because the Court Government did it?

    Is this a lord of the manor thing to do with the Courts?

  14. There’s no guarantee Fuel Watch will make it through the senate.
    It might be better for Labor to either dump it or compromise with the Liberals and amend the scheme.

  15. ESJ – [Thanks Catrina, Always found Andrew annoying] – no, you cannot be serious. My parrot has returned. I let him off at the Simpson Desert few months ago. Amazing, a homing parrot.

    Amigo Ronnie, Condi has nothing on our Penny. i think our Labor friends are practising what Mao said to Tricky Dicky that “I like the Rightists, they can do things that the Left can only talk about”.

  17. 63 Progressive – this poll has really spooked you hasn’t it? What you are essentially saying is that Labor should abandon some of what it believes in, because it may cost them some votes (although this poll doesn’t necessarily suggest this at all) and only do the “popular” things. If that is your stance by the way, the last poll I saw on the ETS had an overwhelming number of people wanting the government to go ahead with it. Wouldn’t this be plain gutless and wouldn’t it alienate its base?

  18. FuelWatch is OK. It’s not a big deal to me as I don’t drive, but I can see how it’s useful to have the low petrol prices on the TV news. I’m surprised it’s become such a big political issue since the eastern states got hold of it, myself.

  20. Fuelwatch will give us drivers the opportunity to find the cheapest fuel in our area, which will be a saving on the day. Unlike it is now when you fill up thinking you have purchased at the cheapest on the day then you drive a kilometer away and find it 2 or 3 cents a litre cheaper. So over all it may not lower the fuel price but will allow us to save at the bowsers which indirectly is a lowering of the fuel price.

  23. A Queensland Supreme Court judge has overturned the result of the Liberal Party Council Meeting last night and ruled the weekend Constitutional Conventions can go ahead.

    [THE Supreme Court has crushed an attempt by Liberal state president Mal Brough to stop his party from holding a convention on a merger with the Nationals tomorrow.

    The ruling by Justice Glenn Martin has cleared the way for 450 Liberal Party delegates and 430 National Party delegates to vote on whether to form a single conservative party in Queensland.

    Shane Doyle, SC, for state council vice-president Daryl Fennell, who brought the action as a Liberal member who had registered to attend the meeting, told the Supreme Court in Brisbane that the senior council did not have the power to postpone the convention.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24074748-952,00.html

  25. Rudd should NOT abandon the ETS. It is good policy. The problem is that Rudd and Labor have done a poor job of selling it.

    I have seen a couple of interviews with Rudd recently, and when asked about the ETS, he goes into too many details. He struggles to communicate the core principles and, worse, fails to inspire the country to fully embrace our leadership position in tackling climate change,which is what we are. We are now acting as leaders but you’d barely know it. Rudd has allowed Nelson to mount an incredibly dishonest scare campaign and as a result has spent way too much time on the defensive rather than the offensive.

    After Howard’s stint as PM, a myth surfaced that Australians want boring, management-style leaders rather than those with big vision and inspirational oratory. It’s wrong, dead wrong. Rudd needs someone to pull him aside and tell him he has got to start inspiring the country. So much potential has been wasted with this ETS – it is not a new tax nor is it a cost of living bomb, as the Libs would have us believe. It is a mechanism for getting business to invest more heavily in renewable technology.

    Anyway, Rudd is by no means a bad PM, unlike Howard. But we live in times when inspiration is needed. We are seeing it throughout the world with the rapid rise of Barack Obama, and if Rudd can’t get on board, if he behaves too much like the head of the public service rather than a leader, then Labor will struggle. The Libs won’t get in, because they offer nothing better, but Labor will fail to cement its position and therefore keep the Libs well and truly alive and only inches from government.

  28. So the QLD Liberals are going to have a convention to approve an ‘amalgamation’ with the National Party which will result in a new party that will be both an affiliate of the National Party (of Australia) and a branch of the Liberal Party (of Australia) except that the federal Liberal party have reportedly indicated that they will not accept it as a branch in its proposed form.

