Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Don’t worry William I’m over it ( arguing climate change science that is). I was curious as to how robust the climate denialists arguments were, found a site where you can argue with a whole church of them at one time. If they could mount a convincing argument it could derail Rudds agenda, nature will only provide two mores summers of evidence before the election.

    In my view Rudds safe, it’s like arguing with creationists, might work in the US, but generally science wins in Australia. What I can’t work out is why they bother, oh well.

  2. Breaking news: Rudd is appearing on INSIDERS tomorrow morning, for the first time in quite a while! I wonder what sort of treatment he’ll get from Cassidy & co?

  3. 423
    MayoFeral Says:
    I’ve still only begun working my way through the Garnaut report, but it seems I misunderstood what Garnaut was saying about Kakadu. Instead of it drying out the problem is going to be it will have too much water as it becomes inundated by the ocean.

    But that presents another problem because Google Earth data indicates much of the northern fridge of the continent is at a/below similar levels, including all of Darwin.

    Depends entirely on how much sea rise we get. Some of Darwin is certainly at risk from rises less than a metre, but most of it is many metres above current sea levels.

    This site gives a good idea of what various levels of sea level rise will do to any part of the world.

    http://flood.firetree.net/

    The main climate change danger to Darwin and the whole northern third of Australia’s coast probably comes from more frequent and intense storms and cyclones.

    And William, apologies for my part in last night’s dust-up. Won’t happen again.

  4. Chris 442
    I agree with what you say to a point.

    The Carer’s thing was certainly not handled well, and probably it could be put down to the Gov’t still coming to grips with what it means to be in Gov’t as opposed to Opposition in regards to how it deals with the media. I do not knopw that Rudd spent much time on the Neal issue but the media(especially the DT) went ballistic. Maybe it is partly because the Media are hungry for News and they are not getting much feed from the Gov’t, and hence they make up their own or at least make mountains out of molehills to sell papers. This is the opposite of Rudd supposedly been obsessed with the short term news cycle. He is not feeding them enough!

    I would say Fuelwatch was not one of those. I feel sure Rudd made sure that it would play up well so as to educate the public on the fact the prices are Global and local gov’t’s cannot really control it. He did succeed in that and that will pay its dividends as time goes on. The short term collateral negatives would have been far less if that Leak had not occurred and given the papers an excuse for drama.

    I thought the Asia Pacific was OK as it could be an important concept in our region. Rudd could not work out the details as it could be taken amiss diplomatically and really the right thing was to float the idea and see what the responses would be. Again that did work well as the PM’s in the other countries reacted positively. But the press at home were not as receptive.

    I think maybe the reality of this matter is in the way Rudd thinks. I believe essentially he has a big picture mentality which can very well microscope down to the details but still keep them in context of other details and the bigger issues. To him all the policies he is implementing are inter-related & intertwined and form together the whole picture. To him he is really painting that “whole picture” and is now in the process of painting in the essential basic structure of interwoven policies. As time goes on he will paint in the details as they are developed And so you will get a complete and well developed picture in the next couple of years. It is complex and that is because Gov’t is taking on an ambitious agenda. I do not believe his thinking is linear in the way that the press’ and a lot of the public’s are.

    Now Rudd is doing what comes naturally to him and to him it all hangs together. But the press and many of the public do not see a “narrative” in all this and it seems to them to be ad hoc. Certainly the Opposition do not simply have a clue!

    And to come back to your major point – “Kevin Rudd would do better to focus on a few key issues and use his position to build the support he needs for the detailed changes he intends to make” . He must take account of how the majority of people think and communicate in a way which they can appreciate. Some of the minor issues do not need to be mentioned and the Gov’t needs to be able to slap down the irritating and diverting things like the Carer’s Allowance so they can get back to communicating the major issues and building public support. Not that real work behind the scenes stops when the Press go ballistic on some worthless issue, but the PR becomes paralysed. The Gov’t could also be more judicious in feeding the Press so that any News is on major things, and not allow the Press’ imagination and ignorance to fill in the gaps.

