Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Yes, (West) Virginia …
I don’t think it matter who wins the Repugs are shot.
Old Kirri,
The difference between you and I sir, is that I act out of love and you act out of hate.
Hatred of Howard, Hatred of Bush, Hatred of Clinton, Hatred of Gordon Brown. etc Hatred of anyone who disagrees with your myopic world view. If there is any doubt one only need read your disparaging comments about Ron and others on this blog.
I am a realist, but a realist imbued with a love of our shared common humanity. We are all flawed vessels but still beautiful at the same time.
Go in peace,
EStJ
Here is the evidance:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-State-Primaries-Rdp.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
They were routed in Mississippi. If anyone was unsure of how the election was going to go this provides the evidence. That makes it a hat trick of very safe Repug seats that the Democrates have one. This was the safest and most redneck of them all. It looks like the Confederates will finally loose the war.
Triton 98
That site demonstrates what I referring to about with data trawling. Many statements about political history are meaningless.
There are five states that have had primaries so far where the winning party always won that state. They are Louisiana, Tennesse, Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas. HRC won 3 and BHO won two. Either could get up after they won the primary in their respective states and say (for eg) “I won Louisiana by 15%. The voters have shown that I am the best person to win Louisiana for the Democrat Party in the general election. And history shows us that if you win Louisiana, you win the White House!”
When Ron is backing Hillary Clinton, I know she’s in even more trouble!
A stunning victory for the Democrats tonight in Mississippi! Unless things drastically change in the next 6 months, the Republicans are headed for meltdown in November.
And there is probably going to be another by election, this time in a seat that is marginal. Due to a Republican being caught having a child with his girlfriend. The Repugs will be forced to spend even more money the haven’t got. Nothing like a moralist being caught with his pants down! Hee Hee Hee!
The longest political suicide note ever written, in black dripping ink, by the Democrats. If Obama is not a political coward, he would have come and fought like hell in WV because WV has the demographic that he needs to win over as in November.
Instead, he ran away and got trashed by someone who is supposed to be dead and buried. So the lame excuse now is that “Oh, we didn’t campaign in WV”. And for someone who is dead and buried, the EVs is still looking very stiffed.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
May 13 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 280 McCain 241 Ties 17
May 13 – Electoral Votes: Obama 237 McCain 290 Ties 11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Chris B, reality check for you: the Democratic candidate who won the special election in Mississippi is pro-life, supporter of home schooling, has an A+ rating from the gun lobby and is an economic conservative. Put simply, he is well to the right of about 90% of the Democrats in Congress and arguably even further to the right of McCain.
The Republicans are going to cop a hiding in the Senate (they’ll lose at least 4) and an even bigger hiding in the House. But to suggest its “game over” for McCain is laughable. Have a look at the polls lately? (and yes I have allowed for all the usual caveats regarding opinion polls, not least of all in a country like the US). How do you explain McCain’s strong polling in a number of states that have not voted GOP since 1988? The GOP attack on race and experience hasn’t even started. Whatever they come up with will make those Willie Horton ads look like being slapped across the face with a wet piece of lettuce
Americans think their nation is on the wrong track and want change. But they don’t want a Mondale, McGovern or even a Kerry as POTUS. That’s what the Democrats never seem to be able to get into their thick heads.
This election is well and truly up for grabs and if Barack prevails (which, incidentally, would not disappoint me in the slightest) it will be by a 2 or 3 percent margin max.
ChrisB @ 103:
Sorry, but I think that’s a rather stupid way to describe an election result in Mississippi in 2008.
Superdelegate update …
DNC Awais Khaleel (WI) and DNC Lauren Wolfe (MI) endorse Obama.
The DCW website is showing the count at 284/270 advantage Obama (but I think they have a temporary glitch and numbers should actually be 285/270). Also, the news from Chris B at 103 shift the number of delegates required to win the nomination by 0.5 to 2025.
102
Edward StJohn
Sorry?
You’re coming on all saintly and it does not compute.
We all know your type Eddy, passive aggresive and a serial abuser.
This is the holier than thou ‘passive’ side.
Catrina summed you up well I thought.
Four letters, starts with ‘d’ ends with ‘k’
Remember, I’m the ‘plagiarist’ you went at with snide comments and greasy innuendo? And then pulled the stunt that I’d called you a sexual deviant, when I had not.
