After yesterday’s North Carolina landslide and Indiana cliffhanger, most commentators have upgraded Barack Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination from likely to (almost) certain. The next stage in the contest, assuming it gets that far, is next week’s primary for West Virginia, at which 28 delegates will be elected through a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats.
And, dearest doppelgangette at #1248:
“the Obama supporters have retreated”
Nope.
“the Obamabot Generals sullen in defeat have withdrawn”
But there’s still a perky private here with numerous axes of non-evil awaiting a good grind.
“the stronger Obamabots verbally slayed”
With all respect doppelthing, you’ve never slayed anything with those verbals. Of course, if you’d said “verbally sludged”, you might have a case.
Ron, though I’m certain it is completely unintentional, your advocacy – if that’s the word – also permits us to count you as an Obamanaut. You sway opinion in much the same way that Mark Latham convinced so many of us to vote for John Howard.
Ron at 1248
Don’t you worry about those nasty people Ron – I’m here and I’ll take care of you.
*twinkle*
Catrina, I think Ron takes a lot of pleasure in his solitary struggle against the forces of evil. I am reminded of an old bloke who used to carry an “A-frame” placard up and down Barrack Street. He declared that protein was the source of evil in the world and called on the mytified public to recant. I wonder what he would have made of blogging.
mystified too
food for thought: credit turmoil easing?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an2VNHoxmJpY&refer=home
Blindoptimist @ 1256:
Maybe – optimistic news about the TED spread.
But there’s always another elephant in the room, like
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2008/05/09/us_credit_card_debt_mounting/2435/
Once the Your-House-Is-An-ATM thing goes belly-up, credit cards are the last gasp before foreclosure . . .
(L) Won, yes, consumer debt is a chronic problem in the US. The world is full of paradoxes: the Chinese and Japanese save to excess; Americans spend like there is tomorrow. The US economy is vulnerable, which makes it all the more surprising when they manage to skate through, time and again…
no tomorrow
Blindoptimist@1258:
But the thing about skating through is that it works really well until it doesn’t anymore, and no-one knows when that point is reached until it has already happened.
And of course there is always a tomorrow – unsustainable consumer spending will eventually result in dismal outcomes, whether a currency collapse or impossible interest rates or that almost forgotten 1970s spectre called stagflation.
An interesting and perhaps salutory reminder before us gaudy flutterbyes get too excited about the next elite US pres (black, mum on food stamps = elite, in some desperate twistings).
But we’re OK, we’ve got that never-ending resources boom, right? (I’m too young to remember the last Australian never-ending resources boom, the one from the 1960s and early ’70s, but I have a feeling that might have unaccountably ended). Won’t happen this time, of course. We have a new paradigm. Conditions have fundamentally changed, and all that old accumulated wisdom is now outdated (cf the dot com boom, tulips, etc etc).
blindoptimist, I must confess that I have been impressed with their solidarity – but its almost painful to watch – the outcome is known unless we are subscribing to bolt of lightning scenarios and such. I think The Finnigans have a better take on this when earlier today I ready thought a set of surrender conditions which for the moment we have not addressed. For the most part these included:
* New politics
* Judgement
* Character
* Experience
* Brings Unity
* Candidate for all races
* Cultural connected
While I’ve left of the last satanic item which really wasn’t a evaluation point, the remainder are all reasonable topics for discussion. Both Finns and Ron seem to share the idea that Obama, his character, and his potential presidency are defined by Rev. Wright. Personally I think the Wright thing demonstrated positive content in all of these areas – new politics in that he didn’t jettison Wright at the politically expedient moment, but instead responded with an open and frank discussion of race in America. It would be fair to call in question his judgement on this and I think there are points on both sides of the argument. For me at the end of the day any detraction we can draw on the judgement front is equally offset by the loyalty and integrity he has demonstrated in the same process (and yes, I know the gang of three are going rail me on that point – but whatever, we are all allowed our individual opinions). On the experience thing, I figure Evil Empire are really focussing on the ‘junior’ attribute as related to his senate experience and are choosing to ignore the bigger picture of his life, his effective utilization of ‘current politics’ to establish himself, and his brilliant demonstration of operational leadership though the primary campaign. On the ‘candidate for all the people’, ‘unity’, and ‘cultural connection’ – for me aside from dealing with US military intervention and the domestic economy, the ‘unity’ stuff is a non-issues – but that’s just my take because for me this this is about much more than domestic issues in the USA – its about world history in the making.
