North Carolina and Indiana minus one week

Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.

* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

822 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus one week”

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  2. NC looking good, Indiana is a concern with a high undecided and bad press this week for Obama. It would be great if he could win it which might shake out more SDs

  4. Here is a snapshot of presidential polling on a state by state basis:

    First, Obama v McCain:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html

    Next, Clinton v McCain:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May01.html

    I know that this page changes on a daily basis, and you can access the changes from here:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    However, it would appear that despite the claims from some in the Obama camp, it is not so clear from current polling that Obama is more electable than Clinton. At present, whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is going to be close and it is going to likely depend on Florida and Ohio.

  5. Pancho – pity RCP doesn’t appear to include Zogby in their averages.

    David Gould – Why on earth would the nomination “Florida and Ohio”? The rest of the states don’t count?

  6. Try again:

    David Gould – Why on earth would the nomination “depend on Florida and Ohio”? The rest of the states don’t count?

  7. FG – I’m pretty sure they do. I have seen Reuters/Zogby polls on there before. We’ll see tomorrow in any case.

  9. It really is all about the psychology now. The maths is clear cut, but it’s the psychology that has changed since PA. A solid win for Obama in NC will lift his team and a close run thing in Indiana could finish it.

    On the other hand, if Hillary can keep Obama to 7% or less in NC and win Indiana, then the psychology remains with her and the race will continue into June even though the delegate score won’t change much at all.

  10. Agree FG. Although even if Hillary loses by alot in NC AND loses Indiana, I dont think she would pull out, remember this candidacy is HERS, but it may make a swag of SDs declare and finish this thing

  11. You wonder whether the voters in the upcoming primaries have the “let’s finish this thing” factor swaying their vote, and hence a vote for Obama??

  12. And will all the bluff and bluster about electability, I think both Dem candidates would easily account for McCain (the head to head will improve once the candidate is chosen), but I think Hillary has more negative perceptions for the Repugs to exploit (doesnt mean they would win though).

  13. 754
    David Gould

    You may have missed the discussion about these maps over the last few days, so here’s a quick primer.

    If you only look at who wins in each of the states, BUT NOT at by how much, then yes Hillary looks to be better able to take McCain.

    But there are 50 races, each one has a story, so let’s just take one, say Texas.

    Obama is one point behind McCain in Texas polling, but Hillary is 7% behind. In just this state alone, Obama catches McCain if he wins it. He is very close to winning a total of 93 EV (Electoral Votes) off McCain, whereas Hillary is only closely behind McCain on 13.

    Conversely, Hillary holds much slimmer margins on her winning states than does Obama over McCain.

    She’s ‘at risk’ on 94 Ev’s whereas Obama is far more secure with his, and only shakey on 36 of his electoral college votes.

    By looking at each state, comparing the margins, the demographics, and the powerful campaign machine that Obama wields, it’s possible to see Hillary’s lead as being on ‘thin ice’ but Obama more solidly threatening McCain.

    The above is why the Republicans DO NOT want to fight Obama, as he changes the electoral map and threatens them on home turf. He can outspend and out-organise them, and they are sh!tting themselves that he can wipe them out for a generation.

    Hillary, on the other hand, is playing the game they know: a couple of swing states will decide it, and hey, she’s got more baggage and a pile of negatives to bring out hostile Republicans.

    Obama is the one to change history, Hillary IS history.

  17. 765 Jen

    Nup. Just reality.

    Ferny (or anyone else with a theologico-political expertise)

    I’ve been doing my homework on how neocons justify their belief in Christian values, which include poverty and charity, as well as espousing rampant capitalism and denigrading socialism, which I think would best characterise JC’s politics.

    The neocons spout the Parable of the Talents from Matthew, where the master gives three slaves money. Two earn more with it but the third buries it and returns the same amount. The two who increase their wealth are rewarded and the schmuck who buried the loot is punished. This evidently means the more money you make, the better Christian you are. I’m not sure how this fits in with “It’s harder for a rich man to enter heaven than for a camel (which I realise is a thick rope) to pass through the eye of a needle”.

    Do the neocons have a point or are they the Lying Liars that Al Franken assures me they are ❓

  18. #750, Catrina, thanks for keeping us up to date with the superdelegates. I expect there will be a lot more to count after Tuesday.

