Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. 399
    zedder Says:
    Oh dear “Just Me”, you play the man, not the facts. Stick with the argument rather than besmirching a person’s motivations. This is science, not politics.

    Pathetic.

  2. Zoom – we were talking about Antartic sea ice, there is a upward trend. Artic sea ice OTOH is showing a decline. Seemed obvious to most people.
    “Just Me” does not deserve any response with the last post.
    Plenty of data at a glance for those who want to drill into the data here.
    http://tinyurl.com/55b6qd

  3. zedder

    In this modern age it really isn’t hard to use the internet, find data, think and work out for yourself that the denialist are full of it.

    Some links:

    First off you need to understand the difference between temperature and heat, you need to understand that to realize that when a large body of ice starts melting heat is sucked out of the system stopping the temperature rise if the heat input is constant, but once the ice melt it will rise again.

    Second a little research into

    short term and long term trends    , the denialist seem to get all worked up over what would be seen as a single poll result on this site. It’s knowledge that helps you out in many ways, the link is to an article dealing with stock trading.

    Now here is the temperature change, antarctic (nasa image) end. The winds are circulating faster and it’s colder in the center, but the ice is melting at a respectable rate because the ice is melting on the edges ( where there is a temperature rise). Now you might be in the set that believe nasa didn’t put people on the moon, and the melting ice caps aren’t melting, in which case, don’t worry about the link.

    But that is not where the action is, Greenland has enough ice on it to raise the sea level about 5 meters and it’s ice is slipping into the sea.

    I don’t know why the denialists bother. It’s all happening, and the happening is accelerating, as it progresses they are just going to look sillier and sillier. Nature isn’t going to stop because of bullshit typed into denialist web pages.

    The temperature stability over the last 9000 years has been the exception not the rule, it’s over.

    Of cause you may believe the earth is flat and held up by elephants or that we came from the heavens 5000 years ago and god controls the outcome, or some other pre science myth, in which case your not going to believe science is our best chance of describing what is happening and that science is be best hope of creating rational public policy.

  5. I’m not much interested in hosting another of these brawls about climate science. Can we move on please, or at least direct the discussion back to domestic political matters.

  6. Sorry William, but I think you have a problem, domestic politics is going to be about climate change. Right up to and including the next federal election.

  7. Charles, it’s late. I just logged in. I agree with William in not getting too bogged down with science.

    But surely it can’t be right that if you add an ice cube to a glass of water the water level does not rise when the ice cube melts?

    x + y cannot equal x regardless of the quantity of x and y.

  8. But surely it can’t be right that if you add an ice cube to a glass of water the water level does not rise when the ice cube melts?

    x + y cannot equal x regardless of the quantity of x and y.

    Well, here’s your chance to do some easy but real basic science, and test your hypothesis.

    1. Take one glass of room temperature water and some ice cubes.

    2. Put ice cubes in glass of water and mark on the side of glass the level where the water comes up to.

    3. Wait till ice cubes melt, then see if water level has moved.

    4. Figure out why it didn’t.

  9. George Megalogenis looks at the political impications .

    “MEASURED in dollars and common sense, the task of implementing an emissions trading scheme as part of Australia’s effort in addressing climate change is no different to the GST.

    It begins with a circular transaction of revenue coming in and tax cuts going out. Canberra collects billions in revenue from the carbon permits it auctions to businesses; businesses pass on the cost of those permits to consumers; but before consumers turn into government-dumping voters, the revenue Canberra collects is given back as tax cuts or other compensation. In other words, a short-term bribe to secure a long-term change in the way the economy operates.

    The obvious job for Kevin Rudd and his merry band of ministers is to make voters feel they are doing their bit to save the planet, while also leaving their wallets fat enough to help pay for the transition costs and keep a lid on inflationary expectations. The GST did all of the above when it mattered most for the Coalition between 1998 and 2001. ”

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_gst_shows_the_way/

  10. Joshua Gans has written a piece for The Age on Innovation Policy. It looks like Universities and New low emissions Technology businesses will be the big winners. He claims that Universities are going to have to change what courses they are offering to cater for the new economic and scientific era that is about to be ushered in.

    “If, as Garnaut projects, the world fund for research in low-emissions technologies needs to be about $100 billion a year, then, proportionate to its GDP share, Australia’s contribution would have to be about 3% of this. Over all research, our share is now less than half that.

