The latest Morgan phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening to 63.5-36.5 from 60.5-39.5 last week. I believe this is a record for a Morgan phone poll, while not quite matching face-to-face polls from earlier in the year which put it at 65-35 and 64.5-35.5.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
“482
Nostradamus Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:29 pm ”
Didn’t you predict a stunning Liberal Party win at the last election with John Howard holding his own seat and increasing his majority??
Not too good on predictions are you mate?
And this stuff of Howard nobly sticking with Bennelong as it slowly moved to the ALP. Wasn’t this silly? Last election some seats might have been lost because Howard had to spend so much time in Bennelong. Crazy!
I’m a right-winger now, but I still detest Fraser for his actions in 1975. (when I was an ALP supporter). It is truly amazing to me that he has become a hero to the left-wingers of today. I wouldn’t trust that arrogant creep in any respect, ever.
I am surprised at how quickly the Liberal Party dumped Howard’s policies. If they had said we only lost by about 3% – our policies are correct and we will fight for them at the next election they may have had a chance at one term in opposition.
But unfortunately (for them) they lost thier policy nerve and have given Labor a clear run. Sad really. 🙂
The main reason they lost their “policy nerve” and dumped a number of their policies was because they were comprehensively rejected at the last election.
The Libs are a policy free zone now because what policy platform they ran on at the last election was shallow at best and rejected by the majority of the Australian electorate.
Their big problem now is that they left the gate open and Rudd & Labor was able to quickly fill the void with a reasonably comprehensive range of policies that were popular with an overwhelming number of electors.
The main problem for the Libs now is that, Rudd hasn’t left very much fertile ground in the paddock for the Libs to till. They can only go further right, which would be total suicide, or go to the left of Labor, which wouldn’t sit very well with much of their base.
I think you will find that they have decided to just shadow Rudd, policy wise for a while, with occasional variations on individual policy positions (similar to the apology issue), and hope for advantages to come their way from adverse economic conditions and a poor response from Labor as well as maybe a big stuff-up or mishandling in more than one policy area over the next 3 years.
I personally don’t like their chances in any of these three scenarios. They are up against a wiley operator in Rudd who has a very capable and competent front bench at his disposal. Unfortunately for the Coalition, they have neither a capable leader or front bench that the electorate feels in anyway comfortable with.
Witness the polls. There is no likelihood of any change much for a very long time. The LNP needs to totally remake themselves, get rid of the far right nutters and develop policies that further the interests of the average Australian. This will take some time and effort and if not undertaken, will lead to totally irrelevance.
Scorpio replace Labor with Coalition and Rudd wirth Keating/Beazley/Latham and it would reflect Labor in opposition.
I believe it was either Possum or Mumble who explained small variations in policy positions is product differentiation.
JoM
That is kind of the point I was making, the Liberals have abandoned their brand and thus have to build another from the ground up.
I don’t think that the Labor victory was as comprehensive as Scorpio says. Qld came back to a normal situation and there was a moderate swing in some other states.
If the Liberals had stuck to their “brand” and attacked Labor I contend that they would be in a better shape at the next election.
But they were in shock when Howard lost his seat – everyone expected Costello to take the reins – when he did not they were without a rudder.
Rudd wedged them – and called for bi-partisan approaches to issues that they should have remained mute on for a while “we are having a policy revue – and we will announce at a later date what our position is” would have been a more prudent response.
Or maybe they just got outplayed by a better political team?
John of Melbourne,
Only a confirmed optimist could make such a comparison.
Keating/Beazley/Latham were never in a similar position in which your side of politics now find themselves in.
There was always room to move policy wise in their case, but Nelson and the Coalition do not have a similar luxury.
they are a policy free zone exactly as I outlined in my previous post. If you can demonstrate “any” policy of substance that your side are currently proposing, I would gladly recant my position.
Unfortunately, what I have said is true, which is unfortunate not just for Nelson & the Coalition, but for the Australian political process as a whole. The sooner your side come to the realization that what I have previously posted is the reality of their position, the sooner steps can be taken to recrtify the dire position you are now in.
