Presidential election minus 17 weeks

A new home for another fortnight or so’s worth of top quality US election repartee. I’m only one minor irritation away from pulling the plug on these threads, so please try not to annoy me (annoy each other by all means, but not me).

UPDATE (9/7/2008): After careful reflection, I have decided this will be the final US election thread. It will close for business in a week’s time, at which point American politics will be declared off-topic across the site. Many thanks for your co-operation.

UPDATE: (10/7/2008): New US site open for business. Thanks to Catrina for getting this off the ground.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 weeks”

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  1. 102

    Crikey, can you imagine him doing one in front of Sharon’s Ghettogate?

    That’d play well back at Neocon central! LOL

  4. Still thinking that the biggest consideration in the VP stakes is gonna be Foreign Policy / Military issues.
    Wes Clark or Joe Biden….maybe Bill Richardson.

  9. KR @ 97….Yes, the FR has handed the keys to the safe to the burglars. Unbeleivable, really. And I also agree, the policy failings have a long pedigree – going back to Bush 1 and Clinton.

    By the way, I’ve been hearing some disturbing anecdotal reports from China: consumer spending has started to contract and property values have tumbled substantially in the boom provinces of the south-east. The residential market in Guangzhou is reportedly down 25% this year and similar falls have been experienced in Fujian. Even Shanghai has supposedly been feeling the chill. If true, this would presage trouble in the Chinese banking sector and for the wider economy. The Chinese economy has certainly been red hot in the last few years and the government has been trying to slow things down. Maybe they are due for an old-fashioned industrial-style “cyclical correction”.

  12. Finns, it indeed seems unfortunate that a child has initials that will have them called ‘sucker’, ‘all day sucker’ etc for the rest of their life.

  15. Another Supreme Court decision where Obama has sided with the ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges This matter was posted by amigo FINNS the other day , an further data follows In 1973 in 2 related Supreme Court Judgments (Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton), the Supreme Court ruled a woman had a constitutonal right to abortion , but subject to the exceptions to preserve the mothers life and subject to preserve the mothars physical and emotional mental health , as determined by the atending doctor’s medical judgment re a post-viable fetuse Whether posters agree with or disagree with Abortion itself , this has ben the Law of the US for the past 26 years with the 3 exseptions as per above allowing such abortions In April 2007 Obama co sponsord the the Freedom of Choice Act , which renforces this criteria On the 22/7/07 an 22/1/08 , Obama stated he would sign this act as law as POTUS (Bush will not) Obama’s position is generaly a ‘left’Dems postion It is also the positon of all 4 ‘left’ Supreme Court Judges & 3 of the 5 ‘right’ Judges And ONLY the other 2 ‘right’ Supreme Cort Judges Thomas and Scalia oppose the emotional mentel health exception Now Obama agrees with these ‘right’ Judges Thoamas & Scalia ( 2 of the 9 Suprme Judges) Obam this month said “I don’t think that ‘mental distress’ qualifies as the health of the mother “I think it has to be a serious physical issue that arises in pregnancy” to justify such abortions Obama is now against for part of Roe/Wade that’s 26 yearsof US Law , has reversed his support for his own Act and Obama has sided instead with the 2 extremest ‘right’ judges Supreme Court Juges against the other 7 Court Judges Sooner rather than later a mark ii ‘clarifying’ comment will cometh As said , the issue here is not pro or anti Abortion , but the Obma position change , and Obama’s positioning favouring th ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges This is the 4th time in a month (plus the wiretap proposed Bill) that I’ve posted he’s done so , since being the Nomonee This is not pragmatism , this Obama is supporting ‘right’ judges views Wonder if the Obama as POTUS will appoint ‘left’ or ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges I’m elections ambivelant

  16. Ron,

    Obama is not a conservative on abortion – he has an excellent rating from NARAL (and other pro-choice agencies).

    What he is doing, however, is drifting right in order to pick up the so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as appealing to Southern white voters. As many of us have said before, Obama can’t rely purely on black turnout to win Southern states in November – he needs to win white votes.

    Drifting to the right on abortion (as well on gun rights and Gitmo) helps bring some of these voters into the fold. The luxury that Obama has in this election is he doesn’t have to spend nearly the same effort as most presidential candidates (and certainly McCain) rallying the base to vote for him – all he needs to do is to run to the right and squeeze McCain out of the centre…

  17. Politically I think he’s been very shrewd the last few weeks. The Repubs best chance was to paint him as a “Dukakis liberal”. By coming out with some conservative views now, it neuters that line of attack. Also, I wonder how much of the left-wing disappointment is because they’d been idolising Obama they’ve projected a lot of their beliefs onto him.

