A new home for another fortnight or so’s worth of top quality US election repartee. I’m only one minor irritation away from pulling the plug on these threads, so please try not to annoy me (annoy each other by all means, but not me).
UPDATE (9/7/2008): After careful reflection, I have decided this will be the final US election thread. It will close for business in a week’s time, at which point American politics will be declared off-topic across the site. Many thanks for your co-operation.
UPDATE: (10/7/2008): New US site open for business. Thanks to Catrina for getting this off the ground.
In a hypothetical world where I was a bookmaker, I’d be offering 50-1 for Bloomberg to join the McCain ticket.
GG, if you’d care to join me in this universe, what odds would you be offering for a straight bet on either candidate/party at this stage?
I’m a bit at a loss over the Obama VP pick – I was certain Webb was the frontrunner – Needless to say, I was wrong.
I’m thinking maybe Biden (although I can see Obama bin Biden jokes on the horizon), or perhaps Wes Clarke.
Despite the general ickiness of agreeing with James Carville, Gore would be make for an unbeatable ticket in my opinion.
Obama is ahead in Miami Dade by 12%. The bad news for the Repugs is he is underperforming in the Latino vote, so there is plenty of room for improvement.
http://cbs4.com/defedecolumn/defede.column.obama.2.765569.html
Chris B,
I’ve linked to this before, but if you wanna have a look at the political donations of celebs, prominent business figures etc….
http://www.newsmeat.com/
Again, I’m terribly sad that Klinger from MASH is a republicn.
Chris B,
There are very few Latinos in South Carolina (just over 3% of the population). So any bounce in support Obama gets amongst Hispanics will have a very limited effect in SC.
What Obama needs in SC is white votes (almost 70% of the population). Assuming 90% of African Americans vote for Obama in SC, he’s going to need approximately 35% of the white vote to win the state – an extremely difficult task given that Kerry only got 22% of the white vote in 2004 (and that was with a South Carolina-born VP on the Democratic ticket.
Chris B,
There has been recent speculation that Bill Gates may become John McCain’s VP pick. So it’s more likely he’s going to be donating his money to the GOP this year than Obama…
Thanks for that Optimist.
Have a look at this
Subliminal message on Fox News.
Fox News is putting on subliminal messages in their logo. You can see flashes of McCain’s picture in their news service.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAOQuLxSdY&feature=related
55 Swing Lowe. Spot on, the black population is very high though.
56 Swing Lowe He actually cracked a joke at his retirement saying Obama is looking for a VP. So your guess is as good as mine.
Chris B,
creeeeepppy.
Pancho,
You must know from previous posts that I don’t bet on things that talk.
However, I still think this election is far too close to call. Obama has not got a strong bounce from securing the nomination. Polls will start to mean something around early September. But, Obama is in front atm.
Bloomberg may or may not have personal failings, but who hasn’t. My point is to look at candidates for Republican VP that have strong economic credentials. This could be an election where the electorate are prepared to vote for tough medicine to sort out the economic problems. This would be a problem for Obama.
Have a look at this picture in the New York Times and see how few people are at this meeting in Denver Colorado. Maybe 2 to 300 people at the most. If people are going to suggest that they might be out of the cameras angle, wouldn’t you show the crowd in your camera shot? If that is the case about the camera angle, then I suggest that the Repug organizers are dumb.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/us/politics/08econ.html
They should have the best angle for the crowd, or have they already? I have been to political meeting here with a better rollup. For example Bob Hawke in Montrose Victoria. Montrose was not more a country town on an outer part of Melbourne when that happened.
Mon July 7:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AjIQxbVS8M51vTKRnpUlLHXd.sgF
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55845
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55828
————
The Mittster is hot favourite for the GOPper Veep nominee with the bagmen.
Romney, M……..5
Daylight to Rest of Field:
Pawlenty, T…… 14…..(Timmeh)
Jindal, B………. 16….. (The Exorcist)
Ridge, T………. 16……(Tommy the Tyke)
Crist, C……….. 18……(Chuckie)
Huckabee, M…..20……(Mixta)
Lieberman, J…. 20….. (Schmuckens)
(Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Swing Lowe,
I don’t think you’ve made a logical conclusion there at #56.
If we’re going to speculate, surely it would be more sensible to look at the issues that Gates is concerned with and see how the respective parties stack up on them.
The Gates’ Foundations commitment to education issues would suggest to me that they are more likely to be Obama suppoters….but as i said, it’s all just speculation.
The Gates idea wasn’t really speculation – it came out of a politico.com survey of insiders that asked for their most unconventional, but potentially viable VP picks – a game of fantasy really.
23
Greensborough Growler Says:
July 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
“Looks like the reall issue of the election (The economy) ”
…I just hate to say it Gruffy, but I did tell you this, about 6 months ago! LOL
Good to see you’ve caught up, now, do pay attention!
