West Virginia minus one week

After yesterday’s North Carolina landslide and Indiana cliffhanger, most commentators have upgraded Barack Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination from likely to (almost) certain. The next stage in the contest, assuming it gets that far, is next week’s primary for West Virginia, at which 28 delegates will be elected through a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,481 comments on “West Virginia minus one week”

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  1. Indeed, Kirri, it’s as if America’s destiny will be decided by the struggle between the national limbic system and the national cerebrum. And as Dio will confirm, there’s heaps of interconnectedness.

    Btw, Hostess C, how’d the dinner party go tonight?

  2. Robert ,

    Your history story trying to back up your ‘left’ candidate does not stack up

    WV , a State that has voted Democrat for 8 of the past 12 elections because its traditional Labor territory. But you guys don’t accept these indesputable POTUS results of WV Democrat support. NO , try to explain away voters rejection of your lefty ideas by saying its all racist

    NV today given its 8 out 12 POTUS results) favors not suprisingly Hillary another ‘centre’ traditional Democrat against a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t is rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters.

    But what do you do , try & explain why sensible people reject such looney left ideas.

    (Incidently , I did not hear any Obambot complaining about the majority black vote delivering NC to Obama , because they was no racial reasons for their vote then was there)

  3. Edward StJohn at 1430

    Do you have any insights at all to contribute?

    Dorks tend to attack the person as opposed to the comment.


  4. For those talking about Webb for Vp. Just to confuse you !!!

    On the Democratic side of the aisle, Sen. Jim Webb (Va.) also dismissed the idea — but with a grin.

    He dosn’t want it…… or does he? hehe


    He is a little on the old side for me. in 8 years time he will be like 70. His bi partisonship card and military career would go down well. As is the state he is from. Convention though does say economics is more important and governors are better vps for senators. But as carl rove said Obama’s campaign might turn conventional logic on its head. But then again can we trust Carl Rove?? 😛

    My selfishness and stubborness makes me worry about 4-8 years time if obama wins. Why Evan bayh has moved down the list for me. He is a little right wing for my taste as a future president. For those reasons Kathleen Sebelius is my pick two.

  5. Enemy Combatant at 1451

    Aside from a little drama in the kitchen when the tap head separated from the pipe causing a large quantity of water to appear suddenly and I got a little wet in the process – all went well! Linguine with a sauce of resulting from a long bake of tomatoes in balsamic vinegar and brown sugar, server with a salad of rocket, lots of fresh basil, and parmesan cheese.

    Everyone had a good time -good friends, good food, good wine – nothing better!

  6. Scotty a military man is no good for Obama who has very soft National security credentials. Dress some footballers in an armani , and they become even more obvious , better to go for the e/v’s

  7. That’s true, Grace, not quite as large as they were half a century ago, but still too large for a nation to think of itself as civilised. So much remains to be done on that score. Perhaps it’s not too long a bow to draw, but Obama as POTUS, could cause a few significant ripples as far away as a place with red ochre black and white.
    Yet another reason, symbolic though it may be, why Obi’s getting the nod from a majority of Americans is so important.

  8. Ron: “Your history story trying to back up your ‘left’ candidate does not stack up
    WV , a State that has voted Democrat for 8 of the past 12 elections because its traditional Labor territory.”

    WV voted Repug in the last two elections despite the fact that both were narrow victories for Bush the lesser. My guess is that the other 2 were for Reagan. How does this in anyway disprove my argument?
    BTW you really want to take a breather on your occasional red baiting. It’s not that it offends me (in some ways I find it rather quaint). But you’re doing yourself a disservice – self caricature is rarely a fruitful exercise, comrade.

    Now, to finish this off I should really find an apt quote from Marx or Lenin, just to set your juices going. But all I can think of is a line from Trotsky which sums up the central problem of those who are arguing that Hillary still has a chance:
    “If it wasn’t for the snow and the police, one could walk naked in Moscow in the wintertime.”

  9. “Everyone had a good time -good friends, good food, good wine – nothing better!”

    That’s fantastico Catrina, wouldn’t be a hungry hermit for quids:)

    G’night gang, here’s to Obi holding HRC to no more than 20 points!

