Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Yes, (West) Virginia …
The local WV pro-Clinton moron politician who said, ‘We can win this thing 80:20. No! 90:10!’, must have pushed Clinton staffers even closer to suicide than they already were.
Once those kind of expectations get out there, a real-life count of votes (currently 62:30 on 2%, but will probably get a bit better for HRC as it goes) is always going to be a disappointment rather than a triumph.
The real news of the day is: No withdrawal. No retreat. No surrender. And how is that ‘draft John Kerry as compromise candidate’ campaign going, anyhoo?
Which America is he in ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws
KR #45
Through the mansions of fear
Through the mansions of pain
I watched my Daddy walk to the mill in the rain
And now I’m a corporate lawyer you see
My Daddy might win me the odd primary
(With apologies to Bruce Springsteen)
Robert, I get the sense that Clinton won’t try the ‘I’m coming back’ line today. I think she understands it will just annoy the bigwigs out there who are gently trying to turn everybodys focus to the general election and don’t need her implying that she will prolong the battle any further than it needs to be.
I get the feeling that she just wants to play it out, and throw in the towel either on May 20 or June 3 – and would prefer to do it before Dean and Pelosi step in with their public humiliating ‘game over’ endorsements. Which they might be tempted to do if she tries to push the rhetoric too far.
I imagine the Dems would prefer, in order of preference, for the battle to end:
1. With Hillary conceding
2. Superdelegates ending it after June 3
3. Superdelegates ending it before she concedes
4. The battle ending with a convention vote.
That would be their preference anyway.
WV is one area where the ‘cultural politics’ explanation for the Republican rise has something to it, Bush carried counties that voted for Mondale in 1984. Still Califronia has many more votes than WV and cultural politics has made it safe Democrat. Pragmatically it is a worthwhile swap. Still would you want a Democratic party without the working class?
Washington Post is calling WV for Huckabee
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/wv/?jump=d
Max,
I reckon that’s just a graphic bug. The listing of candidates is different at the bottom of the page to that at the top (when showing the Republican results).
GR: Interesting points. However, even though BO ain’t the working class candidate, if he wins in November it will be in part because he wins enough of the working class vote. And how much is enough?
All of the bangin’ on about whites, blacks, ‘hard-working’ (-class) Americans, those without college degrees, ‘elites’ etc, can become a demographers’ game and obscure the game: you have to win more than 50% of the vote in enough states to have a majority of convention delegates. How you patch them together it is up to you. So far he’s shown the ability to patch ’em together okay.
For example, he’ll win Oregon handily which has a negligible black population. While it ain’t WV, I also don’t think it’s because OR is a state comprised entirely of latte-sipping elites, as the cruder stereotypes would have it.
Al at 34
I’m thinking a delegate advantage of 10-12 for Clinton from WV.
No Bug – it is called for Huckabee cos he already has 18 WV delegates from the last round. Hence he is already the winner there with only 9 more up for grabs.
Al,
The Republican WV convention was actually held in February – Huckabee unsurprisingly won pretty easily, and was consequently awarded 18 delegates. Only 9 delegates are awarded today, so he has already ‘won’ the state.
I was mucking about before. Need something to keep me amused
🙂
Ahh, that makes sense then Pancho. McCain will pick up the 9 from today although. Interesting to see Romney with 5% and Guiliani with another 3%. That’s 25% of Republican voters today voting against McCain, and 20% aren’t even voting for a candidate in the race.
Lowndes coming in for MS-01 Special Election. Davis won it 58-41 on April 22, but so far breaking 59-41 to Childers this time. Good signs for Childers. Childers up 53-47 at the moment with 153/462 precincts counted.
The victory speech in WV is now done and dusted:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/watching-west-virginia/
The precis? “Even though I know I can’t win, I’m going to keep going, simply because I’ve come this far.”
The irony? The message in her speech was ‘every vote must be counted, everyone must have their say’ before any conclusions are reached about the Democratic nominee. She delivered that victory speech with a big 12% of the vote in WV counted. The 10 o’clock news won’t wait forever, you know.
