Westpoll: 54-46 to Labor in WA

The first poll of Western Australian state voting intention since the Troy Buswell chair-sniffing revelation and resulting spill motion has not produced the Liberal meltdown that might have been expected. In fact, the Westpoll survey shows the Liberals narrowing the gap since March: Labor is down 5 per cent on the primary vote to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 38 per cent, while the two-party gap has reduced from 56-44 to 54-46 (the paper says 56 to 46: the primary vote suggests it’s the first part of this that’s wrong). However, it should be noted that Westpoll surveys have small samples (412 respondents in this case) and high volatility, and that the size of Labor’s lead last time was a little hard to credit. The poll also tells us that only 36 per cent support an early election against 57 per cent opposed.

This puts the public at odds with Nationals leader Brendon Grylls, who last week called for the dissolution of a parliament rendered “completely dysfunctional” by the major parties’ internal squabbles. It was intriguing to hear such sentiments from the leader of a party most thought would be crippled with the imminent introduction of one-vote one-value. Clearly the party is very confident of gaining dividends from the Liberals’ difficulties, most probably in the seats of Moore and Blackwood-Stirling. The latter is the successor seat to Warren-Blackwood, currently held by previous Liberal leader Paul Omodei. Omodei is sufficiently concerned about the Nationals threat that he has abandoned the seat to pursue a berth in the upper house South West region. However, he was initially denied a winnable spot on the ticket, then given one following an appeal, then denied it again by the party’s state conference. His initial reaction to the latter decision was to declare he was quitting the party, but he has instead chosen to pursue a further appeal, with talk of legal action if it isn’t upheld. Omodei has denied reports that he has been threatening to run against Troy Buswell as an independent in his seat of Vasse if he is not accommodated.

As always, it hasn’t entirely been one-way traffic: today The West Australian reports that former Health Minister Bob Kucera has quit the ALP and will contest the election as an independent, complaining the government has become “arrogant and complacent”. It so happens that the 63-year-old back-bencher has also been overlooked for preselection. His own seat of Yokine having been abolished, he has not yet decided which of its successor seats he plans to contest: Mt Lawley, where the party has nominated former West Australian deputy editor Karen Brown, and Nollamara, where they have nominated Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official Janine Freeman.

Malcolm MacKerras’s post-redistribution electoral pendulum was published in The Australian on Saturday: this is not available online, but you can read the accompanying article.

UPDATE: That Mackerras pendulum courtesy of Mumble.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

68 comments on “Westpoll: 54-46 to Labor in WA”

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  1. [?!?!?!?…..From what I hear the party didnt have a say in the matter!!]

    Well, the local ballots for West Swan & Swan Hills didn’t look too flash for the eventual victors 🙂 In West Swan, Rita Safiotti only got 4 votes 🙂

  2. William,

    Can you delete my post 49 as it is a duplicate of Mr Orange’s Post 50, even though I posted it first, but his post expresses it better 🙂

  3. [Rita Safiotti ]

    That should be Saffioti, and it’s a bit rich of John D’Orazio saying that there were no “Ethnic” representation in the pre-selection – Rita is a bloody “Ethnic”, just not a “New Right” one 🙂

  4. Having a look at that pendulum suggests if Labor continues to poll as well as they have, they could end up with 40-odd seats out of 59. Dawesville and Scarborough are winnable. So is Kalamunda.

  5. In regards to the polling of Female/Male, i have heard the 18->36 female range is an absolute disaster for the Libs. The polling in general is so bad that noone wants to unseat Buswell, because they reckon its a recipe to being “the guy who lead the party into the abyss”

  6. [In regards to the polling of Female/Male, i have heard the 18->36 female range is an absolute disaster for the Libs. The polling in general is so bad that noone wants to unseat Buswell, because they reckon its a recipe to being “the guy who lead the party into the abyss”]

    It would be interesting to see the WA Newspoll in June to see how dire it really is for the Libs, especially as the sample will be larger than Buswell’s Family and friends and staffers 🙂

  7. Have heard that Carpenter went looking far and wide for candidates (although maybe not that far if he’s been picking up journo mates!). Tallentire was from Cons Council – but why put him in Gosnells – its hardly friendly territory for a green-thumb like him. Anyway, now Cons Councils has lost their last two Directors to politics – Siewert to the Greens, Tallentire to the ALP.

