Yes, (West) Virginia …

Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,725 comments on “Yes, (West) Virginia …”

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  1. KR, I dozed off earlier…must have been Turnbull’s budget-droning. I was going to say, the signs in the US are not good. Are you aware of the site ? The site is run by ECRI, forecasters who claim a perfect record. They reckon they have never wrongly called a recession in the US. They are predicting a recession this year.

  2. just perused the last page of the previous WV thread.

    what a good read. sometimes PB excels….sometimes it doesn’t.

    tomorrow…well who knows who could show up.

    special shout out to EC for #1431

  3. But after all what does it matter – its only 5 electoral college votes, surely with some of that audacity of hope Obama will make up these votes with very likely prospects such as North Carolina or Georgia or maybe even Texas.

    Is this the beginning of the end for the false consciousness Comrade Bob Bollard?

  4. 3

    yes, BO (good initials for an Obama supporter!), ECRI are the most respected outfit in the business, and they’ve been pointing this way for some time.

    And in that Bloomberg article, you just know this isn’t going to end pretty. Inflation is on the move while they’re holding interest rates under water and pumping printed money into the banking system like there’s no tomorrow.

    The ‘free market’ failed big time, and now the smartest guys in the room are desperately trying to bail it out while telling everyone that the system works just fine, just needs a little ‘help’.


  5. ESJ #10 If you want a Marxist explanation of what’s happening I’d go with Gramsci rather than Engels in this case:
    “When the old world is dying and the new is yet to be born, many morbid symptoms prevail.”
    PS: I ain’t no comrade of yours so please desist from flinging that appellation in my direction.

  6. Obama- 1591.5 PDs, 283 SDs, total of 1874.5 with 150 needed for 2024.5

    Clinton – 1425.5 PDs, 270.5 SDs, total of 1696 with 328.5 needed for 2024.5

    Of course this end goal will probably change when MI and FL are sorted out, and in the short term if Childers wins in Mississippi today 2025 becomes the finish line again. For a while.

  7. Mornin’ Bludgers,

    The word for today is GRIM – and I don’t mean a fairy tale.

    If you’re an Obama supporter then the polls are suggesting that Hillary’s win today will be a monumental pasting. GRIM.

    Moreover it will put a spring in the step of the Hillary crowd who will spend the rest of the day and night crowing about how this proves the Kid is unelectable. GRIM.

    On the other side, Obama’s SD lead over Hillary has extended overnight from 8 yesterday to 11 today. GRIM for RHC.

    And Obama’s national average lead over Hillary has been clipped slightly overnight from 5.4 to 5.1.

  8. Pancho and what am I alleged to have tipped? Examine the record there are some here who are quite the hedgers. You of course have been strident and up front in your support from the get go which I acknowledge.

    Comrade Bob, I chuckled at your list the other night, an interesting response, of course I dont intend to defend every massacre and act of evil committed in history which is obviously designed to give you the retort that neither should you for communism but the essential point is under capitalism you might get dictators, famines etc whereas under communism you always get dictators and famines, which is why Kronstadt is a sore point no doubt – it proves Marxism only runs on dictatorship but is the original sin Kronstadt or the shutting down of the Constituent Assembly by old V.I.L?

    Old Kirri – Keep on smiling old son!

  9. It’s interesting to note that back on 5 Feb the GOP ran a state convention in WV to elect 18 delegates to the National Convention. Today’s primary will elect a further 9. Back in February, the results were:

    Huckabee 567 52% 18
    Romney 521 47% 0
    McCain 12 1% 0
    Paul 0 0% 0

    It will be interesting to see if the ‘Anyone But McCain’ vote is higher today than the recent averages of 25%.

  10. FG – That is interesting. And it would not help Clinton’s narrative spin if they end up voting for 2 non-candidates in that odd part of the world.

  11. 18
    Edward StJohn

    Don’t worry about that (not-so-fast) Eddy, every time I see another Bludger put you in your place I’m smiling, even more than usual.

  12. So CNN hasn’t bothered to wait for any actual votes. Why didn’t they call it last week? The count was 0 – 0 then too.

  13. I’m going to back ESJ on this one. I can’t recall him posting an incorrect prediction. He may have been wishful, possibly even misguided, in some of his support for the Rodent, but he never said Howie would win.

    I’m reading a novel about Charlemagne fighting the Moors by Calvino. The knights on either side can’t speak each other’s language. This is a problem because, when they clash, they abuse each other. The gravity of the insult hurled determines how much damage they need to inflict on the other side to restore their pride. So the solution is to have translators who get called over to the two fighting knights to interpret for them, so they know whether to kill each other or just wound. Somehow, it reminded me of Pollbludger. ๐Ÿ™‚

  14. Diogenes, I realise that there is much stirring in the chap’s posts, but I do recall early (but not necessarily ongoing) tips for both Howie and Hillary. But I do like the parable.