I do not mean this in a vindictive or smug way, but hope it can be accepted as a constructive evaluation of the reality of the situation.
Ruawake I agree with you when you said the Liberal party should have said, “we are having a policy revue – and we will announce at a later date what our position is” in regards to bi-partisanship.
“Or maybe they just got outplayed by a better political team?” Could be.
I think Rudd will be vulnerable on health after having said the buck stops with him. In two years time that might bite.
INHO good on Costello for not taking the reigns. The country needs a break from people associated with the Howard years. I think he should stay on in Parliament and contest for the Liberal leadership in 2011 -2012. I think he could win then.
Scorpio you’re right we don’t have any concrete policies, everything is up for renewal.
[I think he should stay on in Parliament and contest for the Liberal leadership in 2011 -2012. I think he could win then.]
John, I’m sorry, but after observing Costello fairly closely for the past 12 years, I cannot imagine him quietly sitting by while the Liberal Party go through a complete renewal and restructural process.
The man’s ego wouldn’t allow it and in a lot of respects, he is part of the problem they now have.
If the Libs go through a similar process that they went through in the 80’s with constant shuffling of the leadership, front bench etc., then I cannot see Costello staying on.
He’s carrying too much baggage also and would be a sitting target for Rudd to constantly wedge and time will beat him in any case.
Scorpio fair comments.
I don’t know about his ego but I’m sure he’d have a hand in the restructuring process. This is a great opportunity for the Liberals to expand their membership base simply because they have to, to raise money. Costello could be involved in such a campaign.
The baggage you speak of may be long forgotten by 2011 – 2012. If it the country is in a poor shape financially at the time of the 2013 elections and if I were Costello I would run a campaign titled, “Glory Day” i.i Costello will bring back the glory days.
Looks like another labor election promise well on the way to implementation.
Don’t think many of the service station operators in my area will be too pleased though. The ones in my area have a bad habit of putting prices up early after a world oil price rise, never bringing it down when the price drops and by coincidence, all having the same fuel prices on the same day.
[The Federal Government has announced it will establish a national FuelWatch scheme.
The scheme will require service stations around the country to notify a central authority of their prices for the next 24 hours by 2:00pm.
They will then be required to stick to that price for the entire day, thus eliminating afternoon price hikes.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/15/2217746.htm?section=business
494
MayoFeral Says:
So what did he do when he finally got the top gig? As far as I can see his vision was limited to the GST and turning the workforce into serfs.
Plus some divisive pap about culture wars and how the Left magically dominates every institution in the country in perpetuity, even after the conservatives had been in power for 11 years and held both houses of federal parliament.
498
Kina Says:
If there were such desires by Howard says Fraser, let Howard produced all the documentation to support it … Howard remained very silent, there were and are none.
No doubt Howard would view it as a dignified silence.
509
John of Melbourne Says:
I think Rudd will be vulnerable on health after having said the buck stops with him. In two years time that might bite.
OTOH, if Rudd actually delivers a substantial improvement in health, and that is a possibility, he will be very difficult for the Coalition to attack, especially considering their less than impressive track record on health issues. And if Rudd also delivers in other major areas, such as education, foreign relations, and general state-federal co-operation, then the Coalition and their policy approach to these matters really are in seriously deep doo-doos, because by most measures stuff like that got worse under their rule.
512
John of Melbourne Says:
The baggage you speak of may be long forgotten by 2011 – 2012. If it the country is in a poor shape financially at the time of the 2013 elections and if I were Costello I would run a campaign titled, “Glory Day” i.i Costello will bring back the glory days.
Can’t see that happening. Rightly or wrongly, many people still weigh down Keating with interest rates baggage, and that was over 12 years ago.
The stench of SerfChoices in particular will take a long, long time to wear off, and Costello can’t pretend he had nothing to do with it, he’s always had a hard right ideological line on IR. Dollar Sweets, anybody?
It looks like those people who critisised Rudd for a back-down on the Olympic torch relay security issue will have to eat humble pie.
[Deputy president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Kevan Gosper says the Chinese will accompany the torch but will only be called on in an emergency.
But ACT deputy chief police officer Shane Connolly says Chinese authorities will not be used for security under any circumstances.