  18. Al @ 117,

    That’s very true. Just before the “clinching” Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Obama and McCain were level on the RCP average (nation-wide). Ever since then, by tacking to the right, Obama has been able to open up a (currently) 5.5% lead over McCain in the RCP averages.

    That said, I would expect McCain to get at least 2 more bounces from here – one after he picks his VP (as long as it’s not a mega-dud – see Geraldine Ferraro 1984) and one after the Republican convention. So this race is still far from over…

  19. More confusion from anti Obama quarters above I see. Those same ones decrying his idealism and demanding more pragmatism ala Hillary all through the primaries! The same ones defending DLC politics when it suits then putting a purity suit on to attempt to hit Obama! The ones that don’t like leftist losers, but seem to hate savvy winners as well! ‘Tis too funny.

    I’m in complete agreement with SL and Al. The way that the Republicans were going to come out and hit Obama after he captured the nomination – the premise that their whole campaign would have revolved around – was to paint him as a Dukakis. Instead the media is fixated on the Left’s disappointment with Obama. The Republicans cannot pull out their only card now because it will be both confused and confusing.

  20. Perhaps you’re on the money, Al. The Kid’s lurch to the centre is showing indications of hitting electoral pay dirt. Maybe Obi’s obtuse triangulation has an acute angle:)

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/07/obama-making-gains-in-red-stat.html
    ———————
    http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080708_elegy/

    “He was an outspoken conservative who at times was instrumental in opposition or promotion of civil rights,[2] communism, tax increases, abortion, gay rights, affirmative action, food stamps, secularism, and government-funded healthcare legislation.”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Helms
    ———————-
    “Maybe they (China) are due for an old-fashioned industrial-style “cyclical correction”.”

    Could be right there, Bo-Bo at 109. The Five Elements of Wu Xing are positioning for a Wrath of Khan alignment;

    Metal: Hang Seng stress shear

    Wood: Sino-stock splinter

    Water: Mandarin monetary maelstrom

    Fire: Bourse blow-torch catalysing fiscal flame-out.

    Earth: Big Richter recession quake maker

    I Ching it likely to induce deep Depression globally going forward.

  21. Obama can have his cake and eat it, or so it seems. The meta-theme in this election is the necessity for change, and he certainly has that issue stitched up. He is the physical, intellectual and oratorical embodiment of change. McCain can’t compete on this ground at all. But at the same time, Obama can maximize his chances by some “cross-cultural” counter-liberal signals. He is letting the voters know he is not a standard issue politician and is willing to walk his own road. In a presidential system, this is very important. Obama will steal McCain’s “maverick” appeal, which has been his only winning card so far. Obama will come to be seen as “the strong leader” who can take America in “the right direction” by promising “inspirational change”. He may end up making Reagan look like a try-hard.

  22. Congress hits a new low. 9% believe it is doing a good job. About the same % that believe in a flat earth. Down from 11% in the last survey. this is te first time it has been in single digits. More doom for the Repugs. Its much easier to blame it on to them. 52% believe they are doing a bad job.

  23. Turmoil hits the McCain camp. Apparently no one knows who’s in charge. Bush III won’t sack anyone, just moves them down the ladder a bit. There for there is continual sniping and back stabbing. Great way to run a campaign. Sort of how George Bush is running the country.

  24. Chris B,

    The only problem with your post @ 122 is that Congress is run by the Democrats atm – so how it is easier to blame the Republicans for Congress’ bad performance is beyond me…

  25. Chris, why is it much easier to blame Congress on the Republicans when the Democrats control both houses? I can’t remember who it was that said it, but the GOP should be attacking the Democratic Party and showing that it controls Congress and tying that Obama.

  26. You can always trust Matty Drudge to sink the boot into the US economy, after all it’s a pretty big, stupid target.

    China’s economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a study released Tuesday by a US research organization concluded.
    The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century.
    “China’s economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan,” Keidel writes.

    China’s economy to become world’s biggest in 2035: study
    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080708201459.iw1grzgd&show_article=1

  27. 125 Al Simple. Bush II is in charge of the Presidency. He’s getting blamed for all the stuff ups. Haven’t you seen his polling at the moment? Abysmal. About where the congresses approval is. Co incidental? I don’t think so.