SimonH,
I love how you guys love democracy so much, you just want it to stop.
“8:17 PM. In its polite, if somewhat perfunctory tone as well as in its substance, this really really sounds like a speech made by a woman with her eyes on the Vice Presidency.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/clinton-wins-west-virginia.html
GG @ 65:
1. ‘You guys’? Is there some conspiracy I’m a part of, that even I’m not aware of?
2. I’ve already expressed my view that I don’t want it to stop, now that we’re just getting to the funny/pathetic/bathetic bit. This is surely more entertaining that November can be.
3. I hope you’re sending a stern letter to the Edwards, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Richardson camps protesting at their ugly and unDemocratic decision to withdraw from the race, merely because they had inadequate funds, inadequate support and no chance of winning the nomination. Why won’t they let the people have their say?
Clinton logic:
This race must continue because every state must vote and every vote must count. Democracy is paramount. The people must speak.
But after that
The Party must trash the result of the peoples votes and give the nomination to me me me.
The public’s vote means everything
The public’s vote means nothing
The Clinton camp spent like drunken sailors in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana in a last grasp at winning the nomination. It failed.
They spent money they didn’t have. Now the campaign has a debt of $20Million of which $11Million is the Clintons.
EVERYTHING they do now is aimed at getting as much of that back as possible.
Matt Stoller looks over some recent polling by The Washington Post (sample size 1,122) and finds Six Signs Democrats are Going to Romp.
No. 6 is interesting.
The question and results in the poll:
Type, Comfortable, Uncomfortable
A Woman President, 84, 16
An African-American President, 88, 12
A new 72 year old President, 60, 39
People make their own calls about staying in a race or withdrawing. That is their choice. You know, democracy in action.
I am delighted that Hillary will continue all the way to the convention and push Obama to win the nomination on the floor of the convention. One thing for sure, Obama has missed every opportunity to take Hillary out. The record number of participants in the Democratic Election process is a good thing not an inconvenience.
Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.
Why don’t you just enjoy the excitement of the Democratic process instead of reveliing in the too easy negativity of the haughty cynic?
GG – When was the last time the Dems had a black candidate?
Interesting differences emerging between the Clinton Campaign and Obama Campaign websites.
The first thing you get on the Clinton site is a request for money, and once you click past that to get to the actual campaign site – a good third of the screen is taken up with requests for a donation to keep the fight going. Over on the Obama site the top item in the roiling lost of topics is a link to the Red Cross and a call to the American public to help out disaster victims. Here we are still in a primary race and Obama is stepping up and showing national leadership and putting his internet machine into play for the Red Cross.
[Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.]
This is a really interesting stat.
One would assume that this is caused by an unusually long primary season yes? Normally, with the nomination tied up by now, wouldn’t a state such as West Virginia (which votes late in the primary season) usually only have one person to vote for?
Of course, this a incorrect if this isn’t an ‘unusually long’ nomination process. I’m not sure either way (given i know very little about the history of the process).
Hillary is no longer campaigning for the Presidency of the USA.
She is simply revenue raising and horse trading.
Chris Matthews:
“It’s almost like she’s the Al Sharpton of white people.”
Or more importantly, when was the last time the Democratic primary campaign wasn’t a “dead rubber” by the time WV came around?
We’re up to 2025 as the delegates to win now. Childers has been declared the winner in MS-01, making the Congressional District blue for the first time since 1995.
Things are really looking ugly for the GOP in November. Three big special election losses now.
Pancho,
Probably Jesse Jackson?
So?
Al @ 77,
Not sure whether this is the last time, but I know it was definitely important when JFK won the Dem nomination in 1960.
Leading up to the 2000 and 2004 election the accepted spread of core supporters was:
Democrats 44%
Republicans 43%
now the core support stands at:
Democrats 51%
Republicans 38%
The GOP is in a world of hurt.