    What Garnaut is doing is saying emissions caps are only part of our international commitment. We need to commit to spending on the other public good – knowledge – in the same way. And, fortunately, the revenue from emissions permits will more than cover such a commitment. This is a critical change in philosophy on innovation policy. I endorse it wholeheartedly.”

    http://economics.com.au/?p=1618

  11. [But surely it can’t be right that if you add an ice cube to a glass of water the water level does not rise when the ice cube melts?]

    1. Glass of water
    2. Add block of ice to glass => Water level rises from step 1
    3. Ice melts => Water level stays the same as at step 2

    Part 2 is the bit we need to worry about… when land-borne ice such as in Greenland melts INTO the sea, it will raise water levels no matter what we do.

  12. The other interesting thing is that there was a huge drop off in Students at school studying Sceince and Maths during the Howard era and this will have to be reversed now very quickly.

  13. Yes Steve

    I believe this is one of the nuggets of policy shit Possum talked about: boosting elite private schools probably meant more went into business/law then science & engineering.

  14. Charles I misinterpreted what you said at 404, you are right. Maginificently articulated Dario.

    I am predicting that Rudd is going to wedge Brenda, Straightbull, Hockey, Cossie and Julie so far on petrol and climate change that they are going to be hangin’ from the ceiling of parliament house by their undies.

    Pain for the liberals, especially Hockey ouch LOL.

  15. 414 Centre, John Quiggin fires a nice old warning shot to the Opposition too.

    “Whether or not the government ultimately follows Garnaut’s proposed model, there’s no doubt that the Review has shifted the terms of debate substantially. Those (like the Federal Opposition) who are tempted to play the issue for short-term political gain will pay a big price in the end if they succumb to that temptation.”

    http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/04/garnaut-draft-report-released/

  16. 413 “I believe this is one of the nuggets of policy shit Possum talked about: boosting elite private schools probably meant more went into business/law then science & engineering.”

    Jovial Monk, dare we say that we can now see the need for an ‘Education Revolution’?

  17. Centre at 414. Like all things political, it depends how the MSM plays it. Don’t depend on them to necessarily support efforts to combat the effect of climate change.

  18. Absolutely, I could not give a shit how much it costs to get those computers into public/low fee private schools. You are shit w/o computer skills these days.

    Hope to see lots more money on education

  20. Great quote from the LP comments thread.

    To obtain government the Coalition must have a credible alternative CC policy, and notwithstanding the leadership and team required to enact if elected, such a low-notch policy would be flying in the face of where the action is at. At that point in the future, such action will be much more than mere meetings and public awareness – there will be examples in place where sectors of the community have already made sacrifices and taken the steps towards their own positive contribution and these would form a formidable voice against a populist, opportunist policy.

    They’re buggered. The Coalition has nowhere to go on this. How can they possibly catapult ahead of the Labor Party, with limited media, carrying weight, on an issue requiring leadership and team. (And that weight is not only CC heavy, but includes the focus on ‘the individual’ bleeding through its veins).

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/07/04/open-garnaut-report-thread/#comment-483977

  21. ruawake at 419. After reading that article by Christopher Pearson, there is absolutely no doubt (if there ever was one) that he is nothing but a coalition hack. What else can you expect from a former speech writer for the rodent?

  22. It looks like Malcolm may be in court during the next election.

    “THE Liberal Party frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull could be contesting the next federal election at the same time as contesting a damages suit relating to the nation’s largest corporate collapse, HIH Insurance.

    The Supreme Court heard yesterday that a longstanding claim by the HIH liquidator, a McGrath Nicol partner Tony McGrath, is likely to come to trial in February 2010.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/turnbull-faces-poll-during-court-case/2008/07/03/1214950951548.html

    Maybe Tony Abbott is in with a chance after all. 🙂

  23. Just Me @ 380 –

    I’ve still only begun working my way through the Garnaut report, but it seems I misunderstood what Garnaut was saying about Kakadu. Instead of it drying out the problem is going to be it will have too much water as it becomes inundated by the ocean. 🙁

    But that presents another problem because Google Earth data indicates much of the northern fridge of the continent is at a/below similar levels, including all of Darwin.

    .

    Centre @ 414 –

    I am predicting that Rudd is going to wedge Brenda, Straightbull, Hockey, Cossie and Julie so far on petrol and climate change that they are going to be hangin’ from the ceiling of parliament house by their undies.