GG,
the bounce you mention at #60 traditionally comes out of the Convention, where he’ll officially be declared the candidate.
15
Progressive
Like sh!t to tell you the truth Prog, but it passes, and I have my periods of being OK.
Still, mustn’t grumble.
21
blindoptimist
yeah, failures that go back through Clinton’s presidency and to Bush Snr and a bit beyond.
It is truly a catastrophic ‘perfect storm’ and to see crude prices whacking them over the head for their imbecilic addiction and gluttony is one hell of an irony, eh?
All those petro dollars now on the prowl to buy their distressed assets or lend to them at crippling rates.
In a decade you won’t recognize America, it sure a hell won’t be the Star Ship Enterprise of our youth, the unrivaled superpower, confident and assertive. The chill winds have just begun, but they’re going to blow for quite some time.
Pundit Man sez…..(Growls at 60):
“This could be an election where the electorate are prepared to vote for tough medicine to sort out the economic problems. This would be a problem for Obama.”
That’d be right, Horse. Americans are yearning for a fiscally responsible and safe pair of GOPper hands on the tiller after eight years of another GOPper Imbecile who has run the Sep Economy into the ground. Obi must be fair shitting his britches at the prospect. You’re wasting your astute powers of analysis and valuable time on mugs like us. Can’t believe why Fox havn’t snapped a Hemingwayesque talent like your good self up by now. After the 400 big ones Fox recently forked out for a motormouth like Rush, they could have got you for chump change if they’d only known.
Ec,
did you like my little Strother Martin reference back at ya last night? Gave me a wee giggle, but then again, I’m easily amused at myself.
Oppy, your reference, “failure to communicate”, was from Cool Hand Luke which is an excellent movie but not relevant to the point being made.
Strother Martin in “The Streetfighter” plays a completely different role altogether. One was a vicious control freak(CHL) the other a beautiful loser (The Streetfighter).
Check it out and do let me know what traits you can relate to in the James Coburn character. Ron picked up on it.
EC,
sheesh….I don’t wanna get into a whole thing over this. It was just a cute remark as the “Cool Hand Luke” quote related to the broader problem of getting clarity with William – I’m aware that the two characters are different, just thought it was mildly clever as Strother Martin delivered the line in Cool Hand Luke.
I think I’ve overestimated your capacity for whimsy.
My mistake.
I’ll be sure to let you know when I’ve rented Street Fighter and learned the lesson (rolling my eyes.)
Ron @ 1
I can assure you I have already moved into the “ambivalent about the outcome” mindset. I have a feeling the “can’t give a sh!t” phase is not far off. At this rate, Obama will be asking Scalia to be his running mate soon .
Diog, “can’t give a sh!t” – ditto. i tried, i tried and tried but it gets hollower and hollower each day. it’s a pity really.
Diogs and Finns-
are you really saying that come Novemeber you won’t care whether the REpublicans are back in power in the US?
Don’t believe you – you are both way too passionate about issues for that. However, perhaps theere is an element of US election fatigue sneaking in. i suspect William is a definite sufferer.
KR,
You old salt. I have actually called the economy as the major issue many months ago. While I don’t wan’t to get into a posing contest, the record will back me up. Where you and I differ (considerably) is that I see this as something the US will sail through over a couple of years. You on the other hand have always promoted the Armegheddon Effect, where this recession is the big one that’ll send the US to the poor pits. Don’t agree. It’s all about degrees I suppose.
Cheers.
Growler –
I’d prefer your scenario to Kirri’s but honestly, it looks pretty grim doesn’t it?
Kirri – hope you’re hanging in there . Glad to see you on board.
For the psephies, here’s a debate. From EV.
“Scott Rasmussen picked up a hot potato yesterday, the question of whether to normalize polling for partisan identification. Here’s what that means in plain English. Rasmussen’s polls of party identification have shown that averaged over the past few months about 9% more people call themselves Democrats than Republicans. Suppose he runs a poll of 1000 people and by chance gets 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans when he knows that among 1000 voters he should be getting 545 Democrats and 455 Republicans. One option is just to go with the raw data (i.e., not normalize it). The other one is to force the sample to be weighted to the Democrats by 9% by either calling more people and discarding Republicans until the right balance is achieved or by weighting each Democrat called as 1.045 and each Republican as 0.945. Pollsters differ vigorously on whether they should force the sample to conform to a particular partisan model and if so, which one. Gallup was widely criticized by other pollsters last time around for normalizing to a model that contained many more Republicans than they believed was justified by their data.
Here is Rasmussens justification.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/the_value_of_party_weighting_for_a_tracking_poll
GG & KR, i disagree. i dont think the economy will be the biggest issue of the POTUS election.