  10. Speaking of Hillary in WV, what is it with her?

    I swear she all but got out the banjo and plunked her way through a few bars of the Deliverance theme! You could hear it in her voice and the mountain swagger she adopted. She almost broke into a square dance, I kid you not.

    Obi, in the clip I saw, was his usual old self.

    Someone has to do a collected characters of Hillary video…it would be a real hoot (nanny)!

  11. KR….stock markets tending downwards today in the US, perhaps because…

    “April retail sales, excluding autos, rose 0.5%, which topped the median estimate that called for growth of 0.2%. This growth was not caused from an increase in gasoline sales, as gas station sales declined 0.4% in April. Auto sales, however, were a weak point, as retail sales fell 0.2% when including autos.” (briefing.com)
    This is a round-about way of saying consumers are spending less on autos and gas and more on basics at Walmart….tough times in America.

  12. 1465

    It’s the beginning of a complete change in behaviour right across the country, and a complete change in the basis of their economy. The borrow and binge thing is kaput, and the ‘creative’ finance industry is going to shrink to a vestige of its former glory.

    The last quarters GDP numbers, (much heralded because it did not have an actual minus sign!) were held up on inventory growth.

    If those items aren’t being bought, and it looks like they ain’t, then dust off your minus signs.

    You can feel a very cold chill blowing across the US, eh?

  13. Robert

    ‘your occasional red baiting’. Get your facts right. There are 3 groups of Obama supporters here.
    1/ core Obama suporters (who’ll debate sensibly)
    2/ Obamabots (who only snipe and who are QUOTE from my #1452 :
    a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t is rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters” They are also mostly ‘elitist academia theorists loving symbolic not pracical equity solutions
    3/ the socialist Robert where none of those descriptions have been directed(unless unwittingly)
    Now if you wish to assume those descriptions also, thats your choice but I would have thought a socialist’s priorities would be elswhere

  14. Gotta hit the sack to guys.

    Keep the homefires burnin’ and rustle up a few more Supers please Catrina, I feel tomorrow’s massed banjos plunking for Hillary may need to be doused with a bit of numerical cold water! LOL

  15. Night all. I have a possibly-bitter plumber arriving tomorrow morning to fix my hot water system and I need to get up early to remove all references to Reverend Wright in case he’s a Reagan Democrat and overcharges me out of pique.

  16. Night Ron, and don’t forget to put out the butterflies, or they’ll keep you awake all night with their incessant flapping!

  17. Oh, just as I was about to slip into the arms of Morpheus, Ron replies. And, as he dislikes me sleeping when he wants to discharge his pithy bon mots, I’ll answer as succinctly as I can. Yes I’m a socialist Ron. I’m a Marxist no less. I am willing to admit that this makes me far to the left of normal Australian political discourse. If, as you contend, this makes my arguments invalid then it should be easy to spot the invalidity in the arguments. They should be flawed by my foolish extremism.
    But the name of the game is spotting, exposing, and arguing against said flaws. Simply saying “oh he’s a socialist so he must be wrong”, while to be expected of a Tory like your mate ESJ, is surely not enough for someone who claims to belong to the broad church of the Labor movement. But for you it’s apparently enough, along with my (apparently equal) sin of being an “academic” – though, to be honest, I am merely a sessional slave.
    Good night Ron, and may you have interesting adventures with syntax and your various obsessions while I dream of tenure and socialism.

  18. Robert Bollard at 1477

    may (Ron) have interesting adventures with syntax and your various obsessions while I dream of tenure and socialism

    Love the line – sleep tight – dream well.

  19. Two new superdelegates for Obama.
    DPL Roy Romer (CO) and DNC Anita Bonds (DC) step out of the closet.

    Obama: 290 (283+7)
    Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)

    This brings the number of superdelgate out in the cold down to 458.5 of which Obama would need 31% and Clinton would need 96%.

  20. Minor update – Roy Romor was a member of the uncommitted supers in the Pelosi club, but with this endorsement we need to update the Pelosi factor (otherwise we are counting him twice). There are the correct numbers.

    Obama: 289 (283+6)
    Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)

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