Pennsylvania Democratic primary live

This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.

11.30am AEST. CNN reports Clinton leads 53-47 with 20 per cent of precincts counted. Their exit poll, if I’m reading it correctly, points to a result of about 52-48. They called it a “win” for Clinton about half an hour ago, for what that’s worth.

12.30pm. Clinton has just given a speech to claim victory of one kind or another: she now leads 54-46 with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.

12.50pm. As Obama gives his speech, the CNN’s count clicks over to 55-45 with 78 per cent of precincts reporting. They are giving Clinton 52 delegates to Obama’s 36 on television, but their web page is holding back on 37-31.

2.20pm. With 98 per cent of precincts reporting, Clinton’s has a lead of 54.8-45.2, which is at the higher end of market expectations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,387 comments on “Pennsylvania Democratic primary live”

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  1. I wonder what time Wolf will call it.
    It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.

  2. Morning Bludgers, be sure y’all have a nice primary now, ya hear!

    Tues April 22:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AhIlNntzDRry0yK6iTmTyZAXvTYC

    Tues April 22:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=ApOAmu02.nA0KnBWvqRZcIpX_b4F

    Tues April 22: Man demonstrating his superiority over animals
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AgNGcdN0XsE9mhZJDt2ynD1J_b4F
    ————————–
    Ah, Ryano, but how many Obibots will be activated in the Obi-zones? In primaries, vox populi is important, but as far as the Dem nomination goes, it’s the delegate tally that counts. After N.C. and IN, the gap will still be 140+ for Obi with a much smaller pool left from which Brutusina may draw.

    If the margin is less than 5 or 6 points, SDs will drawn to the surface like dung beetles on the Serengeti when the Big Game begin to move.

  4. Heard on MSNBC that early exit polling in “rural areas” breaking for Clinton 70 – 30…. I wonder if these are Chaos voters who switched parties only to disrupt the process.

  7. First exit polls on FauxNews:

    Clinton ahead but less than expected with gun owners
    Obama ahead but less than expected with college educated

    Who has been “unfair” in their advertising?

    Clinton 67%
    Obama 42%

    i think that was accurate. may differ a few points. can’t quite remember.

    both analysts said that is worrying for Clinton especially as women(hill’s base) react more to unfairness.

    take it with a grain of salt until numbers come in i guess.

  10. Union Households
    58-42 Clinton
    Under $50,00 P.A.
    55-45 Clinton
    Church Goers
    57-43 Clinton
    Urban Voters
    61-39 Obama
    Who relates to Pennsylvanians
    65-64 Obama

  11. Exit polls showing no surge in late deciders. About 20% as opposed to the about 30 in Ohio. If that number remains true Clinton wo’n break a 10% margin and is looking much closer to 5. That goon Drudge has exit polls showing Hillary by 4, but he was touting internal Clinton polling showing her to win by +10 the other day.

  15. The NYT has a sweet little interactive calculator on it’s home page. You move the slider to a percentage value averaged across the remaining 10 primaries. It then tells you how many of the uncommitted superdelgates she needs to exceed Obama’s total delegate numbers.

    At her average so far – 47% of the vote, she will need 79% of remaining SDs
    Assuming an even 50%, she needs 77% of uncom SDs

    http://www.nytimes.com/

  16. Morning all.
    I notice RCP has extended Obama’s national poll lead to 10.4 this morning. That’s a leap of nearly 3% in as many days.

  17. I saw`that too Ferny. But if Hillary wins by even 2 votes in Pa. today she will claim a resounding victory and drag this out regardless.
    Our only hope is that the people of Pennsylvania are as fed up with her antics as some of us are and Obama voters turn out in unprecendented numbers.

  18. Morning Jen,
    A win to The Kid would be an upset alright. I guess it relies on how ‘upset’ the good folk of Penn are with the shenanigans of Hillary and whether they really prefer stage-managed gun-totin, beer swillin’, Iran obliteratin’ bullsh*t to honesty.

    A 20 point lead to Hillary a few weeks back was always going to be a near impossible task to overcome. But Obama has already done the near impossible to get the lead down to single digits.

    Still I’m sticking by my earlier call of Hillary by 7-8. Both sides will claim it as a victory but nothing will have really changed and the show will move on to Indiana, NC…and on and on and on.

  19. “It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.”

    That “Alabama in between” is also Redneck Republican country (I’ve also heard it called “Penn-tucky”). So it means absolutely nothing in terms of which candidate (Obama or Clinton) is best able to carry Pennsylvania come November. The Dems rely on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (especially the suburbs) to win Pennsylvania, not the wasteland in between.

  21. No movement in the betting markets as yet. They have been fooled by exit polls before. So the consensus at the moment is wait and see.

  30. Harry, even a narrow 4% win for Clinton will be painted by her a great victory. Only a loss has any chance of making her drop out. Please voters of Penn, put us out of our misery.

  32. EC

    I’ve been following sports.betfair.com

    Its hilary to win the nomination has been around $5.5 over the last few days. No movement in that price as yet.

    The favoured outcome is Clinton to win but by less that 7.5% – which doesn’t really add much at this stage.

  33. Even if Clinton loses, she and her camp have said,, they will not drop out. We’re dealing with some real nuts here, with Bill, Hillary and unfortunately, the loyal Clintonites who continue to prop up her dead campaign bid for the nomination, they prefer to destroy the party than to face the facts that Clinton cannot win the nomination, so winning the presidency is beyond her reach!

  39. With crude oil a dime short of US$120 last night, and the USD hitting $1.60 to the Euro, maybe those Amish have the right idea!

  42. Only 10% of voters are under 30 according to exit poll on CNN.

    Does this imply that they didn’t vote or that the exit poll is underrepresentative?

  44. First movement in the betting markets – Clinton odds moving out to $6.

    Clinton is begining to remind me of Jason from the Friday 13th series.

  45. “Probably more important than the exit polls: Andrea Mitchell (who should have gotten her own show instead of David Gregory) says that Clinton insiders expect a close result based on their field reports.”
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    It’s looking like less than a 5 point win to me.

  46. If Clinton wins by less than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.

    If Clinton wins by more than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.

  47. And conversely Alan,

    If Clinton wins by less than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.

    If Clinton wins by more than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.

  49. 42
    Alan

    We’ve heard the argument ‘why hasn’t Obama finished her off?’, but the other one is pretty powerful: ‘how come Clinton, with her dynasty connections, hasn’t won yet?’

    Take ya pick, as they say.

  50. By my calculations, the CNN exit poll is;
    Clinton 51.5%
    Obama 48%

    Perhaps there is a God after all. Anything better than an 8% Obama loss would be a bonus for me. A 5% or less Obama loss will really put the pressure on Hillary to quit.

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