Everyone knows that the POTUS, Congress, Senate etc are beholden to business, especially big business. i dont think anything will change regardless who gets elected. They decide, not POTUS.
Obama stormed in with big promises for new politics and new Washington that is not hostaged to any special interest groups and business. Well, post primaries, he is no difference. The same old leopard with the same old spots.
Take Iraq, he started by calling all out by March 2008, then all out by July 2010 (16 months after assuming office). Now, it depends, depends and depends. One might be cynical and say this has nothing to do with oil concessions that the Iraqi are now divvy out. The spoils of War for the big boys. No US POTUS would dare to withdraw any significant troops from Iraq that would jeopardize the oil concessions. The troops are needed to protect these oil interests. Especially Pres. Obama, the grassy knoll can be arranged.
Anyway, US POTUS election has never been about policies. It’s more about personality. Someone the US voters like, feel comfortable and safe as their CIC. Aye, aye Sir.
Finns, when you say you tried and tried and tried to like Obama, was this before or after you listed every single right wing smear against him on here, from wright-gate to granny-gate to race-card-gate to all-under-the-bus-gate? 🙂 Come on pal, you never liked the guy.
By the way, Obama’s Iraq policy has always been to withdraw 1 to 2 brigades per month until most were out over 16 months. In spite of the excitement and rage over several recent statements, none of them contradict this policy.
Pancho, believe me, i did, i did and i did.
Sun July 6: But don’t worry, Beijing air is a fresh as it was in Queenstown, Tassie in its heyday:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=Ajy6WwKv_2O8jyRKP3iLDqxX_b4F
“And who’s gonna tell the children
How the rivers used to flow cystal blue
And we keep leaving scars on Mother Earth
And moving closer to the truth
T.J. White
—————————-
“I’ll be sure to let you know when I’ve rented Street Fighter and learned the lesson (rolling my eyes.)”
Not a lesson, Oppy, merely an observation. I LIKE toey little smart-arses, used to be one myself:) And as we’re being tangentially didactic here,
*rolls eyes* , has greater impact. Do excuse me now, I’m back off to save The Universe.
Meh!
75
Greeensborough Growler
It’s a matter of time-frame mostly Gruffy, but this year’s spectacular implosion of credit and mortgage markets was looking pretty certain before the words to the opposite effect came tumbling from Ben Bernanke’s lips.
In the long term the US is on a slow and slippery ride to another economic level of snakes and ladders, one were they will not be borrowing the world’s spare capital to p!ss up against the wall like there’s no tomorrow (or, there simply will not be any ‘tomorrow’ worth getting p!ssed for! LOL)
A mountain of unfunded social security liabilities awaits them over the coming decades, and these are in tsunami proportions. They simply can’t pay them, full stop, as they’ve been raiding the cookie jar for yonks just to keep the idiotic pretence that they don’t need to use taxation properly.
It is a sick economy now, but it’s got some longer term terminal contradictions already raging away.
76
Hi Jen, thanks, feeling moderately crappy actually, but the worst lasts a few days, until the cumulative effect hits in a few weeks. (I’ve been warned by many about this, so I’m taking it very seriously!) Then it becomes a whole new ballgame as you try to survive the treatment! LOL
I”m holding up for now, and thanks to everyone for their concern.
Now, pass the popcorn…
….oh, that’s right, it ain’t for months! Oh well, we can just plug on until Obama’s elected I suppose! LOL
Praise where it’s due (if slightly off topic), but Bernard Keane’s first sentence in Crikey today is a bloody cracker:
“And so it came to pass that John Howard turned out to be the high water mark — pun intended — of the Coalition’s willingness to address global warming.”
…and the rest is worth reading too.
This debate is really ‘warming up’ (pun intended), but it will be very interesting to see how Obama handles the volte face they need to execute in the land of the shrinking SUV.
William, I like your taste in music, are you going to take requests? The real thing. Note digital radio starts next year. Better quality, record pause and play back. Auto tune of th radio stations. No getting in a renta car and not being able to find the local stations or go on a trip to the country an not find stations. The stations name will be diplayed along with the song name and musicians. But all that is a bit off topic.
Sorry about my two links to the NY times above folks, I didn’t realise that they would do that. It worked fine before I posted.
