Pennsylvania Democratic primary live

This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.

11.30am AEST. CNN reports Clinton leads 53-47 with 20 per cent of precincts counted. Their exit poll, if I’m reading it correctly, points to a result of about 52-48. They called it a “win” for Clinton about half an hour ago, for what that’s worth.

12.30pm. Clinton has just given a speech to claim victory of one kind or another: she now leads 54-46 with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.

12.50pm. As Obama gives his speech, the CNN’s count clicks over to 55-45 with 78 per cent of precincts reporting. They are giving Clinton 52 delegates to Obama’s 36 on television, but their web page is holding back on 37-31.

2.20pm. With 98 per cent of precincts reporting, Clinton’s has a lead of 54.8-45.2, which is at the higher end of market expectations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,387 comments on “Pennsylvania Democratic primary live”

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  1. 48

    You maybe are forgetting that her campaign is not exactly rolling in cash, and without a hefty win in her natural, keystone state, then donors are going to back off at the speed of light in reverse.

    The flesh is willing, but the checkbook is weak…and the latter rules.

  2. Andrew

    I agree. But the SDs will increasingly realise that she has no hope. They may even start to make a decision for once in their lives and “Endorse Obama to Stop the Drama”. 😀

  3. KR

    I think that Clinton, with all her advantages, has fallen behind and has not been able claw back the lead is the more powerful argument.

    Her odds are drifting up to $7 – it looks like a “not good enough” victory for Clinton.

  4. 50

    One president and one senator in one family is not a political dynasty?

    What should I call it?

    A knitting club?

  5. 49
    Ferny Grover Says:
    April 23rd, 2008 at 10:27 am
    Is it just me, or is the overall tone of discussion far more pleasant today?

    We can fix that punk! Just lean over this way a bit! LOL

  6. I also agree – Hillary will not quit until she is fully pushed out the door. Even when she knows she has no hope of getting the nomination, I think she will persist in order to make it that much harder for Obama.

    Scouting around the blogs today, seems that a Hillary win of about 6 – 7 % is what most expect. We’ll see.

  7. “Voter Action, a national voter rights group, has asked a Philadelphia judge to extend voting hours tonight until 10 p.m., and to use paper ballots at all voting places where broken machines have been reported. The city’s Board of Elections seems certain to object. The hearing is expected to begin momentarily.”
    You’re such a hard task-master, Kirri at 34, however acting on instructions received, it’s been favoutited!

  8. #46, #47
    The CNN exit poll seems to give every imaginable number except the most two important ones – the total votes per candidate.

  9. In CNN’s exit poll, of those who don’t fall into the religious group ie ‘other’, Obama gets 62% of them.

    Guess the others are too busy ‘clinging’ to Hillary! LOL

  10. 58
    Enemy Combatant

    I saw a Newshour segment on that subject the other day and although I knew it was getting bad, I had not realised just how bad. It’s real ‘fall of an empire’ stuff, and against the background of economic implosion, pretty bloody sobering stuff. Not with a bang, but a whimper.

  11. Expect initial count to favour Clinton. Philly results won’t come through until 12 noon or later (our time), and Obama won philly & burbs by huge margins 69%-31% and 62%-37% (by exits).

  12. 59 Triton

    You can work the total votes out based on the proportionate representation in any demographic and the percentage they voted for.

    So in the M/F demographic which is 42/58
    Hillary gets 42%x0.47 plus 58%x0.55=51.6%
    Obama gets 42%x0.53 plus 58%x0.44=48.8%

  13. You have to wonder if Clinton has a four year game plan. Do enough damage to Obama so that he does not become President and can be beaten (or does not stand) in 2012 primaries.

    Either that or she just like burning money and inflicting damage on her party.

  14. 67

    haven’t they learned anything yet! LOL

    Stay calm Bludgers, there are still queues standing waiting to vote FFS.

  15. Diogenes,

    Saw your post re contacting Votemaster. Good get. Certainly added some psephological depth to the usual rah rah here.

  16. Claude is right, it’s the PHilly burbs that’ll hold the key to the Keystone state.

    All else is just silliness, and fun, really.

  17. While I would be very surprised to see Clinton not win, I find the early calls a little odd, given the exit poll numbers we have seen so far. What do FOX know that we don’t?

  18. 79
    Greensborough Growler

    And good day to you sir! Did you just remove your head from anywhere?

    A day of reckoning for the Hillbillies, eh? I mean, her own keystone state, where’d you’d expect her to trounce all comers, and that she needs so desperately, being so far behind an all.

    Running out of track, is she? Or, like Grommet in that classic scene, just managing to lay it in front as she trundles along?

  19. Pancho,

    Fox may have other exit polls.

    They may also look at the voting data that has come through (eg, Clinton leading in Philadelphia with 5% of precincts counted) and conclude that Clinton’s going to win it.

  20. As far as narrative goes, I reckon:

    Under 5% Clinton win – pro-Obama. 5-10% – much the same as things are now. 10-15% pro-Clinton.

  21. Philly numbers. Clinton will probably continue to edge ahead, then be pulled back as big Philly numbers come in. 19% counted there now for Obama 54/46.

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