Hawaii Superdelegate Dolly Strazar Endorses Barack Obama
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBslb
The raw Obama lead is now 6.5 (or 14.5 after applying the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 284 (277+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Catrina @ 1261:
The 3-Gangs focus on Wright is fascinating (you know, like slaters are fascinating) but I think it’s an obsession that betrays a misunderstanding of media cycles. It happened once, the MSM went predictably feral, BHO responded with that speech (and that piece of rhetoric, on scratchy youtube, was what finally turned me from either-Dem-is fine into a card-carrying butterfly).
Then he kept winning.
Then there was Wright 2 – Attention Deficit Syndrome, which had the Hannity Right in a world-class self-frothing lather and BHO wins again.
There will be a Wright 3 and Wright 4 and he’ll be in constant rotation on Fox (I do admire the GTA series joke about Weasel TV), but that is subject to ye olde Iron Law of Diminishing Returns.
We (and the Seppo voters) have seen your old stuff. Got anything new?
And they’ve already flagged ‘junior’. A brave trope to try when the bloke you’re selling is The Pensioner. But try it they will, in endless repetition. I don’t reckon that dog will hunt either, but we’ll know in 6 months.
U.S. Senator Daniel Akaka (HI) Endorses Barack Obama
http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-sen-akakas-endorsement/
The raw Obama lead is now 7.5 (or 15.5 after applying the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 285 (278+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Idaho Democratic Party Chair DNC R. Keith Roark (ID) for Obama
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBs3B
The raw Obama lead is now 8.5 (or 16.5 after applying the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 286 (279+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
#1265 C
I’m finally going to ask the question that’s been nagging at me for days: Who is the half a delegate that Hillary has, and is he healthy enough to attend the convention?
Triton at 1266
The convention is want of a better expression – a big party. If your a small state or territory and you only have a handful of delegates, its kind of a shame because that means that only a handful get to go to the party and have a good time. To get around this problem some of the territories have divided the voting rights of the delegates in half, and doubled the number of delegates. This means that twice as many people get to go to the party. Anyway, each delegate gets to vote as they want, as such, when counting up totals and stuff, you end up with this half a delegate running around looking for its other half in a part of several thousand people.
Democracy in action.
Sterling work Catrina, it’s great to see, first thing in the morning, the freshly minted Supers for Obama. Thanks for keeping us so up to date on the night shift.
Puce sardines to you!
KR at 1268
And from me to you …
🙂
Is it safe to come out now? Is Don(key) Quixote still flailing madly at windmills and then declaring them vanquished???
Don’t worry Ferny- after my promise at 1253 he’s been as quiet as mouse!
as a mouse
(but I know, you figure that already)
Morning Bludgers,
Some movement on RCP today. Our ace reporter on the spot, Catrina, has as always, kept us posted with SD endorsements as they happen. RCP now has Obama leading by 7, up from a led of 4 yesterday.
The only other major movement is in the national average lead with Obama stretching his lead from 2.7 yesterday to 4.3 today. This is largely due to the two most recent tracking polls below:
Gallup Tracking 05/09 – 05/11 1319 V 50 43 Obama +7.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/07 – 05/10 900 LV 52 42 Obama +10.0
Meanwhile, over on Slate, Hillary is up to her neck in it as the Deathwatch plunges her down another half a point to 1.6. Dinner’s almost ready for that circling shark.
WV is looking like an amazingly glorious sunset for Hillary. Will she bow out? Slate muses:
“Right now, the question is no longer who has won the Democratic nomination. It’s how the loser chooses to exit. As cops like to say, we can do this the easy way or the hard way. Depending on which way Clinton wants to go, West Virginia, which votes tomorrow, could mean one of two things. Either Clinton seizes on it as an excuse to stay in the race and compete with Obama in Kentucky and Oregon and Montana and Puerto Rico until she has to be euthanized on the track. Or she goes out on a high note. The latter option is looking more and more attractive as it becomes clear that the longer she bruises Obama, the more she’ll have to atone for it in the general.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191194/
DISCLAIMER: Of course, none of the above data has any relevance to anything because Hillary is clearly more electable than Obama.
