This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.
11.30am AEST. CNN reports Clinton leads 53-47 with 20 per cent of precincts counted. Their exit poll, if I’m reading it correctly, points to a result of about 52-48. They called it a “win” for Clinton about half an hour ago, for what that’s worth.
12.30pm. Clinton has just given a speech to claim victory of one kind or another: she now leads 54-46 with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.
12.50pm. As Obama gives his speech, the CNN’s count clicks over to 55-45 with 78 per cent of precincts reporting. They are giving Clinton 52 delegates to Obama’s 36 on television, but their web page is holding back on 37-31.
2.20pm. With 98 per cent of precincts reporting, Clinton’s has a lead of 54.8-45.2, which is at the higher end of market expectations.
Ec,
How could I not accept such a grovelling apology.
Cheers.
Maybe it’s the fact that I’ve moved from the lunchtime shiraz to the evening verdhelo but Billbowe your 194 et al appears to be a tad myopic.
Dunno quite how to break this to you, Growls, but that was no apology.
Maybe we will look back on this as “The Krauthammer Saga”.
Krautgate
Apologies GG if I pricked your pompousity. FG you’re outed, long lunch indeed; it now transpires that it’s the never ending verdhelo voyage…suppose it helps sail the whining three es seas but…& beat off the banshees…
Dinner beckons.
Oh god Harry…..not another ‘gate’
Ah yes Codger ol’ Chum….but it has put me in an exceedingly good mood
More evidence that the GOP see Obama as the real threat:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/us/politics/26ticket.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
codger,
If uncontrollable laughter at your self revealing behaviour at 1096 is “pricking pompousity”, then you may have a point. However, I see it as a gift that will keep on giving.
How did you get people to participate in your field research?
So the GOP and Hillary find themselves as allies in the battle to bring down Obama. What chance their success?
William @ 1094…..you’re right or course, William.
Ferny @ 1111- [So the GOP and Hillary find themselves as allies in the battle to bring down Obama. What chance their success?]
If, as the article suggests, they are going to try to paint Obama as a radical commie black activist then good luck to them. That simply cannot wash with anybody but raci*t morons who are already going to vote for McCain. They were always going to run that, but it really is just a r*cist line – ‘he’s black, so he must be radical’. I think it will have nil traction given the utter emptiness of the accusation. There has to be at least some vague element of truth in a slur.
It will even play into Obama’s theme of change, and he can use it as a springboard to outline his responsible plans for change, every time it’s used. It will make those using it then look like yesterday’s politicians, which Clinton and McCain already represent.
Anyway, it’s academic because once the Dems have a nominee, the polls are going to swing strongly to them, and bury McCain’s campaign.
1113 JV
Everything you say makes perfect sense, even to my wine addled brain. It is the alliance that interests me. Whether it is explicit or complicit, deliberate or accidental, both Clinton’s and McCain’s ads have similar themes.
Pick the Conservative! Then pick the real threat to the Conservatives.
It aint Hillary.
GG @ 1099
‘William is lucky to have you on board.’
I don’t think so horse but thanks for the flattery.
‘Your blog is so authoritative.’
Pompous princess GG, stop it.
Ferny
In its basest form, from here to November it is Obama v The War Party.
And that includes McCain and Clinton.
What would interest me is if once Obama wraps up the Dem nom, he sometime in the next month or 2 gets a few Republican antiwar reps onto his team.
Chuck Hagel is going to be very interesting to watch…as are others.
Obama has the establishment rattled. It is all out attack on him.
Luckily the situation today is so unique, what with GW trashing the Repug reputation and the public absolutely loathing both sides of Congress because of their total ineptness and indebtedness to lobbyists, that this time it will not work.
This election is a referendum on the Economy, the War, and on Washington.
FG @ 1055,
I think you make a good point – the Dems control Congress (sort of, anyway) and Congress is deeply unpopular.