  5. The gall of Bredan Nelson knows no bounds. He now claims the government has lost credibility on climate change because it has been in 7 months and has done nothing. This from a bloke who was in office for nearly 12 years and did bugger all.

  6. Doug,

    I think that is a reasonable analysis. The Belinda Neal thing isn’t Kevin Rudd’s fault. If I were he, I’d be furious that one of the government’s backbenchers had allowed such a saga to be created from a request to move tables.

  7. Gary, I think Nelson is going to outwedge himself, so to speak! It wouldn’t surprise me if a few Liberals break ranks, surely they aren’t all climate change sceptics and short term opportunists?

  8. Gary that can’t be right. Brenda was saying on tonights news that Rudd is moving too quickly on climate change and therefore might get it wrong.

    She would have to be the worst opposition leader of all time!

  9. [I’m one step away from doing a Bryan Palmer at the moment.]

    Please hang tough William! It was just a side discussion that as you saw didn’t last very long. Like it or not, Climate Change IS part of the political discussion in Australia, and just like when the GST came in and discussion turned to ‘how will a birthday cake be taxed’, with CC there will be analysis of what it actually means at a low level and what is happening to the planet.

  10. William please don’t even think it. I know that the journos read this blog, and we love giving it to ’em.

    Nobody takes the US threads seriously – they are a cross between World Championship Wrestling and Days Of Our Lives.

  11. Perhaps Rudd doesn’t see the Asia Pacific Community/Union/whatever as as isolated concept but part of dealing with climate change, too.

    Other than Africa the biggest affects of CC will occur in the Asia-Pacific (A-P) region, both in terms of the magnitude of the effect and the numbers of people affected. The more closely linked we are the greater the chance of co-operation rather than conflict. You only need to look at the EU. How would Europeans have dealt with climate change pre the EU, and especially before 1939? Unfortunately, the current A-P political fault lines are more like Europe of that period than the present day.

  12. I do hope you don’t do a Bryan Palmer, William. I don’t think it’s got quite as bad as the last days at Bryan’s, though I’ve given up on the U.S. threads, I’ve got to say. Also, I don’t know how, up with it you put, at times.
    I was struck today with the somewhat changed tone in the dead tree version of the O.O.. Apart from a very silly paeon to Eddixender, and George M. being quite sensible as usual, the rest of them seemed to be acknowledging the gov’t had taken on a huge task of real reform and that it is enormously complex and fraught. Then on T.V., the image of Rudd visiting the lower reaches of the Murray and engaging with folk there about the import of the river in crisis, was, I thought, a nifty weaving together of the domestic/global message.

  13. Even for the Poisoned One this is bloody ridiculous. I mean, this is really stupid. REALLY stupid.

    What possible point could an article like this have, if not to be just offensive and inflammatory?

    There’s no story. There’s no writing. There’s no political analysis. No balance, or even the attempt of it. Just, “We asked a dumb, pointless, idiotic question that has no answer, therefore proving Rudd has no empathy with the ordinary taxpayer.”

    What will The Dwarf asking Rudd next? Is he going to ride a bicycle to work? Will he grow his own vegetables? Mow his own lawns? Darn his own socks?.. to demonstrate the “common touch” of course. We’ll be reminded Chifley used to walk to work…. in 1949… and that Rudd is “the millionaire Prime Minister” by contrast.

    This is worse than tabloid. Milne has truly descended into the infantile. Gurgling in his humidicrib, Milne’s last few brain cells have gone and there is nothing left but reptilian knee jerk. Total tosser.

  14. dunno that Nelson will last out the three months probationary period, i think this job will probably be a short term project.

  15. good god! i never have read the cane toad, in fact i wouldnt have opened the dwarf’s article if i’d known who wrote it {it wasnt on the banner} they cant dare to be different –they just come out with the same old, same old, my blood pressure is sooo much better now i bypass them.

  16. Piers hasn’t even got his facts right as usual(don’t let the facrs spoil a good story?). I was watching some of Garnaut on Friday and his answer to a reporter’s question was that Australia could not be the leader as others had already done that.