Ferny Grover at 1273
I just love that shark – circling just a few inches away!
Catrina, Remember what happened in Jaws in just such a situation when the hero was languishing in his sunken boat and the toothy monster was bearing down on him?? KABOOM!!
Can Hillarydo likewise???
Ferney Grover at 1276
Not according to Hillary Clinton supporter Rep. Charles Rangel – he was on CNN earlier basically saying she is done and dusted, and all that is left is for Hillary to put the full stop at the end of the sentence. Now – that’s an interesting parallel isn’t it!
Is it 10% still voting for Ron Paul? They now have their candidate:
‘WASHINGTON — Former Republican Rep. Bob Barr launched a Libertarian Party presidential bid Monday, saying voters are hungry for an alternative to the status quo who would dramatically cut the federal government.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051200889.html?hpid=topnews
Catrina, not everyone is ready to surrender. Over the weekend, Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe was still claiming she’s within “striking distance” of the popular vote. As Slate point out “But that’s only if you count Florida, Michigan, and now Puerto Rico, which doesn’t vote in the general election.”
A walloping win in WV may give them the impetus to try and prove the point.
Heading of to do some shopping, a new recipe to prepare, a photo shoot this afternoon, then I get to play hostess this evening.
🙂
Pancho, it’s closer to 25% voting for ‘anyone but McCain’. The Libertarians may give them an alternative to voice their protest vote. I suspect they’ll draw a similar number from the Right as Nader will from the Left and in the end will be a non event.
Beyond the bruising race, Obama is now showing a clear lead over McCain in PA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq-PA-Statewide-May08.pdf
And in anticipation of the next Krauthammer driven narrative, a couple of pre-emtive strikes here: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/The_candidates_and_the_calendar.html#comments
and here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/would-obama-win-california-primary.html
Looks, again, like the low road:
“Clinton chair tells MSNBC: “We are going through to June 3. I can unequivocally tell you we are in til June 3.” Later says “She is going to be the nominee, she is going to win the general election.”
Also said he believes Clinton will move ahead in popular vote, adds they just purchased media in Oregon, Kentucky.”
http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/12/mcauliffe-in-it-to-win-it-through-june-3/
Remember the movie “Eric the Viking” which starred a couple of the Monty Python guys and Marty Feldman. There’s a scene in it where an island is sinking and, as the castle disappears beneath the waves, the king is sitting on the roof mumbling “It’s not happening….It’s not happening…”.
Clinton’s campaign Chairman, Terry McAuliffe, reminds me of that king. They haven’t learned a thing have they. Still harping on about some mythical chance of getting ahead in the popular vote – when all along the main game was DELEGATES.
This is why they lost – and if Hillary won’t finish this with some dignity then it’s for the SDs to finish it publicly.
g’morning.
(L) Won @ 1260, it does seem like the actions of the central banks have averted chaos, at least for the time being. The US housing market remains in decline, but will bottom out eventually. In the meantime, monetary loosening in the US seems to be enough to keep the economy from deep contraction. Incomes, employment, consumption are all holding up and most of the pain has been felt where it ought to be: on the balance sheets of the money-gods. So far, not as bad as it could be. Even the depreciation of the dollar seems to have been stemmed and a dollar-recovery has been underway for some weeks now.
The big problem is inflation. We have not experienced sustained, stubborn inflation for a long time. Consumer and business expectations and behaviour are premised on low inflation, low interest rates, plentiful credit, strong economic growth and sustained appreciation in asset values. We are now looking at an environment where credit will be available, but harder to get and more expensive, where inflationary expectations have notched up, but where real asset values, income growth and consumption are likely to cool off. The drivers of inflation – strong demand in the world economy, especially from China, India and the petro-economies – are not going to be affected by monetary and fiscal policy in the US or elsewhere.
I don’t think this necessarily spells trouble. But it will provoke adjustments.
An ABC News/Washington Post Poll has just been released
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 – 05/11 620 A 53 41 Obama +12.0
Consequently, RCP has moved Obama’s national average lead over Hillary to 5.4, up from 4.3 this morning.