“Under no circumstances, no matter what occurs, will they be called on to perform a security function,” he said.
“In fact if there was an urgent situation the runners that we may have out at any one time would be put back into the bus for their own security.”
Mr Gosper had earlier said that if protests become too violent, the Chinese officials would be called on to provide security assistance.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/15/2217755.htm?section=justin
The Liberals do need to start polling better figures sometime soon. Otherwise it means they can’t oppose anything. The last thing, with such bad poll figures, they need is to fight an election (also the warchest is compeletely empty) and if they oppose anything in the senate it is likely to be blocked*, which could cause a double dissolution. And the ALP is in the exactly opposite position and would love to fight another election sometime at the end of this year or next year. So the Liberals are going to be extremely reluctant to block legalisation.
And if the Liberals can’t oppose anything, then they look like they stand for nothing. Taking a stand against stuff is seen as leadership, and if Nelson or who follows can’t do that, then they are not going to make much headway. So I think Nelson is gone within three months**.
But that also leaves another question or two: If Nelson is rolled by Turnbull, how long do the Liberals give Turnbull before he has to perform? What do they do in six months if his TPP figures are say 20 – 60?
*The Greens would love a double dissolution and therefore I don’t expect them to be active in passing much legalisation.
** If Nelson manages to make a meal of his speech at HMAS Sydney memorial (24/4) or has a “Karl Rove” moment, he could very well be shown the door the next week. I say this as it is the one time he has to speak a wider audience before the budget.
A reminder of Howard’s economic credentials commented on during the election campaign. I wonder if Howard really wants us to dig into his performance?
Michael Costello: History backs Keating’s claim on economy
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21984668-7583,00.html
Govt could have ‘better spent’ resources revenue
ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake says the Federal Government should have made better use of the revenue it has made from Australia’s resources boom.
Mr Eslake has addressed the Australian British Chamber of Commerce and told the gathering the Government has spent or given away almost every single dollar associated with the windfall gains.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/26/2044302.htm?section=australia
Gap between rich and poor widens
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/gap-widens/2007/08/02/1185648060461.html
A collection made during the campaign and after at this site:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=62&p=5
Chris from Edgecliff @ 471
LDN Chris @ 448, you no doubt would have been one of those creaming their jeans over the fact that Howard could not hold on Bennelong. Get a life champ. Bennelong would have been lost years ago if not for JWH being the member. Moreover, whatever else you might think of Howard, at least he had the guts to stick it out in Bennelong instead of decamping to a safer seat like Evatt and Beazley
We’re not bitter much then, are we? I was simply pointing out that JWH doesn’t seem to get it. He spent years telling us how in touch he was with the man on the street, yet he couldn’t even hold his seat. And this notion that somehow he was a martyr for sticking it out in Bennelong is ridiculous. He had such a messiah complex that even when the majority of his cabinet told him to go, he stayed on because his family told him to? Right…… If that’s not out of touch, I’d like to know what is. I’m sorry if you find that upsetting.
Still on JWH’s appearance – what does Nelson think he has to gain by appearing with him? I suppose his approval ratings can’t get much worse, but why jettison most of his policies, then be seen acting like best mates?
“I don’t think that the Labor victory was as comprehensive as Scorpio says. Qld came back to a normal situation and there was a moderate swing in some other states.”
Without the advantage of incumbency and the aura of and familiarity with Howard/Costello I believe the LNP would have been well and truly belted at the last election. Now Howard has gone and being the Opposition the mirage has been broken and a gaping hole revealed of credibility revealed – and the polls show us that.
Now we have Rudd gathering credibility points from day one, non-stop. How quickly he has smothered the Howard legacy and left no one anytime to reflect on it so busy has he been. The Rudd government has given the strong impression that it has come in and taken control of the economy to try and fix it etc. Be it true or false the impression is being made in the public mind.
Kina
I am predicting a huge Labor swing at the next election (using my super dooper Nostradoofus skills).
A bit like Beattie in Qld or most Labor state Govts when they won Govt. The winning is the hard part. To be honest doing a really serious bit of doofusing, the Nats could be the senior coalition partner in 2011-12.