‘I’m back off to save The Universe’
You cann’t do that , the galactic rules the heavans above the Towers ,
barbarian sin is the motto but all who feast in wines & other wickeds are welcome
The Panche
“By the way, Obama’s Iraq policy has always been to withdraw 1 to 2 brigades per month until MOST ..were out over 16 months ”
Whats the missing word after ‘most’ Murali ? , what is th US military branch of the troops that will be left behind , how many , for how lonfg , for what purpose , and info sourse
50 state strtegy ? think thats 50 plus DC , DNC Dean had this briht idea , our Partys have 150 electorare strtegy for the 150 electorates also , nice headline but no politcal reality there Dems hold 19 plus DC , min 1 needed is Ohio makes potus Politicans waste our money with gay abandon , but not there campaign mullah , thats treated with reel special care And , those confederate flags mean Jefferson Davis the past president still rules against the Dems NE liberals , except four the 2 N coastal tragacs demos changing And as for the the WV breakaway & numerous other states as well just are red as red , token pennies for the faithful The Obama campaign man says the 50 with such straight faces So we have 10 holes in the bucket mr McCain , & 5 more to play with either as bonus four the knowing or as insurance for the jiterbugs
FINNS , to save time , one could take the noughts & crosses approch List every losing POTUS from WW2 & ask was he any good anyway , and did the voters get it right especialy without hindsiht benefit (except for the chads voters)
Just go to Obama’s website to join in:
The Democratic National Committee and Barack Obama’s presidential campaign will hold meetings in all 50 states to get voters more involved in developing the party platform.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will chair the Platform Drafting Committee, the DNC and the Obama campaign were scheduled to announce Tuesday. The committee will invite members of the public to attend meetings around the country, with policy experts and other Democratic officials on hand to answer questions.
Salon
…a bit like Ruddy’s travelling Willberries …er, cabinet, isn’t it?
Those grass roots. This could even be construed as democracy if he’s not careful.
ok, here’s a poll I’ll bet you never dreamed of: US pet owners go for McCain (and not because he’s the underdog…tish, boom!)
It’s for real:
An AP-Yahoo News poll found that pet owners favor McCain over Obama 42 percent to 37 percent, with dog owners particularly in McCain’s corner.
Salon
…and the whole thing is funny with breakdowns for blacks/whites and dog and cat owners.
Who said US politics was infantile????
dogs can eat bull but not fluff
A warning to the Dems. dont be too over confident:
[First, the Obama campaign should not make the mistake of assuming that most voters know as much about the candidates as the insiders too.
Second, although the economy and gas prices are dominating the news and the minds of voters, the Democrats should not make the mistake of focusing exclusively on the economy.
A third mistake the Democrats have made in each of the previous two elections is to underestimate the ability of Republican voters to mobilize their conservative base.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/three-mistakes-the-democr_b_111317.html
dogs don’t vote
93 The Finnigans Wouldn’t mind betting some independant organisation runs some late ads stiring up McCains foes in the religious groups.
You know the anyone but McCain mob.
Webb balked at VP when they asked to do a background check.
blindoptimist
This will amuse you, for colossal understatement and that certain “d’oh!” factor:
“The Federal Reserve’s job is not only to tend to macro economic conditions, it must also ensure the integrity of borrowing and lending,” said Lacy Hunt, a former Fed economist who is now the chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management. “The regulatory process obviously broke down in a massive way; and one can’t help but wonder whether we should have had more actual bankers on the board.”
…what? Real actual bankers on the Federal Reserve Board, as it’s constituent parts are actual Reserve Banks you’d have to wonder why this hasn’t occured to anyone previously?
Maybe because the unholy alliance of the FR being Wall Street’s b!tch for so long, that they abrogated nearly all oversight to the Harvard mathematicians (AKA ‘the smartest guys in the room’) until the inmates were literally running not just the asylum, but the entire friggin’ economy!
More ‘real bankers’ on the Reserve? Who’d have thought of such a thing????LOL
I’ve got a funny feeling Obama will ask Edwards to be his running mate!
The DNC Dean 50 state aproach is really spin Take the state of Utah as example , Obama is behind by 24% , Kerry lost it by 45% , Kerry lost it by 40% , Billy in 1996 lost it by 21% , Billy in 1992 lost it by 18% And Utah is part of this 50 state strtegy with Obama meetings set up , just show & token moneys , and mcCain will not fall for it , and neither Mccain or the Team Obama will wast real money their or in other safe red ones Mccains problem is he has to win almost all 15 vunarable states to win & Obama only a relatively few of thems & will outspend him in all & force him to spend his limited resourcess in all of them
FINNS , if i was Mccain , i’d blame the Dems Congrss control they’ve had since 2006 & the budgets , and demand why Dems didn’t put up bills to regulate etc the economy & the now out of control fincial markets seeing the Dems had Congrss , Mccain can say its all the Dems fawlt (of course leaving out the war costs & that Bush wouldn’t like them regulations etc bills anyway) If i was Obama i’d show the US econ stats when Dems Billy was their in 98 & 99 vs Repug Bush 2006 & 2007 Runing the economy may come down to both a blam game and ‘who do you trust ‘to fix it , maybe more mullah will or will not count
Obama in Israel 22nd or 23rd
He will be doing a Ronald Regan type “speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, the site of a famous Ronald Reagan speech in 1987 in which the former president challenged then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down that wall.”
Obama will be in Paris 25th of July