    Populism is okay when there is nothing much at stake, but in times of crisis people turn to strong leaders and the one thing the Opposition has demonstrated daily since the election is that not one of their front bench has any ticker. If people do accept that we are in deep poop on CC then the current lot are toast.

  24. Greens to contest Mayo by-election

    “The Greens have announced they will field a candidate for the federal by-election in the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo later this year.

    Lynton Vonow says he can improve on his performance against Alexander Downer last year, when he attracted nearly 10,000 votes.”

  26. cille

    I detect that the media is slowly catching on, the Government can do more than one thing at a time.

    But it seems it is the Govt’s. fault for not letting us know. Oh thats right the media does not inform – it just spins and comments.

  27. If it was a Labor Opposition the media would be screaming at them to release their alternative policies by now. It is only the biggest restructure of the economy ever undertaken. But I suppose there is no need for this opposition to have a substantive policy on Climate Change because they don’t believe it exists.

    Maybe their game is to challenge the Queensland Opposition for it’s unchallenged title of the ‘best resourced and laziest opposition ever’.

  29. “Costello, man of the future”??? (C Pearson)
    Says it all, really. The future never comes…
    And, by implication, he sure weren’t no man of the present or the past.

  30. Christopher Pearson is particularly venomous in his comments.

    He wrote, “a great many state teachers and their appalling unions have preyed like parasites on the long-suffering proletariat” (“Our forsaken schools”, 3-4/3/2007).

    He also wrote that parents believe state schools are “run primarily for the benefit of otherwise unemployable teachers” (“Howard’s cultural agenda”, 22-23/5/2004), a turn of phrase that so overjoyed him that he repeated its essence in another of his diatribes (“An education in reform”, 16-17/10/2004).

    He also wrote, “The French have a phrase to cover betrayals of this order. They call it le trahison des clercs, the treason of the clerical classes. Implicit in it is the notion of conscious delinquency, of knowing better and still behaving irresponsibly. That is the charge that the subliterate young, here as well as in America, are entitled to level at many of their teachers, lecturers and the vast armies of education bureaucrats.” (“The betrayal of education”14/1/2006)

    Mr Pearson will have as much success as Piers Ackerman in stopping Labor. I still expect Kevin Rudd to win the next election – with an increased majority. He just has to get back to the grand narrative and abandon the daily news cycle.

  31. Dario why would the Government cop short term heat over something they promised before the election and that people have been waiting for them to get on with?

  32. ruawake – I’ve got a feeling that Lenore is positioning herself for the onslaught/positioning over the garnaut report – journos are just as political in their own territory as the one’s elected in Canberra. The media I don’t trust.

  33. [Dario why would the Government cop short term heat over something they promised before the election and that people have been waiting for them to get on with?]

    Because the media are making sure of it. They won’t be able to keep it up though.

  34. I think the media and the opposition are not too sure what to make of ETS. The Govt has a process, started in opposition.

    Garnaut, then the green paper, then the final Garnaut, then the white paper all the time keeping control of the issue.

    Poor Brenda will be fighting shadows.

  35. Newspoll certainly doesn’t show it as unpopular and with younger people ETS introduction is supported by about 73%.

    On the other hand polls can’t test the opposition policy because there is none.

  36. You know, if Rudd can just stop the constant spin or reduce the over abundance of substance or if he can just work out how to get a message across, he could become a popular leader. Oh wait, he is.

  37. If Rudd is supposedly following the 24 hr news cycle how come it is Nelson & his mate Turnball who are getting their story in the News first without the Gov’t’s balancing comment? And saying the most outrageous and character assassination things? It is the Opposition that seems to me to be obsessed with the short term news cycle. They do not seem to have anything substantial to say about anything of importance.

    This Gov’t have a lot of big things going on at once. It is the media that cannot keep up – perhaps the intellectually challenged reporters can only do one thing at a time. There is plenty of “narrative” if they will only look without their Howardesque glasses.

    Is the Gov’t partly to blame for the distorted messages or is it soley the media?

  39. William, with all due respect, I think Charles is on the money. Domestic politics is now about climate change and how we deal with it, as well as shifting global power, and how we deal with it. And not to put too fine a point on it, we’re buggered if we don’t.
    I think domestic political discourse has just undergone a seismic shift.