1285
blindoptimist
Inflation of stuff (ie commodites) and deflation in assets, that’s the US scenario at the moment.
The next big shoe to drop is in the two big mortgage GSE’s, Fannie and Freddie, both woefully undercapitalised while the housing market falls into the endless pit (see first para!)
Whilst the Fed has essentially socialised the mortgage industry, when it implodes, it will be game set and match. Meanwhile the entire credit market is showing the twin peaks of massive household debts and incomes restrained below the level of (real) inflation. (People don’t eat plasma screens).
Holding rates below water (also known as the Greenspan put!) has proven itself a great generator of ‘irrational exuberance’, but like a bipolar patient, I fear this last blow off of manic behaviour will have even more dire consequences than the last.
Anyone thinking ‘it’s over’ is NOT paying attention, and as for the USD rallying, well, it’s all relative, and ultimately, it’s only headed in one direction.
I hear the Zimbabwe currency, denominations of 500,000 even, just blow around in the street and nobody bothers to pick them up, as they’re virtually worthless.
One day, the USD will not be the world’s reserve currency for exactly the same reasons.
Talking the talk, but not walking the walk:
In speeches on the campaign trail, Mr. McCain frequently highlights the threat of climate change in speeches, but he has a mixed record on the environment in the Senate. In recent years he has pushed legislation to curb emissions that contribute to climate change, but he has missed votes on increasing fuel economy standards and has opposed tax breaks meant to encourage alternative energy.
NYT
Last night, our very own Rush Limbaugh tried to goad an argument over what the intellectual underpinning of the Obama administration would be like and would it measure up to Reagan’s ‘neoclassical economics’! (Yes, I kids youse all not! LOL).
The climate boffins call these next few years a ‘defining moment’, where we either get carbon dioxided emmission down to a sustainable level, or see the world that nurtured civilisation morph into something we cannot recognise.
It’s Obama’s phrase too, and although it’s heartening to see that McCain is using it to wedge himself away from Bush (whom he resembles on so many big issues), can he sustain scrutiny of his record?
This issue will fire up the debate away from the drivel and piffle (as Possum calls it), and onto another level entirely.
Morning Scallywags,
My, my, there where some rambunctious Bludgers on the loose last night. Got the slammed door and burnt toast treatment at brekky because of Bludger-induced acute LOL-itis around the midnight hour. Reckon a padded den much favoured by householders who share with rock musicians is on the cards.
Slater-Watch (L) Won & Catrina, that was a superb grave-yard shift. Bloody brilliant!
[1275 Catrina Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:15 am
“Ferny Grover at 1273
I just love that shark – circling just a few inches away!”]
No way it’ll eat her! Afterall, at the end of the day, in the fullness of time, the reality is; professional courtesies still apply. She’s a lawyer ffs!!
(And it’s not just the wit that’s dry around here lately, but Bludgers, please be reassured that there is absolutely no truth to the rumour that Rain is dating El Nino.)
Monday May 12: Robo McBomb-Bomb: Self-Terminator
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Alf0lKwtnlxGyY0QBNp_qDBR_b4F
Struggle no more with the ugly truth that Brutusina is Beltway-connected up the wazoo.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/215/gallery/35856-a36100-t3.html
Mon. May 12: Soon on HBO…… The Tragedy of Entitlement….. Pantsuited Prima Donna misses the switch to vaudeville…….Beltway one day, Catskills the next.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Ah1EiLSeMDn1SH6_V3a9ZKHd.sgF
Pancho at 1283, this is what he HAS to say. You cant have the voters in WV or any subsquent primary thinking Hillary is going to pull out soon, as it may affect the vote. They are trying for the sympathy vote too: look at this brave courageous candidate who stays in the race despite being written off by all the pundits. Wont work of course, because it’s all about the maths, stupid, and they can come up with any calculation they like re: the popular vote but this is all about delegates and the SDs are not coming her way
1287
Kirribilli Removals…
…
I think the apocalypse-on-wall-street vision is overdone, but agree it is too early to tell for sure. I also think there is a dilemma – inflation is a problem, but no-one knows exactly what to do about it. The US-led credit crunch is a problem too, and has caught eveyone’s attention. But in a way, the credit-crunch is easy to deal with.