So don’t come the raw prawn with me Eddy.
You have not changed, not even one of your spots.
109
Callum
I think it’s called poetic licence Callum, better ask to see it!
But it is a crushing blow to the Repuglies, as they spent lots of dough and even sent Darth Vader (aka Cheney) down there.
That worked, huh?
KR @ 112.
My problem with that sort of rhetoric is that it evidences a sort of moral triumphalism that does the progressive side of politics no favours with the general electorate.
Hillary 167,554 votes Obama 71,925
WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates despite the uninformed opinion here and a State strong in manufacture.
The manufacturing employment base is why the State represents a traditional American worker and therefore why it mostly votes Democrat.
Having the edication base listed above and the manufacturing employment mix , naturally its people will not vote for an “elitist Liberal” like Obama whether he is black or white.
Such typical “labor voters” will vote for a centre labor type person like Hillary offering real solutions not dreamy drivel unrelated to their lives.
The 67% vote for Hillary proves this despite the racism comments of some Obamabots and why the SD’s should dismiss Obama
108 Chris from Edgecliff Reality check for you. This has seat has never been won by a Democrat. As I said, its a redneck seat, its the third very safe seat the Democrats have one. The polls will change once the election proper starts. Here are the issues that will win the election in a landslide. Not completely in order.
1. Its the economy stupid (Bill Clinton). A recession to be precise.
2. The Iraq war.
3. Hurricane Katrina
4. The Repugs a flat broke.
5. The Democrats are filthy rich.
6. The massive talent on the Democrats side. Barrack. Hillary. Bill and Al Gore.
7. The Democrats have mastered the Internet The Repugs haven’t.
8. The Dumbest/most unpopular president ever.
Shall I go on?
Re. my comment at 110 – the DCW numbers do not include Lauren because she is representing MI (and we all know that for the moment MI doesn’t count). As such – the DCW count is correct and the Obama lead on super delegates is 13.5 (or 20.5 after adding the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 290 (284+6)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
109 Callum. Then you don’t understand American politics.
He who celebrates in May cries in November.
The Confenderates still don’t think they lost the war. I am refering to the November election where the Repugs may lose
118 Edward StJohn. Want to put some money on that? I should get very good odds.
119 Chris B Got interupted and forgot to finish.
Repugs may lose the abilty to filibuster. Thus huge changes can finally be made in the USA.
“WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates”
Are sure about that ron/Ron?
‘All this brings me to Hillary Clinton’s proud assertion that she is the candidate of the uneducated white worker. It is of course, precisely why she’s likely to win the West Virginia primary today by a lopsided 75:25 or maybe a 60:40 margin. One news program I watched about the West Virginia primary yesterday included an interview with a Clinton supporter, in that state, an older woman who said she couldn’t vote for Obama “because he’s a Muslim.” The reporter responded, “Well, for the record, you know he says he’s a Christian.” The woman replied, “Well I don’t believe him.” In West Virginia, one in four residents doesn’t have a high school diploma. That compares to one in five nationally. I’m guessing this woman was one of that one in four. Only one in seven West Virginians holds a bachelor’s degree, compared with one in four nationally.’
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/lindorff/096
Personally i think Obama’s weakness amoungst the white working class is clearly exadurated. The fact about most of those “OLDER” White voters that vote Hillary, is that half of them are female. Most of them prefer Hillary because she is a woman. I have no problem with this but it is a shame that when Obama’s performace against Hillary, with white voters is compaired, the numbers are not put in that context.
Actually Chris B, Jamie Lloyd Whitten held the district for the Democratic Party from 1941 to 1993 and is the longest serving US Representative ever.
109 Callum To put you in the picture. Between the 1930’s and now the Republicans and the Democrats switched sides. The Ku Klux Klan, which had/has connections with the Confederate army and the Southern Baptists, used to assasinate Republicans on a regular basis. Now they belong to the Republican party, and laws to do with civil liberties have not been able to be passed because of the conservative south. Among many other issues.
124 Al According to an article I read on the Votemaster (I think), it was never held by the Repugs.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Something interesting in the exit polls is that 62% of the poll respondents think that Clinton is going to win in November. Of the poll respondents that voted for Clinton, 90% of Clinton voters think that Clinton is going to win the nomination.
One could conclude that voters in WV have difficulty with basic arithmetic.