Ruawake: Left Wing troll.
BB 😛
Go easy, ruawake. You don’t want to send Nostro and Glen to bed with a migraine, do you.
Kina, you forgot those scummy electoral laws that cost me money with centre bet 🙂
I find it interest that some of you guys find it interesting to revive Bennelong again. I personally think if he wasn’t a tool he could have kept it. What sticks in my mind especially, was something that Glen Milne said on the insiders a few months before the election. That if the vote in Bennelong was close, his branding of the Tamil tigers as terrorists (some being arrested and such) would cost him dearly due to its substantial Tamil population.
Although may post at 520 had my tongue firmly in cheek there is some truth in it. If you look at when state govt. have fallen to Labour the general rule is that they increase their majority at the subsequent election.
The challenge for the Libs is to stop this from happening, but I think they have gone about it in a predictable but wrong fashion.
Scotty at 524
Exactly – the libs might have been on the nose federally, but the fact that he lost his seat as well shows people thought he had lost the plot. I would have thought being PM would add at least 10% to his vote. He made some silly mistakes and couldn’t see they were going to cost him his seat.
Chris
I agree most, incumbent governments benefit from fear of the unknown that allows incumbent governments to fear monger about absurd statements.
Once that uncertainty goes and the people who make those absurd statements (who will attract anger) will look silly.
Interestingly in recent federal government changes incumbent governments have not increased their vote. But the state labour government have done this. But many of them came from minority governments. So it should prove very interesting.
Scorpio @ 513,
Surely you have to be very, very sceptical that this measure is anything more than window dressing?
What it means, fundamentally, is
– prices will move less often than they do now – hard to see why this necessarily means the average punter will pay less
– there’ll be a lot more incentive for petrol stations to price-fix (at a local level, anyway) than is currently the case. Currently if the guy down the road is cheaper than me, I just put the price down. Under this system I won’t be able to do so till tomorrow, so there’ll be much more benefit in “talking” regularly than there is currently.
(I’m not a servo operator, by the way, just trying to put myself in their shoes).
I guess the beauty from a Labor perspective is that no-one will ever be able to prove what effect the new regime has had.
Most interesting reading, Bludgers. For what it’s worth, I reckon no matter who is the Leader of the Libs. a) they should be back peddling into the middle distance any time Howard offers to help, politely, of course, and b) they need to reconcile who it is they actually represent and develop some policy in relation to same – well, any policy really. This, of course, is going to be tremendously difficult, because it’s unclear who they represent and Horatio’s magical listening tour doesn’t appear to have turned up any likely takers/supporters. A move to the left? A move to the right?
William, for what it’s worth from a bar fly, fine site, sometimes descends into garbage and I confess to being a contributor to the rubbish, and promise to try and lift my game.
Glen
Deary me i must say i have lost a little respect for you today. Silvio Berlusconi is one of the most disgusting politicians to inhabit the earth. The way he changed electoral laws to make it almost impossible for the opposition to govern with a majority then used senate numbers to damage the country to make the government look bad. The way a few honourable senators were treated who thought that was immoral was abysmal. Shame on you. I would not be proud of a left wing leader acting the way he has. I do not even support leaders who are not that bad. For example i think Hugo Chavez is a tool of the first degree. I would have nothing against a conservative such as Angela Merkel being elected but that shows how desperate you must be feeling atm.
Nostradamus
I must give it to you. You are an optimist. I think the point is that most incumbent governments are in hot atm, especially those who have been there awhile. The Haitian President proved that. Food prices and petrol prices have made people very angry since the start of the year. The problem with your argument is that you exclude places such as Japan, USA and possibly Germany could fall into this category. You are however probably right about New Zealand if they stick with Helene Clark and maybe even if they do not. I’m not so sure about The Poms. They do not have an election due for awhile and if they ride out the storm they may be okay. Their biggest hope is that The Democrats win. As this would help sweep under the carpet their largest electoral liability.
I would also point out that the governments of Paraguay and El Salvador are abit on the nose. Generally not worth attention. However that would make Colombia the only conservative government in South/Central America.