  28. There may be some misundastanding of my position SL and Al Obama in these 5 cases has not moved to the centr bread & buter issues , he has moved to the ‘right’ to neocon on these issues , he moved to the ‘right’ by supporting ‘right’ Supreme court judges against ‘left’ ones The ‘right’ Supreme court Judes represent the consevate neocon views of americans on judicial matters , the ‘left’ ones generaly represent Dems ‘left’ positions So lets look at each Re th Exxon Valdez oils spils demolition of 2,000Km coastline, Obama goes against the ‘left’ judges wanting th Exxon to pay 5 billion to 33,000 alaskans & for the ‘right’ judges support for tth oil company payng only 500 million , that’s not moving to the ‘centre’ at all , that’s moving to the neocons , to big Oilys ‘right’ peoples against the envoronmentalists who are ‘left’ & ‘centre’ peoples Next go to this Wade/Roe mentel exception abortion situation , Obama has not moved to the centre at all , 7 Supreme Court Judges support the current Law mentel exseption , Obama has moved not to th centre but to the exteme right where only only 2 ‘right’ judges thomas & Scalia have written dissenting bits Contradictoryly , Obama is so exteme pro abortion on other issues yous would be shocked , often more exteme than pro abort groups Next take Ilegal wiretapping by Telcos , suggest read my #1991 where he had a public stance in both Jan & Feb of no immunity for dem Telcos , but Obama now supports the Reopublicans coverup of the Republican own corupt practises That is not moving to the ‘centre’ either , or avoiding ‘wedgies of soft on NC , he could hav won that argument easily with centre voters supporting no immunity for big business criminals , but instead flipped on his public position & went with the sell out by Pelosi protecting the ‘right’ , weak as water That’s not moving to the cenre at all , that’s moving next to bush saying OK to corrupt (with Pelosi disgraceful band) Next go to gun control where he has a bad history anyway serving on a pro gun lobby bord etc etc , here Obama has not mooved to the centre , Obama flipped on local gun control & endorsed the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the District of Columbia’s gun-control law. What could be more reasonble than a the DC city restricting handguns, or requiring that firearms be stord in ways that do not present a mortal threat to children? Obama is against this now , that’s not just shutting your mouth altogether or moving centre but moving ‘right’, to the ‘right to bear arms’ And next supporting the Death when no murdr is committed is not moving to the centre either , it is moving to the ‘right’ , neocons believe in death penaltys So Obama has moved not to the centre but to supportg ‘right in all 5 issues , with the wiretap bit as well a shabby sell out of the constitution favouring criminals Not a lot of centre votes in any of them , more likely centre voters giving both ccandidates a miss & not coming out All 5 represent theoretical pragmatic stances to win centre votes by back room boys , but this Ommy guy was already wining the lection on being a new style politic change to man perceptions vs the Mccain opponent could not politicallyfight against that ‘change’ perception & persona , but Obama is not new style politc now All 5 are totally anti ‘left’ positions , all 5 are supportativ of ‘right’ supreme court juges not ‘left’ ones , and reckon you don’t try to win by guting your whole ‘left’ bases principals , why stand if you stand for a Mccain-lite on such 5 fundametal constatutional maters , and do not expect a change after election either , not for me

  29. 109
    blindoptimist

    China’s a worry, and if we think the FR has been slack, god knows how many dodgey assets are still on the Chinese bank books. Still, they’ve been putting up reserves and generally trying to slow the horses, but it got seriously over-cooked, and with raging food prices (pork went ballistic after a massive porcine infection) and staples getting the ‘good oil’ effect of bio-fuel subsidies in the West, these are very dangerous times. It doesn’t take much to cause a REAL calamity when things get this stressed.

    But I’m farily sanguine about China in the long term in that domestic demand may slow, but it’s bloody-near unstoppable, and we are feeding into it with minerals. What is NOT good for the US consumer is that Chinese inflation is now being imported along with the flat screens and googaws they consume endlessly, and this is at a time when they can hardly afford to pay it.

    Crikey, how quickly things change, eh?

  30. Actually, Bush’s approval rating (RCP 30%) is (somehow) higher than Congress’ approval rating (RCP 18%).

    Second, just because a president is popular/unpopular does not mean that Congress’ approval rating will also be high/low. This is particularly the case when the Presidency is in the hands of one party and Congress is in the hands of the other. For example, when Clinton left office his popularity was in the high 50s whilst the GOP-controlled Congress was low. A similar situation was in place when Ronald Reagan left office…

  32. Ron,
    I’m not doubting what you are saying, but can you link to Obama’s statement on the Exxon verdict. I have’t been able to find any comments from him on the case.