    Not so sure Libs polling will be completely dire, but Carpenter is doing a good job distancing himself from old-ALP hacks and mates. Lots of new faces, most pollies from 90’s (and even first Gallop term) seem to have been turned over – might be a problem with experience loss, but not from freshness.

  8. [Lots of new faces, most pollies from 90’s (and even first Gallop term) seem to have been turned over – might be a problem with experience loss, but not from freshness.]

    I note D’Orazio and Michelle Roberts are playing the race and crippled card over the demotion of Batong Pham from East Metro. But the New Right weren’t complete losers, Vincent Cantania did get pre-selected for Fred Riebling’s seat.

  9. [But the New Right weren’t complete losers, Vincent Cantania did get pre-selected for Fred Riebling’s seat.]

    From what I understand Vince Catania is aligned with the Centre these days…

  10. Hi Antony and William

    I know its rather late in this thread, but I was wondering can you please explain the implications of when the WA state election is called upon the duration of the Legislative Assembley?

    I have heard that under one scenario the elected Govt will get an over 4 years term, and under another scenario they will only get 3 years. Is this true?

  12. If the election is held before September, and the government is silly enough to have the first Parliamentary sitting before 1 September, then the term of the Legislative Assembly is backdated to January this year. This means the next WA Legislative Asembly election would have to be held in the first three months of 2012, giving the government a term of under 3.5 years. It also means the Assmbly election must be held out of step with the next Council election, which by fixed terms would still not be due until early 2013.

    Needless to say, if the government does go to a very early election, you can be absolutely sure it will not use a date that forces it to face Parliament before 1 September. And if for some unkown reason the government did call an election and did sit before 1 September, I’m happy to say it would be one of the most politically stupid things ever.

  13. Thanks for the feedback Antony, I was trying to make sense of the WAEC fact sheet to no avail…..much appreciated.

  15. These polls tend to skew what could be happening in WA outside metropolitan Perth. While I acknowledge that the Nationals are the big losers with regard to the new redistribution on a so called fair one vote one value principle. The fact that the Liberals have changed leaders three or four times since the last election(Barlett/Birney/Omondei/Buswell)voters in country WA who have always been loyal to the Liberals must be asking questions on which conservative party is the most stable. The seats i’ll be watching will be Moore and Eyre. In Moore Grant Woodlands will fight in a notional Liberal seat but this guy surprised everyone last time by winning Former Liberal Premier Sir David Brands seat for the Nationals. In Eyre Susie Williams who incites controvery over a coon issue should go down will in this country electorate where people are tired of Liberal Party political correctness.

  16. These polls tend to skew what could be happening in WA outside metropolitan Perth. While I acknowledge that the Nationals are the big losers with regard to the new redistribution on a so called fair one vote one value principle. The fact that the Liberals have changed leaders three or four times since the last election(Barlett/Birney/Omondei/Buswell)voters in country WA who have always been loyal to the Liberals must be asking questions on which conservative party is the most stable. The seats i’ll be watching will be Moore and Eyre. In Moore Grant Woodlands will fight in a notional Liberal seat but this guy surprised everyone last time by winning Former Liberal Premier Sir David Brands seat for the Nationals. In Eyre Susie Williams who incites controvery over a coon issue should go down will in this country electorate where people are tired of Liberal Party political correctness.

  17. Paul said “…the Nationals are the big losers with regard to the new redistribution on a so called fair one vote one value principle”

    I’ve never got the whole notion of one vote one value not being fair. To my mind it’s always reeked of some group wanting to overcome their political handicap of not actually having many supporters – leading to pleas of electoral affirmative action.

    Is it the nature of the new boundaries that make you dubious Paul or something else?

    Honest question.

  18. As a Queenslander Possum Comitatus I grew up under a zonal system that cared for Regional communities as I come from Toowoomba originally. When one vote one value came into force in Queensland under the Goss Labor Government Regional people up and down the coast were told that it would disenfranise the so called cow cockies west of the Great divide. The lastest redistribution in Queensland abolishes one electorate in North Queensland and another in central queensland and in WA only 14 of the 59 seats is outside Metro Perth and its immediate southern strip. This system tends to divide states that are large and could see the rise of seperate states movements.

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