    Regardless of all that, does anyone care to speculate, or better still offer informed comment on whether or not the ECQ are likely to approve such an arrangement and the registration of a name like Liberal National Party, given that existing parties with the names of the constituent parts currently exist as seperate entities, and one of them may continue to exist as a seperate entit at some level in QLD?

  29. It will all become clearer after tomorrow Geoffrey but there is little doubt that what the conservatives will have achieved is forming three parties out of two. Most likely now we will have a Queensland Liberal National Party, some sort of disgruntled Liberal Party and some style of a disgruntled country party.

  30. Geoffrey

    If the takeover of the Qld Libs goes ahead or not, I cannot see that the name will be relevant, they could easily call themselves the Conservative Party and bypass any EC issues.

  33. “And another term for Bligh and crew next year I assume.”

    Labor has a huge majority in Qld – it would take a uniform swing of 8% to see the Pineapple party in Government.

    The Borg will be opposition leader for a long time. 🙂

  34. With all the drama of the past twenty-four hours we are still back to where we were yesterday only worse for the conservatives. It was just a small taste of the confusion that will follow every stage of the process as we proceed on with the marriage of two parties following a blueprint that is riddled with problems.

  36. Steve: I’m rolling around, laughing my arse off! You can always rely on the conservative parties in QLD to stuff things up! If I was Anna Bligh, I’d be sleeping sound tonight!
    Gary: Yes, maybe I’m being a little alarmist! Rudd doesn’t have to shelve an ETS, but maybe it’s not a bad idea to delay its introduction for a few years?

  42. Progressive – I think that aspect (and Turnbull’s own lack of faith in the Bolt view of things) will mean this issue shall continue to fester.

  44. A COURT has given a Queensland Liberal Party convention the green light to proceed this weekend after ruling the state council had no power to postpone it.

    Anti-merger Libs lose court appeal
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24077665-5005962,00.html

    Noocat @ 75

    Agree totally re Rudd. He’s acting like Australia’s chief bureaucrat rather than its Prime Minister. He is not a leader, he is a manager.

    And GG, I just whacked myself in the head pre-emptively so you don’t have to send in the post you were thinking of, I’ve done it for you. 😉

    Ronster

    You have addressed my nuclear fusion and ball-bearing arguments against the solar grid (how could I forget Horatio’s Hornets!!!) but you have suspiciously declined to rebuff my suggestion for Ruddster to engage the aliens on a diplomatic level. Are you holding back the trump card in the White Paper.

  45. Progressive, I think the problem is actually the opposite. I think people want the ETS to have more teeth than it has. Most average punters would like to think the ETS will actually make a difference, the current version appears a bit wishy washy to me, with to much compensation for the major polluters.
    The government needs to make the polluters pay and reward new industry in renewable energy and carbon reducing technology with as much money as they can afford. With a 20 billion surplus that should not be hard.

  46. 85
    Grog Says:

    Anyone else notice the tear in Turnbull’s eye?

    yep…thoughts?

    #
    56
    Classified Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 6:16 pm

    Sorry to post off topic, but I was wondering if anybody has an opinion on this image on the Canberra Times

    Is Turnbull crying ( I don’t believe it for a second if he is, that it was over latest brouhaha) but it just doesn’t look real to me…did they Photoshop it in?( and for Gods sake if so…why?)

    Or am I seeing things?

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/turnbull-falls-into-step-over-ets/1226810.aspx
    #

  47. Ron

    Before you get all sceptical with me about the aliens, the Daily Tele has jumped on the bandwagon and they are NEVER wrong. 74% (11,000 on the online poll) agree that aliens existence has been covered up.

    24 HOURS after former NASA astronaut and moonwalker Dr Edgar Mitchell stunningly claimed aliens do exist, we can present the video evidence supporting his claim.

    Aliens really are here
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24075598-5001021,00.html

  49. Speaking of leaders in trouble, how long do you think Gordon Brown has got? The Labour party lost the Glasgow East by-election with 26% swing to the SNP yesterday. And there has been a host of other by-election losses as well as extremely poor poll results.

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