It seems to me that some fairly intelligent discussion between left and right has resumed on this site, which is a good thing. I’ve been reading every day but felt that no matter what anyone said, someone else would abuse the crap out of them, so I stayed away.
Anyway, things seems to have improved.
A few random thoughts…
I think the petrol pricewatch is a good idea. It’s worth trying, at least. There is evidence that it’s worked a little bit in WA. Falling petrol prices doesn’t just help motorists – they flow into the inflation figures too. And it warns the oil companies that this government is at least prepared to regulate prices a little bit.
Brendan Nelson is a bit like Simon Crean. He’s an experienced minister who’s taken on the party leadership at a time when it’s suicidal to do so. But if he can push for changes to the party structure, as Crean did, and start the long process of developing new policies and attacting more graasroots members to the Libs, they’ll thank him one day. Mind you, his chances of becoming PM are extremely slim.
The Liberal Party really needs to re-think industrial relations. WorkChoices was a truly absurd policy at a time when there was a labour shortage. What it has created is a younger generation with no loyalty to any employer or any career path, which takes what it can get from a boss and moves on, because there’s no trust in employers. No-one wants to be an apprentice because the pay is crap, and you can earn more labouring or working in a cafe.
Rudd has hardly put a foot wrong since becoming PM. He’s made changes the way Whitlam did – and I do think symbolism is important – but he’s more rational. I agree with one of the other posters that this government could follow the same patterns as states like Queensland, SA and Vic – and have a huge swing TO them at the next election.
Rudd has also picked up on what could be the biggest issue in the world in coming years – the rising price of food, and the effect it will have on global stability and poverty. If Australia plans (particularly with water use and skills training) we can have an agriculture boom after the mining boom.
Dyno,
I mostly agree with your comments @ 528, but, I do think that there will be at least some benefit flowing on from a comprehensive fuel watch system.
For one, many operators who are currently selling at way outside a reasonable profit margin in relation to the Singapore & world spot price, would tend to be much more careful in their pricing arrangements.
The fact that they are being closely monitored and their pricing being available for both consumers and regulators will certainly curtail the rampant price gouging that is currently the case.
I would however, like to see some level of censure and penalty imposed on those who operate outside of community expectations of a fair deal from an industry which is in a monolopy position in the provision of a product that is in some ways, indespensible to much of the community.
Kerry O’Brien interviewing Nelson: rather like kicking a dead dog around the place! I almost feel sorry for Brendan, but the problem is the Tories aren’t cut out for opposition, they have this “born to rule” mentality. It’s my suspicion they will be in the wilderness for a long time to come!
Nostrodamus: mate, your predictions are very unreliable, or is it just wishful thinking on your part?
I think there is going to be a Westpoll re state voting intentions in WA in The West Australian 2mw
If 59% of ALP voters support sunday retail trading (yes we dont have it in WA) and 45% of Coalition voters support it
and the overall support is 51% what does that make WA Labors 2pp? Am i correct in assuming its very bad?
Thats assuming they used 2pp instead of primary votes?
I assume progressive youre referring to tonight?? Why is it that there are so many opposition guests on 730 report, lateline and insiders. This did not happen so much under the previous government. Well done ABC
Antonio Says: @ 531,
[I agree with one of the other posters that this government could follow the same patterns as states like Queensland, SA and Vic – and have a huge swing TO them at the next election.}
If Rudd & Labor’s polling continues to remain above 57% 2PP through to the next election and can maintain the correction in WA that we have just seen, then it is inevitable that Labor will increase its margin.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, we have seen in recent months and looking into the upcoming 30 months, points to any other conclusion. I cannot see this changing.
I shudder to think what the print media will make of Nelson’s effort on the 7.30 Report tonight.
Somehow, I don’t think they will be too kind to him. Any remotely tricky question put to him by Red Kerry was batted back with a basically similar and excruciatingly manner of avoidance.
The Nelson interview was poor television. I learned nothing from it, Kerry is a good interviewer but tonight it was like sticking pins into the voodoo doll, it was ridiclous. Nelson should have not answered many of the inane questions, perhaps he should have declined the interview. What it all achieved was absolutely nothing.