I wouldn’t write off McCain – the markets (which give him about a 30-40% chance of winning) seem to me to be making a reasonable assessment.
But sure, Obama is clear favourite at this point.
Ferny at 1114: “Whether it is explicit or complicit, deliberate or accidental, both Clinton’s and McCain’s ads have similar themes.”
Ferny, picture them as conjoined twins floating in utero, each with an umbilicus connecting to the Beltway placenta.
Hey, Bludgers, getta loada this! Obi is rooted.
*weeps, wails, moans, gnashes teeth, rends garments*
“April 26, 2008
Popular Vote Gives Clinton an Edge
By Michael Barone
One thing many people haven’t noticed about Hillary Clinton’s 55 percent to 45 percent victory over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary is that it put her ahead of Obama in the popular vote.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/popular_vote_gives_clinton_an.html
But before we go blogging-off at the mouth (propriety and a deep and over-riding sense of decorum forbids me from mentioning names here) lets take a bo-peep at the author, shall we?
“Barone is also a regular commentator on U.S. elections and political trends for the Fox News Channel.”
Can’t be any more Fair & Balanced than that!
This story fair reeks of credibility.
Got Pulitzer Prize printed all over it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Barone_(pundit
EC,
Your noble attempts to self regulate yourself and provide even handed commentary reminded me of someone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHPij5Q9geQ
1119
Enemy Combatant
That’s almost up there with Krauthammer’s bald faced lie that Ayers claimed he wished he’d planted more bombs! It the sheer audacity of deceit, tell the big lie and no one will dare assume it is one because they just won’t bother to check the facts.
The audience they talk down to is already so dumbed down they’re nowhere near being Democrat voters.
I’ve just been watching the Frontline series on Bush’s War (screened SBS recently), and it’s almost impossible to comprehend how so many smart people can be so manipulated by a couple of truly Machievelian characters in full gaze of the media. (OK, some us knew the whole WMD thing was a crock at the time, but Colin Powell?)
Cheney/Rumsfeld are truly ugly and vicious bits of work. But my special contempt goes to Paul Wolfowitz, who told the world how wrong and laughable it was what Shinseki had estimated as troop levels to hold stability in Iraq. That smug little worm just dismissed the experience of the General with such facile ease it was sickening.
Of course we all know which one was right.
After watching these creeps I feel like a shower.
As an addendum to the last:
And they’re at it again with Iran. The NYT is running a story where numerous military people are saying that Bush’s line of Iran being the aggressor is not backed up with evidence, in fact they seem to have kept it steady. In other words it’s ‘slam dunk’ MKII.
There’s something brewing in the fevered heads of Bush’s mad cabal, and it’s hard not to get the feeling that it may be the last Neocon throw of the dice before they get annihilated with regime change.
Unless Hillary grabs the baton and annihalates Iran.
But of course, she’ll only do it if they nuke Israel with their non-existent nukes. Ron told me.
Yes Virginia, Hillary will win the popular votes and Obama the PLs. Who are you gonna call?
Finnigans,
In making that prediction about popular vote, are you including Michigan?
Dyno,
This article will be of interest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/us/politics/25campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Ironic.
Just saw this:
The Pentagon’s Iraqi goal posts have apparently moved again. According to a federal report released today, the Pentagon has decided that Iraq needs a security force of up to 646,000 Iraqi troops to successfully battle the insurgency. That seems to be a dramatically larger number than previous estimates. In September 2007, the Pentagon estimated Iraq needed only 390,000 troops. And then as recently as March 2008, the Pentagon said only 580,000 Iraqi troops were needed. (U.S. policy has been to train Iraqi troops to fight the insurgency, so that American forces can ultimately leave.)
…oh, so after 5 years the Rumsfeld cakewalk has turned out to be in fact a ‘quagmire’. (Rumsfeld joked to the press about that word, in his smarmy little way. I hope he’s writting his memoirs with that word in the title where it belongs)
What a freakin’ surprise! And they pay these freaks to ruin their own military and wreck other people’s countries for a Neocon’s wet dream.
