North Carolina and Indiana minus one week

Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.

* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

822 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus one week”

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  1. Fair and balanced commentary from the Smirking Chimp. Hillary’s refusal to concede despite having lost should not be tolerated by the Democrat Party. Why is it being tolerated?

    (1) Hillary is a female
    (2) Her husband has a “zipper problem”
    (3) Starry eyed Democrats cling to the myth that Bill actually did something in his eight years

  2. Ferny

    Ferny I put a proposition & you’ve answered with a question

    You’re disputing the election POTUS results of ‘liberal Democrats’ candidates ?
    after which i’m happy to discuss Julia

  3. Ferny

    In my #792 I was saying the actual history of POTUS elections since 1972
    has seen 4 ‘left Democrat’ candidates represent the typical northeast Liberal
    (their faction is called ‘Liberal Democrats or ‘left Democrats’)

    The majority (over 50%) here & in the US vote only for a ALP or Democrat candidate who is ‘central’ like Hawke , Keating & Rudd
    and in the US a Clinton or Gore lost by 2,000 votes & won without Nader)

    (NOT from the Labor left or Democrat left)

    The only Democrat left candidates in 36 years werel 4 in the US, all got thrashed again highlighting the view
    (admittedly one was less ‘left’ left than the other 3)

    Its like putting Julia up as the ALP leader , Howard would have won I believe,

  4. All I want from any of the candidates is to solve the palestinian ghetto crisis

    that and only that would prove they are for a new direction

    (maybe it would go a long way to resolving iraq and bringing gas back to $2 a gallon)

    The sleeper issue is “the war on terror” and its real costs to Uncle Sam

    A lot of folks

  5. Codger

    Just got back to my screen & you give me a cartoon , and very good one ignoring the politics

    As you have your own ‘codger’ class category , the popcorn set may not understand the ‘codger’ message of thinkskin’ , so perhaps you should define

  6. 805
    Ferny Grover

    That’s caused by a severe condition Ferny, it’s called ‘eyes glazed over’, and I’ve got it too. Only certain posts, but man, they glaze the eyes, numb the senses, and cause me to rapidly skip down the page! LOL

    The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT, and probably better than most people could have realised had they not seen the Reverend in full bipolar disorder.

    The good Hoosiers interviewed in the article I cited obviously figured that out.

  7. FINNS & GG re Kirriblli

    “The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT, and probably better than most people could have realised had they not seen the Reverend in full bipolar disorder ”

    The first Obamabot has broken ranks !! And now disown the Pastor
    Kirri NOW says the pastor quote: “the Reverend in full bipolar disorder”

    Kirri says it casually as if thats always been his view. It hasn’t , do you want your previous quotes ? Such ‘revisionist’ attempts will not do.
    However you could say frankly my original judgement was in eror and I now realise he is a whacko , like the 3 Amigos have said from day one

    Who will be the next Obamabot to break ranks, jen , j/v , , there’s another 25
    Perhaps if you now re-read Obama’s Philly speech ‘a more perfect union’ , you
    will notice how many times Obama did commit himself to Wright then and and there are numerous quotes now to quote back against him politically. Silly man

  8. I think I may have contracted as ISD (Internet Transmitted Disease) – Ferny showed symptoms at #806 and KR talked about a similar affliction at #809. I recognize the symptions – your reading, you recognize some key words, the name flickers in your subconsouse, you scroll down in the hope the someone else has posted something on-topic, there is a sincking feeling in the pit of your stomach and your thinking to yourself ‘it will go away’ but in your mind you can hear a voice calling out ‘just 115 days’. Your eyelids drop slowly and everything goes dark, you walk away from the keyboard – eyes wide shut. Looking out into the darkness you hear yourself screaming.

    Wow, back to reality!

    No change over on the DCW.

  9. Cracker piece Dio, that one by Prof Green. And you get the feeling that he’s not entirely alone!

    There’s a whipser in the Indiana press that Evan Bayh may not be holding everyone’s nuts in a jar anymore, and after Andrews you get the hint they’re itching to defect.

    It’s like a Kremlin power struggle without the corpses.

  10. 812

    ISD’s can be nasty Catrina, and can really mess up your head.

    I’d prescribe lots of serious distractions, maybe some US polls, study those, and read some good quality analysis, get lots of rest, some exercise, and avoid anything with the word W_R_I_G_H_T as it will bring on the symptoms.

    Failing that, Jon Stewart and relaxant of choice!

  11. Sorry ron @ 809
    every time you make me special I go all funny…anyway

    for the ‘popcorn set’ and you

    codger Says:
    April 30th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
    But ron my words are expensive, ‘I’m special’ but free for you…

    Good morning all, says Ron @ 394
    ‘seems the more that generally white Americans see Obama as obviously ‘black’ the less they support him which may indicate a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’

    And I thought there’s something not quite wright about that …hmm Got it.

    Just add one of your previous comments…‘thinkskin’…it’s easy…So the last bit reads:

    a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’, ‘thinkskin’. More better. Or Houston we have a problem?

    Over to you Major Ron.

    BTW Jen’s togs are gone, your thinkskin is in, how about that!

  12. Public Announcement

    As some of you already know, I’m working on a start-up business – I’m selling a range of products:

    Zippers and Velcro:

    Clergy in the 1920s and 1930s described zippers as allowing one to take one’s clothes off too quickly, thus hastening illicit sexual activity. Clothing with zippers was seen as inappropriate to be worn by women because of this belief, and was not fully adopted until the late 1950s.

    But we have moved on and zippers can be applied in the digital marketplace. When you feel the urge to respond, a zipped can be your best friend. Just apply to your lips, grasp the tag between your fist and second finger, and drag from left to right. But technology moves on – and we have velcro – a more economical product that is easier to produce but should not be used in the stalking scenarios (has a rip-style sound aspect). Velco was provided to humanity by T’Mir (just so you know my who my sources are).

    Final Nails:

    A popular product frequently requested by both Obama and Clinton supporters. For several months the political demographics for this product was strongly aligned with the Obama supporters, firstly, following Super Tuesday – and initial trickle of product demand was recognized by our marketing department, but week after week volume projections simply increased beyond expectations. While a slump in demand occurred following the Philadelphia primary – subsequent trading suggests a reversal of trends with a good level of volume from both Obama and defecting Clintonites.


    Our latest product deals with the life time issue of that stuff we really don’t want to talk about. Our Ronpons capture any excess leakage so you don’t need to hear about it on PB. It’s probably our best selling product in terms of volume and we are currently negotiating for international distribution rights. Our Ronpon product is multilayer and is guaranteed to remove even the slightest subtle suggestion from irrational or misconceived PB comments for up to 8 hours.


  13. ‘Our Ronpons capture any excess leakage so you don’t need to hear about it on PB.’

    Catrina, how dare you, pleae explain. Any pickies? Just asking. Oops, e bay brochure that is.

  14. I meant that whoever wins the democratic nomination, the federal election will be close and it will likely depend – again – on Florida and Ohio.

    As to close things in various states, if you look at the map over time, there are no surprises. Polls may be closer here and there, but the fact remains that Hillary is going to win Penn, while Obama might not, and Obama has no chance in Florida and is behind in Ohio. Dreaming about Obama winning Texas is wishful thinking in the extreme. It just is not going to happen.

    Indiana polling:

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