Why all this Hillary hatred? Obama would make a better president but either would be a huge improvement on Bush, Hillary has much support but Obama has slightly more. Any serious presidential candidate has to be ruthless, ambitious and have a huge ego.
MS-1 Childers is pretty conservative he would make Hillary look like ultra-left.
I couldn’t see this posted anywhere else, but
http://www.nbc4i.com/midwest/cmh/politics.apx.-content-articles-CMH-2008-05-13-0029.html
GG – sorry, I meant candidate for President, as in nominee. My garble. My badly made point is that history is being made on one front, so I see no reason for it to be pushed on others. But I think the WV as ‘rubber stamp’ argument is more salient.
Re Childers – woohoo! I guess those in the deep south are really terrified by that liberal Obama.
GG @ 77: I am enjoying the process. Enormously. Even though it now has an appeal that I wouldn’t quite call “excitement”. You enjoy your way, and I’ll enjoy my way: that’s democracy in action!
We wouldn’t want any of the too-easy negativity of the haughty critic creeping in here, would we? Whatever wise person said way back in March that “The only roaring around here is from the Obama Lambs and Ding Dongs as they relentlessly try to convince themselves and each other that Hillary is finsihed [sic]”, they certainly weren’t haughty or negative.
Oh, by the way, nice recycling of a key Hillary talking-point. Only you got it wrong: the official talking-point is that no Democratic candidate has won the Presidential election without carrying WV since 1916. One small problem with the thesis that doesn’t require much delving into ancient history: if Gore had won (or for the pedants, been officially ruled to have won) Florida in 2000, and Kerry had won Ohio in 2004, WV would have been relevant to the result how exactly?
Looking ahead ….
With WV done and dusted Obama will pick up around 8 of the states pledged delegates, putting him just 25 pledged delegates away from the holding the majority. We have Kentucky and Oregon in one week – and these two states represent 5x anything the West Virgina can offer in terms of delegate numbers and its here that Obama puts the final lock on the nomination. He should pick up more than 42 pledged delegates, placing him as undisputed winner of the pledged delegate race. He currently needs about 150 delegates to take the nomination by the numbers and by this time next week that will be down to 100 just from pledged delegates from today and next week.
I expect super delegates to continue endorsements of Obama over the coming week, and in the process a number of defections. By the end of next week I’m guessing Obama will be about 70 delegates away from clinching the deal. What will be interesting to watch is how the end-game plays out. Obama can pick up another 30 odd pledged delegates in Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico – which means that he really only needs 40 super delegates to close the deal.
GG @ 71
“Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.”
While this statement is undoubtedly true, as you are always correct, it really is just an example of post hoc data trawling by Hillary to find any straw to cling to. If you look at data from enough angles and permutations, you can always find something to fit your theory.
Panch,
A real cynic might argue that given the possibility/likelihood of a Democratic victory at the end of the year, why is the party indulging in a social engineering experiment by having to choose between a black candidate and a woman? Why not stick with a tried and true (white rich guy) candidate?
History doesn’t run to a timetable.
88 GG
I belive that cynic’s name is Adam and the candidate is Gore!
GG – true. But maybe the groundswell that puts the party in a strong position is the same force that has offered a black guy and a woman. Intra-party reform is overdue and Washington money not holding all the cards and being able to direct things as it has seems promising from here.
Geoff @ 82: A fair point, I think, to call ixnay on whatever Hillary-hatred might be around. Completely true that Obama does have a big streak of ruthlessness, ambition and ego in him– or he would never have got to where he is.
I think the Hillary-baiting is in part a reaction (or over-reaction) to the long-time writings of a small group of hardcore Hillary-supporters/ Obama-loathers on the site, for whom anything which might be viewed as an assertion of fact in another forum (e.g. “Hillary can’t win”) qualifies the writer as an ‘Obamabot’ who not only politically supports Obama, but also believes that their guy can do no wrong and is in cahoots with all Obama supporters. (See GG’s “you guys” reference at #65.)