    Anyway the question was poor – who cares who leads the world on this as long as the issue is addressed. I mean it is not the same as baracking for your local football team, nor should it be subject to petty politics. GW is just far too important an issue for that.

  17. There’s no story. There’s no writing. There’s no political analysis. No balance, or even the attempt of it.

    So? What else do you expect from Milne – skill, talent, ability? Not in this lifetime.

    Tom.

  18. One of the better episodes of Insiders I have seen in a while. Some decent comment, balanced praise and bagging of the government and opposition, and no loony moronic statements (i.e. no Milne, Bolt or Akerman on the panel). I’m sure it won’t last of course…

  19. Glad to see Milne’s article was interpreted by Cassidy in the way it should have been. A completely schoolboy-level, idea-free spray that told us nothing, made no point and contributed zero to any relevant debate.

    Sad to see Paul Bongiorno taking up the issue. I didn’t see it, but I hope it was tongue in cheek. Nevertheless, to give this kind of cheap blather any credibility at all is a mistake in my mind.

    Rudd on Insiders… I got the feeling that the Riot Act may have been read to Cassidy over this. Make it serious and I’ll go on. No Pies, no Bolt, and definitely no Milne to smirk their way through the post-mortem. If you behave, you might get me on again.

  20. Dario: I agree with you, the only jarring note for me was Chris Ullmann, surely the ABC could have found a better chief political correspondent than that bloke?
    Cassidy gave Rudd a fair interview, I’ll concede that LOL

  21. You wonder why the Poisoned Dwarf is held in such high esteem! He’s little more than a barracker for the Liberal Party, and we know his wife works for Crosby Textor. And Glen Milne, we’ll never forget the sight of you pissed off your face at the Walkleys, assaulting Stephen Maine.

  22. Milne clearly has something over either Murdoch, or one of the senior editors.

    If any one of the rest of us produced that kind of rubbish in whatever job we do, we’d be given a warning & then sacked for a repeat offence.

  23. Just a thought… interesting that Rudd was grilled on the coming ETS: question after question.

    But the quotable quote from this morning’s interview was about some 6 year old kid posing naked for a photo.

    This isn’t a comment on the triviality of the Media. You’d expect them to be interested in a good child pornography beat-up. But this is because there was little else said in the interview.

    It does sort of add weight to the complaint of journalists, commentators (and a lot of bloggers, me included) that Rudd so far is reticent to set out the basic concept of an ETS; and somewhat justifies Cassidy’s basic complaint that Rudd didn’t answer his question, which was a pretty simple one: “Could you outline for us how an ETS will work?”.

    One detects a reluctance for Rudd to bite the bullet and tell us that in the sort term there is going to be a period of adjustment where not all the outcomes will be good for everybody: business or private individuals. I’ve seen this in other areas too – carers’ bonuses, pension increases, Fuel Watch… a reluctance to step up and be frank with the public.

    I’m beginning to suspect that Rudd rather fancies that big lead he has over Nelson and will do almost anything – or more accurately, often does nothing – to jeopardize it.

    Ultimately, when the bad news has to be delivered, there are going to be a lot of “I told you so’s” floating around. Yes, from the likes of Pies and Milne and Shanahan, but also from serious commentators with no particular axe to grind except getting to the bottom of Rudd’s policy wonk jargonese and informing the public inthe process.

    I can understand that Rudd doesn’t want to go off half-cocked and cruel the ground for more considered information and judgement once Garnaut is digested. But I also think that there is, on his part, a kind of vain pride in him that likes being “Mr. 65%”. The only thins is that if he fritters his big lead away in dodging the big issues, always deferring them to a later date, or a committee report to come, when the time comes to spend some of his political capital, there may not be sufficient left to spend in order to do the job right. You can plan and plan and plan, frittering away your money on consultants, modelling, architects, committees and so on, but you always have to have enough in reserve to actually begin building, or even the begin demolition before you re-build.