Horatio is a dead duck, when News Limiteds’ journas’ have been told get him and finish him and i don’t care how you do it, much like what happened to Latham.
Are you saying Nelson might have done better on the “Moment of truth” over on Nine?
Antonio @ 531,
Well we will see about petrol pricewatch, but my suspicion is that any benefits will be pretty nebulous. You are right in saying that the main benefit of any laws prohibiting dodgy pricing is that people know they are being watched, however I would still bet that on the important days of the year there will be an uncanny similarity in the prices charged by neighbouring servos. Time will tell.
Agree with you about the absurdity of WorkChoices. Absurd on a policy level, the economy was going great guns, no-one wanted this (including employers). If the agenda was to kill unions, well they were slowly dying anyway, and WC gave them a new (if temporary) burst of relevance. And on a political level, Howard would quite possibly still be PM were it not for that policy. No idea what the Liberals thought they were doing.
RE Costello’s leadership
I’d argue there are two interrelated issues that Costello would have to deal with before he became leader. The first is what his former leader labelled ticker and Costello doesn’t have anything of that, witness his unwillingness to take on Howard. The other issue he’s got to deal with is Turnball and to take him on he’d have to have serious amounts of ticker to do that.
At a personal level I think the Liberal Party would want to commit political suicide giving Costello the leadership. Turnball I could almost be persuaded to vote for, I’d want to see Turnball get the economic policy he was advocating a few years back adopted by the party first, not sure they’d be up for that though.
It would have been good to see Howard on the Moment of Truth… I wonder if he would have told the truth.
To be honest though the commercial stations are provding crap and the ABC is slowly catching up..
Foreign Corresspondent has become not foriegn but news about our near neighbours… Seems like they have no money to travel people anywhere…
[No idea what the Liberals thought they were doing.]
Certainly they learned nothing from the Queensland experience. The National Party Government, around 11 years ago, went into an election proposing a system of Statutory Individual contracts and the abolition of the Award system.
They were soundly defeated and the Beattie Government wound back much of IR Minister, Vince Lester’s provisions that had provided the groundwork for their introduction.
The only remnants of this folly was that a number of Labour Hire firms, set up to take advantage of this regressive system survived but still had to abide by the appropriate Award for their clients.
The people of Queensland still had memories of the previous time a Tory oriented Government had tried to force workers on to individual employment contracts.
It led directly to the establishment of the political arm of the Labour Movement, The ALP.
It was not acceptable in the 1890’s, nor the 1990’s and certainly not in the 2000’s. Howard and the crony’s who pushed this barrow on behalf of a small segment of the Business lobby, were nothing but FOOLS of the highest order.
The libs deserve to serve a long time in purgatory for this folly and they will never get forgiveness for it by me or my family in our lifetimes. Nelson and Bishop can push their modified version of it for all they are worth. They will only entrench Labor to such an extent that they may never regain Government again.
Most developed countries were in awe and extremely envious of Australia’s well developed system of Industrial Awards. What a stupidly, shortsighted act it was to abolish something that on the whole, worked extremely well and underpinned Common law Contracts and Enterprise Bargaining so well.
Nelson & the Libs are in such a bad way that even the Labor Party feels sorry for them and is offering a helping hand with some good advice.
Certainly, Nelson would be well advised to take notice of Simon Crean, who most definitely would know what he is talking about on this subject.
[Trade Minister Simon Crean, a former Opposition Leader of the Labor Party, today offered the suffering Opposition Leader some advice on his future.
Faced with only single digit support and a surging Rudd Government, Brendan Nelson seems all but likely to lose his mantle as the Liberal/National coalition’s leader.
Mr Crean today said that Dr Nelson needed to keep his beliefs, but to not oppose for the sake of Opposition.
“Stick to your guns, but be consistent… if the Government has a good idea, embrace it… don’t oppose just for the sake of opposition,” Mr Crean told Sky News.]
http://www.scopical.com.au/articles/Politics/4564/Crean-offers-leadership-advice-to-Nelson
#542 Scorpio, great post I couldn’t agree more. When will the ideologues wake up to them selves and realise that Aussies don’t want this deregulated work place crap. Just reminding the electorate about Work Choices is enougth to ensure that Labor wins the next election in a landslide.