  19. Noocat at 768

    No problem – although I think my Pelosi Club numbers may be out just a little. I think the numbers are actually 1 more in favour of Obama than I have stated (gets a little complicated when you have someone who has endorsed Clinton but will vote for the delegate with the most pledged delegates (Obama) so your adding and subtracting and at the same time both the Pelosi playpen and the bigger super playpen keep shifting in size.

  20. Well, I’m looking forward to Hillary’s lead heading into the negative region soon.

    Despite everything thrown at him – the Wright and “bitter” smears, Hillary’s fear campaigns, media attacks, and a full frontal assault from the Republicans – Obama’s drop in the polls is actually negligible. Obama has definitely earned this Democrat nomination…

  21. Noocat at 770

    Yep – me too! But there is this thing hanging in the air – what if she doesn’t concede? There are 115 days to go before the convention and I worry about the metal health of people all over the planet. Think about it – 115 days of Hillary articulating the rationale, the paths to victory, the moving goalposts, and the explanation of why it is good for the people, the party and the country. But that’s not all – there are a potential 115 days of r/Ron talking about Wright and tickers and lies and deceit.

    I agree with you that Obama has definitely earned this Democrat nomination but come nomination day, I figure we will have earned it as well.

    🙂

  22. Uncle Karl, is McBombster’s man in the FOX-hole. Might be a bit hard to neutralise the negative spin on this one.

    “House committee threatens Rove with subpoena.”

    http://thinkprogress.org/2008/05/01/house-committee-threatens-rove-with-subpoena/

    Catrina at 753, thanks. You shoot a great game of pool yourself. Dang ‘n’ all, you must be cuttin’ up real bad figurin’ that you’ll never come under consideration for a “Blue Rain”. That honour is bestowed only upon “Chosen Ones”.

  25. [But there is this thing hanging in the air – what if she doesn’t concede?]

    Well, that is a strong possibility. If it gets to that, I might have to take a holiday from the media for a few months… watching Hillary die a slow political death has already been painful, watching it drag out for 115 more days as her and her supporters become even more shrill, espousing policies even more extreme than obliterating Iran, and who knows what else… aaargh, best not thinking about it right now.

  27. Five years ago, George strutted across the flight deck in his flying suit, the banner proclaimed “Mission Accomplished”, and the media had a wet dream:

    http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/

    …which they seem to have awoken from, and yet learned absolutely nothing.

  29. Noocat and Catrina

    Terry McAuliffe, chairman of Billary’s failed campaign to get the nomination, has said it will all be over by the 15th of June, one way or the other. That’s 44 days at the most. 😀

  31. Gotta love the Rude Pundit!

    Bill Clinton is Hillary’s Jeremiah Wright! LOL

    Well, here’s a guy who philandered his way throughout their marriage, even inducted at least one intern into the delights of the Oral Office, er, Oval Office, and publicly humiliated her over and over again.

    Well, why didn’t she just walk out? You know, like Obama was supposed to do at his church?

    It’s funny, but somehow we won’t see Obama making that argument, but if Hillary does win the nomination, we can be sure we’ll hear it from the Republicans! LOL

  32. Ferny

    #684
    Obama and facing the Rev Wright being now ‘disowned’
    Been out , just scolled last night so far & noticed your blog, missed when replying to EC ‘s 2 TLC blogs. Thank you for your blog & intent in the first paragraph

    As to the balance , I’ve since re-read your #652 and it may appear you stand broadly by the overall assessment accuracy you listed. Similar comments have been made by Kirri , Codger , Junior Senator & others, and that is everyones perogative here.

    However you raised a few issues and also culural gulfs with some Obama supporters here with our only similarity to vote Labor.