I may stand to be corrected. But I think thats where I read it.
In fact I am sure because he gave it an R10+ rating. Which means its extremely safe. The other two seats the Democrats won were R7+. One of them had a swing of 25%.
ChrisB,
I am interested only in debate and discussion not vulgar contests about money.
Kirri
I am sorry that you feel so angry! Hope tomorrow is a better day for you!
If only the seat of Gippsland would swing 25%
130 Edward StJohn Why on earth do you think I am angry? All I am doing is stating fact.
I dont think you are angry Chris B, i was referring to poor old Kirri his post at 111 was indicative of unresolved anger.
Sorry I misread that I did’t see Kirri.
ESJ, in the words of the late, great David McComb, you have an “aphorism for every occasion”
Chris B, for sheer amusement value, please indulge me a prediction for November in terms of percentage and electoral college. If you want to take a crash course in presidential politics first, then by all means.
Also, I may stand corrected, but I think you’ll find that the seat won by the Democrats tonight was previously held up until 1994 when it was lost in the Newt-slide
As for Democratic filibuster-proof majorities, simply having the numbers in not enough. I can think of at least 5 Democrat Senators who are more conservative than some of their Republican colleagues – I’m thinking along the lines of Tester, Webb, Casey, Johnson and Lieberman, the self-proclaimed “Independent Democrat”. The fact is the current Senate is quite possibly the most conservative ever – dividing Senators into Republicans and Democrats is very artificial I’m afraid
Myself @ 113 re KR @ 112.
Just to clarify, I meant Chris B’s rhetoric, not your own KR. I generally find your commentary to be good natured.
127
Catrina
Unlike the butterfly farmers of Pollbludgerdom, eh?
before people think i am picking fights, my ‘aphorism for every occasion’ comment was in reference to esj @ 118
135 Chris from Edgecliff Spot on with the fillibuster proof. The only time that has ever happened in the mid sixties, Democrats crossed the floor to block civil rights issues.
I can’t find where I read it. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that it was an R+10
Repug seat, here is a bit of the history.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
136 Callum Can you expalin why fact is rhetoric?
No problems Callum, no confusion this end.
(Except that I’m doing a re-instal on one computer and using another! LOL)
140 Spell check. explain.
Chris from E re 135
But you would have to concede it appears to be a very large wave building against the Republicans?
It really is Obama’s to lose – assuming he does the sane thing and tacks right when he is confirmed as the nominee even with the racism factor it will be hard to take him down as a liberal in the current climate?
136 Callum To help your confusion.
Fact
A thing that has actually happened or that is really true.
Rhetoric
Artificial eloquence; language that is showy and elaborate but largely empty of clear ideas or sincere emotion.
If you read your history you will find I am quoting fact.
Arvo Bludgers,
leanin’ on yer bloody picks and shovels again eh and only a ton or so’s comments to date about this Meme Altering victory for Senator Clinton.
Wouldn’t work in an iron lung, you lot!
Tues May 13:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=A9G_RnjzXipIWSQAcRkDwLAF
“Clinton is now an “understudy candidate,” waiting in the wings to see if Obama catches the flu.”
Or more likely, hoping beyond hype that The Kid cops a swiftboat amidships or a shiv between the ribs in a Beltway backstreet at midnight.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191300/
Apart from her age, Hillary has many of the “qualities” of another famous American “understudy” by the name of Eve Harrington. Obi will need to have his back watched. Closely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_About_Eve
Interestingly, for the first time this campaign, CBet appear to have not closed their books while the voters of WV were exercising their democratic right. And there has been bubkes change in their market since yesterday. Gee whiz, wonder what this zippo board odds shift all means? It’s making my brain hurt. Perhaps the market is trying to communicate something. Do you have a take on this at all, Ron?
The Kid……………1.75
McBombster…….2.75
Brutusina…………6.00, but if you want to punt her, Dyno can recommend far juicier odds elsewhere:)
Thanx, Harry at 6.
The Dana Milbank WaPo piece at 93 gets my nod for link du jour so far, Pancho. Lovely to see the literary jetsom of Mark Twain still afloat on the mighty MSM.
Wonderfully wicked and truly vicious, Milbank is The Nasty American writ large.
Edgecliff Chris, are you still feeling confident about you wager on Alaska?