I think a medical analogy is useful: the credit crunch is like a heart attack. If you don’t deal with it immediately, the victim will go into cardiac arrest and probably die. Well, there has been emergency action and the victim’s heart is still functioning, blood is circulating, oxygen is being delivered to the body and vital signs are stable. It’s been scary to watch, but the panic is abating.
Inflation is more like chronic, disordering disease. It is the diabetes of the economy. Untreated and uncontrolled, it can kill you in a dozen ways, each one as painful and inevitable as the last.
I think the acute care phase is passing, but the global economy needs a lot of attention before it will regain good health.
Stop the presses!! Forget the math!!! Its all about WV!!!
Under pressure from some to withdraw from the race, Clinton insists that West Virginina, where only 28 delegates are at stake, is a key state in the fight for the White House.
She said again Monday that no Democratic candidate since 1916 has gone on to win the White House without first winning West Virginia.
“West Virginia is making a decision that has far-reaching consequences to send a message to people what you expect from your next president,” she said at a stop in Clear Fork, West Virginia.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/12/campaign.wrap/index.html
Surely Hillary isnt that stupid: comparing winning a Dem primary contest to a general election??? Sheer desparation
Pancho et al
Another take on the fundie problem for the Repugs. Evidently, they WANT Obama to win as it would be the Biblical plague that would bring the US back to its senses, something like Sodom and Gomorrah. From that nice man Robert Novak:
“Nevertheless, the word is that some evangelicals dispute Huckabee’s support. One experienced, credible activist in Christian politics who would not let his name be used told me that Huckabee, in personal conversation with him, had embraced the concept that an Obama presidency might be what the American people deserve. That fits what has largely been a fringe position among evangelicals: that the pain of an Obama presidency is in keeping with the Bible’s prophecy.
According to this activist, at the heart of the let-Obama-win movement is longtime Virginia conservative leader Michael Farris — the nation’s leading home-school advocate, who is now chancellor of Patrick Henry College (in Purcellville, Va.) for home-schooled students. Best known politically as the losing Republican candidate for lieutenant governor of Virginia in 1993, Farris is regarded as one of the hardest-edged Christian politicians. He is reported in evangelical circles to promote the biblical justification for an Obama plague-like presidency. ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/11/AR2008051101786.html
Catrina at 1277: “and all that is left is for Hillary to put the full stop at the end of the sentence. Now – that’s an interesting parallel isn’t it!”
Yeah, but she’d better not ask Ron for assistance in that department.
Mein Gott! Loopy Armageddon evangelicals for Obama!
Oh the Rapture! The endless loop of fundamentalists disappearing up their own fundamentals.
It beggars belief just how seriously deranged this little group really are, but maybe we can offer a convert?
Ecky: Last night is still ringing like a bell in my head! Haven’t laughed like that, well, since Grandma…
1261
Catrina Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 2:21 am
blindoptimist, I must confess that I have been impressed with their solidarity – but its almost painful to watch..
…
It’s certainly been painful to read. I think you’re right, this election is about history-in-the-making. There is a wiry strand in American politics, which holds that Governments can’t be trusted and should be kept as small, divided and under-powered as possible. It’s not a bad stand-by when you look at some of the despotic kleptocracies that have come and gone over the decades.
But every now and then, the problems we face are so big that they can only be dealt with by bringing people together and following a common purpose. We are at such a juncture. There’s really not a moment to waste. (At least, the bludgers posting here seem to agree on that much). This calls for uncommon leadership, for great leadership. I hope it is not too much to expect, but it is certainly not too much to appeal for.
Diogenes – I really hope they do cop a shellacking and cut those nutbags out in their subsequent soulsearching.
Also, I hear from other sources that the Huckster is still thereabouts in the #2 stakes as far as the McCain camp is concerned. Though he is getting into punditry as well. And his charisma would probably make McCain look more lifeless than he already does. A few problems there…
The very idea that Huckabee could be the proverbial ‘heartbeat away’ from the Presidency would be enough to destroy McCain’s chances among the non-loony majority.
or it may end up……….. trailing off into irrelevance as Obama starts to take on McCain. HRC will end up a Lilliputian shaking her fist at the sky as giants go about there business.