    Rain will confirm the dominant wing of the Democrat Party is the “liberal Democrats” . Within that wing is an not insignificant group with “elitist-view based including some ‘Kennedys’.Obama is certainly an ‘elitist’. Many Obama supporting blogers here also seem to support the “liberal Democrats” wing views of which some of those blogers have “elitist-view based just like some within the US Democrat Party “liberal Democrat” wing. This is my political commentary and unless banned will continue to so refer as an accurate political model. There are other “liberal Democrats” here who are different view base including ‘Intellectuals’ and many others as one would expect on a free entry site

    Unlike some here, I’m self taught and think nothing of it , and admire actually those you’ve used their opportunities & skills to gain Tertiary & other honours/positions (and why twice previously mentioned favourably Victor Chang’s , Dick Smith’s & Gov Gen William Dean etc). I do not see a contradiction in my last statement .There’s no chips on my shoulder, but any with chips go to unemployed or a homeless refuge

    Finally there are about 26 of Obama supporters , some regular & some irregular and 3 amigos. Most of you throw obviously belittling ‘barbs’, so when one Amigo may reply with some return fire I can not see you guys disadvantage.

  33. 780 Andrew

    So, I asked, when does this end?

    “June 15,” he said without a nanosecond of hesitation.

    Why then? I asked. The primaries finish on June 3, he noted, and after that there will be pressure on the uncommitted superdelegates (who now number about 300) to commit to one candidate or another. It should not take too long for these undecided insiders to make up their minds and declare their intentions–even if there are some who would rather not choose between the two.

    So all done by June 15? You won’t contend the nomination contest beyond then? I asked.

    “Oh, I’m confident we’ll be the nominee,” he said, smiling.

    McAuliffe’s Promise: It’s Over By June 15
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/04/mcauliffes-promise-its-over-by.html

  34. William

    I’m don’t think we do UK elections at PB, but Labour was caned yesterday by the Tories. And Neil’s (Seven-Up) party, the Liberal Democrats, beat Labour in the popular vote. Perhaps Neil has been right all along and he’s the winner of the Seven-Up clan! ;?

    “With just over half of results from yesterday’s local elections announced, David Cameron’s Conservatives are on course for a significant breakthrough, winning as much as 44 per cent of the national vote.

    Labour is now expected to finish with as little as 24 per cent, humiliatingly pushed into third place by the Liberal Democrats on 25 per cent. ”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mayoroflondonelection2008/1919873/Mayor-election-2008-Tories-look-to-Boris-Johnson-to-seal-election-success.html

  35. Diogenes, forgive me for my skepticism.

    Hillary first declared this nomination was “all about delegates”. She then changed her mind when she started losing on the delegate front, so then it became the “popular vote”, and when she was losing that too, it became the more obscure “electability”.

    So while McAuliffe might now be declaring June 15 as the end date because it is all about superdelegates, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Hillary reverts back to the issue of “electability” should things not go her way, therefore hoping to spend the remaining weeks to the convention trying to convince superdelegates to change their mind…

    But I guess we’ll see!

  36. Kirri
    #781

    You use facts like Obama does , dispensible.
    Hillary was not standing for POTUS , Obama is. Obama had no courage to leave the Church whereas anyonewith ‘ticker’ would

    Bill philandered his way throughout their marriage ?
    Obama’s hero MLK did also.

    Noocat

    #785

    Hillary has every right to in the interests of the Party rather than having Obama
    who stands for nothing but vague promises crushing the Party

  37. Noocat

    That’s what Hillary would want to do if she had the chance but the Democrats actually want to win this time. The noises from Dean, Pelosi et al are that they will unite behind Obama when the SDs pull their fingers out and finish her off after the last primary. Don’t forget that Gore and Edwards are yet to endorse and they can help kill her off. They have to choose a VP and start putting their candidate up against McCain in ads etc. It would be suicide not to cut the rotting carcass down. They are not going to be lemmings again, figuratively. Hillary might be offered Attorney General or something like that to go quietly.

  39. 767 Diog

    They really use the parable of the talents to justify unregulated capitalism??
    To put it very briefly, the parable was actually about using the gifts/life God gives humanity for the benefit of humanity. The point was that the foolish stewards would waste their gifts and the wise stewards would take the gifts and do worthwhile things with them. Selfishness would be a waste of God’s gifts, while showing compassion or otherwise contributing to human flourishing would be a wise use of those gifts. If you waste your life, it’s a ‘sin’. If you use your life to benefit others, then God is pleased.

    The parable had nothing to do with actual money; it was a parable ie a moral tale using everyday examples to make a point.

  40. Obama’s lead in NC has increased on the RCP average to 8.4 now that Zogby’s (+16 to Obama) poll has been added. The Zogby Indiana poll (tie) has not been added yet.