    I’m not saying it’s sure to happen, but I do worry that Rudd’s spin doctoring could get in the way of the Big Message. He needs to be more forthright,to include the people in the debate, not keep putting of making a decision until the community is split into thousands of factions all warring with each other, and none of them agreeing with the government’s approach… for the simple reason that they don’t have a clue what the government’s approach really is and therefore they have to keep guessing (or should I say, speculating in a mood of environmental and economic panic).

    I watched that interview this morning and got precisely zero out of it except that Rudd doesn’t like pictures of naked 6 year olds. He evaded qwuite reasonable questions, smothering them in blather and public service-speak. In many ways, he’s his own worst enemy in this area.

  24. Well I am a bit bemused by the comments being made about the US`thread having just done a quick check in here. While they may be justified criticisms
    the sound of shattering glass is echoing loudly.

  25. BB – what I took out of it this a.m. was that whatever he says will be blown up and, maybe, the wrong way. We all know there is going to be some form of pain and he has promised compensation in some way but isn’t it better to wait another 10 days or so until the Green Paper comes out so that we can actually have it in black and white.
    Wouldn’t it be improper for him to steal Penny Wong’s thunder while they are still preparing it.
    I am not adverse to him enjoying his moment in the sun – he worked darn hard to oust the other mob. I would like him to have a decent speech writer tho – he should give away writing his own stuff.
    My kids in PS say they have not worked harder and are really enjoying it. I will give him his moment. Always enjoy your comments.

  26. Another great analysis by the Possum. And with these conclusions, it actually gives me hope that Climate Change might have a lot more bi partisanship than we would normally expect or hope.

    I just hope the mathematics of demography will produce the right result.

    “Looking back over all of the charts, the voters the Coalition are losing aren’t being replaced by younger voters, to the point where it’s reducing the total Coalition primary vote. If the trends that have been happening for the last 21 years continue for the next decade, by 2018 thereabouts, the ALP will simply become unbeatable with TPP results coming in with a an expected demographic floor of around 55%

    So the Coalition has to start appealing to much younger demographics or they will likely find themselves in permanent opposition.

    Something for them to keep in mind if they start trying to play political games with the emissions trading system and climate change – issues with large support in the younger demographics.”

    http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/07/06/the-coalitions%e2%80%99-demographic-train-wreck/#comments

  27. I did not see Insiders this morning although I was going to because the PM was on. But to follow up what Sue H said I can remember Q&A about a month ago. In response to a question from the crowd about petrol prices he said that the Gov’t had done all they could. Then Tony Jones said Oh you mean in relation to the budget. And Rudd said yes, and then went to great trouble to explain that it was Global forces that dictated the cost of fuel. I distinctly remember him saying that it does not mean that you throw up your hands (and give in) but the Gov’t would continue to work on the margins to keep the price as low as possible.

    Guess what the media(& of course Opposition said)- that Rudd had done all he could and where was the promise of keeping fuel prices low made at the election? Of course there was no such promise.

    My point is that he gets misrepresented. I did not think he could have been clearer that night but yet the media for reasons best known to itself misrepresented him. I can understand him being cautious.

    It would be best to wait for the Green Paper that Penny Wong was presenting to get the full story together and where it is harder to take something out of context just for an eye catching headline.

  28. BB – a bit harsh. I think the following reports will be the basis on which such “educating of the masses” will take place. There is not that much longer to wait. All will be revealed.

  29. Has anyone heard from Greg Hunt since June 28th? I can find no mention of him since then in any media.

    Is he in a cupboard, locked in Brenda’s office, has Malcolm kidnapped him?

    Why is the Shadow Environment Minister missing in action?

  30. 🙂 Wombat.

    My history master, at the English public (private) boys school I spent too many unhappy years, was really called Mike Hunt.

    But I think that “Mike” should really be in the spotlight, given Garnaut, COAG, the lower lakes, the CSIRO report on climate change and agriculture.

    Maybe it is Brenda that is micro-managing the media?

  31. 489
    Gary Bruce Says:
    BB – a bit harsh. I think the following reports will be the basis on which such “educating of the masses” will take place. There is not that much longer to wait. All will be revealed.