  41. HSO I think William was more concerned with the quality of the debate than the topic. Even Peter Martin’s blog got some juvenile comments which is unusual.

  42. Doug,

    The government is partly responsible because it sets the hares flying; e.g., the Asia-Pacific Union. Kevin Rudd would do better to focus on a few key issues and use his position to build the support he needs for the detailed changes he intends to make. He has the support in principle, but he has to take a large majority with him on implementation.

    Let’s learn from Victoria. Before the 1999 election, no matter what the question, Steve Bracks seemed to answer with more police, more nurses and more teachers. Once in office, that is what he delivered. The Victorian Government spent $1.4 billion in capital expenditure on schools in its first two terms. In this term, it is scheduled to spend $1.9 billion. In its next term it will spend, I estimate, $1.6 billion to complete its program to rebuild every school in the state. But you don’t see John Brumby on the TV every day talking about this and the thousand other things his government is doing. However, the voters see the new and rebuilt schools when they drop their children off or go to parent-teacher nights. The facts are on the ground and they work to Labor’s advantage.

    Kevin Rudd has a similar task. He has taken on climate change, tax reform, reform of the federation and an education revolution (which still has a few parts missing). That is the most ambitious agenda of any government I have experienced. He intends to set Australia up for a long-term, prosperous, just and sustainable future. Yet he gets bogged down in the idiocies of Belinda Neal, while the government was paralysed for three (?) days on the carer’s bonus before the budget.

    These thoughts are a little rambling. But I think you will get my point: the government needs to focus on a few big picture items and not be diverted. It certainly should not be throwing extra issues into the mix.

  43. Just a few comments on the Trading Scheme debate.

    The economic trigger of the trading system has been dealt with in many ways by the increasing cost of energy,

    One of the things that seems to have been lost here is what are we trying to do , we are trying to lessen the amount of carbon that we are putting into the AIR. We are not trying to give the shallow libs a great electoral advantage. If the issue is going to be dealt with properly then we need a bypartisan approach. If Rudd said that he is only going to legislate if the Libs supported it in a bi partisan way it would put a lot more pressure back on the Libs, if they didn’t support it then he can just point at them and say, its there fault, (A little bit of reality here, is the Vic senator for family first going to horse trade petrol when its been his biggest issue, no I don’t think so.)

    Back to the politics of the issue, where did the ortodoxy of the trading scheme come from, some free market imbeciles who are now laughing like hyenas. We don’t have a tax for the defence department, we don’t link tabacco tax to hospitals, its a great mistake to make this important issue a easy target for the lobbyists of the big polluters, they have sucked in the conservation movement into thinking that the carbon trading is the answer, if only it was that easy.

    Break the link, spend some of the infrastructure future fund on alternative energy and research and development (a real investment $5b PA) and put the libs in the cross hairs of the decision making process, the conservative media will run and run on the scare campaign until they have done as much damage as possible.

    One last thing, there is no rule book that says that the Libs should be ‘fair or true’ and before we get cranky with the the “I don’t want 5 cents more on my petrol” battlers, they are telling us now how they are going to react, if Rudd and the ALP walk into this one they are not going to last as long as they should.

    Whats the look for MAYO?

    Cheers.

  44. William. I’m not suggesting a tedious exploration of the science of climate change, with or without ice cores, There are other places where people can do that. What I’m suggesting is that having to deal with both climate change and a shift in global politics, has now become the stuff of domestic politics.
    As others have noted, Kevin Rudd has taken on probably the most ambitious mix of policy formulation, any of us have ever seen or know about from history. It’s global in reach, it’s also domestic as it will be played out. He may well choke on it.
    Personally, I hope he doesn’t, as the Opposition haven’t a clue what is confronting us both at the domestic as well as international level, and clearly are going to play populist politics, at every turn.

  48. I reckon Rudd will be able to get the voters who matter on side with this. The majority of people understand that we must act on climate change and of course low to middle income earners will be compensated.

    How ironic!
    – Labor to introduce an ETS with compensations to middle to low income earners, whereas the conservatives introduced a GST with the majority of tax cuts to the rich.
    – Liberal wedged Labor with Tampa, and now Labor to get their wedge revenge with CC.

    As they say, “what goes around, comes around”.

    Damn we just can’t beat Collingwood.

    By the way, The PM is on Insiders tomorrow morning. They should get Bolt to interview him?

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