  15. “Mountain Momma, Take Me Home” LOL

    With exit polls showing a two thirds majority in favour of the gas tax holiday, you kind of get a feel for the education level of West Virginia, eh?

    Plunkin’ for Hillary!

  16. So Hillary’s going on, (yeeeha!), but what does she want? She knows she cannot win this nomination without divine intervention,(or a klansman’s aim), so what will she be bargaining for?

    Anyone who thinks she doesn’t know she’s finished hasn’t been listening to her stump speeches closely. Yesterday she was telling the nice folks of WV that no matter who the nominee was, they’d be all coming together to beat the Republicans in November. She’s been putting out these signals lately, and it lets everyone know she’s in a postion to bring Obama support. She’ll bargain with it, for sure.

    But the question remains, what does she want? (Apart from her $20m hole filled!)

  17. She wants to raise enough money for the campaign to pay back her loans. The moment she pulls out the campaign isn’t allowed to raise money.

  18. I know exit polls are already out, but stuff the margin; I’m prediction 19 delegates to HRC, 9 to BHO for a net gain of 10 pledged delegates.

    I’m basing this on three Congressional Districts each with 6 delegates. It’s unlikely that HRC will win these districts 5-1 (75% of the vote to hit that), but more likely she’ll get them all 4-2 (somewhere between 59% and 75%). The 10 At-Large delegates and PLEO will probably split either 6-4 or 7-3 (I lean towards 7-3) giving my delegate prediction.

    So given the current delegate gaps, I reckon it’ll be a net result of no positive change for HRC after today and tomorrow’s superdelegate announcements.

  19. The trouble with that strategy is that it costs more to contest these primaries than she is receiving in donations. So…the longer she stays in, the deeper her hole becomes.

  20. 35
    Ferny Grover

    They spent chicken sh!t in WV, coz they didn’t have to, and besides, the media is much cheaper there.

    So she’ll go on national TV and rattle the tin again, coz you know, the mountain momma is comin’ back home, and she’ll get a fresh flood of sucker’s money.

    But beyond this game, what does she want? She’s got bargaining power to either bring her weight behind Obama or take her bat and ball and go home.

    Guess we’ll see soon enough.

  21. Interesting poll from Rasmussen.
    The Repugs are seriously on the nose. The Dems more trusted for the economy, government ethics and corruption, national security and the War of Terror.

    BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security. And he says he doesn’t know much about the economy.

  22. 36 KR
    There’s been virtually no speculation coming from the Hillary camp that she’s interested in VP (most of that speculation has come from the press). So what else? Attorney-General? Ambassador to UK? Nah…higher profile – Sec of State?

    One of her camp was saying yesterday that they expect Obama to tank against McCain and Hillary will be lining up again in 2012 where she is ‘certain’ to be nominated.

    Will they ever learn?

  23. Very first results are in and Edwards is receiving 8%. As I suspected he may split some of that there Hillbilly cracker vote, thereby blunting the Clinton Tsunami and stuffing up her “come-back” spin.

  24. 37

    Ah, the national amnesia! I’m sure Obama will recover their memory for them about which side McCain bats for! LOL

    If the Repuglies think they’re going to be running a tough campaign on Obi’s ass, they can expect incoming, ballistic.

  25. More interesting today will be the special election for a congressional seat in Mississippi. The Democrats have a real chance of taking another seat off the Republicans.
    Forget West Virginia: a Hillary win means zero, it won’t change the overall picture.

  26. 41
    Robert Bollard

    Did ya know, Robert, that ‘is daddy worked in a mill?

    Yep, it’s all identity politics and Edwards had a lock on the cracker vote in them thar parts.

  27. 44

    yeah, didn’t Childers miss a majority by a couple of hundred votes first time around?

    Apparently both the RNC and DNC have been spending mega-bucks on this vote!

    Which means the Repugs are sh!tting themselves it will be three in a row, and the grim reaper will be sharpenin’ his scythe for the fall.

  28. I didn’t know Edwards was still on the ballot in WV.
    Obama would be well advised to get Edwards on board his campaign, in some capacity, he’d be a lot of use campaigning for the Democrats in states like West Virginia, and Edwards would make an ideal Attorney General.

  29. Kirribilli Removals: Yes mate, you’re correct! Childers nearly got over 50% on the first vote, there were two other Democrats in the field that day, so if the combined Democrat vote goes to him, he beats the Republican bloke!
    Republicans this year have already lost supposedly safe seats in Illinois and Louisiana, a loss in supposedly very red state Mississippi would tend to suggest they’ll get their arses kicked well and truly in November.

  30. We don’t talk about Edwards much here but his early withdrawal after SC was a huge boost for Obama. Obama really scored the trifecta in SC. He got a big win on PDs, Edwards pulled out and the “block” vote shifted to him 90% after being 60%. And he has Bill to thank for it.

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