Dumbocracy on the road to nowhere.
Maybe HRC has decided to make herself into a Republican candidate to pick up their votes since she can’t get enough Democrat votes.
She will need to be careful that it doesn’t start to look like a Republican block, her and McCain, against Obama, who would appear as the last Democrat.
Also if Democrats start to see HRC as being similar to McCain, in the end they wont bother to come out and vote. Not much focus on policy, it is about style and, HRC is becoming real Republican in campaign tactics.
Wonder if HRC would take up the Republican nomination if McCain pulled out and they asked her? In flash I would reckon.
Hillary Clinton’s Disgraceful Campaign: Racism and Hypocrisy
In the aftermath of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary — a race in which Senator Hillary Clinton had a 20-point lead only a few months ago — the racism and hypocrisy of the Clinton campaign was laid bare for all a nation to scorn.
http://blackstarnews.com/?c=135&a=4470
As someone else here suggested – is HRC trying to destroy the Democrats chances of wining so she can have a clear shot in 20012?
Is Hillary Preparing to Run in 2012?
Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can’t win the general election in November, assuring McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run. But if McCain wins, she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,352651,00.html
#1126 – Dyno, the voters of FL and MI are not the phantoms of the Opera. They are real. They didnt stuff up. They did what they supposed to do. They vote.
They are entitled to have their voices heard. The ones who stuffed this up are the pollies. The pollies should sort this out quick.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120917011362946511.html
Finns, not everything ‘real’ is right and equal. The count that has Hillary ahead includes 300,000 votes for her in Michigan, and none for Obama. Not likely to sway SDs. Obama will finish ahead in vote and delegates, quite comfortably.
Follow the money, and then some. So Obama has the grassroots and the top end. Another act closes:
“There are signs that the anger voiced by some African Americans is beginning to extend to the Democratic donor base. Campaign finance records released this week show that a growing number of Clinton’s early supporters migrated to Obama in March, after he achieved 11 straight victories. Of those who had previously made maximum contributions to Clinton, 73 wrote their first checks to Obama in March. The reverse was not true: Of those who had made large contributions to Obama last year, none wrote checks to Clinton in March.
“I think she is destroying the Democratic Party,” said New York lawyer Daniel Berger, who had backed Clinton with the maximum allowable donation of $2,300. “That there’s no way for her to win this election except by destroying [Obama], I just don’t like it. So in my own little way, I’m trying to send her a message.”
The message came in the form of a $2,300 contribution to Obama.
Donors are not the only ones who have made the leap. Gabriel Guerra-Mondragón served as an ambassador to Chile during Bill Clinton’s presidency, considered himself a close friend of Sen. Clinton, and became a “Hill-raiser” by bringing in about $500,000 for her presidential bid.
…The Obama converts include William Louis-Dreyfus. The billionaire New York financier said he had been impressed by Clinton’s performance in the Senate and distressed by eight years of the Bush administration when he donated the maximum to her campaign last August. Then, he said, he began watching more closely.
“However much one might have supported the Clintons, or one might support the usual suspects in the Democratic Party, I began to believe Obama represents a new approach. He gives off such a sense of relevance that he’s sort of irresistible,” Louis-Dreyfus said.
He also expressed, as did other big givers who crossed to Obama, exasperation about the tone of the Clinton campaign and frustration with the candidate herself.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/25/AR2008042503707_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008042504037
A follow up to, and by the writer of, the fascinating ‘Race Chasm graph’ piece posted here by GG and others a little while ago.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/26/151445/484/474/503968
“Recall the Race Chasm graph that I published in In These Times a few weeks back. It shows how Hillary Clinton has been winning states whose populations are above 7 percent and below 17 percent black. If Democrats nominate a candidate who isn’t well supported by the black community, and that community ends up not turning out to vote in the general election in strong numbers, those states in the Race Chasm like New Jersey and Pennsylvania could flip to the Republicans, and other states in the Race Chasm like Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Virginia could remain in the Republican column (NOTE: I’m in no way saying that Clinton cannot eventually rebuild her support among black voters in a general election, just like I don’t believe Obama cannot strengthen his white support in a general election – all I’m saying is that Clinton’s current weakness among black voters is at least as important a factor in this election as Obama’s current weakness among some white demographics).