I’m not convinced that the WA pricewatch scheme will produce the results being claimed.
The best way to reduce prices is by increasing competition. One of the worst decisions the former government made was abandoning the elements of the Petroleum Retail Marketing Sites Act and Petroleum Retail Marketing Franchise Act which limited the number of sites the oil companies could own. They then compounded the error by not extending those provisions to Coles and Woolies.
The result is that the two grocery chains now have 50% of the petrol market and the oil companies control most of the other half through their owned sites.
Unfortunately, getting these powerful companies to divest themselves of such a profitable business is not going to be easy.
OTOH, is making petrol cheaper something that an environmentally aware government should be doing? IMHO, the answer is no, but only if they were prepared to spend billions on building a useable public transport system and limiting urban sprawl.
.
Disclaimer: These days I only do about 5,000km a year in a fuel efficient car so petrol is a minor expense.
Irony of ironies. Howard thought he was stabbing Labor in the back with Workchoices but because of twisted vision couldn’t see until too late that he was actually stabbing his own people through the heart.
Howard coming on the scene again and actually mentioning the economy only reminds us of the inflation and interest he left. In 18 months the irony will be that Rudd will say he has conquered Howard’s inflation. And of course, unless they change, they still have a Workchoices type IR stance.
Howard’s appearance and ‘help’ may only serve to strengthen the likes of Minchin, Andrews, Bishop and the right and heighten the ideological divide in the party. Will the non-hard-right want to go through a Howard type era again, even in opposition where they are ruled over like a king? Howard might just tend to shake up the muddy water again.
The good thing about the WA system is it forces retailers to make the ir pricing decisions without knowing what their competitors plan to do, and then the information is published. So consumers have relevant information at the time they choose to buy. If a retailer makes a wrong guess about pricing, he will lose sales and won’t be able to “correct” his prices until the following day. So the pressure is on the retailer to choose the lowest price consistent with being able to stay in business, rather than opening with high price and then scaling down.
It is a version of the prisoner’s dilemma. A rational choice is to be first with the best price, not last…
Hm, THe Dr’s Union flexing their muscles – wouldn’t have this been illegal under Serfchoices ?
[Doctors issue super clinics warning
15th April 2008, 19:47 WST
Doctors says it is vital existing GP services are not undermined or made non-viable by the introduction of the Rudd government’s “super clinics”.
The federal government has promised to spend $220 million on building one-stop medical centres in the bush and outer suburbs in an effort to improve health care and reduce pressure on hospitals.
The roll-out of the plan is yet to be timetabled but it is understood details will be announced in next month’s federal budget.
Under the proposal, the government will provide capital funding for building clinics in areas where access to primary health care services is poor.
The so-called super clinics would bring GPs and other health professionals and services under one roof and provide space and training facilities.
In order to lure doctors to outer metropolitan and rural areas where there are shortages, the government plans to also offer incentive payments of up to $15,000.
However, the Australian Medical Association (AMA) has urged the government to be careful the introduction of the clinics do not undermine existing services, warning that only a third of the proposed sites are in officially designated areas of workforce shortage.
“The government needs to work with the profession and the community to ensure GP super clinics are located where they are most needed,” AMA president Rosanna Capolingua said]
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=475516
Regarding the Liberals, they should remember that the public were very, very tired of JWH and a majority had been keen to dump him for a long time. There is a lot of goodwill for a new government – especially one that is energetic and capable and delivering on its promises. So the Opposition have to be prepared to wear a probably-long period when the public basically have no reason to be interested in them. They had a long opportunity to do the things that Rudd is now doing and they comprehensively wasted their chances.
People will start to take an interest in them in time, but until then they should take time to reflect on their values and their basic sense of purpose.
In this context, I suspect the deeper problem for the Liberals is that many of them have no great purpose other than seeking to achieve office and rule the roost. Parties have to want to win, but in itself, this is not enough to gain the support of people. This will be the problem with Turnbull. There is no doubt he has ambition enough. But beyond that, what would he really want to do?