  35. Chris B @ 131,

    Link, please?

    Ron @ 130,

    What you say is perfectly correct. But I never supported Obama for his policies or his ideology (I was Clintonista before, after all). The reason why I support Obama is simple – he’s a Democrat – and if I could vote for him, I would, not because of his positions on gun control or Exxon Valdez, but SOLELY on the fact that I would rather have a Democrat in the White House than a Republican. And I suspect that there are many (dare I say millions) of people in the US who are going to vote for Obama for that same reason as well…

  37. Chris B @ 133,

    On what basis (other than your gut) do you make that assertion?

    I’ve given you two clear examples where a popular President has corresponded with an unpopular Congress of the opposite party. I’m sure there have been more instances of this occurring.

    If you’re going to say things like “The people of the USA do not see it that way”, you better have something to back it up…

  38. McCain has chosen the wrong year to run, he would have been more effective in 2000 or 2004. I could be wrong, but surely Obama will have to fall over to lose this one, all things favour the Democrats right now.

  40. Swing Lowe,

    Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. I know some of you are going to say “I did look it up, and that’s not true.” That’s ’cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut.

    Ron,

    I agree that he’s moved to the right, but I don’t think he’s moved to neoconservatism. I see neoconservatism as focussed on foreign policy and massive military spending. I must agree that I probably agree with the Supreme Court’s Exxon Valdez decision, I thought the $2.5 billion punitive damages was excessive, and there interpretation of maritime law was pretty good.

    Gun control and death penatly: if Obama was to run on a gun control and stopping the death penalty platform he would be absolutely carved up by the GOP. We have a very Australian-centric view of these issues and struggle to understand the passion with which people believe in these things in America. Also that move is to a more classical right position (less Government interference in private lives) than a neocon position. While in Australian politics, it would definitely be perceived as movement towards to the right, I would call his position on them in American politics more centrist. The Democratic Party isn’t actually a left party, they’re just not as far to the right as the Republican Party.

    I’m not completely sure on FISA. I don’t see why giving telecoms immunity over actions done at the behest of the government is such a big deal. It should lead to the telecoms providing more substantial evidence against the Bush administration so that we could see some real repercussions against the actual offenders.

  41. Al @ 141

    “Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head?”

    I’m sorry but that is absolute BS.

    1. You have a similar number of neurons in you gut as in you spinal cord. There are vastly more neurons in you cerebrum than in the gut.

    2. In terms of “nerve endings” the neurons in your gut don’t have nearly as many axons and dendrites as those in your brain.

  42. Al

    Should have included the numbers.

    Human brain= 100 billion neurons
    Human enteric (gut) nervous system and spinal cord=500 million neurons each

  46. Quick update on Intrade market for Democratic VPs (following Gov. Warner’s withdrawal from the running) – the higher the number the higher the odds:

    Clinton – 16.5
    Sebelius – 10.7
    Hagel – 10.0 (why?)
    Bayh – 8.6
    Biden – 6.9
    McCaskill – 6.5
    Richardson – 6.5
    Kaine – 6.0
    Wesley Clark/Gephardt/Reed (D – RI) – all 5.0

    I’m still amazed at how high Chuck Hagel is travelling – I still can’t imagine a Democratic senator picking a Republican senator as his running mate for President…

  47. And for interest’s sake (and coz no one else seems to be writing anything on this thread today), here are the main Republican front-runners for VP:

    Romney – 24.6
    Huckabee – 14.0
    Pawlenty – 14.0
    Palin – 11.2 (Gov. of Alaska)
    Crist – 10.0
    Rob Portman – 8.0 (former Rep. from Ohio)
    Carly Fiorina – 7.0 (former CEO of HP)
    Thune – 7.0 (Sen. from SD)

    For anyone who’s interested, Jindal is sitting way back at 4.0.

  48. #119, Panching,

    More confusion from pro Obama quarters above I see. Those same ones starry-eyed his idealism and demanding more idealism ala Messiah all through the primaries! The same ones defending new politics when it suits then putting an old politics pragmatism suit on to attempt to justify Obama! The ones that don’t like principled centrist losers, but seem to love hollow rightist winners as well! ‘Tis too funny.

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