    Agree. It has all been preliminary, preparatory groundwork so far from the government, as it should be for the most important and far reaching public policy introduced in decades. The main game is about to start. The real question is what is the opposition (with their shitty track record) going to do? My bet is they will indulge in some outraged grandstanding nitpicking around the edges, but will still largely buckle and go along with it, because for both scientific and political reasons they don’t really have a choice, and they know it.

  32. Red Wombat, Just Me…

    I’d be suitably chastened and repent my sin of Questioning The Rudd, but there’s something in the man I’m not sure of.

    Try as I might, I can’t understand a word he’s saying, most of the time. In one ear, out the other. Frankly, he speaks in gobbledeegook. And so do Penny Wong and a lot of the other ministers.

    Now I have a certain faith, but note the operative word: “Faith”. Faith needs a booster shot every now and again, unless it’s blind. And I’m not the “Blind Faith” type of chap.

    I cannot believe that in God’s Wonderful World Full Of Little Green Apples, it is impossible for Rudd or one of his ministers to craft an introductory primer into Global Warming and the ETS in words of three syllables or less, and, when asked a direct question by the likes of Cassidy (who youse must admit was on his best behavior today, and good on him), to bloody-welll answer it without sounding like a bad impersonation of Sir Humphrey Applebey.

    The general Mob out there is yearning to support the government, if only they had a clue what was going on. So far there is nothing.: I mean literally, not a clue.

    Just a straightforward canvassing of the options in response to Cassidy’s question would have sufficed. I know, I know, the ferals at what Possum calls the “shallow end of the Media Pool” would have a field day, but Rudd’s political capital is starting to flake off at the edges. I’m afraid that when the time comes he won’t have enough capital in the bank to complete the construction.

    Today’s conversation devoled down to a squalid, populist discussion of 6 year olds sitting naked and looking provocative. It should have been about the big issues, not this artsy-fartsy pap. That’s tabloid stuff, more suitable to an outraged Daily Telegraph front page than a sober discussion of all the options.

    You can’t expect the public to have the same faith in Rudd and his government that is (touchingly) shown here. So far, I personally have been disappointed in Rudd: caving in to this, amendments on the fly to that. I sustain myself in hoping that he’ll get it right on the night. That’s faith, but it needs a boost every now and again, and boosts are so far few and far between.

    However whatever my personal point of view, I can’t expect the community at large to share that optimism.

    Keep it simple Mr. Rudd. Level with the doubters. Bugger the polls. Stand up for something.

  33. Does anyone know if the Federal Govt. makes any revenue from coal? I know states charge royalties.

    Just asking. 🙂

  34. Using a figure of $40 per tonne for CO2 it seems to me that fuel would rise by about 7 cents a litre for average motorists. If we offset this by the double dipping GST (brought in by the rodent) on excise of 3.8 cents that can surely be politically palatable with low income compensation. Especially if a large chunk is devoted to research into alternatives.

  35. Does anybody have any views on how the impending implosion of the State Labor Govt in NSW will play out in Canberra?

  36. Why introduce a tax only to hand it back, people don’t respond as well to the stick as they do the carrot. Its just unbelievable that the chattering classes are all swallowing the one measure that will give the libs the edge. “Popularism equals the narrowing”. Lemming like.
    Put the Libs back in the gun, there is a whole generation who are really pissed off with our attitudes to climate change. One political cycle means very little, Imagine at the next election if Brendan/Malcolm are saying that they can’t support a coherant reponse because they don’t want a 7c increase in taxes on fuel! Suddenly it becomes thier problem.
    I make the broader point again, why are people falling for the old trick of a specific tax to address a negative issue. We DONT tax people to support unpopular measures, why make an exception for this. Here’s a thought just imagine what Andrew Bolt is doing right now.
    “ALP prepares to drive AUS economy into the dark. Those of us from planet earth should start to worry about now. After the price of oil doubling the shadow Greens in the ALP are now suggesting a 5% increase in fuel prices etc etc etc.There is simply no real evidence that “Climate Change” is anything more than a strange fiction of the twisted minds of the Rome Club and a few bankrupt scientist short on fundingetc etc etc.

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