Put another way, the black vote – though only 12 percent of the total popular vote – can make the key difference in the key swing states, meaning Clyburn is absolutely right: It is not only subtly racist to generally downplay the importance of the black vote, but it is also mathematically absurd, because the black vote will likely be a decisive factor in the general election.”
This is really interesting from the NYT graphic, courtesy of Votemaster:
In counties that that Bush beat Kerry in 2004 – 151 counties: Hillary won 83 to Obama 69. This put paid to the Obama’s claim of being a candidate that can transcend political parties. Remember his earlier big claim that he will appeal to the Independents and Republicans.
Mornin’ Bludgers, last night I had a nightmare about…..
The Wedging of Barack Hussein Obama
If/when PNAC use their tool, The Imbecile, to “signing statement” a pre-emptive strike on Iran it would throw a bit of a spanner into the nomination works, wouldn’t it? The American Administration would magically switch its focus from Eurasia(I-raq) to Eastasia(I-ran) without skipping a beat.
Those nuke-harbouring Shi-ite Iranians are supplying weapons to Iraqi Shi-ite warlord, Moqtada Al-Sadr, you see, and they are killing our boys in Iraq with them. And, oh yeah, them I-ranians, they’re gonna nuke Israel too!
Meanwhile in the Gulf, personnel from three (3) US aircraft carrier battle groups are on permanent stand by. Sailors, fly-boys and support crew pass the time by playing pinochle and chowin’ down on apple pie while the days count down. But how will the Decider-In-Chief manufacture the consent of the American people for yet another pre-emptive war when The US Economy is on the brink of a major “slowdown”, oil prices are barreling upwards and while there are massive world-wide shortages of grain staples which are making “the peasants” somewhat restless?
Well, controlling the MSM helps a lot I suppose. And the internet can be shut down at the merest hint of “homegrown terrorists” using it to plot and communicate the details of further atrocities upon freedom lovers everywhere.
“Parsons (BillO) was Winston’s fellow employee at the Ministry of Truth (Fox News). He was a fattish but active man of paralyzing stupidity, a mass of imbecile enthusiasms—one of those completely unquestioning, devoted drudges on whom, more even than on the thought police, the stability of the (Grand Old) Party depended.” —pg 22 1984.
http://www.smmirror.com/MainPages/DisplayArticleDetails.asp?eid=7672
http://www.thiscantbehappening.net/?q=node/141
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/042608a.html
And then, I awoke from that bad-awful dream and re-assured myself that everything was peachy, hunky-dory even because Obi was ahead in the popular vote and delegate count, has the overwhelming grassroots support of “ordinary Americans” and that he has loads and loads of character. With a mere six months to the first Tuesday in November, even the betting markets have him positioned as favourite to win.
The Finns, you are hilarious. You repeatedly refuse to answer questions, then when they are reasked, you say you dont respond to broken records. Truly Glen-worthy
#1139 – i also dont response to a parrot
Finns,
Looks like you have a pet stalker. Mine smells other peoples’ underpants (see 1096). Does yours have any special tricks?
#1141- GG, [Looks like you have a pet stalker. Mine smells other peoples’ underpants (see 1096). Does yours have any special tricks?] actually, yes and funny you should mention underpants. You see my parrot is a very special one. Let me tell you about its the trick.
My parrot is a pet in the girl dorm and it got Xray eyes. So everyday as the girls walk pass, my parrot would call out, it’s a blue one, then a pink one, a red etc etc. The girls got really upset by the parrot calling of their undies colour.