143 Edward StJohn What did I miss? That’s what I have been saying all along.
Oddly, one of the best articles I’ve read in a while about the next 6 months in Obama strategy, was written by a sports business writer:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=09c585ec-fda3-4138-83ad-7ea97fc5219a
Hey, I guess he understands the economics of horse-flesh, and so maybe human flesh ain’t that different? HRC supporters will complain about the opening paras which imply that the media have jumped to her various changes in tactical posture as her position got more desperate.
But the fundamental point he makes is sound: Obama has already gathered a large block of votes with an anomalous coalition of blacks, left-wing whites, anti-war voters of all political persuasions and first-time voters (esp the young).
Will his campaign try to do the very difficult and bring socially conservative rural whites and Hispanics into his fold; or will he target the difficult-but-winnable states mentioned in the article, and concede that states dominated by the above demographics (inc Florida), are beyond him?
The advantage he has over Kerry is that he can win places where Kerry was always a dead duck, while there has been little or no talk of him losing any heartland seats that Gore/Kerry carried by any margin.
Obama may well be the right candidate for the times. If he can’t win some 2004 losing states, McCain has too little margin for error. Trying to protect states as diverse as Colarado, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, New Mexico, Montana and the Carolinas as well as the established battleground of Ohio, all of which Obama has the resources to go after, leaves little time and cash for trying to get back some 2004 Kerry states like Wisconsin or a big prize like Michigan or Pennsylvania. While North and South Dakota are miniscule and unlikely prizes, the idea that a Repub candidate would have to devote resources to protecting them, is almost surreal. And (barring campaigning disaster which would make them irrelevant anyway) Obama takes off the table the chances of McCain winning back Washington state or Oregon.
Whereas for Clinton, her campaign would have been far more ‘traditional Democratic heartland (which includes ‘conservative Democrat’ white states like WV), plus Ohio and Florida’. While the prevailing conditions are more favourable in 2008, that approach didn’t work so well in 2004.
The outstanding question would be whether McCain would say vs Obama: ‘The picture as a whole looks iffy if we just try to defend the 2004 battlements; if you’re going to gamble, might as well gamble big and go down swinging’, and devote v substantial resources to win California, with a VP candidate selected to assist?
ESJ, there is a tsunami heading for the Republicans in Congress but I think McCain remains in reasonably good shape. I cannot ignore the lessons of recent electoral history in the US, not least of all the following:
1. it is very, very rare for any Democrats to surpass the 50% mark since World War 2 (not even Clinton could do it and Carter from memory was 50.1%);
2. there has only been one bona-fide Democrat landslide since 1940 and that was the 1964, induced by truly remarkable ingredients
2. when the Democrats win the electoral college, it is with a conservative Southerner at the top of the ticket;
3. Liberals are unelectable as POTUS;
4. (sadly) in the U.S. race has a huge impact and who turns up to vote and for who
Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama. Sure, many will change their mind. But if a few thousand stand their ground in states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa and Colarado, it will be decisive in a way similar to the Nader effect in 2000
In response to SimonH @ 147, I think HRC would have built a traditional Democratic model of victory – do well in the mid-west, sweep the NE and Mid-Atlantic and take (at least) 2 out of 3 states on the West Coast. She would have brought WV, KY, AK, MO and TN more into play than Obama, whilst probably conceding CO (and the Dakotas….).
She also would have more or less guaranteed Democratic wins in OH and PA, whilst making FL a state that leans Democratic rather than its current state (where it leans Republican when Obama v McCain). She would also likely have been stronger in NH. Of course, she’s was likely to do worse in the Mountain West (Colorado, NM, Nevada, etc), but she would probably still have won (at worst) CA, HI and WA – more than enough considering the votes she’s likely to have got in the East.
Obama is likely to lead to a much more unusual electoral map. He puts more Republican states on the map (think Virginia, NC, ND, NE, IN), but he puts quite a few traditional Democratic state in the “at risk” category – for example, he is still underperforming Clinton in important states like PA, OH, FL and MO. So Obama as a Democratic nominee leads to a more interesting campaign (it becomes more of a 50 state campaign), but it has more risks for the Democrats. Personally, I don’t think the Dems can win this election if they give up OH, PA and FL. Obama has to win one of these to have a real chance in November.
148 Chris from Edgecliff. This election will break all those rules.