As is appropriate for a psephological website, I try to keep my contributions to assessing matters of the ballot-box. My opinions about who, e.g., has the better healthcare policy, aren’t terribly relevant; my opinion about whose healthcare policy will fly better with the voters, may be. In truth, there aren’t clear lines and personal political persuasion will often creep in to some extent; but I do think there are dozens of better-suited websites if people want a straight-up political debate. The kind of ‘HRC is a lying cow’, ‘Obama is a no-policies demagogue’ debate that things occasionally descend into, adds nothing to what PB is here to do.
SimonH,
My point then and my point now is that the contest is still ongoing. If you go back further, you will probably find even earlier examples of PBers declaring the race completed. And all manner of putrid anti Hillary comments are a feature of this blog. That I use acerbic bouquets of banter to occaissionally pierce the Obama supporters’ hubrication is neither here nor there.
It’s mostly colour Simon! Granted some colours are annoying…a little more from WP if you’ll indulge me:
“Customer: “That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not half an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it being tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.”
Pet-shop owner: “Well, he’s, he’s, ah, probably pining for the fiords.”
2:57 p.m., Yeager Airport, Charleston, W.Va.: A steep descent brings Clinton’s plane to Charleston’s hilltop airport. After an appropriate wait, she steps from the plane and pretends to wave to a crowd of supporters; in fact, she is waving to 10 photographers underneath the airplane’s wing. She pretends to spot an old friend in the crowd, points and gives another wave; in fact, she was waving at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/13/AR2008051302862.html?hpid=topnews
Ixnay and amscray were used widely in “The Three Stooges” shorts
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ixnay
Apt SimonH.
Hillary Clinton, declaring “this race isn’t over yet,” West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary. Any non partisan psephologist knows these Democrats are a pre condition to win POTUS
71% Count , Hillary 65% to Obama 28% is decisive Once there are no black voters (who have always voted 80% Democrat historically) , Hillary’s advantages over Obama become obvious & as her greater electability
93 Pancho
classic stuff
I’ve no doubt these types of things happen all the time, and with all candidates, but they do show how narrow the view of the MSM really is, and how their relevance is rapidly eroded as it’s power is misappropriated on a daily basis.
That modern politics panders to this charade is even more telling.
95
Ron Says: “West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary.”
Huh? Did you just like…miss the last 12 weeks or something?
A nice page here I think. It shows state by state results of presidential elections 1972-2004 and 2008 Democratic nomination results in one concise table.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_results_president_1972_2004.htm
Anyhoo, enough of the navel gazing and on with why we’re here:
66-27 to HRC in WV with 76% of booths reporting. No reason to think those proportions will change significantly. (HRC trending upwards and O downwards from something like 60-31 in very early counting, but not enough votes left to provide significantly more bounce.) While 2 counties haven’t yet reported any results, safe to say that HRC will win every single county. In Jefferson County, a true geographic outlier hung out on the far NE-rn tip of the state, she fell over the line 49:46 in by far the closest contest.
McCain only just fell over the prestigious 75% mark, against effectively no opposition. (I know that Ron Paul has never pulled out, but you might as well when you finish 3rd in a 2-horse race and get half the vote of a non-contestant.) Could someone who could be bothered more than me, say whether an unopposed candidate has ever done this poorly in GOP primaries before, this deep into the calendar? It’s not just the fact that it’s May– it’s also that his last real opposition dropped out months ago.
GG @ 92: If you mean the contest is ongoing merely because one candidate has not formally conceded: a football match is still ongoing if one side is up by 5 goals 20 minutes into the last quarter; but commentators who say “it’s all over” are employing a little artistic license based on their judgment that in the time available, it is not realistic for the opposition to make up the deficit. Who but a too-easily-negative pedant would complain that they were technically wrong?
And others make “putrid… comments”. You make “acerbic bouquets of banter”.
I think you just rested your own case, dude.