So the girls got together and decided to have a NO undies day, so they can teach the parrot a lesson. As the girls walk pass, the parrot is stump for words, for a moment. As the girls start to have their triumphant giggle, the parrot yells out: “It’s a curly one, it’s a curly one”.
GG, btw my parrot is called Andie
I was just on Betfair: Anyone want to bet on McCains health? They are still giving $1.06 for McCain to be the Republican candidate. There is just over 4 months to go until he is formally nominated (Sept 4). So that is 23 % PA return, if only he remains in good enough health to accept.
As for the democratic primaries: Obama is $1.06 for NC. Indiana has Clinton in the lead by $1.73 to Obama $2.14.
#1071
“Using such a flawed figure (Krauthammer) compromises the argument”
Missed your reply. ie. you “MAY” take little or no notice of anything he says adversely about Obama. Can do GG Finns & I also fall into the same category
and which US jounalists (who are not pro Obama ) do not.
Pancho
#1136
Your quote a poor argument on the ‘black’ vote. The vote groups who are staunch Hillary (and firmly anti Obama) supporters are far bigger than the ‘black’ vote. In addition there are the vote groups Obama has personally p…d off who will not vote prevent (& are significantly higher than the increased regitrations)
Then there is the ‘Bill’ win back ‘black’ vote factor. Your source is getting desperate using such fallacious arguments
B.S.F – That is interesting. I wonder what happens if he is ill. Ron Paul is still officially in the race, but no one really established themselves as the number 2 like Clinton has for the Dems. I guess Romney and the Huckster each have a claim. And if McCain names a running mate that person is in there too.
#1137:
[In counties that that Bush beat Kerry in 2004 – 151 counties: Hillary won 83 to Obama 69.]
*sigh* Comparing results between Hillary and Obama is in NO way comparable to results between two presidential candidates from DIFFERENT parties.
Ron, have a look at that same source’s race chasm piece. It accurately talks of and predicts demographic trends throughout the season. It remains scientific, and far from ‘desparate’. I trust his/her numbers more than yours, mainly because the writer presents numbers, not opinion. And the point that the writer makes – which has been non-existent in this clamour to present the Hillary-electability argument – is that the reverse argument can be mounted just as easily.
Pancho, if McCain had to withdraw due to ill health, the Republicans would be in a complete mess. Like you said, by not establishing a clear No. 2, the Democrats could easily point to the Repugs scraping the bottom of the barrel with a candidate who was unable to get much support from his own party.
Obama would win in a landslide.
I guess that is one good thing about Hillary coming a close second to Obama. She is on reserve.
1138
Ecky, we share a dream…er, nightmare, shall we call it?
Is all this stuff about Syria and the almost absurd claim they were building a reactor for nukes coming out now (of all times!), a contrapuntal voice to ‘bomb,bomb,bomb…bomb,bomb Iran’? Ever tried playing the ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ with the Beach Boys? (Wish I hadn’t said that, now I’ve got both tunes pounding in my head together! LOL)
As that goofball Bush talks tough about Iran, the leaky machine has a number of credible sources come out and douch the little boy’s bonfire before it takes off. That happened so quickly it makes you wonder how nervous some people were that the wind could pick up? The neocons are cornered on all sides, sure, they’ve seen the stupidity and lies nearly bugga their country and reduce Iraq to near rubble, but as long as Cheney breathes America is not safe from more of the same.
Would the Repugly party whoop this up to get more wind behind McCain’s limp old sails? Put it this way: Goofball Bush was on his way to irrrelevence before 911, he strutted around giving everyone a rush of patriotic adrenaline and his numbers shot to metioric hieghts. All they need now is to put a booster under Bush again so he can bequeath some of it to McCain to help him over the line.
Put it past them?
Fool me once, shame on you…fool me twice, er, ah, call it dumbocracy!