  42. RAIN #691 and PANCHO #713

    Rain ,

    the evidence is on your side but Pancho coming from the
    ‘liberal Democrat’ wing of the Democrat Party which has been responsible for the rout of the Prty is in self denial.

    Lets look at the actual evidence of POTUS elections , the indesputable test
    over the last 36 years

    Pancho’s wing the “liberal Democrats” , 4 candidates , all thrashed , Obama next
    vs
    The ALP right faction equivalent in the Democrats
    3 candidates (Clinton (2) & Gore , 2 wins & Gore lost by 2,000 , wins no Nader

    The only other Candidate was the Georgian Carter who sure was not a
    northeast Liberal

    When the wing has the faction numbers , it always produces loses 100% record

    Now to Pancho’s disagreement to your comments on DNC Chairman Howard Dean
    Pancho didn’t say Dean also is from the same faction he supports the “liberal Democrats” nor that in 2004 as Primary race leader , HE stuffed up , self imploded and hurt the Party’s chances to defeat Bush. Dean is another election loser.

    Now Howard Dean DNC role who is also a “liberal Democrats” faction member (like Obama) in stitching Hillary (from the ‘right Democrat’ faction) to favour Obama from his faction over the Michigan & Florida ‘suspension’ that Hillary was at the time polled as winning by 20%+ (and later did by 17%). It was dirty politics by Obama with Dean acting as the frontman.
    If Hillary chooses to fight for those 2 States , Obama and yous want to hope she doesn’t tell the whole truth.

    The ALP had a similar looney faction. The socialist left.

  43. Ferny

    There is oodles of commentary about the Parable of the Talents. Here is a link to one from no lesser an expert on neocon morality than John Howard in his Hillsong address. I’m not making this up!

    JOHN HOWARD: Parable of the Talents, to me has always been, has always seemed to me to be the “free enterprise parable”. The parable that tells us that we have a responsibility if we are given assets to add to those assets.

    http://paulswritings.wordpress.com/2007/08/10/howard-wrong-on-parable-of-the-talents/

  44. Billary’s situ reminds me of the rollercoaster experienced by those dealing with someone with a terminal illness…..remissions can cast doubt on prognosis and give a such false sense of optimism .

    It has been a pleasant day scrolling through PB Central today and some great posts.

    Spotted this article “Did the US Supreme Court just elect John McCain?”

    http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2008/3090

  45. Diog, Someone needs to tell those ‘Christian’ neocons that if that parable were about the godliness of wealth building then Jesus, being poor, was clearly a sinful wretch.

    I seem to recall Him saying something about it being “impossible to serve both God and mammon” (meaning material wealth).

    Hilllsong would have liked the message as they believe in what is sometimes called the “prosperity doctrine” that wealth is an indication of God’s favour and poverty of his disfavour. Clearly such a belief system could only have come out of California and not Bangladesh.

  46. A few Hoosiers aren’t all that swayed by Rev Wright, one way or the other.

    Crikey, these people need to wake up, smell the coffee, and get over to Pollbludgers where I’m sure Ron will tell ’em they are dreamin’!

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/us/politics/02indiana.html

    …goddamn those Hoosiers, they just ARE NOT paying attention to the profound questions that Ron has raised to the nth power of absurdity, right here, every day, for how long?

    And they don’t care?

    Man, what’s the world coming to? i ask you!

  47. How would Jesus behave in the hallowed halls of merchandising called Hillsong?

    He’d probably be chucking out the cash registers and getting himself arrested! LOL

  48. 792 Ron
    I take it you’re not a fan of Julia Gillard, a rather prominent member of the socialist left.

  49. KR,

    Somehow I don’t think Hillsong would recognise him, let alone worship him. And yes I think He’d be overturning the cash registers again. Bloody radical.

  50. Kirri

    #796

    this article you quoted demonstrates why you can only use the coloured pieces on votemaster as a draught board to demonstate you know little about electoral maps. Stick to the financial pages & Iraq

    Go back & listen to not how they told a reporter they’d vote or be influeneced but whether the Pastors comments were any concern

    After that , you can read the Wasghinton Post below. The pastor story will remain alive from neon reporters , objective ones & pro hillary ones , doesn’t matter its news so the voters won’t forget the Pastor….this being the non issue

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